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To recover the growing deficit between American and near-peer mobile artillery ranges, the US Army is exploring the use of the M982 Excalibur munition, a family of long-range precision projectiles. This paper aims to analyze the effectiveness of the M982 in comparison to the M795 and M549A1 projectiles to further the understanding of what this new asset contributes.

Based upon doctrinal scenarios for target destruction, a statistical analysis is performed using Monte Carlo simulation to identify a likely probability of kill ratio for the M982. A values-based hierarchical modeling approach is then used to differentiate the M982 from similar-type projectiles quantitatively in terms of several different attributes. Finally, sensitivity analyzes are presented for each of the value attributes, to identify areas where measures may lack robustness in precision.

Based upon a set of seven value measures, such as maximum range, effective range, the expected number of rounds to destroy a target, and the unit cost of a munition, the M982 1a-2 was found to be best suited for engaging point and small area targets. It is noted, however, that the M795 and M549A1 projectiles are likely better munition options for large area targets. Hence, an integrated targeting plan may best optimize the force’s weapon systems against a near-peer adversary.

The findings provide initial evidence that doctrinal adjustments in how the Army uses its artillery systems may be beneficial in facing near-peer adversaries. In addition, the values-based modeling approach offered in this research provides a framework for which similar technological advances may be examined.

Vertical lift (VL) assets are vital and expensive resources in humanitarian missions. What and where supplies are needed evolves in short time following a disaster. The purpose of this paper is to offer analysis to understand the range of capabilities of these assets.

The authors use scenario analysis to investigate the tradeoff between two key capabilities of VL, agility and speed. The authors do this by generating loads and distances randomly, based on historical data. In post hoc analysis, based on different factors, the authors investigate the impact of configuration of Expeditionary Strike Force (ESG) on providing disaster relief.

The authors find the most effective deployment of VL in a HADR mission is in supplying essentials to victims in a focused region. Delivering sustainment requirements leads to substantial shortfall for survival needs. If the configuration of the ESGs were changed for HADR, it would better-meet the demand.

Cargo capacity is modeled assuming every aircraft type was equal, in terms of mean and variance of cargo-capacity utilization. Detailed information on cargo-bay configurations was beyond the scope of our model and data. However, this means the benefit of standardizing cargo load-outs and the variability associated with randomized load-outs may be understated in the results.

The analysis presents decision-makers with projections of VL asset performance in the early stages of disaster relief, to assist in planning and contingency planning.

This research deals exclusively with the most critical but expensive capabilities for HADR: VL. The in-depth analysis illustrates the limitations and benefits of this capability.

The purpose of the present study was the development of a methodology for translating predicted rates of decompression sickness (DCS), following tower escape from a sunken submarine, into predicted probability of survival, a more useful statistic for making operational decisions.

Predictions were made, using existing models, for the probabilities of a range of DCS symptoms following submarine tower escape. Subject matter expert estimates of the effect of these symptoms on a submariner’s ability to survive in benign weather conditions on the sea surface until rescued were combined with the likelihoods of the different symptoms occurring using standard probability theory. Plots were generated showing the dependence of predicted probability of survival following escape on the escape depth and the pressure within the stricken submarine.

Current advice on whether to attempt tower escape is based on avoiding rates of DCS above approximately 5%–10%. Consideration of predicted survival rates, based on subject matter expert opinion, suggests that the current advice might be considered as conservative in the distressed submarine scenario, as DCS rates of 10% are not anticipated to markedly affect survival rates.

According to the authors’ knowledge, this study represents the first attempt to quantify the effect of different DCS symptoms on the probability of survival in submarine tower escape.

The French higher education system has experienced reforms since the 2000s that gradually emphasized the executive power of universities and the centralization of decision-making. This culminated with the excellence initiatives (Idex) that concentrated 7.7 billion euros on only nine institutions to create “world-class” universities and made their leaders responsible for the local allocation of this substantial endowment. The universities’ executives had four years to complete changes in governance in order to see their institution permanently awarded the title and the funding of Idex. The hiring process is one of the elements that this policy impacted the most within these universities, enabling leaders to create new kinds of positions and control the hiring process. However, by looking at the hiring practices within three different Idex, we will show that collegiality did not disappear but rather it evolved: in the three cases, the closest colleagues have been marginalized but decision-making remained collective and in the hands of academics chosen by the university executives. Variations in the intensity of this evolution could be observed according to two dimensions. First, the scientific reputation of the university: the higher it is, the less collegiality is transformed. Second, the level of external pressures: the less collegial universities have relaxed their hiring practices after the evaluation that permanently granted them the label of Idex.

The paper aims to estimates the limitations of a forced distribution performance appraisal system in identifying the highest performing individuals within an organization. Traditionally, manpower modeling allows organizations to develop plans that meet future human resource requirements by modeling the flow of personnel within an organization. The aim is to quantify the limitations of a performance appraisal system in identifying the best-qualified individuals to fill future requirements.

This paper describes an exploratory study using discrete event simulation based on the assignment, evaluation and promotion history of over 2,500 officers in the US Army. The obtained data provide a basis for estimating simulation inputs that include system structure, system dynamics, human behavior and policy constraints. The simulation approach facilitates modeling officers who receive evaluations as they move throughout the system over time.

The paper provides insights into the effect of system structure and system dynamics on the evaluation outcome of employees. It suggests that decreasing the number of a rater’s subordinates has a significant effect on the accuracy of performance appraisals. However, increasing the amount of time individuals spend on each assignment has little effect on system accuracy.

This research allows an organization’s leadership to evaluate the possible consequences associated with evaluation policy prior to policy implementation.

This work advances a framework in assessing the effect of system dynamics and structure, and the extent to which they limit or enhance the accuracy of an organization’s forced distribution performance appraisal system.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the stability of the cost performance index (CPI) for environmental remediation projects as the topic is not addressed in the literature. CPI is defined as the earned value of work performed divided by the actual cost of the work, and CPI stability represents the point in time in a project after which the CPI varies by less than 20 percent (measured in different ways).

After collecting monthly earned value management (EVM) data for 136 environmental remediation projects from a United States federal agency in fiscal years 2012 and 2013, the authors used the nonparametric Wilcoxon signed-rank test to analyze CPI stability. The authors also used nonparametric statistical comparisons to identify any significant relationships between CPI stability and independent variables representing project and contract characteristics.

The CPI for environmental projects did not stabilize until the projects were 41 percent complete with respect to project duration. The most significant factors contributing to CPI stability were categorized into the following managerial insights: contractor qualifications, communication, stakeholder engagement, contracting strategy, competition, EVM factors, and macro project factors.

As CPI stability for environmental remediation projects has not been reported in the literature, this research provides new insights to help project managers understand when the CPIs of environmental remediation projects stabilize and which factors have the most impact on CPI stability.

Cruise traffic has dynamically advanced worldwide over the past two decades. This maritime business and tourism typology is strongly concentrated in several links that comprise the cruise product. With regard to destination regions, the concentration occurs both in the few worldwide destination regions and in the specific ports within a given destination region. Moreover, in a cruise itinerary’s configuration, there is a strong spatial dependence between the ports that comprise it. Taking these into account, the aims of this paper are to identify the current competitive positions of Spanish cruise ports and to explain the different features of the competitive positions obtained.

A sample of 21 Spanish ports is selected to conduct a competitive positioning analysis. The analysis is developed by applying portfolio analysis based on the “growth-share matrix” adapted to the port industry. Moreover, the sample of ports is divided into three groups based on geographical positions of ports on the Spanish coast, and each group is analysed separately.

The three Spanish coastal areas have a behavioural pattern in which few ports concentrate the greater share of the cruising activity. The highest number of competitive positions are mature leader and high potential. In the three Spanish coastal areas, there are ports with these positions. Additionally, there are homeports available in the three coastal areas.

The paper contributes to the research of the cruise industry sector especially from the point of view of cruise ports. The results obtained may be useful to cruise port managers for developing strategies aimed at increasing cruise traffic in a port.

Increased economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has given rise to increased demand for port development. Given the often scarce availability of national public funding, port institutional reform programmes have been implemented to pave the way for the inclusion of external port investors. Notwithstanding this fact, some sub-Saharan African Governments remain institutionally locked into the notion that state-owned enterprises remain an appropriate vehicle for port terminal operations. This, despite the fact that terminal operational concessions globally and within the continent of Africa are increasingly being managed by global terminal operators. Given this context, this study aims to evaluate different port valuation and funding strategies. Two research questions form the core of this research: what is the financial value of a concession? What is the most cost advantageous funding strategy? The methodology is applied to the development of a two-berth container terminal in SSA.

After reviewing a range of financial valuation and funding techniques, the study presents valuation and funding model applicability-fit tests. Thereafter, a suitable valuation technique is selected and applied to the case study providing a concession valuation. Different funding strategies are applied to the valuation model to determine the cost implications of each funding instrument given the local context and institutional constraints applicable to SSA. Finally, the study discusses the significance of the results to potential SSA port investors by highlighting the impact of each funding approach on key financial metrics.

The study presents a range of financial investment appraisal results for the case study concession in consideration of four specific funding strategies. The highest concession valuation could be attributed to a higher debt ratio as a principal funding strategy. In addition, this funding approach (100% debt) realised the shortest payback period and the highest internal rate of return values. The authors, however, maintain that the optimal funding strategy for a concession depends ultimately on the financial goals of the investor.

This research makes a contribution to the existing literature on port finance and development by presenting a structured approach to the evaluation of the valuation and funding techniques, which can be used in terminal development subject to the specific local context and institutional constraints (in this case applicable to SSA). The study provides practical insight into the potential cost of the considered terminal concession for private or public sector participants and a view of the most cost advantageous funding strategy available for interested investors.

This study aims to assess the biodiversity of the study area and estimate the carbon stock of two dry deciduous forest ranges of Banka Forest Division, Bihar, India.

The phytosociological analysis was performed and C stock estimation based on volume determination through nondestructive methods was done.

Phytosociological analysis found total 18,888 [14,893 < 10 cm (diameter at breast height) dbh] and 2,855 (1,783 < 10 cm dbh) individuals at Banka and Bounsi range with basal area of 181,035.00 cm² and 32,743.76 cm², respectively. Importance value index was highest for Shorea robusta in both the ranges. Species diversity index and dominance index, 1.89 and 1.017 at Banka and 1.99 and 5.600 at Bounsi indicated the prevalence of biotic pressure. Decreased dbh and tree height resulted in a lowered growing stock volume as 59,140.40 cm³ ha⁻¹ (Banka) and 71,306.37 cm³ ha⁻¹ (Bounsi). Total C stock at Banka and Bounsi range was 51.8 t ha^-1 and 12.56 t ha⁻¹, respectively where the highest C stock is recorded for Shorea robusta in both the ranges (9.8 t ha⁻¹ and 2.54 t ha^-1, respectively). A positive correlation between volume, total biomass and basal area of tree species with C stock was observed. R² value for Banka range was 0.9269 (volume-C stock), 1 (total biomass-C stock) and 0.647 (basal area-C stock). Strong positive correlation was also established at Bounsi range with R² value of 1. Considering the total forest area enumerated, C sequestration potential was about 194.25 t CO₂ (Banka) and 45.9 t CO₂ (Bounsi). The valuation of C stock was therefore US$2,525.25 (Banka) and US$596.70 (Bounsi).

The research found the potentiality of the study area to sequester carbon. However, for future, the degraded areas would require intervention of management strategies for restoration of degraded lands and protection of planted trees to increase the carbon sequestration potential of the area.

Present study is the first attempt to assess the phytosociology and estimate the regulatory services of forest with respect to biomass and carbon stock estimation for the Banka forest division of Bihar.

This paper analyses container throughput developments in the East Asia container port system. Throughput evolutions and concentration/deconcentration patterns in the multi-range container port system of East Asia are analysed. The paper also provides a more in-depth qualitative analysis of the reasons underlying the observed trends and results. It is demonstrated that the East Asian port system is undergoing major structural shifts in cargo patterns and is witnessing a cargo deconcentration trend as a result of the rise of the Chinese ports and the relative stagnation of the Japanese range.