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A stylized fact in finance literature is the belief in positive relationship between ex ante return and risk. Hence, a rational investor, by utility preference axiom can only consider committing fund in asset which promises commensurate higher return for higher risk. Questions have been asked as to whether this holds true across securities, sectors and markets. Empirical evidence appears less convincing, especially in developing markets. Accordingly, the author investigates the nature of reward for taking risk in the Nigerian Capital Market within the context of individual assets and markets.

The author employed ex post design to collect weekly stock prices of firms listed on the Premium Board of Nigerian Stock Exchange for period 2014–2022 to attempt to answer research questions. Data were analyzed using a unique M Vec TGarch-in-Mean model considered to be robust in handling many assets, and hence portfolio management.

The study found that idea of risk-expected return trade-off is perhaps more general than as depicted by traditional finance literature. The regression revealed that conditional variance and covariance risks reveal minimal or no differences in sign and sizes of coefficients. However, standard errors were also found to be large suggesting somewhat inconclusive evidence of existence of defined incentive structure for taking additional risk in the market.

In terms of choice of methodology and outcomes, this research adds substantial value to body of knowledge. The adapted multivariate model used in this paper is a rare approach especially for management of portfolios in developing markets. Remarkably, the research found empirical evidence that positive risk-expected return trade-off, as known in mainstream literature, is not supported especially using a typical developing country data.

The existing literature offers various perspectives on integrating cryptocurrencies into investment portfolios; yet, there is a gap in understanding the behaviours, attitudes and cross-investment links of individual investors. This study, grounded in the modern portfolio theory and the random walk theory, aims to add empirical insights that are specific to the UK context. It explores four hypotheses related to the influence of socio-demographics, digital adoption, cross-investment behaviours and financial attitudes on cryptocurrency owners.

This study uses a logistic regression model with secondary data from the Financial Lives Survey 2020 to assess the factors impacting cryptocurrency ownership. A total of 29 variables are used, categorized into four groups aligned with the hypotheses. Additionally, hierarchical clustering analysis was conducted to further explore the cross-investment links.

The study reveals a significant lack of diversification among UK cryptocurrency investors, a pronounced inclination towards high-risk investments such as peer-to-peer lending and crowdfunding, and parallels with gambling behaviours, including financial dissatisfaction and a propensity for risk-taking. It highlights the influence of demographic traits, risk tolerance, technological literacy and emotional attitudes on cryptocurrency investment decisions.

This study provides valuable insights into cryptocurrency regulation and retail investor protection, underscoring the necessity for tailored financial education and a holistic regulatory approach for investment products with comparable risk levels, with the aim of minimizing regulatory arbitrage. It significantly enhances our understanding of the unique dynamics of cryptocurrency investments within the evolving financial landscape.

The development of information technologies has led to a considerable transformation in human resource management from conventional or commonly known as personnel management to modern one. Data mining technology, which has been widely used in several applications, including those that function on the web, includes clustering algorithms as a key component. Web intelligence is a recent academic field that calls for sophisticated analytics and machine learning techniques to facilitate information discovery, particularly on the web. Human resource data gathered from the web are typically enormous, highly complex, dynamic, and unstructured. Traditional clustering methods need to be upgraded because they are ineffective. Standard clustering algorithms are enhanced and expanded with optimization capabilities to address this difficulty by swarm intelligence, a subset of nature-inspired computing. We collect the initial raw human resource data and preprocess the data wherein data cleaning, data normalization, and data integration takes place. The proposed K-C-means-data driven cuckoo bat optimization algorithm (KCM-DCBOA) is used for clustering of the human resource data. The feature extraction is done using principal component analysis (PCA) and the classification of human resource data is done using support vector machine (SVM). Other approaches from the literature were contrasted with the suggested approach. According to the experimental findings, the suggested technique has extremely promising features in terms of the quality of clustering and execution time.

Despite its devastating nature, the COVID-19 pandemic has also catalyzed a substantial surge in the adoption and integration of technological tools within economies, exerting a profound influence on the dissemination of information among participants in stock markets. Consequently, this present study delves into the ramifications of post-pandemic dynamics on stock market behavior. It also examines the relationship between investors' sentiments, underlying behavioral drivers and their collective impact on global stock markets.

Drawing upon data spanning from 2012 to 2023 and encompassing major world indices classified by Morgan Stanley Capital International’s (MSCI) market and regional taxonomy, this study employs a threshold regression model. This model effectively distinguishes the thresholds within these influential factors. To evaluate the statistical significance of variances across these thresholds, a Wald coefficient analysis was applied.

The empirical results highlighted the substantive role that investors' sentiments and behavioral determinants play in shaping the predictability of returns on a global scale. However, their influence on developed economies and the continents of America appears comparatively lower compared with the Asia–Pacific markets. Similarly, the regions characterized by a more pronounced influence of behavioral factors seem to reduce their reliance on these factors in the post-pandemic landscape and vice versa. Interestingly, the post COVID-19 technological advancements also appear to exert a lesser impact on developed nations.

This study pioneers the investigation of these contextual dissimilarities, thereby charting new avenues for subsequent research studies. These insights shed valuable light on the contextualized nexus between technology, societal dynamics, behavioral biases and their collective impact on stock markets. Furthermore, the study's revelations offer a unique vantage point for addressing market inefficiencies by pinpointing the pivotal factors driving such behavioral patterns.

The challenge of predicting changes in aggregate income and stock prices is one that has occupied the research agendas of economists. This paper aims to use the consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio to predict future income and stock prices.

To examine the stability of the consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio, the authors run a two-variable, two-lag reduced-form VAR in the vein of Cochrane (1994), using a lag of each respective ratio as exogenous to the VAR. Additionally, the authors estimate an AR(4) model for income and prices.

The consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio remain key to understanding future movements in income and stock prices. The consumption–income ratio significantly predicts future income in the USA, and aggregate income is easier to predict than consumption in the VAR model. The dividend–price ratio does not significantly predict future price growth. Consumption and dividend shocks have lasting impacts on income and prices.

The consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio are still key to understanding future movements in income and stock prices. The consumption–income ratio significantly predicts future income in the USA, and aggregate income is easier to predict than consumption in the VAR model. However, the dividend–price ratio does not significantly predict future price growth, a change from previous research from the 1990s, despite the increasing complexity of stock markets. Consumption and dividend shocks have lasting impacts on income and prices and appear to be significant drivers in both the short- and long-run variance in income and prices.

Communities representing groups of agents with similar interests or functions are one of the essential features of complex networks. Finding communities in real-world networks is critical for analyzing complex systems in various areas ranging from collaborative information to political systems. Given the different characteristics of networks and the capability of community detection in handling a plethora of societal problems, community detection methods represent an emerging area of research. Contributing to this field, the authors propose a new community detection algorithm based on the hybridization of node and link granulation.

The proposed algorithm utilizes a rough set-theoretic concept called closure on networks. Initial sets are constructed by using neighborhood topology around the nodes as well as links and represented as two different categories of granules. Subsequently, the authors iteratively obtain the constrained closure of these sets. The authors use node mutuality and link mutuality as merging criteria for node and link granules, respectively, during the iterations. Finally, the constrained closure subsets of nodes and links are combined and refined using the Jaccard similarity coefficient and a local density function to obtain communities in a binary network.

Extensive experiments conducted on twelve real-world networks followed by a comparison with state-of-the-art methods demonstrate the viability and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

The study also contributes to the ongoing effort related to the application of soft computing techniques to model complex systems. The extant literature has integrated a rough set-theoretic approach with a fuzzy granular model (Kundu and Pal, 2015) and spectral clustering (Huang and Xiao, 2012) for node-centric community detection in complex networks. In contributing to this stream of work, the proposed algorithm leverages the unexplored synergy between rough set theory, node granulation and link granulation in the context of complex networks. Combined with experiments of network datasets from various domains, the results indicate that the proposed algorithm can effectively reveal co-occurring disjoint, overlapping and nested communities without necessarily assigning each node to a community.

This study carries important practical implications for complex adaptive systems in business and management sciences, in which entities are increasingly getting organized into communities (Jacucci et al., 2006). The proposed community detection method can be used for network-based fraud detection by enabling experts to understand the formation and development of fraudulent setups with an active exchange of information and resources between the firms (Van Vlasselaer et al., 2017). Products and services are getting connected and mapped in every walk of life due to the emergence of a variety of interconnected devices, social networks and software applications.

The proposed algorithm could be extended for community detection on customer trajectory patterns and design recommendation systems for online products and services (Ghose et al., 2019; Liu and Wang, 2017). In line with prior research, the proposed algorithm can aid companies in investigating the characteristics of implicit communities of bloggers or social media users for their services and products so as to identify peer influencers and conduct targeted marketing (Chau and Xu, 2012; De Matos et al., 2014; Zhang et al., 2016). The proposed algorithm can be used to understand the behavior of each group and the appropriate communication strategy for that group. For instance, a group using a specific language or following a specific account might benefit more from a particular piece of content than another group. The proposed algorithm can thus help in exploring the factors defining communities and confronting many real-life challenges.

This work is based on a theoretical argument that communities in networks are not only based on compatibility among nodes but also on the compatibility among links. Building up on the aforementioned argument, the authors propose a community detection method that considers the relationship among both the entities in a network (nodes and links) as opposed to traditional methods, which are predominantly based on relationships among nodes only.

This study focuses on listed and over-the-counter (OTC) companies in the Taiwan Stock Exchange. It found that an increase in the ownership proportion of institutional investors (INs), including foreign investors, investment trusts, and dealers can enhance the informativeness of stock prices. The relationship between these factors follows an inverted U-shaped pattern, indicating that excessively high ownership ratios can actually lead to a decrease in the informativeness of stock prices. Additionally, increasing the ownership proportions of foreign investors and investment trusts can reduce the risk of stock price collapse, while dealers show no significant relationship in this regard. This study also reveals that the technical variable of the price deviation rate is an important explanatory factor for post-collapse returns. It is positively correlated with the magnitude of the price decline after a collapse, meaning that stocks with weaker pre-collapse performance experience larger post-collapse declines. When the data during the 2020 pandemic period are excluded, changes in foreign ownership ratios show a significant positive correlation with postcrash returns in both the long and short term. The significant correlation in the short term may be due to a high proportion of foreign ownership. Any reduction in this could put pressure on stock prices, and retail investors may follow suit and sell-off, using foreign investors as a reference. The significant correlation in the long term might be due to foreign investors themselves possibly also trying to avoid the pressure that their own short-term sell-offs could exert on stock prices. The changes in the ownership ratios of investment trusts and dealers indicate that medium and long-term changes have a significant impact on postcrash returns, while the changes in the major players' ownership show no significant correlation. When data from 2020 are included in the analysis, the significance of all INs decreases.

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is regarded as a region with one of the worst cases of armed conflict and climate risk. This paper examines the interactive effect of armed conflict and climate risk on gender vulnerability in SSA.

The difference and system generalised method of movement (GMM) were used to examine the relationship between the variables using annualised data of 35 SSA countries from 1998 to 2019.

The paper found strong evidence that armed conflict and climate change are positive predictors of gender vulnerability. The impact of climate change on gender vulnerability is found to be more direct than indirect.

The direct and indirect positive effect of armed conflict and climate change on gender vulnerability implies that climate change drives gender vulnerability through multiple channels. This underscores the need for a multi-disciplinary policy approach to addressing gender vulnerability problem in SSA.

The study contributes to the climate action debate by highlighting the need for climate action to incorporate gender inclusive policies such as massive investment in infrastructure and safety nets that offer protection to the most vulnerable girls and women affected by armed conflict and climate change. Societies should as a matter of urgency strive to structural barriers that predispose girls and women to biodiversity loss.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-09-2022-0595

This paper aims to apply several data mining techniques for predicting the daily precision improvement of Jakarta Islamic Index (JKII) prices based on big data of symmetric volatility in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market.

This research uses big data mining techniques to predict daily precision improvement of JKII prices by applying the AdaBoost, K-nearest neighbor, random forest and artificial neural networks. This research uses big data with symmetric volatility as inputs in the predicting model, whereas the closing prices of JKII were used as the target outputs of daily precision improvement. For choosing the optimal prediction performance according to the criteria of the lowest prediction errors, this research uses four metrics of mean absolute error, mean squared error, root mean squared error and R-squared.

The experimental results determine that the optimal technique for predicting the daily precision improvement of the JKII prices in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market is the AdaBoost technique, which generates the optimal predicting performance with the lowest prediction errors, and provides the optimum knowledge from the big data of symmetric volatility in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market. In addition, the random forest technique is also considered another robust technique in predicting the daily precision improvement of the JKII prices as it delivers closer values to the optimal performance of the AdaBoost technique.

This research is filling the literature gap of the absence of using big data mining techniques in the prediction process of Islamic stock markets by delivering new operational techniques for predicting the daily stock precision improvement. Also, it helps investors to manage the optimal portfolios and to decrease the risk of trading in global Islamic stock markets based on using big data mining of symmetric volatility.

This research is a pioneer in using big data mining of symmetric volatility in the prediction of an Islamic stock market index.

With the rise in wine consumption, accurate wine price forecasts have significantly impacted restaurant and hotel purchasing decisions and inventory management. This study aims to develop a precise and effective wine price point and interval forecasting model.

The proposed forecast model uses an improved hybrid kernel extreme learning machine with an attention mechanism and a multi-objective swarm intelligent optimization algorithm to produce more accurate price estimates. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt at applying artificial intelligence techniques to improve wine price prediction. Additionally, an effective method for predicting price intervals was constructed by leveraging the characteristics of the error distribution. This approach facilitates quantifying the uncertainty of wine price fluctuations, thus rendering decision-making by relevant practitioners more reliable and controllable.

The empirical findings indicated that the proposed forecast model provides accurate wine price predictions and reliable uncertainty analysis results. Compared with the benchmark models, the proposed model exhibited superiority in both one-step- and multi-step-ahead forecasts. Meanwhile, the model provides new evidence from artificial intelligence to explain wine prices and understand their driving factors.

This study is a pioneering attempt to evaluate the applicability and effectiveness of advanced artificial intelligence techniques in wine price forecasts. The proposed forecast model not only provides useful options for wine price forecasting but also introduces an innovative addition to existing forecasting research methods and literature.