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This study aims to use gray models to predict abnormal stock returns.

Data are collected from listed companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2005-2015. The analyses portray three models, namely, the gray model, the nonlinear gray Bernoulli model and the Nash nonlinear gray Bernoulli model.

Results show that the Nash nonlinear gray Bernoulli model can predict abnormal stock returns that are defined by conditions other than gray models which predict increases, and then after checking regression models, the Bernoulli regression model is defined, which gives higher accuracy and fewer errors than the other two models.

The stock market is one of the most important markets, which is influenced by several factors. Thus, accurate and reliable techniques are necessary to help investors and consumers find detailed and exact ways to predict the stock market.

The theoretical debate of corruption's impact on economic growth remains unsettled, making it an empirical question. This study aims to investigate corruption's effect on BRICS countries' economic growth.

A panel dataset on BRICS countries spanning 1996 to 2020 was used. Bias-corrected estimators in small dynamic panels were employed to estimate a growth model as a linear-quadratic function of corruption that accounts for cross-sectional dependence, endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity due to country and time-specific characteristics.

The results indicate that corruption is detrimental to economic growth in BRICS countries; the quadratic relationship implies corruption is less prevalent in some countries than others. Thus, governments of BRICS countries are encouraged to embark on anti-corruption policies to boost their economic performance.

An important limitation of corruption studies is the difficulty in measuring real corruption experiences due to the secretive nature of corruption and the fact that corruption is known not to leave a paper trail. For the uncertainty of the index estimates, the analysis used a continuous corruption composite score measuring the standard deviation of the extent to which public power is exercised for public gain. Furthermore, estimation and inference are robust to small dynamic panels with a general form of cross-sectional dependence.

The international trade literature has established that export product diversification lowers export product revenue instability. The current analysis investigates whether this finding carries over services exports.

The empirical analysis covers a sample of 152 countries over the period 1980–2014 and employs the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) approach.

The empirical findings indicate that services export diversification reduces services export revenue instability both over the full sample as well as over sub-samples of high-income countries (HICs), least developed countries (LDCs) as well as developing countries (i.e. non-HICs) that are not LDCs. HICs appear to experience a higher positive effect of services export diversification on services export revenue instability than in developing countries. The analysis also shows that countries that further open-up to international trade enjoy a greater reducing effect of services export diversification on the instability of services export revenue.

This analysis, therefore, adds to the existing studies on the relationship between export product diversification and the instability of revenue derived from goods exports by focusing on the services export side. An important message from the analysis is that countries that diversify their services export basket enjoy lower services export revenue instability when they further integrate into the world trade market.

This study highlights the importance of services export diversification, including for stabilizing services export revenue to services traders. Diversifying services export items, including across traditional and modern services sectors involves the implementation of a wide range of policies and measures, of which the liberalization of the services sectors through reduction and eventually the elimination of services trade barriers; the improvement of the business environment and the development of domestic financial markets (see for example, Hoekman, 2017). It could be interesting that another study consider policies and measures that could promote services export diversification.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time this topic is being addressed, including empirically.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) offering FinTech services. This study contributes to the existing literature on microfinance digitalization, financial inclusion and sustainable development. The study also takes into consideration a behavioral perspective through the efficiency evaluation process of MFIs offering FinTech services.

The following study employs the Stochastic Frontier Analysis approach to estimate the operational and social efficiency scores of the 387 MFIs over the period 2005–2019. Then, it tries to consider factors influencing MFIs' efficiency and assess their effects. Hence, two separate models for operation and social efficiency introducing a set of factors, including FinTech proxies and overconfidence proxies, are tested. The first model for operational efficiency uses a random-effects estimator while the second one for social efficiency uses a fixed-effects estimator.

The results show that innovative MFIs have weaker averages of operational efficiency than non-innovative ones but higher averages of social efficiency. This was justified by the fact that innovative MFIs are more socially oriented. Further, findings of this study depict that the proxies of FinTech affect negatively the level of operational efficiency of MFIs. They also depict a negative relationship between FinTech proxies and the level of social efficiency. These results hold through robustness tests.

The highlight of this study is that it takes heed of the indirect effect of technological innovation on the efficiency of MFIs. It has been proved that it moderates the impact of managerial overconfidence (manifested by excessive risk-taking, viz., high levels of PAR30, LGR and NIM) on the level of both operational and social efficiencies.

本文旨在對提供金融科技服務的微型金融機構的表現作出評價。我們的研究, 就現有之學術文獻而言, 在以下課題之探討上作出了貢獻: 微型金融的數字化、普惠金融、以及可持續發展。本研究亦以行為主義觀點, 對微型金融機構提供之金融科技服務的效率作出評價。

本研究使用隨機邊界分析法的理念, 去估計有關的387間微型金融機構於2005年至2019年期間、經營方面和社會方面的效率分數; 繼而嘗試找出影響微型金融機構效率的因素, 並評估這些因素的影響。為此目的, 研究人員分別測試兩個模型, 一個是探究運作方面的效率, 另一個則探究社會方面的效率。兩個模型內均放入一系列的因素, 其中包括金融科技代理和過度自信代理。探究運作方面的效率的模型使用了隨機效果估算器, 而探究社會方面的效率的模型則使用了固定效果估算器。

研究結果顯示、具創新精神的微型金融機構, 在運作方面的效率的平均值上,較沒具創新精神的為弱, 而社會方面的效率的平均值卻較高。這個結果是合理的, 因為具創新精神的微型金融機構會更著眼於社會。另外, 研究結果描繪了一個現象, 就是: 金融科技代理會對微型金融機構的運作效率水平產生負面影響; 我們也看到、金融科技代理與社會方面的效率水平之間的關聯是負面的; 這些研究結果、均通過穩健性檢驗。

本研究最突出之處為研究人員關注科技之創新會間接影響微型金融機構的效率。研究人員證明了於微型金融機構整合金融科技服務是會緩和管理上的過度自信給運作和社會兩方面的效率水平帶來的影響 (管理上的過度自信、顯露於過度的風險承擔, 即是, PAR30(貸款組合風險-30日)、LGR(貸款增長率) 和NIM(淨息差) 處於高水平)。

The study aims to analyze the roles of poverty and African American status in terms of vulnerability to tornado damages and barriers to recovery afterward.

Using five decades of county-level data on tornadoes, the authors test whether economic damages from tornadoes are correlated with vulnerability (proxied by poverty and African American status) and wealth (proxied by median income and educational attainment), controlling for tornado risk. A multinomial logistic difference-in-difference (DID) estimator is used to analyze long-run effects of tornadoes in terms of displacement (reduced proportions of the poor and African Americans), abandonment (increased proportions of those groups) and neither or both.

Controlling for tornado risk, poverty and African American status are linked to greater tornado damages, as is wealth. Absent tornadoes, displacement and abandonment are both more likely to occur in urban settings and communities with high levels of vulnerability, while abandonment is more likely to occur in wealthy communities, consistent with on-going forces of segregation. Tornado damages significantly increase abandonment in vulnerable communities, thereby increasing the prevalence of poor African Americans in those communities. Therefore, the authors conclude that tornadoes contribute to on-going processes generating inequality by poverty/race.

The current paper is the first study connecting tornado damages to race and poverty. It is also the first study finding that tornadoes contribute to long-term processes of segregation and inequality.

In this study the authors aim to comprehensively investigate the determinants of voting behavior in Turkey, with a specific focus on the dynamics of the center-periphery debate. Mainly, the authors focus on regional voting patterns during the period that is dominated by the Justice and Development Party (JDP/AKP) in the elections. The authors apply the random effects generalized least squares (GLS) methodology, and analyze electoral data covering four pivotal parliamentary elections (2007, 2011, 2015 and 2018) across all 81 provinces (NUTS III regions). The authors individually examine voting dynamics of the four major parties in parliament: the JDP/AKP, the Republican People's Party (RPP/CHP), the Nationalist Movement Party (NMP/MHP) and the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP/HDP). The authors contribute to a comprehensive understanding of how socioeconomic cleavages, economic performance, party alignment and social dynamics shape voter preferences in the Turkish context, thereby addressing gaps in the existing literature.

This research employs an ecological study of Turkish NUTS III sub-regions, covering national elections from 2007 to 2018. The authors utilize the random effects GLS method to account for heteroscedasticity and time effects. The inclusion of the June and November 2015 elections enables a comprehensive analysis of the evolving dynamics in Turkish voting behavior. The results remain robust when applying pooled OLS and fixed effect OLS techniques for control.

The study's findings reveal that economic performance, specifically economic growth, plays a pivotal role in the sustained dominance of the JDP/AKP party. Voters closely associate JDP preference with economic growth, resulting in higher voting shares during periods of economic prosperity. Along with economic growth; share of agriculture in regions' GDP, female illiteracy rate, old population rate, net domestic migration, terrorism and party alignment are also influential factors in the Turkish case. Furthermore, differences among sociocultural groups, and East–West dichotomy seem to be important factors that reveal the impact of social cleavages to understand electoral choice in Turkey.

This study contributes to the existing literature by offering a comprehensive multidimensional analysis of electoral behavior in Turkey, focusing on the JDP/AKP dominance period. The main contribution of this study is its multidimensional perspective on the power bases of all main parties, considering key voter choice theories (cleavages, party alignment and retrospective economic performance voting) that have not been systematically analyzed in prior research. The main research question of this study is to examine which factors affect voting behavior in Turkey and how the dynamics of center-periphery or eastern-western region voting behavior under the JDP hegemony can be explained. The contribution of this study consists not only in its empirical testing of panel data approaches but also in its comprehensive analysis of four major political parties. Building upon existing studies in the literature, this research seeks to extend the understanding of voting dynamics for the four main parties in the parliament — JDP/AKP, RPP/CHP, NMP/MHP and PPDP/HDP — by delving into their dynamics individually, thereby expanding the scope of previous studies. This study aims to make a contribution by not only empirically testing panel data approaches but also conducting a comprehensive analysis of four major political parties. Furthermore, the separate inclusion of the 2015 elections and utilization of a panel data approach enrich the analysis by capturing the evolving dynamics of Turkish voting behavior. The study underscores the significance of socioeconomic factors, economic performance and social cleavages for voters' choices within the context of a dominant party rule.

This paper investigates the effect of the volatility of resource revenue on the volatility of non-resource revenue.

The empirical analysis has utilized an unbalanced panel data set comprising 54 countries over the period 1980–2015. The two-step system generalized methods of moments (GMM) is the main economic approach used to carry out the empirical analysis.

Results show that resource revenue volatility generates lower non-resource revenue volatility only when the share of resource revenue in total public revenue is lower than 18%. Otherwise, higher resource revenue volatility would result in a rise in non-resource revenue volatility.

In light of the adverse effect of volatility of non-resource revenue on public spending, and hence on economic growth and development prospects, countries whose total public revenue is highly dependent on resource revenue should adopt appropriate policies to ensure the rise in non-resource revenue, as well as the stability of the latter.

Economic diversification in resource-rich countries (particularly in developing countries among them) could contribute to reducing the dependence of economies on natural resources, and hence the dependence of public revenue on resource revenue. Therefore, policies in favour of economic diversification would contribute to stabilizing non-resource revenue, which is essential for financing development needs.

To the best of our knowledge, this topic has not been addressed in the literature.

This paper makes a novel attempt to estimate the potential impact of credit risk on foreign direct investment (FDI hereafter), thereby focusing on a completely unexplored area in the existing empirical literature.

To provide a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between credit risk and FDI inflows, the study incorporates all the eight-member economies of the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC hereafter) and analyzes a panel data set, over the period 2011 to 2019, extracted from the World Development Indicators, using the suitable econometric techniques for the efficient estimations of the specified models.

The results indicate a negative and statistically significant relationship between the credit risk of the banking sectors and FDI inflows. Similarly, market size and inflation rate appear to be the two other main factors behind the increasing FDI inflows in the SAARC member economies. Interestingly, the size of the market became irrelevant in attracting FDI inflows when the Indian economy is excluded from the sample due to its higher economic weight. On the other hand, FDI inflows are not dependent on the level of trade openness, with most of the specifications showing either an insignificant or negative coefficient of the variable.

The obtained results are unique and robust to alternative methodologies, and hence, the SAARC economies could consider them as the critical inputs in formulating the appropriate policies on FDI inflows.

The findings are unique and original. The authors have established a relationship between credit risk and FDI for the first time in the SAARC context.

This paper aims to determine what the brand performance consequences of corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities would be during times of recession for well-known brands.

Based on signaling theory, this paper investigates if CSR activities serve to signal higher brand value for consumers via perceptions of better quality and greater differentiation, specifically during recessions. This study incorporates a representative longitudinal sample of known US firms for the analyses, which is accomplished through generalized method of moments estimations.

The findings empirically demonstrate that CSR initiatives during recessions are actually associated with increased perceptions of brand value. More specifically, during recessions, CSR initiatives such as charitable contributions provide a signal to customers of higher brand quality.

This study did not control for the costs of doing specific CSR activities that may be less visible to consumers.

While individual firms or managers may not be able to prevent recessions from happening, they can limit the negative impact of recessions on their performance by engaging in CSR activities (or refrain from cutting back) during these times.

Because CSR initiatives during recessions result in more favorable consumer perceptions of the brand, engaging in CSR aligns both social and managerial interests, owing to the economic gains from CSR investments.

During times of recession, some critics indicate that CSR may be an unaffordable luxury. On the contrary, this research shows that managers may want to consider CSR activities as a means of increasing the value of their brands, especially during economic recessions.

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether cross-country differences in pensionable age explain such differences in economic activity of people at near-retirement age.

The empirical study uses regression models for macro-panel encompassing 21 European countries in the period 2008–2014.

Empirical results indicate that pensionable age is a determinant of cross-country differences in employment rate in the near-retirement age group, and less a factor differentiating average effective retirement age. It turns out that other factors matter, including salaries and wages as percentage of GDP (treated as a proxy for the occupational composition of populations across the countries studied), self-employment, participation in education and training, or self-perceived health.

The problem of economic activity at the near-retirement age is complex and cannot be limited to legal regulations concerning pensionable age. The policy aiming at stimulating the economic activity of the near-elderly should include actions on many sides including labour market, pension system, education, training, or health care.

The results complement studies based on the single-country approach and demonstrate that pensionable age does not account for cross-country differences in terms of average effective age of retirement when controlling for other factors. Moreover, factors differentiating effective retirement age and employments rates across countries studied are not similar.