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This study aims to examine smallholder farmers’ perceptions toward the adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) in smallholder farmers in the Upper Blue Nile Highlands of Ethiopia. Available research focused on profitability and economic constraints alone, disregarding the farmers’ perception of the adoption of CSA innovations. There is relatively little empirical work on farmers’ perceptions of innovations. Hence, a critical research gap that will strengthen CSA innovation research and practice includes understanding farmers’ perceptions about CSA innovations and how these perceptions interact with their adoption.

A cross-sectional household survey was conducted among 424 smallholder farmers selected from five agro-ecosystems. A structured questionnaire was used to collect primary data and a review of literature and documents was used to collect secondary data. The study used a multivariate probit model to examine perception factors affecting the likelihood of adopting multiple CSA innovations. The dependent variables were eight CSA innovations, while the independent variables were crafted from the three pillars of CSA.

Major CSA innovations adopted by farmers include improved variety, crop residue management, crop rotation, compost, row planting, soil and water conservation, intercropping and agroforestry. Farmers’ perception toward CSA innovations includes: CSA innovations sustainably increase productivity and income; enhance soil fertility; diversify livestock feed and energy sources; reduce soil erosion, weed infestation and crop failure; enhance soil organic matter, reduce chemical fertilizer use and rehabilitate land. Farmers’ positive perceptions of the benefits of CSA innovations for increasing crop productivity, reducing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and lowering farm greenhouse gas emissions have boosted adoption.

Farmers’ perceptions toward CSA innovations must be enhanced to increase the adoption of CSA innovations in the smallholder agriculture system. The CSA innovation scale-up strategies should focus on farmers’ perception of CSA innovation benefits toward food security, climate change adaption and mitigation outcomes. Awareness of CSA needs the close collaboration of public extension as well as local institutions such as farmers’ training centers.

The study adopts a multivariate probit model that models farmers’ simultaneous CSA innovation choices. Hence, this study contributes to the literature in four significant areas. First, it argues for differential treatment of the perception of smallholder farmers about innovations is needed. Second, it recognizes the interdependence of the adoption of innovations. Third, it directly assesses the farmers’ perception, while others use proxies to measure it. Finally, there are limited or no studies that address the perception of innovations within the lens of adopter perception theory.

This study’s fundamental objective is to assess climate change impact on reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) patterns in Egypt under the latest shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) of climate change scenarios. Additionally, the study considered the change in the future solar radiation and actual vapor pressure and predicted them from historical data, as these factors significantly impact changes in the ET_o.

The study utilizes data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to analyze reference ET_o. Six models are used, and an ArcGIS tool is created to calculate the monthly average ET_o for historical and future periods. The tool considers changes in actual vapor pressure and solar radiation, which are the primary factors influencing ET_o.

The research reveals that monthly reference ET_o in Egypt follows a distinct pattern, with the highest values concentrated in the southern region during summer and the lowest values in the northern part during winter. This disparity is primarily driven by mean air temperature, which is significantly higher in the southern areas. Looking ahead to the near future (2020–2040), the data shows that Aswan, in the south, continues to have the highest annual ET_o, while Kafr ash Shaykh, in the north, maintains the lowest. This pattern remains consistent in the subsequent period (2040–2060). Additionally, the study identifies variations in ET_o , with the most significant variability occurring in Shamal Sina under the SSP585 scenario and the least variability in Aswan under the SSP370 scenario for the 2020–2040 time frame.

This study’s originality lies in its focused analysis of climate change effects on ET_o, incorporating crucial factors like actual vapor pressure and solar radiation. Its significance becomes evident as it projects ET_o patterns into the near and distant future, providing indispensable insights for long-term planning and tailored adaptation strategies. As a result, this research serves as a valuable resource for policymakers and researchers in need of in-depth, region-specific climate change impact assessments.