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1 – 10 of 268After the 2008 global financial crisis, the world has been through an improving economic integration. The scale of RMB cross-border transaction flows expands as well. Countries…
Abstract
After the 2008 global financial crisis, the world has been through an improving economic integration. The scale of RMB cross-border transaction flows expands as well. Countries around China are gradually accepting the RMB as a means of trading and investing. Nowadays, the phenomenon of RMB substitutes the currencies of neighboring countries has become more and more widespread. As a frontier region for China's opening up to the outside world, Hong Kong's financial market is highly transparent with perfect infrastructures. The completion of the Hong Kong offshore RMB market leads to a rise of the RMB stock in Hong Kong, so there is a clear phenomenon of RMB substituting Hong Kong dollars (HKDs) in Hong Kong. This paper studies the substitution effect of RMB and HKD from both theoretical and empirical aspects, and puts forward policy recommendations based on the research results.
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Ike Mathur and Soumen De
The Dim Sum bond market in Hong Kong, which allows China to regulate the amount of offshore yuans that flow back into the mainland, has grown steadily since its inception in 2007…
Abstract
The Dim Sum bond market in Hong Kong, which allows China to regulate the amount of offshore yuans that flow back into the mainland, has grown steadily since its inception in 2007 and is expected to surpass in 2013 the threshold level that would attract insurers and long-term issuers to the market. Yet, the market has not matured sufficiently relative to the yuan deposit market in Hong Kong that has grown at a much faster pace on account of trade liberalization and the use of yuans in China’s international trade settlements. Even though Hong Kong has fulfilled its role as an offshore currency center for the yuan, it is being challenged by Taiwan, Singapore, and London in terms of being the premier location for the issuance of yuan-denominated bonds outside of Mainland China.
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The RMB Internationalization has a great impact on China’s domestic economy. This chapter applies the Gap Estimation approach to estimate the RMB overseas circulation amount from…
Abstract
The RMB Internationalization has a great impact on China’s domestic economy. This chapter applies the Gap Estimation approach to estimate the RMB overseas circulation amount from 1997 to 2015, as the indicator of RMB internationalization. Using the recently developed Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) method for the model identification and contemporaneous causality analysis. The structural vector auto regression (SVAR) model is constructed between the economic indicators (the interest rate, the CPI, and the exchange rate) and the RMB overseas circulation. The dynamic relationship and degree of mutual influence are further studied between the economic indicators and overseas circulation. The results show that there exist contemporaneous causalities of “from RMB overseas circulation to inflation rate,” “from exchange rate to overseas circulation,” and “from exchange rate to the inflation rate.” The influence of interest rate adjustment on macro economy presents the time lag effect. The internationalization of the RMB encourages the currency appreciation. The China’s Central Bank passively looses monetary policy to meet the needs of internationalization and reduce the shock of the international hot money, thereby further deepening the domestic inflation.
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Guonan Ma and Robert N McCauley
The renminbi (RMB) has evolved in four phases since its mid-2005 unpegging from the US dollar. After a year's transition, the RMB's effective exchange rate traded for two years…
Abstract
The renminbi (RMB) has evolved in four phases since its mid-2005 unpegging from the US dollar. After a year's transition, the RMB's effective exchange rate traded for two years within narrow bands around an appreciating trend. That is, the RMB behaved as if it were managed to strengthen gradually against trading partners’ currencies. This experiment was interrupted in mid-2008 and the RMB stabilized against a strong dollar amidst the global financial crisis. If Chinese policy were to return to effective currency stability and other East Asian countries were to pursue similar policies, regional currency stability would be enhanced. That would create more favorable conditions for an evolution towards monetary cooperation.
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Hung-Gay Fung, Derrick Tzau and Jot Yau
This chapter provides a review of the Chinese government policies that promote the internationalization of the Chinese currency, the renminbi or RMB, which include the RMB swap…
Abstract
This chapter provides a review of the Chinese government policies that promote the internationalization of the Chinese currency, the renminbi or RMB, which include the RMB swap arrangements between the central banks, trading of the RMB across different markets, and establishment of the dim sum bond market. In particular, we update the development of the dim sum bond market in terms of the size, amount of the issues, coupon and tenor characteristics, issuers, and investment bankers of dim sum bond issues. The dim sum bond market appears to be a promising global asset class for investors.
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Zsuzsa R. Huszár, Ruth S. K. Tan and Weina Zhang
This study seeks to explore the presence and the relative strength of market efficiency in the onshore and offshore Renminbi (RMB) forward markets.
Abstract
Purpose
This study seeks to explore the presence and the relative strength of market efficiency in the onshore and offshore Renminbi (RMB) forward markets.
Methodology/approach
In the onshore and offshore foreign exchange markets, the RMB forward contracts are designed in similar ways. However, the underlying economic forces and regulatory frameworks are very different in these two markets. We first analyze the functioning of each market, by examining the covered interest rate parity (CIRP) conditions. Second, we explore the CIRP deviations in the two markets and quantify the role of market frictions and government interventions.
Findings
We find that the CIRP condition does not hold in either the onshore or the offshore RMB forward markets. We also find that the offshore market is more efficient than the onshore market in conveying private information about investors’ expectation.
Originality/value
Our results reveal that the onshore RMB forward market provides an imperfect platform for investors to manage their currency exposures. We suggest that by opening the offshore market to domestic participants and the onshore market to more foreigners, the forward rates may become more informative with a greater investor mix. These liberalization efforts are important steps in the right directions to improve market efficiency in the Chinese FOREX market.
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Yin-Wong Cheung and XingWang Qian
We study the empirical determinants of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) covered interest differential. The canonical macroeconomic variables including capital flight and the factors…
Abstract
We study the empirical determinants of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) covered interest differential. The canonical macroeconomic variables including capital flight and the factors that affect country risk, and a few China-specific regulatory and institutional factors are considered. It is found that the effects of these canonical macroeconomic variables on the RMB covered interest differential are largely consistent with those reported in the literature. Further, the covered interest differential was affected by China's general capital control policy and its exchange rate reform program, but not its political risk index. The effects of these explanatory variables on the covered interest differential appear to work mainly via the forward premium rather than the interest rate differential component. The results are largely the same across the onshore and offshore RMB forward rates that cover different sample periods.
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Lei Xu and Chien-Ting Lin
China's accession to World Trade Organization (WTO) opened its financial markets to foreign banks in December 2006. In addition to foreign banks’ expertise and experience in…
Abstract
China's accession to World Trade Organization (WTO) opened its financial markets to foreign banks in December 2006. In addition to foreign banks’ expertise and experience in modern banking activities, they also appear to have the interest, competitiveness, and regulatory advantages of competing with Chinese banks in the traditional Renminbi (RMB) business. Such competition will lead to a loss of RMB deposits and loans from local banks. Given that Chinese banks are currently ridden with large non-performing loans and low capital adequacy, the foreign bank entry will exert further pressure on the banks’ profitability and solvency. Without larger regular bailouts from the central government and fundamental changes on the roles of Chinese banks, China may experience a banking crisis in the post-WTO era. We propose two types of policy changes that may improve banks’ competitiveness and reduce the likelihood of a banking crisis.