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Despite the importance of demand forecasting in retail industry, its influence on supply chain agility has not been sufficiently examined. From a total information technology (IT) capability perspective, the purpose of this paper is to examine the antecedent of supply chain agility through retail demand forecasting.

Combining the literature reviews, the quantitative method of algorithm analysis was targeted at, and the firm data were processed on MATLAB.

This paper summarizes IT dimensions of demand forecasting in retail industry and distinguishes the relationship of supply chain agility and demand forecasting from an IT capability view.

Managers can derive a better understanding and measurement of operating activities that appropriately balance among supply chain agility, IT capability and demand forecast practice. Demand forecasting should be integrated into the firm operations to determine the agility level of supply chain in marketplace.

This paper constructs new theoretical grounds for research into the relationship of demand forecasting-supply chain agility and provides an empirical assessment of the essential components for the means to prioritize IT-supply chain.

Climate change-induced weather changes are severe and frequent, making it difficult to predict apparel sales. The primary goal of this study was to assess consumers' responses to winter apparel searches when external stimuli, such as weather, calendars and promotions arise and to develop a decision-making tool that allows apparel retailers to establish sales strategies according to external stimuli.

The theoretical framework of this study was the effect of external stimuli, such as calendar, promotion and weather, on seasonal apparel search in a consumer's decision-making process. Using weather observation data and Google Trends over the past 12 years, from 2008 to 2020, consumers' responses to external stimuli were analyzed using a classification and regression tree to gain consumer insights into the decision process. The relative importance of the factors in the model was determined, a tree model was developed and the model was tested.

Winter apparel searches increased when the average, maximum and minimum temperatures, windchill, and the previous day's windchill decreased. The month of the year varies depending on weather factors, and promotional sales events do not increase search activities for seasonal apparel. However, sales events during the higher-than-normal temperature season triggered search activity for seasonal apparel.

Consumer responses to external stimuli were analyzed through classification and regression trees to discover consumer insights into the decision-making process to improve stock management because climate change-induced weather changes are unpredictable.

Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the primary forecast evaluation metric in hospitality and tourism research; however its main shortcoming is that it is asymmetric. The asymmetry occurs due to over or under forecasts that introduce bias into forecast evaluation. This study aims to explore the nature of asymmetry and designs a new measure, one that reduces the asymmetric properties while maintaining MAPE’s scale-free and intuitive interpretation characteristics.

The study proposes and tests a new forecasting accuracy measure for hospitality revenue management (RM). A computer simulation is used to assess and demonstrate the problem of asymmetry when forecasting with MAPE, and the new measures’ (MSapeMER, that is, Mean of Selectively applied Absolute Percentage Error or Magnitude of Error Relative to the estimate) ability to reduce it. The MSapeMER’s effectiveness is empirically validated by using a large set of hotel forecasts.

The study demonstrates the ability of the MSapeMER to reduce the asymmetry bias generated by MAPE. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that MSapeMER is more effective than previous attempts to correct for asymmetry bias. The results show via simulation and empirical investigation that the error metric is more stable and less swayed by the presence of over and under forecasts.

It is recommended that hospitality RM researchers and professionals adopt MSapeMER when using MAPE to evaluate forecasting performance. The MSapeMER removes the potential bias that MAPE invites due to its calculation and presence of over and under forecasts. Therefore, forecasting evaluations may be less affected by the presence of over and under forecasts and their ability to bias forecasting results.

Hospitality RM should adopt this measure when MAPE is used, to reduce biased decisions driven by the “asymmetry of MAPE.”

The MAPE error metric exhibits an asymmetry problem, and this paper proposes a more effective solution to reduce biased results with two major methodological contributions. It is first to systematically study the characteristics of MAPE’s asymmetry, while proposing and testing a measure that considerably reduces the amount of asymmetry. This is a critical contribution because MAPE is the primary forecasting metric in hospitality and tourism studies. The second methodological contribution is a procedure developed to “quantify” the asymmetry. The approach is demonstrated and allows future research to compare asymmetric characteristics among various accuracy measures.

Supply chains must rebuild for resilience to respond to challenges posed by systemwide disruptions. Unlike past disruptions that were narrow in impact and short-term in duration, the Covid pandemic presented a systemic disruption and revealed shortcomings in responses. This study outlines an approach to rebuilding supply chains for resilience, integrating innovation in areas critical to supply chain management.

The study is based on extensive debates among the authors and their peers. The authors focus on three areas deemed fundamental to supply chain resilience: (1) forecasting, the starting point of supply chain planning, (2) the practices of supply chain risk management and (3) product design, the starting point of supply chain design. The authors’ debated and pooled their viewpoints to outline key changes to these areas in response to systemwide disruptions, supported by a narrative literature review of the evolving research, to identify research opportunities.

All three areas have evolved in response to the changed perspective on supply chain risk instigated by the pandemic and resulting in systemwide disruptions. Forecasting, or prediction generally, is evolving from statistical and time-series methods to human-augmented forecasting supplemented with visual analytics. Risk management has transitioned from enterprise to supply chain risk management to tackling systemic risk. Finally, product design principles have evolved from design-for-manufacturability to design-for-adaptability. All three approaches must work together.

The authors outline the evolution in research directions for forecasting, risk management and product design and present innovative research opportunities for building supply chain resilience against systemwide disruptions.

This study aims to predict overnight stays in Italy at tourist accommodation facilities through a nonlinear, single factor, stochastic model called CIR#. The contribution of this study is twofold: in terms of forecast accuracy and in terms of parsimony (both from the perspective of the data and the complexity of the modeling), especially when a regular pattern in the time series is disrupted. This study shows that the CIR# not only performs better than the considered baseline models but also has a much lower error than other additional models or approaches reported in the literature.

Typically, tourism demand tends to follow regular trends, such as low and high seasons on a quarterly/monthly level and weekends and holidays on a daily level. The data set consists of nights spent in Italy at tourist accommodation establishments as collected on a monthly basis by Eurostat before and during the COVID-19 pandemic breaking regular patterns.

Traditional tourism demand forecasting models may face challenges when massive amounts of search intensity indices are adopted as tourism demand indicators. In addition, given the importance of accurate forecasts, many studies have proposed novel hybrid models or used various combinations of methods. Thus, although there are clear benefits in adopting more complex approaches, the risk is that of dealing with unwieldy models. To demonstrate how this approach can be fruitfully extended to tourism, the accuracy of the CIR# is tested by using standard metrics such as root mean squared errors, mean absolute errors, mean absolute percentage error or average relative mean squared error.

The CIR# model is notably simpler than other models found in literature and does not rely on black box techniques such as those used in neural network (NN) or data science-based models. The carried analysis suggests that the CIR# model outperforms other reference predictions in terms of statistical significance of the error.

The proposed model stands out for being a viable option to the Holt–Winters (HW) model, particularly when dealing with irregular data.

The proposed model has demonstrated superiority even when compared to other models in the literature, and it can be especially useful for tourism stakeholders when making decisions in the presence of disruptions in data patterns.

The novelty lies in the fact that the proposed model is a valid alternative to the HW, especially when the data are not regular. In addition, compared to many existing models in the literature, the CIR# model is notably simpler and more transparent, avoiding the “black box” nature of NN and data science-based models.

一般来说, 旅游需求往往遵循规律的趋势, 例如季度/月的淡季和旺季, 以及日常的周末和假期。该数据集包括欧盟统计局在打破常规模式的2019冠状病毒病大流行之前和期间每月收集的在意大利旅游住宿设施度过的夜晚。

本研究旨在通过一个名为cir#的非线性单因素随机模型来预测意大利游客住宿设施的过夜住宿情况。这项研究的贡献是双重的:在预测准确性方面和在简洁方面(从数据和建模复杂性的角度来看), 特别是当时间序列中的规则模式被打乱时。我们表明, cir#不仅比考虑的基线模型表现更好, 而且比文献中报告的其他模型或方法具有更低的误差。

当大量搜索强度指标被作为旅游需求指标时, 传统的旅游需求预测模型将面临挑战。此外, 鉴于准确预测的重要性, 许多研究提出了新的混合模型或使用各种方法的组合。因此, 尽管采用更复杂的方法有明显的好处, 但风险在于处理难使用的模型。为了证明这种方法能有效地扩展到旅游业, 使用RMSE、MAE、MAPE或AvgReIMSE等标准指标来测试cir#的准确性。

cir#模型明显比文献中发现的其他模型简单, 并且不依赖于黑盒技术, 例如在神经网络或基于数据科学的模型中使用的技术。所进行的分析表明, cir#模型在误差的统计显著性方面优于其他参考预测。

这个模型作为Holt-Winters模型的一个拟议模型, 特别是在处理不规则数据时。

即使与文献中的其他模型相比, 所提出的模型也显示出优越性, 并且在数据模式中断时对旅游利益相关者做出决策特别有用。

创新之处在于所提出的模型是Holt-Winters模型的有效替代方案, 特别是当数据不规律时。此外, 与文献中的许多现有模型相比, cir#模型明显更简单、更透明, 避免了神经网络和基于数据科学的模型的“黑箱”性质。

Normalmente, la demanda turística tiende a seguir tendencias regulares, como temporadas altas y bajas a nivel trimestral/mensual y fines de semana y festivos a nivel diario. El conjunto de datos consiste en las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico recogidas mensualmente por Eurostat antes y durante la pandemia de COVID-19, rompiendo los patrones regulares.

El presente estudio pretende predecir las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico mediante un modelo estocástico no lineal de un solo factor denominado CIR#. La contribución de este estudio es doble: en términos de precisión de la predicción y en términos de parsimonia (tanto desde la perspectiva de los datos como de la complejidad de la modelización), especialmente cuando un patrón regular en la serie temporal se ve interrumpido. Demostramos que el CIR# no sólo aplica mejor que los modelos de referencia considerados, sino que también tiene un error mucho menor que otros modelos o enfoques adicionales de los que se informa en la literatura.

Los modelos tradicionales de previsión de la demanda turística pueden enfrentarse a desafíos cuando se adoptan cantidades masivas de índices de intensidad de búsqueda como indicadores de la demanda turística. Además, dada la importancia de unas previsiones precisas, muchos estudios han propuesto modelos híbridos novedosos o han utilizado diversas combinaciones de métodos. Así pues, aunque la adopción de enfoques más complejos presenta ventajas evidentes, el riesgo es el de enfrentarse a modelos poco manejables. Para demostrar cómo este enfoque puede extenderse de forma fructífera al turismo, se comprueba la precisión del CIR# utilizando métricas estándar como RMSE, MAE, MAPE o AvgReIMSE.

El modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo que otros modelos encontrados en la literatura y no se basa en técnicas de caja negra como las utilizadas en los modelos basados en redes neuronales o en la ciencia de datos. El análisis realizado sugiere que el modelo CIR# supera a otras predicciones de referencia en términos de significación estadística del error.

El modelo propuesto destaca por ser una opción viable al modelo Holt-Winters, sobre todo cuando se trata de datos irregulares.

El modelo propuesto ha demostrado su superioridad incluso cuando se compara con otros modelos de la bibliografía, y puede ser especialmente útil para los agentes del sector turístico a la hora de tomar decisiones cuando se producen alteraciones en los patrones de datos.

La novedad radica en que el modelo propuesto es una alternativa válida al Holt-Winters especialmente cuando los datos no son regulares. Además, en comparación con muchos modelos existentes en la literatura, el modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo y transparente, evitando la naturaleza de “caja negra” de los modelos basados en redes neuronales y en ciencia de datos.

The purpose of this paper is to persuade a hybrid framework, which can be used to assess the performance of various supply chains and can be further used to segregate supply chains concerning critical KPMs. The KPMs have been selected in the COVID-19 pandemic condition.

A real case of e-commerce is presented to illustrate the working of the proposed framework comprising a hybrid methodology of BWM and Fuzzy TOPSIS to measure the performance of the e-commerce supply chains by identifying the critical key performance metrics (KPMs) and measuring the performance of the considered supply chains against these.

The proposed framework is illustrated using real-time data from experts, collected through interviews and discussions. It is found that rate of return on investment (SCPM 27), flexibility of service systems to meet particular customer needs (SCPM 23) and supplier lead time against industry norm (SCPM 33) are significantly weighed in assessing performance of the selected supply chains, with weights 0.07764, 0.06863 and 0.0547, respectively. Amazon and Flipkart are seen to stand out among the other supply chains taken for the present study with closeness coefficients as 0.945 and 0.516, respectively.

The contemporary world has seen the drastic attack of COVID-19 on many firms worldwide, and hence measuring the performance of the supply chains has become necessary so as to understand the critical factors affecting performance, their relative importance and the firm's relative standings. There have been studies in the recent past where researchers worked on similar motives to generate a framework to measure performance of supply chains, but it is seen that the methodologies lack flexibility with respect to effectively handling large data, uncertainty in human emotions, consistency, etc. This is where the current study stands out in effectively measuring the performance of supply chains so as to aid many firms affected by the pandemic.

Most epidemic transmission forecasting methods can only provide deterministic outputs. This study aims to show that probabilistic forecasting, in contrast, is suitable for stochastic demand modeling and emergency medical resource planning under uncertainty.

Two probabilistic forecasting methods, i.e. quantile regression convolutional neural network and kernel density estimation, are combined to provide the conditional quantiles and conditional densities of infected populations. The value of probabilistic forecasting in improving decision performances and controlling decision risks is investigated by an empirical study on the emergency medical resource planning for the COVID-19 pandemic.

The managerial implications obtained from the empirical results include (1) the optimization models using the conditional quantile or the point forecasting result obtain better results than those using the conditional density; (2) for sufficient resources, decision-makers' risk preferences can be incorporated to make tradeoffs between the possible surpluses and shortages of resources in the emergency medical resource planning at different quantile levels; and (3) for scarce resources, the differences in emergency medical resource planning at different quantile levels greatly decrease or disappear because of the existing of forecasting errors and supply quantity constraints.

Very few studies concern probabilistic epidemic transmission forecasting methods, and this is the first attempt to incorporate deep learning methods into a two-phase framework for data-driven emergency medical resource planning under uncertainty. Moreover, the findings from the empirical results are valuable to select a suitable forecasting method and design an efficient emergency medical resource plan.

This study aims to propose a systematic knowledge management model to explore the causal links leading to the organizational crisis preparedness (OCP) level of integrated resorts (IRs) during the COVID-19 pandemic based on the intangible capital of organizational climate, dynamic capability, substantive capability and commitment.

The authors use data obtained from IRs in Macau. The Wuli–Shili–Renli (WSR) approach underpins the study. Structural equation modeling following fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) was used for data processing.

The results showed that organizational climate has an essential role in IRs preparedness for crises and affects their dynamic capacity, substantive capacity and commitment. The fsQCA results revealed that the relationships between conditions with a higher level of dynamic and substantive capability lead to higher OCP scores.

Executives should develop systemic thinking regarding organization preparedness in IRs for crisis management. A comprehensive understanding of the IRs’ business environment and crises is necessary, as they will require different factor constellations to allow the organization to perform well in a crisis. Financial support for employees could ensure their assistance when dealing with such situations. Rapid response teams should be set up for daily operations and marketing implementation of each level of the IRs management systems.

This study contributes to the extant literature on IRs crisis management in the OCP aspect. The authors constructed a systematic composite picture of organization executives’ knowledge management through the three layers of intangible capitals in WSR. Moreover, the authors explored causal links of WSR from symmetric and asymmetric perspectives.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the contribution that problem structuring methods – a branch of the decision support discipline of operational research – have made in helping managers deal with situations of high complexity. The paper reviews the limitations of traditional operational research and argues that problem structuring methods have expanded the entire discipline and significantly contributed to its holistic nature and problem-solving orientation.

The paper provides a critical discussion of the limitations of the traditional operational research approach and examines how the development and successful application of problem structuring methods have opened up a new paradigm of analysis in management science.

In theoretical terms, problem structuring methods have moved the discipline of operational research away from its positivistic epistemology and towards interpretivism and the acceptance of a subjective social reality. In practical terms, they offer managers a broad range of appropriate analytical tools which provide transparency and offer the opportunity to those affected by the problem situation to be actively involved in the entire modelling process within a facilitated environment.

The paper offers a critical discussion of the contribution that problem structuring methods have made while also identifying the challenges they face as they try to achieve higher levels of recognition and acceptance in management science.