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Quantitative forecasting techniques see their greatest applicationas part of production and inventory systems. Perhaps unfortunately, theproblem has been left to systems…
Quantitative forecasting techniques see their greatest application as part of production and inventory systems. Perhaps unfortunately, the problem has been left to systems analysts while the professional societies have contented themselves with exhortations to improve forecasting, neglecting recent developments from forecasting research. However, improvements in accuracy have a direct and often substantial financial impact. This article shows how the production and inventory control forecasting problem differs from other forecasting applications in its use of information and goes on to consider the characteristics of inventory type data. No single forecasting method is suited to all data series and the article then discusses how recent developments in forecasting methodology can improve accuracy. Considers approaches to extending the database beyond just the time‐series history of the data series. Concludes with a discussion of an “ideal” forecasting system and how far removed many popular programs used in production and inventory control are from this ideal.
The link between confidence and economic decisions has been widely covered in the economic literature, yet it is still an unexplored field in tourism. The purpose of this…
The link between confidence and economic decisions has been widely covered in the economic literature, yet it is still an unexplored field in tourism. The purpose of this paper is to address this gap, and investigate benefits in forecast accuracy that can be achieved by combining the UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index (TCI) with statistical forecasts.
Research is conducted in a real-life setting, using UNWTO unique data sets of tourism indicators. UNWTO TCI is pooled with statistical forecasts using three distinct approaches. Forecasts efficiency is assessed in terms of accuracy gains and capability to predict turning points in alternative scenarios, including one of the hardest crises the tourism sector ever experienced.
Results suggest that the TCI provides meaningful indications about the sign of future growth in international tourist arrivals, and point to an improvement of forecast accuracy, when the index is used in combination with statistical forecasts. Still, accuracy gains vary greatly across regions and can hardly be generalised. Findings provide meaningful directions to tourism practitioners on the use opportunity cost to produce short-term forecasts using both approaches.
Empirical evidence suggests that a confidence index should not be collected as input to improve their forecasts. It remains a valuable instrument to supplement official statistics, over which it has the advantage of being more frequently compiled and more rapidly accessible. It is also of particular importance to predict changes in the business climate and capture turning points in a timely fashion, which makes it an extremely valuable input for operational and strategic decisions.
The use of sentiment indexes as input to forecasting is an unexplored field in the tourism literature.
This research examines the extent to which the number of sales forecasting methods used by a company affects forecast accuracy and the extent to which organisation affects the number of sales forecast methods chosen. The objective is to better understand marketing management practices in this respect. Contextually, the study is part of the shift in sales forecasting research away from studies of accuracy per se to studies of organisation and implementation issues. It is widely recognised that objective techniques improve forecast accuracy, especially in the long run; yet, there is considerable evidence that such techniques are not widely used. The question of why there is such a discrepancy between practice and conventional wisdom, accounts, in large part, for this interest in organisation and implementation and the development of forecast models that incorporate implementation strategies.
This special “Anbar Abstracts” issue of Work Study is split into six sections covering abstracts under the following headings: Operational research and statistics; Project management, method study and work measurement; Business process re‐engineering; Design of work; Performance, productivity and motivation; Stock control and supply chain management.
The conditions under which forecasts from expert judgementoutperform traditional quantitative methods are investigated. It isshown that judgement is better than…
The conditions under which forecasts from expert judgement outperform traditional quantitative methods are investigated. It is shown that judgement is better than quantitative techniques at estimating the magnitude, onset, and duration of temporary change. On the other hand, quantitative methods provide superior performance during periods of no change, or constancy, in the data pattern. These propositions were tested on a sample of real business time series. To demonstrate how these propositions might be implemented, and to assess the potential value of doing so, a simple rule is tested on when to switch from quantitative to judgemental forecasts. The results show that it significantly reduces forecast error. These findings provide operations managers with some guidelines as to when (and when not) they should intervene in the forecasting process.
This special “Anbar Abstracts” issue of the Marketing Intelligence & Planning is split into nine sections covering abstracts under the following headings: Business Strategy; Marketing Strategy; Customer Service; Sales Management; Promotion; Marketing Research/Customer Behaviour; Product Management; Logistics and Distribution; Sundry.