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1 – 10 of over 7000Camille J. Mora, Arunima Malik, Sruthi Shanmuga and Baljit Sidhu
Businesses are increasingly vulnerable and exposed to physical climate change risks, which can cascade through local, national and international supply chains. Currently, few…
Abstract
Purpose
Businesses are increasingly vulnerable and exposed to physical climate change risks, which can cascade through local, national and international supply chains. Currently, few methodologies can capture how physical risks impact businesses via the supply chains, yet outside the business literature, methodologies such as sustainability assessments can assess cascading impacts.
Design/methodology/approach
Adopting a scoping review framework by Arksey and O'Malley (2005) and the PRISMA extension for scoping reviews (PRISMA-ScR), this paper reviews 27 articles that assess climate risk in supply chains.
Findings
The literature on supply chain risks of climate change using quantitative techniques is limited. Our review confirms that no research adopts sustainability assessment methods to assess climate risk at a business-level.
Originality/value
Alongside the need to quantify physical risks to businesses is the growing awareness that climate change impacts traverse global supply chains. We review the state of the literature on methodological approaches and identify the opportunities for researchers to use sustainability assessment methods to assess climate risk in the supply chains of an individual business.
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Chang Liu, Shiwu Yang, Yixuan Yang, Hefei Cao and Shanghe Liu
In the continuous development of high-speed railways, ensuring the safety of the operation control system is crucial. Electromagnetic interference (EMI) faults in signaling…
Abstract
Purpose
In the continuous development of high-speed railways, ensuring the safety of the operation control system is crucial. Electromagnetic interference (EMI) faults in signaling equipment may cause transportation interruptions, delays and even threaten the safety of train operations. Exploring the impact of disturbances on signaling equipment and establishing evaluation methods for the correlation between EMI and safety is urgently needed.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper elaborates on the necessity and significance of studying the impact of EMI as an unavoidable and widespread risk factor in the external environment of high-speed railway operations and continuous development. The current status of research methods and achievements from the perspectives of standard systems, reliability analysis and safety assessment are examined layer by layer. Additionally, it provides prospects for innovative ideas for exploring the quantitative correlation between EMI and signaling safety.
Findings
Despite certain innovative achievements in both domestic and international standard systems and related research for ensuring and evaluating railway signaling safety, there’s a lack of quantitative and strategic research on the degradation of safety performance in signaling equipment due to EMI. A quantitative correlation between EMI and safety has yet to be established. On this basis, this paper proposes considerations for research methods pertaining to the correlation between EMI and safety.
Originality/value
This paper overviews a series of methods and outcomes derived from domestic and international studies regarding railway signaling safety, encompassing standard systems, reliability analysis and safety assessment. Recognizing the necessity for quantitatively describing and predicting the impact of EMI on high-speed railway signaling safety, an innovative approach using risk assessment techniques as a bridge to establish the correlation between EMI and signaling safety is proposed.
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Dongqiang Cao and Lianhua Cheng
In the evolution process of building construction accidents, there are key nodes of risk change. This paper aims to quickly identify the key nodes and quantitatively assess the…
Abstract
Purpose
In the evolution process of building construction accidents, there are key nodes of risk change. This paper aims to quickly identify the key nodes and quantitatively assess the node risk. Furthermore, it is essential to propose risk accumulation assessment method of building construction.
Design/methodology/approach
Authors analyzed 419 accidents investigation reports on building construction. In total, 39 risk factors were identified by accidents analysis. These risk factors were combined with 245 risk evolution chains. Based on those, Gephi software was used to draw the risk evolution network model for building construction. Topological parameters were applied to interpret the risk evolution network characteristic.
Findings
Combining complex network with risk matrix, the standard of quantitative classification of node risk level is formulated. After quantitative analysis of node risk, 7 items of medium-risk node, 3 items of high-risk node and 2 items of higher-risk nodes are determined. The application results show that the system risk of the project is 44.67%, which is the high risk level. It can reflect the actual safety conditions of the project in a more comprehensive way.
Research limitations/implications
This paper determined the level of node risk only using the node degree and risk matrix. In future research, more node topological parameters that could be applied to node risk, such as clustering coefficients, mesoscopic numbers, centrality, PageRank, etc.
Practical implications
This article can quantitatively assess the risk accumulation of building construction. It would help safety managers could clarify the system risk status. Moreover, it also contributes to reveal the correspondence between risk accumulation and accident evolution.
Originality/value
This study comprehensively considers the likelihood, consequences and correlation to assess node risk. Based on this, single-node risk and system risk assessment methods of building construction systems were proposed. It provided a promising method and idea for the risk accumulation assessment method of building construction. Moreover, evolution process of node risk is explained from the perspective of risk accumulation.
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Lianhua Cheng and Dongqiang Cao
Clarifying the risk evolution mechanism of housing construction for work-safety management is essential. Existing studies have inadequately discussed the risk-accumulation process…
Abstract
Purpose
Clarifying the risk evolution mechanism of housing construction for work-safety management is essential. Existing studies have inadequately discussed the risk-accumulation process in housing construction. Therefore, this study aimed to use the complex network theory and risk allocation mechanisms to explore the evolution of risk factors.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors analysed a database of housing construction accidents in China from 2015 to 2020 to identify risk factors. Moreover, the causal relationship between risk factors was determined through a systematic analysis of the logical sequence of risk factors. A complex network was used to construct a risk network for housing construction accidents (RNHCA).
Findings
The risk matrix method was used to define the factor risk threshold, and a risk value was assigned based on the correlation between risk factors. This contributes to the examination of the evolution mechanism of risk networks in the process of risk factor transmission. The case verification results show that the RNHCA quantitative assessment model can better evaluate the system risk status of housing construction accidents. Furthermore, this model can identify the key risk factors and risk chains with high risk in the evolution of the risk network.
Research limitations/implications
Accident investigation reports need to be classified and processed to analyse the evolution law of risk networks under different scales of construction project, such as high-rise buildings, middle-rise buildings, and low-rise buildings.
Practical implications
This study clarified the risk evolution process of complex systems in housing construction and provided a new method for analysing accidents.
Originality/value
This study clarifies the risk value allocation of risk factors in the transmission process and reveals the process of risk factor evolution in housing construction. This study explains the individual risk factors that form a systemic risk through the transmission chain. Moreover, this paper clarified the transformation relationship between system risk and accidents. The paper also provided a new perspective for risk analysis.
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Zhiyu Dong, Ruize Qin, Ping Zou, Xin Yao, Peng Cui, Fan Zhang and Yizhou Yang
The occupational health risk associated with the production of prefabricated concrete components is often overlooked. This paper will use a damage assessment and cyclic mitigation…
Abstract
Purpose
The occupational health risk associated with the production of prefabricated concrete components is often overlooked. This paper will use a damage assessment and cyclic mitigation (DACM) model to provide individualized exposure risk assessment and corresponding mitigation management measures for workers who are being exposed.
Design/methodology/approach
The DACM model is proposed based on the concept of life cycle assessment (LCA). The model uses Monte-Carlo simulation for uncertainty risk assessment, followed by quantitative damage assessment using disability-adjusted life year (DALY). Lastly, sensitivity analysis is used to identify the parameters with the greatest impact on health risks.
Findings
The results show that the dust concentration is centered around the mean, and the fitting results are close to normal distribution, so the mean value can be used to carry out the calculation of risk. However, calculations using the DACM model revealed that there are still some work areas at risk. DALY damage is most severe in concrete production area. Meanwhile, the inhalation rate (IR), exposure duration (ED), exposure frequency (EF) and average exposure time (AT) showed greater impacts based on the sensitivity analysis.
Originality/value
Based on the comparison, the DACM model can determine that the potential occupational health risk of prefabricated concrete component (PC) factory and the risk is less than that of on-site construction. It synthesizes field research and simulation to form the entire assessment process into a case-base system with the depth of the cycle, which allows the model to be continuously adjusted to reduce the occupational health damage caused by production pollution exposure.
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This study aims to improve the reliability of emergency safety barriers by using the subjective safety analysis based on evidential reasoning theory in order to develop on a…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to improve the reliability of emergency safety barriers by using the subjective safety analysis based on evidential reasoning theory in order to develop on a framework for optimizing the reliability of emergency safety barriers.
Design/methodology/approach
The emergency event tree analysis is combined with an interval type-2 fuzzy-set and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. In order to the quantitative data is not available, this study based on interval type2 fuzzy set theory, trapezoidal fuzzy numbers describe the expert's imprecise uncertainty about the fuzzy failure probability of emergency safety barriers related to the liquefied petroleum gas storage prevent. Fuzzy fault tree analysis and fuzzy ordered weighted average aggregation are used to address uncertainties in emergency safety barrier reliability assessment. In addition, a critical analysis and some corrective actions are suggested to identify weak points in emergency safety barriers. Therefore, a framework decisions are proposed to optimize and improve safety barrier reliability. Decision-making in this framework uses evidential reasoning theory to identify corrective actions that can optimize reliability based on subjective safety analysis.
Findings
A real case study of a liquefied petroleum gas storage in Algeria is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The results show that the proposed methodology provides the possibility to evaluate the values of the fuzzy failure probability of emergency safety barriers. In addition, the fuzzy failure probabilities using the fuzzy type-2 AHP method are the most reliable and accurate. As a result, the improved fault tree analysis can estimate uncertain expert opinion weights, identify and evaluate failure probability values for critical basic event. Therefore, suggestions for corrective measures to reduce the failure probability of the fire-fighting system are provided. The obtained results show that of the ten proposed corrective actions, the corrective action “use of periodic maintenance tests” prioritizes reliability, optimization and improvement of safety procedures.
Research limitations/implications
This study helps to determine the safest and most reliable corrective measures to improve the reliability of safety barriers. In addition, it also helps to protect people inside and outside the company from all kinds of major industrial accidents. Among the limitations of this study is that the cost of corrective actions is not taken into account.
Originality/value
Our contribution is to propose an integrated approach that uses interval type-2 fuzzy sets and AHP method and emergency event tree analysis to handle uncertainty in the failure probability assessment of emergency safety barriers. In addition, the integration of fault tree analysis and fuzzy ordered averaging aggregation helps to improve the reliability of the fire-fighting system and optimize the corrective actions that can improve the safety practices in liquefied petroleum gas storage tanks.
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YiQin Sang, Huang Li, Hongjuan Ge, Cong Gao, Yinxiao Hu and Hui Jin
This study aims to conduct the aircraft electrical wiring interconnection system (EWIS) safety risk assessment process abundantly and hierarchically and establish the assessment…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to conduct the aircraft electrical wiring interconnection system (EWIS) safety risk assessment process abundantly and hierarchically and establish the assessment index system considering the weights and interrelationships of different levels of indices.
Design/methodology/approach
Due to the failure of EWIS being multifactorial, hidden and diverse, this paper divides the factors influencing the failure of EWIS into 3 primary indices, 13 secondary indices and 38 tertiary indices. Taking open circuit failure (OCF) and short circuit failure (SCF) as examples, calculate the weights of assessment indices based on the triangular fuzzy number analytic hierarchy process (TFNAHP) and triangular fuzzy number decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (TFNDEMATEL). The cloud model (CM) divides the risk levels and obtains the safety risk assessment results. The comparative analyses of different weight calculation methods, different failure modes and different aircraft EWIS zones verify the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.
Findings
The results show that the proposed method aligns more with the actual situation than other methods. Also, the results identify key focus objects in EWIS safety risk assessment, such as the surrounding environmental factors among the primary indices having the most significant influence on OCF and SCF, the risk level of SCF being higher than that of OCF, etc.
Originality/value
This paper proposes a safety risk assessment index system for aircraft EWIS based on the cable parameters, surrounding environmental factors, installation and protection methods. The weight assignment is added to the assessment index system, and the safety risk assessment model is constructed by combining TFNAHP, TFNDEMATEL and CM.
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Mohammad Hosein Madihi, Ali Akbar Shirzadi Javid and Farnad Nasirzadeh
In traditional Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a large amount of data are required to complete network parameters, which makes it impractical. In addition, no systematic method…
Abstract
Purpose
In traditional Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a large amount of data are required to complete network parameters, which makes it impractical. In addition, no systematic method has been used to create the structure of the BBN. The aims of this study are to: (1) decrease the number of questions and time and effort required for completing the parameters of the BBN and (2) present a simple and apprehensible method for creating the BBN structure based on the expert knowledge.
Design/methodology/approach
In this study, by combining the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and BBN, a model is introduced that can form the project risk network and analyze the impact of risk factors on project cost quantitatively based on the expert knowledge. The ranked node method (RNM) is then used to complete the parametric part of the BBN using the same data obtained from the experts to analyze DEMATEL.
Findings
Compared to the traditional BBN, the proposed method will significantly reduce the time and effort required to elicit network parameters and makes it easy to create a BBN structure. The results obtained from the implementation of the model on a mass housing project showed that considering the identified risk factors, the cost overruns relating to material, equipment, workforce and overhead cost were 37.6, 39.5, 42 and 40.1%, respectively.
Research limitations/implications
Compared to the traditional BBN, the proposed method will significantly reduce the time and effort required to elicit network parameters and makes it easy to create a BBN structure. The results obtained from the implementation of the model on a mass housing project showed that considering the identified risk factors, the cost overruns relating to material, equipment, workforce and overhead cost were 37.6, 39.5, 42 and 40.1%, respectively. The obtained results are based on a single case study project and may not be readily generalizable.
Originality/value
The presented framework makes the BBN more practical for quantitatively assessing the impact of risk on project costs. This helps to manage financial issues, which is one of the main reasons for project bankruptcy.
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Manuel Rossetti, Juliana Bright, Andrew Freeman, Anna Lee and Anthony Parrish
This paper is motivated by the need to assess the risk profiles associated with the substantial number of items within military supply chains. The scale of supply chain management…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper is motivated by the need to assess the risk profiles associated with the substantial number of items within military supply chains. The scale of supply chain management processes creates difficulties in both the complexity of the analysis and in performing risk assessments that are based on the manual (human analyst) assessment methods. Thus, analysts require methods that can be automated and that can incorporate on-going operational data on a regular basis.
Design/methodology/approach
The approach taken to address the identification of supply chain risk within an operational setting is based on aspects of multiobjective decision analysis (MODA). The approach constructs a risk and importance index for supply chain elements based on operational data. These indices are commensurate in value, leading to interpretable measures for decision-making.
Findings
Risk and importance indices were developed for the analysis of items within an example supply chain. Using the data on items, individual MODA models were formed and demonstrated using a prototype tool.
Originality/value
To better prepare risk mitigation strategies, analysts require the ability to identify potential sources of risk, especially in times of disruption such as natural disasters.
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Min Cheng, Lin Liu, Xiaotong Cheng and Li Tao
Many waste-to-energy (WTE) plants are constructed and operated using the public-private partnership (PPP) mode in China. However, risk events of PPP WTE incineration projects…
Abstract
Purpose
Many waste-to-energy (WTE) plants are constructed and operated using the public-private partnership (PPP) mode in China. However, risk events of PPP WTE incineration projects sometimes occur. This study aims to clarify the relationship of risks in China's PPP WTE incineration projects and identify the key risks accordingly and risk transmission paths.
Design/methodology/approach
A risk list of PPP WTE incineration projects was obtained based on literature analysis. Moreover, a hybrid approach combining fuzzy sets, decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and interpretive structural modeling (ISM) was developed to analyze the causality of risks, explore critical risks and reveal the risk transmission paths. The quantitative analysis process was implemented in MATLAB.
Findings
The results show that government decision-making risk, government credit risk, government supervision behavior risk, legal and policy risk, revenue and cost risk and management capacity risk are the critical risks of PPP WTE incineration projects in China. These critical risks are at different levels in the risk hierarchy and often trigger other risks.
Originality/value
Currently, there is a lack of exploration on the interaction between the risks of PPP WTE incineration projects. This study fills this gap by examining the key risks and risk transfer pathways of PPP WTE incineration projects from the perspective of risk interactions. The findings can help the public and private sectors to systematically understand the risks in PPP WTE incineration projects, thus enabling them to identify the risks that need to be focused on when making decisions and to optimize risk prevention strategies. The proposed hybrid approach can offer methodological ideas for risk analysis of other types of PPP projects.
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