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At the end of the case students will be able to:

1. Relate risk as one of the 12 principles in project management contemplated in the international standards of the PMBOK Seventh Edition guide.

2. Determine high-level risks by articulating the WBS and RBS of a construction project.

3. Perform a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probability and impact of risks through the heat map tool and the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) technique.

4. Propose the different response strategies contemplated in the risk management through the formulation of a response and contingency plan.

MORESA S.A.S was a family company founded in 1994, whose value proposition focused on construction and permanent advice for the execution of innovative and contemporary projects with more than 27 years of experience in the city of San José de Cucuta, department of Norte de Santander, Colombia. The objective of the case is to Relate risk as one of the 12 principles in project management contemplated in the international standards of the PMBOK Seventh Edition guide; Determine high-level risks by articulating the WBS and RBS of a construction project; Perform a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probability and impact of risks through the heat map tool and the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) technique and propose the different response strategies contemplated in the risk management through the formulation of a response and contingency plan. The teaching case is designed for academic programs in areas of knowledge of civil engineering, architecture and at postgraduate level such as: Master’s in civil engineering, Master’s in risk management, Master in project management or MBA. For this case, an expert judgment was developed with professionals belonging to different areas of knowledge. Likewise, secondary information was collected from the organization's strategic documents and the analogous estimation through the historical records of the project portfolio developed by the construction company. Finally, the case, classified in the Built Environment, a challenge that project managers must face in VUCA environment through risk management.

The teaching case is designed for academic programs in areas of knowledge of civil engineering, architecture and at postgraduate level such as: Master’s in civil engineering, Master’s in risk management, Master’s in project management or MBA. In the modules of risk management, project management, international standards, the case guides the applicability of methods and artifacts used in risk management considering the process identification, quantitative, qualitative analysis, and development of response strategies and contingency plans.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 2: Built Environment.

With the development of inclusive financial business in China in recent years, this case describes the credit risk control of “mobile credit”, a smart online credit platform launched by Shanghai Mobanker Co. Ltd. (referred to as “Mobanker”, previously named as “Shanghai Mobanker Financial Information Service Co., Ltd.”) which provides technical services for inclusive finance industry.

The financial success of dairy farms depends critically on the price of their main output, milk. Large volatility in the price of milk poses a considerable business risk to dairy farms. This is particularly true for family-run dairy farms. The question then arises: how can a farm owner hedge the milk price risk? The standard approach to establish a price floor for a commodity such as milk is to purchase put options on commodity futures. At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, farmers can buy put options on the price of a variety of milk products. However, the price a farm receives for its milk depends on many factors and is unique to the farm. Thus, a farmer cannot directly buy put options on the price he receives for the milk his farm produces. Instead the farmer needs to determine which of the options available for trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange offer the best hedge for his own milk price. The assignment in this case is to examine historical data on several prices of milk products and the milk price received by a family-run dairy farm in California. Students need to find the price that is most closely correlated to the farm's milk price and to then choose options with the appropriate strike price that serve as the best hedge for the farm's price risk.

The objective is to expose students to an interesting but simple finance application of linear regression analysis. To solve the case, students must run several simple linear regressions, then use the best regression model they find to make a prediction for the dependent price variable and analyze the prediction interval in order to achieve the desired objective outlined in the case. By completing the case, students will acquire a good understanding of their regression model and its usefulness.

Kaleidofin was co-founded in 2017 by Puneet Gupta and Sucharita Mukherjee; former CFO and CEO of IFMR (Institute for Financial Management and Research) Holdings Pvt Ltd. As part of their roles at IFMR, Gupta and Mukherjee focused on designing products and developing technology to push for financial inclusion. In their field interactions, the co-founders had an epiphany of the challenges faced by people while trying to save towards important life goals. They saw an opportunity in the large segment of financially under-served people in India and quit their jobs to start Kaleidofin. Kaleidofin was conceptualised as a digital platform that offers customised financial solutions to help customers meet their life goals. The start-up partnered with mutual fund companies for solutions on one hand and network partners (NGOs, microfinance organizations, cooperative banks) on the other for access to their existing customers.

Kaleidofin grew from 50 customers in January 2018 to 15,000 customers by March 2019. Aiming to grow to 1 million customers in the next 30 months Kaleidofin faces a dilemma about its future course. The start-up could continue to grow by expanding its current target segment which is the low-income households and preserve its vision at the risk of increasing costs. The second option would be to look at other potential target segments, such as, middle-income households and risk diluting their vision. The case study highlights the unique customer-centric model of Kaleidofin and the need for start-ups to understand the value proposition of their products/services.

1. Probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions

2. Decision tree to find the expected monetary value (EMV) of different options.

3. Monte Carlo simulation for risk analysis.

4. Risk analysis in project management.

Learners will be able to understand and apply the following: how to approach uncertainty in business decisions using probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions; how to address uncertainty in business decisions by looking forward and reasoning backward, using the decision tree technique and the EMV of different decisions; how to analyse the risk inherent in business decisions by incorporating probability distributions for all critical variables in the form of Monte Carlo simulation; and appreciation of strategic considerations in risk analysis as it applies to project management

The case describes the challenge facing Vilas Birari, the owner and chief executive of Harsh Constructions, a construction company headquartered in Nasik, India. Birari had to decide on the bid for a construction project in September of 2021, during the COVID-19 (COVID) pandemic. Due to successive waves of the pandemic, the state and federal governments announced lockdowns intermittently, causing uncertainty in costs related to labor, material and project completion. The dilemma before Birari was how to set a bid price that was not so low as to incur a loss and not so high as to lose the bid to competitors. The uncertainty made Birari’s decision-making complex. The case invites students to help Birari find an optimum bid price by using various quantitative techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees.

This case is intended for students of management at a master’s level, in an elective course on management science, which is often also known as decision science. This compact case can be positioned in the second half of the course, when exploring risk management using computer simulation as a tool. The case serves both as an introduction to using simulation to manage uncertainty as well a contrast with simpler methods that are covered earlier in the course.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 7: Management Science.

In early December 2013, Roxann Biller, Associate at the Chicago-based private equity firm Delta Quantitative Real Estate Capital, was asked to assess the risk associated with the firm's first potential overseas investment. Haifu Sentā Gendaino (HSG) was a large multi-tenant logistics property located in the Gaikando area of Tokyo. High-quality tenants currently occupied the property, so at first glance the risks of investing in the property seemed minimal. However, Biller knew that she had to consider the potential drawbacks. This would mean gaining a better understanding of each tenant, trying to forecast the future condition of the Tokyo logistics market, and considering what new risks her firm would face because the property's cash flows were in a foreign currency.

After completing this case, students should be able to: identify and compute relevant cash flows in relation to a real estate project and compute the net present value (NPV). Determine the target return or cost of capital (by looking at historical economic indicators). Design or formulate a sensitivity analysis to determine the drivers of the project value. Evaluate real estate and other investments taking qualitative and quantitative factors into consideration. Demonstrate the computation of a break-even rate to determine the minimum or maximum revenue or cost required for a project to be viable.

This case study is about the Golden Beak Securities Pension Fund that wanted to invest in a Hostel Project in one of the universities in Ghana. Most universities in Ghana faced an acute shortage of on-campus accommodation. Also, the Government of Ghana, in 2017, implemented a programme to make Senior High School in Ghana free. This was expected to increase the number of students who will enter the existing universities. The project was therefore seen as strategic, as it would help ease the pressure of on-campus accommodation while providing diversification for the pension fund. As part of the investment committee’s (IC) quest to improve the skill set available to it, especially in relation to real estate investments, Esi Abebrese was appointed as one of the members of the IC of GSB. Her main task was to collect information on key macroeconomic variables, as well as granular information on project costs and revenues and conduct investment appraisal. Esi was scheduled to make a presentation to the IC on the 15th of October 2019 following which the Committee will debate and make a decision. The project had an estimated cost of GH¢52m with a total number of 3,424 student beds and ancillary facilities. Undertaking the project required moving funds from investments in money market securities with one of the banks in Ghana. The investments in the money market securities were currently yielding about 16% a year. The determination of the cost of capital was critical and Esi and Nana eventually settled on a long-term weighted average cost of capital of 14%. This was after considering the trend of inflation, monetary policy rates, treasury rates, stock market returns and a report on returns on commercial real estate properties in Ghana. An exit capitalisation rate of 20% was also estimated for the purposes of determining the value of the property at the end of the investment horizon. Esi also obtained estimates of cost and revenue for the project and proceeded to carry out a feasibility analysis on the project. This consisted of an NPV analysis and sensitivity analysis on various factors to determine the drivers of the project value. The IC had to take several factors (both quantitative and qualitative) into consideration before making a decision. Esi believed that these factors included the diversification of the fund’s assets, the return on investment, potential oversupply of hostel accommodation, the social responsibility of providing student accommodation and the impact of any prolonged shutdown of the university.

Masters/advanced undergraduate.

Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes.

CSS 1: Accounting and Finance.

Bicycle industry, emerging markets, competitor analysis, financial forecasting.

This case can be used as a teaching tool in the following courses: MBA/post-graduate programs in management in management accounting, management control systems and strategic cost management; executive training programs for middle and senior level employees; and under-graduate/post-graduate programs in entrepreneurship. It can be used to explain and test the concepts of SWOT analysis, Porter's five forces model and PEST analysis. It introduces the technique of breakeven analysis and its relationship with operating leverage. Moreover, it demonstrates the application and analyses of the Du Pont equation.

Hero Cycles Ltd was established by the four Munjal brothers in pre-independence India. It started off as a business of bicycle spare parts, but quickly expanded in post-independence India, with Ludhiana as its base. The company later joined with foreign firms like Honda Motors, Japan to become the largest manufacturers of bicycles in the world. It dominates domestic markets with a market share of around 40 percent. Ananth Munjal, a learned, ambitious and cautious individual, is the next generation, ready to take over the reins of the company. Being someone who believes in learning from past mistakes, he forms a team to critically examine the decisions made by his predecessors. This team is also directed to utilize forecasting techniques for determining the expected profitability given the existing state of affairs that prevail. Additionally, Du Pont analysis is to be performed for studying the efficiency of the company on the facets of operating performance, asset turnover and associated financial leverage. Also, Ananth's risk-averse nature compels him to study the past with regard to the relationship between operating leverage, breakeven sales and corresponding margin of safety. Furthermore, he wishes to inspect the historical cost structure of the firm, and its influence on company performance.

These include the use of: SWOT analysis to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to a company; PEST analysis to identify the political, economic, social and technological factors that affect the operations of a company; Porter's five forces model to analyse an industry. The case also helps students: by identifying fixed costs and variable costs that are a part of operating expenditure of a business; in the use of forecasting the financials of a company for the sake of predicting the future outcomes of certain business strategies; by application of Du Pont analysis to examine the efficiency of the various processes and strategies; in determining quantitative terms like contribution margin, breakeven sales, operating leverage, margin of safety, their significance, and the relationship between these terms.

Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes.

This case helps students to analyze non-financial and financial aspects of a company and observe quantitative and qualitative aspects of decisions and decide whether to invest or not and give suggestions to sell, buy or hold stocks. The case is expected to help the students understand and analyze the following points: the overall performance of the company and industry, how fundamental and technical analysis is applied to reach investment decisions, the areas where Jet Airways occupies the top position compared to peer group (competitor analysis), the company’s financial position and valuation with the help of tools and techniques and suggestions and observations to shareholders whether to buy/sell or hold shares.

This case can be used for MBA (Finance) students on equity research and valuation. Students are introduced to the fundamental procedures of equity research and analysis – evaluating sector desirability, financial modeling, equity valuation methods. To enhance research skills, students are required to acquire basic knowledge on macro and micro economic indicators. This case helps students to analyze non financial and financial aspects of a company and observe quantitative and qualitative aspects of decisions and decide whether to invest or not and give suggestions to sell, buy or hold stocks.

Mr Rahul, a consultant in Karvey brokerage house was about to leave the office on the evening of March 24, 2015 when the phone rang. It was Mr Srirag, one of his clients and close friends who was passionate about investing in shares. Mr Rahul with his two decades of experience in monitoring and advising various investment plans has been continuously advising Srirag on different investments in shares. Srirag said “Rahul! You know that I bought many shares in Jet Airways. While studying the annual reports of Jet Airways 2014-2015 about its business profits and losses, I came across a January to March, 2013 business quarter analysis report that wrote about Jet Airways facing a net loss of 4.95 billion rupees due to over debt burden and interest costs. It also stated that the company sold a 24 per cent stake in 2013 to Etihad for 332$ million which is an Abu Dhabi based airline. The news said that the deal would help the company overcome financial challenges, raise cash, cut costs and gain access to the global flight network. I am worried about whether this deal would allow the company to continue its operations from India or not. I am also concerned about the downfall of Kingfisher, a major setback in the aviation industry in India that owes 8,000 crores to its employees, banks, airports, oil companies. I am worried that either my investment in Jet Airways might bring huge losses or the partnership with Etihad airways would result in the reduction of costs and due to joint sales efforts, sharing resources and network integration thereby leading to a valuable share price. Since your guidance has helped in many issues, I would like to know the present condition and future prospectus prevailing in Jet Airways”. With a lot of ambiguity in his mind, he asked Rahul to recommend if he should hold or sell the shares in Jet Airways.

The case is expected to help the students understand and analyze the following points: the overall performance of the company and industry, how fundamental and technical analysis is applied to reach investment decisions, the areas where Jet Airways occupies the top position compared to peer group (Competitor analysis), the company’s financial position and valuation with the help of tools and techniques and suggestions and observations to shareholders on whether to buy/sell or hold shares.

The link to the following videos to be sent to participants in advance to help them prepare for the class. www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3XJXTmILyk, Equity Research Presentation: Coca-Cola, www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5pEK_2uItg Write Equity Research Report, format, process, www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMLJccgiSTk Equity Valuation and Analysis-Part I.

CSS 1: Accounting and Finance.

The case depicts an opportunity for undergraduate and postgraduate students to be exposed to the basic digitization of supply chain management, technology adoption, change management and cost-benefit analysis concepts. The study aims to encourage them to use the data given in the case and exhibits to compare and contrast physical and digital supply chains (SC); design the digitized version of the traditional SC; examine the nitty-gritty of technology adoption in the SC context; develop the change management plans for the successful adoption and implementation of SC digitization; design the risk register and Explore the business process management; and conduct the return on investment analysis.

Amber Yen, Chief Operating Officer Apparel Sourcing at Ransys Partners Ltd (RSL), was presented with the task of reducing physical sample production cost and time without impeding order pipeline. RSL was experiencing significant capacity constrain during the COVID-19 crisis, failing to deliver physical samples to international brands. To win large export orders, RSL had to adopt a new innovative way to reduce the sample approval process while meeting customer requirements. Ms Yen wanted to convert the entire sample approval process into a digital mode. She was facing multiple challenges related to the design, implementation and adoption of the digital sample approval process to coordinate the entire SC. She had limited time and was grappling with other impending constraints such as increasing cost, intense competition, demanding customers, shortage of labor due to COVID-19, reducing the bottom line. It was her time to test the idiom “necessity is the mother of innovation”.

The target audience for this case is management or business school students. This case can be used to teach digitization of SC, operations management, organization behavior, digitization of enterprises, IT for business, new service development, supplier management technology adoption, and change management in management or business schools.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 9: Operations and Logistics.