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On completion of the case study, students will understand the following learning objectives: the characteristics of quantitative easing (QE) and when it may be appropriate to implement QE; how QE differs from a conventional bond purchasing programme; the impact of direct financing of the fiscus by the central bank on its independence; how the macro-economic and political environments affect and influence national economic policy; the difference between traditional and unconventional monetary policies and potential implications for an economy like South Africa. The learnings from this case study can be used in other global economic environments, particularly in emerging markets. This case study provides valuable insights into decision-making, institutional independence, policy coordination, deficit financing, causes and consequences of price inflation, risks relating to monetary instability and the correct application of monetary policy.

After the announcement of the COVID-19-related lockdown in March 2020 and the subsequent slow-down of economic activity in South Africa, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) had to consider appropriate macro-economic tools to ensure both price and financial stability in South Africa. The macro-economic policy tools had to be considered in light of the South African economic context, which included acknowledgement of South Africa’s debt crisis and slow economic growth. The central bank responded by introducing the following measures: reducing interest rates to a record low of 3.5% to give consumers financial relief and to promote spending in the economy; purchasing government bonds in the secondary markets to stabilise financial markets; facilitating the loan guarantee scheme that was aimed at providing financial relief to small- and medium-sized enterprises; relaxing the capital and liquidity adequacy requirements that commercial banks are required to meet; and ensuring availability of liquidity to banks through facilities such as the weekly repo auctions. However, despite introducing these interventions, the SARB faced calls from politicians, analysts and academics to do more. Various commentators argued that the SARB could introduce QE and directly finance government spending by purchasing government bonds. Some commentators argued that the reluctance of the SARB to pursue these suggestions was a result of the close alignment and relationship between the SARB and National Treasury. The dilemma faced by Governor Lesetja Kganyago of the SARB was threefold, namely, whether it was appropriate for the central bank to pursue the initiatives and, if so, whether the bank could pursue them without compromising its independence, and if the introduction of those initiatives would not adversely affect the ability of the central bank to fulfil its mandate of price stability and financial stability. In this regard, the governor and his executive team were required to consider the long-term implications of introducing the initiatives on consumer price inflation, independence of the SARB and the appropriate use of monetary policy tools to fulfil the central bank’s mandate. But the question was: What policies should the governor favour?

This case study is based on various macro-economic theories. Therefore, it would be useful to teach this case study in macro-economic courses in the following programmes: master’s in business administration, bachelor of commerce, bachelor of economic sciences and business science studies, as well as on executive education programmes, which consider macro-economic policy. In general, students who undertake economics, business and general management, finance, legal, commerce and banking studies could learn from this case study.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 3: Entrepreneurship.

This case presents financial and macroeconomic data for the United States between 2007 and 2013, a period covering the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2007–2009 and the slow economic recovery from 2009 onward. During this period, the Federal Reserve had set the federal funds rate, its primary monetary policy instrument, near zero and was using additional monetary policy tools to stimulate the economy. One of these additional tools was quantitative easing (QE).

Students will use the data provided in the case to examine how financial markets reacted to QE actions by the Federal Reserve and to analyze the potential impact of QE on the macroeconomy.

After reading and analyzing the case, students will be able to:

• Apply the event study methodology to analyze economic effects

• Recognize how macroeconomic news affects the prices of financial securities

• Describe the connections between the prices of financial securities and the macroeconomy

• • Debate the relative costs and benefits of quantitative easing and the optimality of Federal Reserve policy

Apply the event study methodology to analyze economic effects

Recognize how macroeconomic news affects the prices of financial securities

Describe the connections between the prices of financial securities and the macroeconomy

• Debate the relative costs and benefits of quantitative easing and the optimality of Federal Reserve policy

In September, 2011, to prevent its currency from appreciating after the Global Financial Crisis, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to peg its currency to EUR and announced that it would not let CHF go beyond 1/1.20 EUR. Maintaining the peg required the SNB to purchase foreign currency assets virtually endlessly in response to the worsening Eurozone crisis. By end of 2014, its foreign currency exchange reserves amounted to almost 80% of its GDP. In an attempt to deter capital flows and reduce its balance sheet size, in December, 2014, the SNB first bought the interest rate on commercial bank deposits to negative levels and then, facing impending quantitative easing by the European Central Bank, announced the removal of the peg on January 15, 2015. The case describes the backdrop and the circumstances leading up to removal of the peg.

The case describes the origins of money, touching on the gold standard, the Fed’s 1942 purchase of US debt to fund the “war effort”, Bretton Woods (1944), Nixon’s 1971 pulling the currency peg and descent of money from gold to fiat. It also touches on theories of inflation and deflation, quantitative easing (QE) post the 2008 crisis and the “swamp” of (unorthodox) modern monetary theory (MMT). Aside from providing a brief history of monetary policy and economics, the case study seeks to widen students’ understanding of key economic issues including: fiat money, QE, government funding mechanisms, taxation, economic stimulation, inflation/deflation – and of course, the need for an ombudsman to limit excess.

In May 2020, South Africa’s deputy finance minister David Masondo announced that he would support the South African Reserve Bank’s lending to the government. This statement followed President Ramaposa’s earlier announcement of a R500bn COVID-19 stimulus package. The case explores the economic history of money, from barter to gold to cryptos. The case examines the origins of central banks’ printing of money, initially to support the Second World War effort and more recently the 2008 global financial crisis and now the COVID-19 crisis. In particular, the case raises the question of central bank independence – “democratically elected governments always need money, is it appropriate for central banks provide it? And are there limits?”

MBA and Executive Education

Teaching Notes are available for educators only.

CSS: 1 Accounting and Finance.

The case presents a lot of information, directly and via references and Web-based links, about the economic consequences of the virus. Several themes are evident: As an opening theory-base, the decades-long stakeholder versus shareholder debate is invoked – but does this extend beyond “stakeholders” to the “public good”? There are contexts (generally wars) in which governments are empowered to instruct private companies to engage in the public good – but how far should/must they voluntarily go? The underlying macro-economic issue is: where will we get the capital? Central banks have not recovered from the 2008 global financial crisis and have limited “ammunition” to address the anticipated economic problems introduced by the virus. The case presents data on selected financial metrics (interest rates, debt levels, risk pricing, etc.) and outlines the conventional stimulatory steps used: lowering short-term rates (monetary policy) and investment in assets (fiscal policy) and the less-conventional Quantitative Easing “QE”.

The coronavirus appears to herald a devastating blow to lives and to the world economy – its impact is yet unknown, but likely to be comparable to war and pestilence of biblical proportion. This case focuses on the possible economic trajectories as a consequence of the virus, with emphasis on bailing-out (restructuring) struggling companies and restoring jobs. Within the framework of a world desperately in need of capital, it raises questions about accountability and responsibility. Should retrenched workers in restaurants, banks and airlines feel the consequences of their poor career choices? Must shareholders (read pensioners) shoulder losses to support the public good? Ought governments bail-out whole industries – using tax-payer money? Or do we allow central banks to conjure-up billions and hope for the best? The case does not attempt to provide answers to these questions but presents several vignettes and offers a context in which participants can debate the merits of these problems.

MBA and Exec-ed.

Teaching Notes are available for educators only.

CSS: 1 Accounting and Finance.

At what point in the tepid recovery from the global financial crisis should the Fed take a major step in normalizing U.S. monetary policy by greatly reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds? Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke faced this question in Spring 2012, even as he was concerned that the U.S. economy was on weaker footing than many believed. Suitable for both core and elective MBA courses in global financial markets and international finance, this case examines the risks associated with a policy some would consider monetizing the budget deficit. Students consider the factors behind the current and prospective levels of U.S. long-term interest rates from Bernanke's perspective.

In February 2018, Jerome Powell had taken over as chair of the FOMC. At first glance, the macroeconomic conditions inherited by Powell appeared favorable for continued stability: unemployment and inflation were low, and the economy had been steadily growing for nearly a decade. Yet despite the appearance of stability, the economy faced significant risks that required the Federal Reserve's attention. Was an uptick in inflation imminent, and if so, should Powell raise rates to limit any inflationary pressure? Or was the economy still operating below capacity, and if so, should the Federal Reserve take a more accommodative stance? To gain perspective, Powell needed to look back at the past fifty years of monetary policy in the United States.

In mid-February 2009, amid the global financial crisis, the news was grim. The U.S. economy had been in recession since December 2007. If the downturn lasted into early spring, it would become America's longest postwar recession. The economy had shed 3.5 million jobs over the previous 12 months, the worst 12-month period on record. Bank lending was plummeting; the few banks with funds available were holding onto them. With this massive shift into liquid assets (cash and cash equivalents) and away from lending of any sort (even for productive uses or, in many cases, the working capital firms needed to survive), the economy would likely grind to a halt. On this brisk mid-February day in Washington, Timothy Geithner and Ben Bernanke rolled up their sleeves and reevaluated their plans to address the nearly impossible task of righting the ship. In terms of monetary and fiscal policy, were they doing all they could to halt this epic slide? Were they doing too much?

A hedge-fund strategist had two decisions to make. First, what was the path of core euro zone long-term interest rates likely to be over the next year? Was the dramatic decline in German long rates over the past few years an aberration that would soon be reversed, or was it part of the “new normal” that would persist for some time? Second, how would periphery long rates evolve relative to core rates? That is—the spread between long rates in the likes of Greece, Spain, and Ireland and those in Germany—how would they evolve over the next year? Was the dramatic divergence in euro zone long rates likely to persist, or would the coming year see a continuation of the modest reconvergence that has occurred since mid–2012? He knew many factors influenced long-term interest rates; he would have to use his entire toolkit to address this issue. The evidence was in no way clear-cut. Some factors pointed toward lower German rates, some toward higher, some toward a widening of euro zone spreads (even a dissolution of the euro zone as we know it?), and some toward reconvergence.

This case invites students to assess the impact that Brexit, the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union, might have on a New York–based hedge fund's portfolio and, specifically, its UK assets. The case is designed to prompt students to make market assumptions and investment hypotheses based on a combination of numerical data and qualitative information. It requires no numerical computations; instead, it asks the student to interpret both markets' short-term reactions to the Brexit vote and strategy shifts from UK and European business leaders in order to evaluate longer-term implications for the economies of the United Kingdom, Europe, and the world.