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The purpose of this paper is to test whether financial crises themselves provide some degree of ex post discipline. In other words, is there learning from the mistakes…
The purpose of this paper is to test whether financial crises themselves provide some degree of ex post discipline. In other words, is there learning from the mistakes associated with crises? The authors test this hypothesis on credit growth, a frequent contributor to banking crises.
The study uses statistical tests (comparison of means) on a sample of 72 banking crises, the onset of which occurred between 1980 and 2008. Tests for significance of the difference are conducted using Kolmogorov–Smirnov equality in distribution tests.
The results show that real credit growth fell substantially (relative to average) by about 8 per cent points from pre- to post-crisis periods, and that average banking regulation and supervision strengthens after a crisis.
This paper provides empirical support for the proposition that while financial markets may fail to give sufficient warning signals before a financial crisis, they may discipline governments to undertake reforms in the aftermath of a crisis.
The recurrence of banking crises throughout the 1980s and 1990s, and in the more recent 2008‐09 global financial crisis, has led to an expanding empirical literature on…
The recurrence of banking crises throughout the 1980s and 1990s, and in the more recent 2008‐09 global financial crisis, has led to an expanding empirical literature on crisis explanation and prediction. The purpose of this paper is to provide an analytical review of proxies for and important determinants of banking crises‐credit growth, financial liberalization, bank regulation and supervision.
The study surveys the banking crisis literature by comparing proxies for and measures of banking crises and policy‐related variables in the literature. Advantages and disadvantages of different proxies are discussed.
Disagreements about determinants of banking crises are in part explained by the difference in the chosen proxies used in empirical models. The usefulness of different proxies depends partly on constraints in terms of time and country coverage but also on what particular policy question is asked.
The study offers a comprehensive analysis of measurements of banking crises, credit growth, financial liberalization and banking regulations and concludes with an assessment of existing proxies and databases. Since, the review points to the choice of proxies that best fit specific research objectives, it should serve as a reference point for empirical researchers in the banking crisis area.