Search results

1 – 10 of over 5000
To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 19 July 2011

Ruth Saurin and John Ratcliffe

This paper aims to demonstrate that it is important to have a methodological process that is reflexive and flexible to achieve fluid interactions that add rigour and

Downloads
1442

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to demonstrate that it is important to have a methodological process that is reflexive and flexible to achieve fluid interactions that add rigour and energy to the overall process of a built environment project.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper outlines the Prospective through Scenarios futures process used in a study called the “Workplace of the Future”. It also discusses how and why the methodology evolves over the course of the project with participant feedback as the main source of information for the analysis.

Findings

Change is the one factor in the Prospective through Scenarios methodological development that ensures the participants to think deeply and laterally in a futures process, from which a value‐driven process is achieved.

Originality/value

Novel futures techniques have been applied to a discipline that is usually reactive and quantitative – workplace provision and facilities management.

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 1 January 2006

John S. Ratcliffe

To reflect, first, that the global changes now washing over the people are probably far more profound than is commonly understood, demanding a new mindset on the part of

Downloads
2217

Abstract

Purpose

To reflect, first, that the global changes now washing over the people are probably far more profound than is commonly understood, demanding a new mindset on the part of corporate organisations. Second, that this cultural transformation engenders a fresh set of challenges facing the corporate world in tackling the inherent complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity which need a futures‐oriented approach to comprehend and capitalize upon societal change. And third, that this organisational metamorphosis will best be understood, planned and managed through a process of foresight or prospective.

Design/methodology/approach

The particular methodology proposed is that of “prospective through scenarios” which has been developed by The Futures Academy at DIT, and the five formative fields, together with their respective key action areas, have been identified from a review of the relevant recent literature and an evaluation of a number of case studies in which the author has been involved.

Findings

Apart from the more detailed findings recounted throughout the text, the main conclusion drawn is that new kinds of corporatism will require the “proactivity” of prospective founded on the “imagineering” of scenarios to shape their future in a changing world.

Originality/value

In identifying some of the “grand challenges facing corporations in the modern world, the article conceives a mind‐set that accepts” that one can shape the future if one first imagines it.

Details

Foresight, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 31 October 2008

Ruth Saurin, John Ratcliffe and Marie Puybaraud

The changes now being experienced in the workplace, driven by market pressures, changing demographics and new technologies, are real and accelerating. Since change remains…

Downloads
2481

Abstract

Purpose

The changes now being experienced in the workplace, driven by market pressures, changing demographics and new technologies, are real and accelerating. Since change remains the one constant when it comes to workplace planning, further transformations within the workplace over the next 20 or 30 years can be expected. Hence, this paper aims to demonstrate how to use a scenario planning futures approach in a changing, complex and uncertain workplace environment. As well as provoke thought and discussion about its long‐term future.

Design/methodology/approach

At the Futures Academy in Dublin Institute of Technology, a systematic methodology for exploring and shaping the future has been developed, called the “Prospective through scenarioprocess. Each stage of the process is discussed in detail throughout this paper, as well as how the process is applied in the Johnson Controls workplace of the future study.

Findings

The creative “futures studies” approach can deal effectively with change, uncertainty and complexity in the workplace environment, by allowing those concerned to think, plan and act proactively rather than reactively as well as provide effective facilities management and real estate strategies.

Practical implications

Real estate organisations need to take the long view, for the greatest risk of our time is being overtaken by inevitable surprises that could have been foreseen and for which we could have been prepared.

Originality/value

Discussion and debate about the future of the workplace is inevitable and futures tools and techniques can facilitate this process.

Details

Journal of Corporate Real Estate, vol. 10 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-001X

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 1 April 2004

Ruth Kelly, Lorcan Sirr and John Ratcliffe

We are living in times of unprecedented global change and upheaval and over the next ten to 20 years governments, organisations and individuals will face increasing…

Downloads
2192

Abstract

We are living in times of unprecedented global change and upheaval and over the next ten to 20 years governments, organisations and individuals will face increasing difficulties in an environment of growing complexity, heightened uncertainty and a quickening pace of change. The concept of sustainable development implies the reconciliation of long‐term socio‐economic development, environmental protection and quality of life; essentially it is concerned with the future. Unfortunately, the potential for linking “futures thinking” to debates about sustainable development at local and regional government levels is relatively undeveloped, particularly in Ireland. Responding to this challenge, The Futures Academy at Dublin Institute of Technology, Ireland, was established in January 2003 to provide both a research and consultancy forum for future‐proofing policies and strategies using the “prospective through scenarios” methodology. This paper describes the evolution of sustainable development in Ireland and the generic field of futures thinking, with particular focus on the prospective process which may assist key local policy makers and stakeholders move towards sustainable development for future generations in Ireland.

Details

Foresight, vol. 6 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 11 September 2020

Armin Firoozpour, Ehsan Marzban and Ali Asghar Pourezzat

Thinking and deciding about the future of the city as a combination of complex and uncertain systems is extremely difficult. This complexity, uncertainty and difficulty…

Abstract

Purpose

Thinking and deciding about the future of the city as a combination of complex and uncertain systems is extremely difficult. This complexity, uncertainty and difficulty will be increased when our thoughts and decisions address the city’s long-term future. Considering these issues, the need for future thinking and alternate thinking in the process of urban management and planning becomes even more necessary. The purpose of this paper is to identify and explain the alternate futures of Tehran.

Design/methodology/approach

For this purpose, this study have tried to study alternate future images of Tehran in an archetypal form of “growth, collapse, disciplined society and transformed society” using “Dator’s Four Generic Alternate Futures” method.

Findings

These alternate futures, after identifying their key trends and drivers, have been narrated in the form of four scenarios called: “capital business center,” “crossing the fate of ray,” “Tehran family” and “Tehran investigators.” Increasing the authority and responsibility of the local governance, modification of Tehran urban management model and development of voluntary cooperation and democratic participation, are among the policy recommendations made on the basis of these images.

Originality/value

Achieving these images in parallel with identifying the most important challenges and opportunities in alternate futures will provide the basis for policy-making in Tehran’s future urban governance. It can be a creative model for developing future images for other cities.

Details

foresight, vol. 23 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 17 April 2007

John S. Ratcliffe

Downloads
473

Abstract

Details

Property Management, vol. 25 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 1 January 2005

Alex Wright

The purpose of this paper is to undertake a critical consideration of the role of scenarios as prospective sensemaking devices through the dual theoretical perspectives of…

Downloads
3951

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to undertake a critical consideration of the role of scenarios as prospective sensemaking devices through the dual theoretical perspectives of social constructionism and narrative.

Design/methodology/approach

The scholarly literature in the fields of strategy and scenario thinking, sensemaking, social construction and narrative are analysed and critically discussed, with their major contributions to the debate identified.

Findings

The main findings suggest that transformational change is observed to occur through inductive strategizing at the organization's periphery, in contrast with deductive strategy making at its centre. This causes one to question one's understanding of the strategist as a rational planner. An alternative perception of the strategist as interpretive bricoleur is offered. Adopting a scenario outlook and developing the capacities that comprise sensemaking are said to enhance the abilities of the inductive strategist. Through this, managers are more open to the unexpected and are able to construct meaning from uncertainty and ambiguity, laying the foundations for transformational strategizing. Originality/value – This paper is of value to both practitioners and scholars. For those involved in practical scenario construction it proposes a refocusing of scenarios from influencing managers’ decision making to enhancing their sensemaking capacities. For scholars, it supports and joins the call for strategy researchers to focus on how strategy in organisations is constructed and offers conceptual pointers on what may prove fruitful avenues to pursue. The paper concludes by proposing that through prospective sensemaking individuals can construct meaningful interpretations of their socially constructed worlds.

Details

Management Decision, vol. 43 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 14 March 2016

C. R. Correa and C. H. Cagnin

– This paper aims to propose a model, based on strategic simulation and scenario planning, to improve the decision-making process in the Brazilian defence area.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose a model, based on strategic simulation and scenario planning, to improve the decision-making process in the Brazilian defence area.

Design/methodology/approach

Participants are disposed in three levels: decision-makers team – which goes beyond the Ministry of Defence (and military services) alone and includes other representatives of the executive and legislative branches; political and strategic advisory team – civilian representatives with a broad understanding of the national and international contexts that can contribute to developing insights and shaping the forces that may contribute to the nation’s future; and experts database— experts in fields of interest to national defence, comprising representatives of several sectors and broad areas of knowledge, including scholars, scientists, politicians, military, industry, among others.

Findings

The planning and preparation of national defence strategies require a long-term approach, which is multidisciplinary, participatory and contextualized to the geopolitical and institutional frames of the country.

Research limitations/implications

However, despite many policy papers intentions, defence issues have always been considered a matter for the military arena due to the country’s cultural background.

Practical/implications

Because decisions about defence have long-range impacts and political implications, policy-makers should shape them bearing in mind a complex and politically shared foresight process.

Social/implications

This proposed planning process enables a participatory engagement with some civil organizations and individuals as well as amplifies their commitment in national defence issues.

Originality/value

The proposal is innovative in South America, considering that it encompasses integrated simulations on participatory foresight processes as well as broadened the civilian–military dynamic relationship and the diverse viewpoints in defence implications analysis to include a wider share of the Brazilian society.

Details

Foresight, vol. 18 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 23 June 2020

Jean Paul Pinto and Javier Medina

This paper aims to propose a new strategic foresight process that combines aspects from science fiction, speculative design and tools linked to organizational processes

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose a new strategic foresight process that combines aspects from science fiction, speculative design and tools linked to organizational processes, first, to generate potential new services and products and, second, to reduce problems associated with the construction of low-impact and irrelevant scenarios for decision-making processes. As a new proposal, it invites reflection and debate.

Design/methodology/approach

After reviewing the literature on the key concepts that represent the essence of strategic foresight, as well as the traditional processes to reflect on the future, a proposal for a new hybrid, integrative foresight process that allows moving from imagination to the materialization of scenarios will be presented.

Findings

The new hybrid process makes evident the need to articulate strategic foresight with other areas of knowledge and management tools to build scenarios with greater impact on decision-making and greater added value from strategic foresight to organizational processes.

Originality/value

The proposed integrative model articulates tools that already exist, but the originality of the proposal lies in that there are no models that integrate science fiction, speculative design, and other organizational tools in a single process.

Details

foresight, vol. 22 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 9 November 2015

Anne Marchais-Roubelat and Fabrice Roubelat

– This paper aims to introduce movements in scenario methodology, to design a moving strategic foresight approach.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to introduce movements in scenario methodology, to design a moving strategic foresight approach.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors firstly question the limits of plausibility from an ontological and epistemological perspective to expand scenarios beyond the boundaries of end-states. To incorporate ongoing changes in scenario methodology, the authors propose to explore scenario transformations within the conceptual framework of action-based scenarios.

Findings

The authors discuss consequences of playing strategies within ongoing scenarios, as well as the research directions about moving scales, stakeholders’ dominance and time issues.

Originality/value

The paper proposes a method to distort and transform scenarios. The authors suggest supplementing strategic foresight in iterative processes to challenge the boundaries of plausible futures, bridging the gap between theoretical ever-changing processes and the moving rhythms of actions.

Details

Foresight, vol. 17 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 5000