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Article
Publication date: 3 July 2017

Arvydas Jadevicius and Simon Hugh Huston

The purpose of this paper is to assess the duration of the UK commercial property cycles, their volatility and persistence to gauge future market direction.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to assess the duration of the UK commercial property cycles, their volatility and persistence to gauge future market direction.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs a novel approach to dissect cycles in a form of a three-step algorithm. First, the Hodrick-Prescott de-trends the selected variables. Second, volatility (measured by the variance) screens periods of atypical fluctuations in the series. Finally, the series is regressed against its past values to assess the level of persistence. The sequential steps screen the length of the cycles in UK commercial property market to facilitate interpretation.

Findings

The estimates suggest that UK commercial property market follows an eight-year cycle. Combined modelling results indicate that the current market trend is likely to change over the coming year. The modelling suggests increasing probability of a market correction in late 2016/early 2017.

Practical implications

This updated appreciation of the UK commercial property cycle duration allows for better market timing and investment decision making.

Originality/value

The paper adds additional evidence on the contested issue of UK commercial property cycle duration.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 35 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 June 2022

Johnson Kampamba, Simon Kachepa and Kgalaletso Lesobea

The purpose of this study was to assess real estate cycles and their impact on property values in Gaborone, Botswana. Investors and real estate professionals in Botswana rarely…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to assess real estate cycles and their impact on property values in Gaborone, Botswana. Investors and real estate professionals in Botswana rarely assess property cycles when purchasing property. This study therefore, aims to assess whether real estate cycles do exist, their duration and the type of real estate cycle that Botswana experiences.

Design/methodology/approach

Data was collected from primary and secondary sources. This included sourcing out information at the Deeds Registry Office in Gaborone on residential property sales and a questionnaire to 100 property investors. A record was made of properties that were sold for the period of 16 years starting from the year 2000 to 2016. Secondary data on the other hand was also collected from published and unpublished books, academic journals, professional journals, magazines, reports and monographs. A quantitative approach was used in this study. Data was analysed using Microsoft Excel and subsequently presented in form of tables and graphs.

Findings

The findings from the literature review revealed that there are four phases in the real estate cycles (recovery, expansion, oversupply and recession) and each has distinct features that an investor must be aware of to avoid consequences in the property market. The results from the data analysis revealed that real estate cycles do exist in Botswana as identified during the past 16 years. The cycle that Botswana experiences is called the kitchen cycle. It was also evident that Botswana experienced three cycles lasting five to six years each. Furthermore, it was discovered that all phases in the real estate cycles affect property values.

Research limitations/implications

There is relatively little information about property cycles and their timing in Botswana. Therefore, this study may assist valuation surveyors to make promptly informed decisions on property investment through cycle assessment and hence positively inform the public and financial stakeholders. Society might find this beneficial in as far as decision-making is concerned when thinking of investing in real estate. The current system at the deeds office is cumbersome and time consuming, thus making it difficult for the researchers and possibly the public to analyse the property market. This study therefore, may encourage the Deeds Registry Office to computerize their records.

Practical implications

There is relatively little information about property cycles and their timing in Botswana. Therefore, this study may assist valuation surveyors to make promptly informed decisions on property investment through cycle assessment and hence positively inform the public and financial stakeholders.

Social implications

Society might find this beneficial in as far as decision-making is concerned when thinking of investing in real estate.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first of its kind in Botswana to extend the knowledge of real estate cycles and their impact on property cycles in Botswana.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 16 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 July 2020

Arvydas Jadevicius and Peter van Gool

This study is a practice undertaking examining three main concerns that currently dominate Dutch housing market debate: how long is the cycle, will the current house price…

Abstract

Purpose

This study is a practice undertaking examining three main concerns that currently dominate Dutch housing market debate: how long is the cycle, will the current house price inflation continue and is housing market in a bubble. With national house prices reaching record highs across all major cities, future market prospects became a topic of significant debate among policymakers, investors and the populace.

Design/methodology/approach

A triangulation of well-established academic methods is used to perform investigation. The models include Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, volatility autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH approximation) and right tail augmented Dickey–Fuller (Rtadf) test (bubble screening technique).

Findings

Interestingly, over the years from 1985 to 2019 research period, filtering extracts only one Dutch national housing cycle. This is a somewhat distinct characteristic compared to other advanced Western economies (inter alia the UK and the USA) where markets tend to experience 8- to 10-year gyrations. Volatility and Rtadf test suggest that current house prices in most Dutch cities are in excess of historical averages and statistical thresholds. House price levels in Almere, Amsterdam, The Hague, Groningen, Rotterdam and Utrecht are of particular concern.

Originality/value

Retail investors should therefore be cautious as they are entering the market at the time of elevated housing values. For institutional investors, those investing in long-term, housing in key Dutch metropolitan areas, even if values decline, is still an attractive investment conduit.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research , vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 April 2018

Moshe Szweizer

The purpose of this paper is to extend the studies of commercial property cycles by providing a cross-field approach to property markets modelling.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to extend the studies of commercial property cycles by providing a cross-field approach to property markets modelling.

Design/methodology/approach

The approach allows for the incorporation of market shocks into the property cycle model as fundamental building blocks; assessment of overall market absorption generated through cyclic activity; and timing estimation of major market events. An ideal model is first constructed, which relies on an observation that a property cycle consists of four distinctive phases. These are described formally through appropriate formulae. Subsequently, it is observed that an analogous cyclic behaviour is described in physics as the Otto cycle. The formulae derived in physics for the Otto cycle are now redefined so to be applicable to the property market.

Findings

The model has been applied to the London office market, both to the historic and the current data sets. This allowed for the comparison of model predicted absorption and vacancies with the historic records, providing for assessment of the model accuracy. The model predicted that absorption was also compared with historic space supply allowing for estimation of oversupply and resultant vacancies. London office submarkets were analysed and compared to each other, allowing for estimation of their relative attractiveness as perceived by tenants and developers.

Practical implications

The model may be used to estimate cycle generated absorption; therefore, over and under supply of space due to developers’ activity may be assessed. It is also possible to use the model to assess the timing of future market peaks and troughs.

Originality/value

This is the first research directly applying the methodology developed in physics to commercial property cycles.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 36 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 February 2017

Charalambos Pitros and Yusuf Arayici

The study looks at the characteristics of upswings and downswings for UK housing cycles. Specifically, the purpose of this paper is to empirically analyse cycles in house prices…

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Abstract

Purpose

The study looks at the characteristics of upswings and downswings for UK housing cycles. Specifically, the purpose of this paper is to empirically analyse cycles in house prices and housing affordability on the characteristics of persistence, magnitude and severity.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper draws upon the triangular methodology of cycles and utilises housing data from the last three decades.

Findings

From an empirical perspective, the study obtained four main results. First, the graphical trajectory of cycles in house price and housing affordability is highly synchronized. Second, upturns in both cycles tend to be longer than downturns on average. Third, the recent upturn in house prices and housing affordability is characterised by larger duration, magnitude and severity than the earlier case. Fourth, the latest downturn in both cycles is highly synchronised in terms of time occurrence, persistence, magnitude and severity; in addition, in both cases, the latest downturn is considerably smaller than the previous one. The study additionally indicates that on average the length of a complete house price and housing affordability cycle is 19 years on a peak-to-peak basis.

Research limitations/implications

This paper is essentially exploratory and raises a number of questions for further investigation. Future research should, first, arrive at a more nuanced definition of affordability and, second, examine causality. The fact that two phenomena appear to have some significant synchronicity is not an indication that they are interdependent, although logic would suggest they might be.

Originality/value

This is among the few papers that analyses cycles in UK house prices. It is the first study that draws attention to the housing affordability cycle and the first to compare cycles in house prices with cycles in housing affordability.

Details

Property Management, vol. 35 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 October 2009

Claudio Giannotti and Lucia Gibilaro

The minimization of financial losses and costs stemming from the credit recovery process is strictly connected with the time necessary to complete the procedure: in real estate…

Abstract

Purpose

The minimization of financial losses and costs stemming from the credit recovery process is strictly connected with the time necessary to complete the procedure: in real estate credits, it depends on the liquidity and the efficiency of the enforcement procedures. The purpose of this paper is to test the relevance of the economic cycle in Italy on the determinants of the recovery process both at national and regional level.

Design/methodology/approach

The first step is to identify the determinants of the real estate loans recovery process duration by the means of the review of the existing literature. The second step develops an empirical analysis to appraise the relevance of the economic cycle on the liquidity of the real estate market and efficiency of real estate enforcement proceedings. The relevance of the economic cycle is verified through, first, a correlation analysis of the selected indexes with the national and regional gross domestic product (GDP) and, second, a regression analysis of the selected indexes on the current and lagged GDP. As it concerns the liquidity of the real estate market, a turnover index is considered stratified both at sectoral and geographical level, while for the real estate enforcement procedures the paper analyzes indexes based on both the turnover of ended and filed proceedings and the pending proceedings outstanding at the year‐end.

Findings

The empirical results demonstrated that, in some sectors and geographic areas, the market liquidity is influenced by the national and the regional economic cycles, both expressed at current values and, moreover, the sign of the relationship is frequently negative. As it concerns the enforcement procedures efficiency, empirical evidence does not support the direct influence of the current or past economic cycle on it, leaving room for the relevance of the competent court specific features.

Originality/value

The paper considers the Italian market, that is featured by a moderate level of the average loan to value and, above all, by lengthiness administrative procedures. The paper contributes to the existing literature through the integrated examination of the relationship between the recovery process determinants and the national and regional economic cycles over different geographic areas.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 2 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2000

K.C. Wong

This paper presents a simple method to assess the value of a commercial property, considering the cost and timing of refurbishment. It is constructed on the understanding that net…

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Abstract

This paper presents a simple method to assess the value of a commercial property, considering the cost and timing of refurbishment. It is constructed on the understanding that net rental income tends to decrease as the property ages, while maintenance cost increases with time. As a result, there is a desirable duration of successive leases, at the end of which refurbishment can take place. A suitable choice of this duration could give a higher value to the property. By assessing the value of a property over one refurbishment cycle, values for similar successive cycles can be capitalised. This approach is equivalent to finding the annual equivalent of the discounted cash flow over one cycle, and then capitalising it as if it is a constant income to perpetuity.

Details

Property Management, vol. 18 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 1999

Patrick Wilson and John Okunev

Understanding cyclical activity is an important component of efficient portfolio management. Property appraisal models that do not explicitly take into account cyclical…

2203

Abstract

Understanding cyclical activity is an important component of efficient portfolio management. Property appraisal models that do not explicitly take into account cyclical fluctuations may produce unrealistic valuation estimates resulting in property assets being incorrectly added to or removed from the general investment portfolio. In this paper we use conventional spectral analysis techniques to examine property and financial assets for evidence of cycles and co‐cycles. One finding is that the very pronounced cyclical patterns that appear in direct real estate markets and the economy as a whole are very much less obvious once they have filtered through to securitised property markets and financial assets markets.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 August 2013

Richard Grover and Christine Grover

The purpose of this paper is to review what is known about property cycles following the financial crisis of 2008.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to review what is known about property cycles following the financial crisis of 2008.

Design/methodology/approach

The method is to review the literature on property cycles published since the 1930s, to examine the extent to which endogenous causes have been identified as distinct from exogenous factors that may have produced cyclicality resulting from weak adjustment mechanisms but not cycles.

Findings

Whilst there is broad consensus that the property market has delays in adjustment which produce oscillations resulting from external shocks, it is more difficult to identify endogenous causes of cycles, though there are some possible candidates, notably technical progress.

Practical implications

The slump after 2008 has cost savers and taxpayers dear, so better means of predicting cycles so that policy makers can mitigate them is desirable.

Originality/value

The debate about whether property cycles result from exogenous shocks or endogenous causes is in danger of being lost sight of. If the former, then the property industry is a channel through which external factors feed through to the economy, albeit magnified by weak adjustment factors. If there are endogenous causes, then policy makers would be unwise to overlook their potential destabilising impact on the economy.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 31 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 April 2001

Antonio García‐Ferrer and Ana del Río

We analyze historical business cycles as a sum of short‐ and medium‐term cycles defined for a particular class of unobserved component models. By associating the trend with the…

Abstract

We analyze historical business cycles as a sum of short‐ and medium‐term cycles defined for a particular class of unobserved component models. By associating the trend with the low frequencies of the pseudo‐spectrum in the frequency domain, manipulation of the spectral bandwidth will allow us to define subjective trends with specific properties. In this paper, we show how these properties can be exploited to anticipate business cycle turning points, not only historically but also in a true ex‐ante exercise. This procedure is applied to US pre‐Second World War GNP quarterly data taking as reference the NBER and Romer’s business cycle datings.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 28 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

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