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The purpose of this paper is to compare the value outcomes of the cost approach to the DCF profits method when valuing specialised property under different scenarios as a test for choice of method or model uncertainty; and to quantify valuation uncertainty under each scenario and to argue for an increasing adoption of the profits method of valuation.

A qualitative case study approach was used to analyse four physical valuations performed in practice under four specific scenarios, namely, a business-as-usual scenario, an underperforming business scenario, an expanding capacity scenario and a combined business-as-usual funding a start-up joint venture scenario.

The cost approach relative to the DCF profits approach consistently under-values specialised property under business-as-usual and business expanding scenarios while it over-values in instances of underperforming business scenario.

Financial institutions that predominantly uses or accepts the cost approach for valuing specialised property should consider adopting the DCF profits approach as the default approach when valuing for mortgage lending purposes. Business owners of specialised properties should contract practitioners knowledgeable and skilled in the application of the DCF profits method.

This paper quantifies choice of method or model uncertainty of four different scenarios of specialised properties where both the cost approach and DCF profits methods of valuation were employed. It suggests the adoption of the DCF profits method as the default method of valuation for specialised property.

Outlines the context within which the need for valuations of leisure property is developing. Arguing that the profits method, usually adopted for the valuation of leisure assets, is little understood on a research‐based theoretical level, introduces the initial findings of research into practitioner understanding of the method, in particular the capitalization rates adopted. Also suggests that the time is right to critically re‐examine the methods used in practice and sets out suggested pre‐requisites for the development of a sustainable and defensible approach to the valuation of commercial leisure property.

The purpose of this paper is twofold: primary, to argue that the profits method, specifically a discounted cash flow (DCF)-based profits method, should be the preferred method of valuation when valuing specialised property. Secondary, to make technical recommendations in the application of the method.

Literature was reviewed on the theory of the profits method as well as physical valuations performed in practice. Improvements for the profits method are suggested from the review of six valuations conducted in South Africa in the specialised property sectors. A qualitative approach is followed in the research as broad principles are extracted from the valuation reports as implications and improvements for the profits method.

The profits method is more flexible and sophisticated than the cost approach in taking into account systematic and unsystematic risk. The profits method is more accurate than the cost approach in delivering a true reflection of the value of specialised property for any purpose but specifically for mortgage lending purposes and reduces the credit exposure risk of financial institutions. It also decreases pricing inefficiencies to be exploited by buyers and sellers.

Three improvements to the profits method are suggested. First, revenue could be forecasted based on a probability-weighted approach. Second, a modified capitalisation rate is suggested to the capitalisation rate formula in the calculation of G. Third, a market rental aggregation anchoring and judgement-based approach is suggested as rationale for determining the hypothetical rental split.

There seems to be a general lack in literature on the profits method of valuation and its application to specialised properties, specifically a DCF-based approach, with this paper being a technical contribution to the body of knowledge on this topic.

Considers that the relationship between a property′s trading potential and the tenant′s ability to pay rent is the basis of one of the five recognised methods of valuation: the profits (or accounts) method. Discusses the basic concept behind the methodology and investigates the circumstances under which surveyors currently use profits within their valuations. Concludes that more discussion between valuers and their clients on how they arrive at their valuations and the definitions of value that they use would be beneficial.

The purpose of this paper is to explain the rationale and methodology applied to the rental valuation of wet led (i.e. pub or bar) retail leisure outlets. The paper does not cover the valuation of other leisure property (e.g. restaurants, hotels).

The paper opens with a brief outline of the factors and legislative changes which have shaped the public house market over the past 15 years. This is followed by a explanation of the rental valuation methods in use in the pub and bar sector and examination of the impact of some current issues – in particular the impact of the full implementation of the Licensing Act 2003 along with other legislative and regulatory changes. Finally the paper comments on some of the issues relevant to freehold investment purchases of public houses and bars.

As a consequence of the nature of the industry, profits based valuations continue to dominate the market and this raises difficult questions of method and interpretation particularly, as the market is further complicated by legislative and regulatory changes introducing greater uncertainty. With regard to public house and bar freehold investment changes in the structure of the market have had a significant impact on perceptions of the investment quality of the leisure sector with consequences both for flows of capital and the structure of yields in the market place.

Valuers need to be aware that freehold investment values in this sector have potentially peaked and that investment decisions in the sector should be based upon sustainable rent.

The paper is of use to all valuers in this niche market and provides a practical understanding of the profits test method of valuation from which a sustainable rent may be derived.

Valuation is the process of determining Market Value. Property valuation, as with the valuation of all assets, is an estimation of price in the market. It is value in exchange. The valuer role is to determine the appropriate approach, the method and use the right model to achieve this aim as best as possible. It is a combination of analysing the market and determining the critical variables for the valuation method/model. The method is separate from the valuation process which should be followed (according to the International Valuation Standards Council Valuation Standards) regardless the valuation method chosen. There are valuation approaches, valuation methods and, as a subset of the methods, techniques or models.

This practice briefing is an overview of the Valuation Methods and Models available to the valuer and comments on the appropriateness of valuation each in assessing Market Value for specific property types.

This briefing is a review of the valuation methods and models and models that can be applied to determine market value.

The role of the valuer in practice is to identify the method of valuation and then apply the correct mathematical model for the valuation task in hand.

This provides guidance on how valuations can be presented to the client in accordance with the International Valuation Standards.

Reviews past and current methods of valuation, analyses rental growth and explains the thinking behind bids made by players in this developing market. Provides sample valuations for a variety of pub rentals. Concludes that there is scope to increase the reliability of profits method valuations.

The valuation and management of landed properties owned by public authorities provides a useful case study for developing arguments relating to the “test of a good valuation” and in particular the inter‐relationship between purpose and method of valuation. The paper reviews the changing requirements placed on the valuation process and the growing and recognised need for valuers to be cognisant of the difference between the concepts of value‐in‐exchange (market price valuations) and value‐in‐use (calculations of worth) and to question the underlying purpose of valuations in the management process. Research work by the authors highlights the difficulties in accommodating these changes in the field of publicly‐owned leisure properties. The paper concludes that such valuations as have been prepared for leisure properties do not aid good management and are peripheral to the management decision‐making process. It suggests that for valuations to gain relevance to managers of owner‐occupied property, new concepts should be debated. In the public sector, “social value” is postulated as one avenue worthy of exploration.

The purpose of this paper is to establish whether a terminal value is a substantial amount of the final figure in a hotel’s valuation. Malta’s scenario has been delved into. This due to the fact that owing to Malta’s high population density and its restrictive land area, land values attract a high premium as compared with larger developed countries. Other matters such as earnings’ multipliers derived from a cap rate (initial yield), CAPEX has also been delved into.

The methodologies adopted in hotel valuation practice has been delved into. An extensive literature review is undertaken to analyse the earnings multiplier adopted by various authors over the past 30-year period. The hotel cap rate (initial yield) has been compared with similar yields adopted in the institutional and property markets and then compares to market-based data. A discussion is undertaken on the validity of adopting discounted cash flow, as against the short cut market appraisal approach. Capitalization rates, cap rates have also been referred to as obtained from the academic and practitioners field and compared. Depreciation and the anticipated annual accommodation charges have been analysed. A database of hotel rooms value over the past 20-year period has been referred.

A table outlines the earnings’ multipliers in perpetuity or for the limited expected design life for various cap rates. This data will act as a guide in guiding practitioners to establish an earnings’ multiplier to be applied in their valuation methodology. An example in the Appendix clarifies the manner in which this data table is to be utilized. The finding of this example notes that for this hotel in Malta, as constructed on private land, the terminal value for this development hovers around the 30 per cent of the market value.

This analysis is based on five valuations as undertaken on five hotels in Malta with classification grades varying from III to V. This notes that the terminal value varies within a range of 9-45 per cent of the total value. This analysis has to be undertaken for other countries for a global range of land terminal values percentages to be established.

Establishing the terminal value of a hotel business, will offer greater security for secured lending facilities required. It will further act as an important tool to establish the feasibility of a hotel development.

Updated insight is given to existing hotel valuation methodologies by delving into the workings of the earnings’ multiplier and establishes that in today’s market the terminal value of the hotel basis has to be accounted for. The above findings are based on a link between theory and practice.

The purpose of this paper is threefold: the primary purpose is to suggest a real estate paradigm spectrum to act as reference for the contextualisation of observed market phenomenon in system terms; the secondary purpose is for the spectrum to contextualise the efficacy of real estate and valuation theory, methods and techniques; and the tertiary purpose is to propose a confidence score for reporting uncertainty to the end user of a valuation report.

Literature was reviewed on the concepts of risk and uncertainty, rationality and several systems thinking domains.

The framework can provide context to observed market phenomenon and distinguishes between agency and mechanism in contributing to conditions of certainty and uncertainty. The argument followed in this paper is that it is necessary to contextualise the efficacy of real estate and valuation theory, methods and models under conditions of certainty, normal uncertainty and abnormal uncertainty. The characteristics of conditions can be used as basis to develop new theory and practical application or modify existing.

Real estate economic theory can be organised in terms of the spectrum and the framework can potentially identify where further research is required and the requirements it must meet as measured against the characteristics of the framework. Current valuation methods and models can continue to be used when valuing under conditions of certainty, however, modifications to methods and models are required to account for complexity when valuing under conditions of normal uncertainty and abnormal uncertainty. The confidence score included in this paper can also be used to report the conditions of certainty/uncertainty under which the valuation was performed.

This paper aims to set the basis for new theoretical and practical developments of insights into real estate economic and valuation theory, methods and models while also contributing to the reporting of uncertainty through the proposed confidence score.