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Article
Publication date: 10 November 2020

Zied Saadaoui and Hichem Hamza

The purpose of this paper is to check if there is a procyclical lending behaviour in dual banking systems of the Golf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The study also…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to check if there is a procyclical lending behaviour in dual banking systems of the Golf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The study also tries to control for the role of Islamic banks in amplifying or mitigating the procyclicality of dual banking systems.

Design/methodology/approach

Estimation of a dynamic panel model using annual observations on a sample of 81 banks based in the GCC countries between 2005 and 2018. The study uses two business cycle indicators as dependent variables, namely, output gap and oil price gap.

Findings

The system generalilzed method of moments (GMM) estimator and robustness checks confirm the procyclical lending pattern of dual banking systems in the GCC. Estimation outputs also indicate that this procyclicality is more pronounced during economic slowdowns. However, it is found that Islamic banks’ lending is less procyclical, giving support for the stability view of Islamic banking systems. The authors think that the implementation and conduct of macroprudential policies are very challenging for banking authorities when Islamic banks and conventional banks operate under the same regulatory framework.

Research limitations/implications

The research paper may suffer from some limitations. Indeed, exploring panel data instead of country-case data may lead to a problem of heterogeneity that may underpin the credibility of the econometrical estimations. To deal with this problem by introducing a set of bank-specific and time-specific dummies. Furthermore, small N samples (N = number of individuals) may affect the reliability of the tests for the validity of instruments and autocorrelation used under the GMM estimator, leading to inefficient results. Consequently, the number of selected banks is extended as much as possible (81 banks), becoming important comparing to the time dimension of the panel.

Practical implications

Policymakers and regulators are incited to embed the perspectives of Islamic finance regarding lending cyclicality in dual banking systems, which promote the efficiency of resource allocation to the financing of assets and by consequence enabling financial stability. The stability view of the Islamic banking system could prompt policymakers and regulators to encourage the implementation and development of Islamic banks.

Originality/value

The present paper tries to overcome the lack of empirical studies on the procyclicality of dual banking. The study contributes to this novel literature in two ways. First, it focuses exclusively on GCC banking systems. In fact, compared to other emerging markets, business cycles characterizing GCC are specific because of the role played by the oil and gas revenues in the economic growth and financial system is crucial. Second, this paper brings into evidence the procyclicality of GCC banking systems also when the oil price is taken as a business cycle indicator.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. 11 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

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Central Bank Policy: Theory and Practice
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-751-6

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Article
Publication date: 6 August 2020

Xiang Gao and John Topuz

This paper aims to investigate whether the cyclicality of local real estate prices affects the systematic risk of local firms using a geography-based measure of land…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate whether the cyclicality of local real estate prices affects the systematic risk of local firms using a geography-based measure of land availability as a quasi-exogenous proxy for real estate price cyclicality.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses the geography-based land availability measure as a proxy for the procyclicality of real estate prices and the location of a firm’s headquarters as a proxy for the location of its real estate assets. Four-factor asset pricing model (market, size, value and momentum factors) is used to examine whether firms headquartered in more land-constrained metropolitan statistical areas have higher systematic risks.

Findings

The results show that real estate prices are more procyclical in areas with lower land availability and firms headquartered in these areas have higher systematic risk. This effect is more pronounced for firms with higher real estate holdings as a ratio of their tangible assets. Moreover, there are no abnormal returns to trading strategies based on land availability, consistent with stock market betas reflecting this local real estate factor.

Research limitations/implications

This paper contributes to the literature on local asset pricing factors, the collateral role of firms’ real estate holdings and the co-movement of security prices of geographically close firms.

Practical implications

This paper has important managerial implications by showing that, when firms decide on the location of their buildings (e.g. headquarters building, manufacturing plant and retail outlet), the location’s influence on systematic risk should be part of the decision-making process.

Originality/value

This paper is among the first to use a geography-based measure of land availability to study whether the procyclicality of local real estate prices influences firm risk independent of the procyclicality of the local economy. Thus, both the portfolio formed and firm-level analyses provide a more direct evidence of the positive relation between the procyclicality of local real estate prices and firm risk.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 19 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

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Article
Publication date: 7 January 2019

Sigid Eko Pramono, Hilda Rossieta and Wahyoe Soedarmono

This study aims to test whether loan loss provisions in Islamic banks is procyclical by explicitly examining the link between non-discretionary provisions and loan growth…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to test whether loan loss provisions in Islamic banks is procyclical by explicitly examining the link between non-discretionary provisions and loan growth. In the next stage, this paper tests whether the link between non-discretionary provisions and loan growth is conditional on bank capitalization and lending. This is to identify whether bank-specific factors affect the procyclicality of non-discretionary provisions and whether such procyclicality can be explained by income smoothing in banks with different capitalization and loan profiles.

Design/methodology/approach

This study is conducted in four stages. The first stage identifies the determinants of loan loss provisions. The second stage investigates whether income smoothing is affected by capitalization and lending activities. In the third stage, the link between non-discretionary provisions and loan growth is examined. In the fourth stage, this paper tests whether the link between non-discretionary provisions and loan growth is affected by bank capitalization and lending. A two-way panel-fixed effect model is used.

Findings

Non-discretionary provisions are procyclical, particularly for banks with lower capitalization and lending activities, because such banks do not conduct income smoothing. Specifically, banks with lower capitalization experience a decline in loan growth when non-discretionary provisions to cover credit risk increase.

Research limitations/implications

The dataset used in this study follows Soedarmono et al. (2017) and does not enable to differentiate types of financing products in Islamic banks that may exacerbate or mitigate the procyclicality of non-discretionary provisions.

Originality/value

This paper extends prior literature on the procyclicality of loan loss provisions by specifically investigating the influence of non-discretionary provisions on loan growth in Islamic banks and whether such relationship depends on the role of income smoothing undertaken by banks with different levels of capitalization and lending. This paper builds on the work of Soedarmono et al. (2017) in which they do not explicitly examine the relationship between loan loss provisions and loan growth.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

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Article
Publication date: 15 November 2011

Stefan Schwerter

The financial crisis 2007‐2009 calls for a regulatory response. A crucial element of this task is the treatment of systemic risk. Basel III gains centre stage in this…

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Abstract

Purpose

The financial crisis 2007‐2009 calls for a regulatory response. A crucial element of this task is the treatment of systemic risk. Basel III gains centre stage in this process. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to evaluate Basel III, examining its ability to reduce systemic risk.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper highlights the importance of reducing systemic risk to achieve the goal of overall financial stability. By first focusing on the theoretical foundations of systemic risk, this paper explores and analyzes the crucial aspects of this almost impalpable risk type. It further investigates the current regulation of systemic risk, clearly showing Basel II's inability to reduce it. Then, it evaluates the Basel Committee's efforts to address these weaknesses through Basel III by investigating its incentives and its ability to reduce obvious drawbacks of Basel II as well as systemic risk factors.

Findings

The findings show that there are still adjustments necessary. Although the development of Basel III is well advanced, providing some stabilizing incentives, there are still issues calling for closer consideration to counter all Basel II drawbacks and systemic risk factors adequately. These include: a risk‐weighted leverage ratio; a more thorough treatment of procyclicality; adjustments for the NSFR (Net Stable Funding ratio); and most importantly, the mandatory issue to internalize negative externalities from financial institutions, that is, the call for pricing systemic risk.

Originality/value

The paper not only examines the new Basel III framework, as a response to the Financial Crisis 2007‐2009, but also draws attention to specific areas which the Basel Committee and regulators need to focus on more thoroughly.

Details

Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, vol. 19 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1358-1988

Keywords

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Book part
Publication date: 25 July 2019

Perry Warjiyo and Solikin M. Juhro

Abstract

Details

Central Bank Policy: Theory and Practice
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-751-6

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Book part
Publication date: 8 November 2010

Pierre-Richard Agénor and Luiz A. Pereira da Silva

Purpose – To discuss, from the perspective of developing countries, recent proposals for reforming international standards for bank capital requirements.

Abstract

Purpose – To discuss, from the perspective of developing countries, recent proposals for reforming international standards for bank capital requirements.

Methodology/approach – After evaluating, from the viewpoint of developing countries, the effectiveness of capital requirements reforms and progress in implementing existing regulatory accords, the chapter discusses the procyclical effects of Basel regimes, and suggests a reform proposal.

Findings – Minimum bank capital requirements proposals in developing countries should be complemented by the adoption of an incremental, size-based leverage ratio.

Originality/value of chapter – This chapter contributes to enlarge the academic and policy debate related to bank capital regulation, with a particular focus on the situation of developing countries.

Details

International Banking in the New Era: Post-Crisis Challenges and Opportunities
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-913-8

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Article
Publication date: 14 May 2018

Foluso Abioye Akinsola and Sylvanus Ikhide

This paper aims to examine the relationship between commercial bank lending and business cycle in South Africa. This paper attempts to know whether commercial bank lending…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the relationship between commercial bank lending and business cycle in South Africa. This paper attempts to know whether commercial bank lending in South Africa is procyclical.

Design/methodology/approach

The model assumed that the lending behaviour is related to the business cycle. In this study, vector error correction model (VECM) is used to capture the relationship between bank lending and business cycle to accurately elicit the macroeconomic long-run relationship between business cycle and bank lending, as some banks might slow down bank lending due to some idiosyncratic factors that are not related to the downturn in the economy. This paper uses data from South African Reserve Bank for the period of 1990-2015 using VECM to understand the extent to which business cycle fluctuation can affect credit crunch in the financial system. The Johansen cointegration approach is used to ascertain whether there is indeed a long-run co-movement between credit growth and business cycle.

Findings

Results from the VECM show that there are significant linkages among the variables, especially between credit to gross domestic product (GDP) and business cycle. The influence of business cycle is seen vividly after a period of four to five years, where business cycle explains 20 per cent of the variation in the credit to GDP. South African banks tend to change their lending behaviour during upturns and downturns. This result further confirms the assertion in theory that credit follows business cycle and can amplify credit crunch. The result shows that in the long run, fluctuations in the business cycle can influence the credit growth in South Africa.

Research limitations/implications

The impulse analysis result shows that the impact of business cycle shock is very persistent and lasting. This also demonstrates that the shocks to the business cycle result have a persistent and long-lasting impact on credit. This study finds that commercial bank lending in South Africa is procyclical. It is suggested that the South African economy needs forward-looking policies that will mitigate the flow of credit to the real sector and at the same time ensure financial stability.

Originality/value

Most research papers rarely distinguish between the demand side and supply side of credit procyclicality. This report is presented to develop an econometric model that will examine demand side procyclicality. This study adopts more realistic and novel methods that will help in explaining the relationship between bank lending and business cycle in South Africa, especially after the global financial crisis. This report is presented with a concise and detailed analysis and interpretation.

Details

Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, vol. 26 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1358-1988

Keywords

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Abstract

Details

The Banking Sector Under Financial Stability
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78769-681-5

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Book part
Publication date: 17 December 2003

Joe Peek and James A Wilcox

In recessions, depository institutions accounted for most declines in mortgage flows. Recently, they partially offset their withdrawals from primary markets with…

Abstract

In recessions, depository institutions accounted for most declines in mortgage flows. Recently, they partially offset their withdrawals from primary markets with accumulations of mortgage-backed securities. Increases in direct flows into agency and private pools also countered the declining flows elsewhere. As the less-procyclical secondary mortgage markets grew and matured, they increasingly stabilized mortgage flows. During periods of international financial crises or of domestic economic stress, GSEs may have been particularly effective in stabilizing mortgage markets and moderating business cycles.

Details

Research in Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-251-1

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