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This paper formulates and analyzes Bayesian model variants for the analysis of systems of spatial panel data with binary-dependent variables. The paper focuses on cases where latent variables of cross-sectional units in an equation of the system contemporaneously depend on the values of the same and, eventually, other latent variables of other cross-sectional units. Moreover, the paper discusses cases where time-invariant effects are exogenous versus endogenous. Such models may have numerous applications in industrial economics, public economics, or international economics. The paper illustrates that the performance of Bayesian estimation methods for such models is supportive of their use with even relatively small panel data sets.

Informality is a growing phenomenon in the developing and transition country labor market context. In particular, it is noticeable that working in an informal employment relationship is often not temporary. The degree of persistence of informality in the labor market might be due to different sources: structural state dependence due to past informality experiences and spurious state dependence due to time-invariant unobserved individual effects, which can alter the propensity of being in the informal sector independently from actual informality experiences. The purpose of our paper is to study the dynamics of informality using a genuine panel data set in the Ukrainian labor market. By estimating a dynamic panel data probit model with endogenous initial conditions, we find a highly significant degree of persistence due to previous informality experiences. This result implies that policies attempting to reduce current levels of informality may have a long-lasting effect on the labor market.

Using hedging theories, we analyse the variables that determine the decision to hedge with foreign currency debt.

Using a sample of 100 Spanish companies with a significant social and economic role in Latin American during 2004‐2007, we estimated probit models for panel data.

Our results showed that the main determinants are scale economies and the use of derivatives. On the one hand, we found that this hedging is positively related to tax loss carry‐forwards and long‐term economic sectors, and on the other, that it is related negatively to information asymmetries and growth opportunities. Results were mixed for foreign currency exposure.

The limitations of this paper are associated to the availability of information from annual reports and the SABI database, especially the variables in relation to operational hedging. Therefore, as a future line of research, we propose gathering of data on these internal hedging practices in order to obtain more accurate evidence about its use in companies and their relationship with financial hedging.

This paper makes three major contributions to the existing literature. First, it contributes by illustrating currency hedging practices used by Spanish firms – which are important in Latin markets – to manage exchange rate exposure in. Second, we used more variables for the empirical analyses to contrast the hedging theories than previous studies had. Finally, we used a data panel because it allows the control of unobservable heterogeneity and endogeneity problems. Previous studies only used cross‐section estimations.

Este trabajo analiza la cobertura cambiaria con deuda en divisa utilizando las teorías de cobertura.

Se estimaron modelos probit para datos de panel usando una muestra de 100 empresas españolas con un papel económico‐social relevante en Latinoamérica durante el período 2004‐2007.

Los resultados muestran que esta cobertura se relaciona principalmente con las economías de escala y el uso de derivados. Asimismo, existe una relación positiva con la convexidad impositiva y la localización empresarial en sectores orientados al largo plazo, y negativa con las asimetrías informativas y oportunidades de crecimiento. No existe evidencia concluyente para la exposición cambiaria.

La investigación tuvo como limitación la disponibilidad de algunos datos en los informes anuales de las empresas y la base de datos SABI, en especial, aquellos referidos a la cobertura operativa. En consecuencia, una línea de trabajo futura es la mejora de la información sobre esta cobertura, lo cual permitiría aportar mayor evidencia sobre su utilización y su relación con la cobertura financiera.

Esta investigación realiza tres contribuciones a la literatura existente: a) permite un mejor conocimiento de la cobertura cambiaria en empresas españolas internacionales que ejercen un papel relevante en los mercados latinoamericanos; b) utiliza un conjunto de variables más amplio para contrastar las teorías de cobertura que el aplicado en estudios precedentes; c) emplea la metodología de datos de panel y no estimaciones en sección cruzada como presentan los trabajos previos, lo cual permite controlar la heterogeneidad inobservable y posibles problemas de endogeneidad.

Will a free trade agreement (FTA) between nations be politically viable? Under political lobbying, which incentives determine whether FTAs will be signed or not? Will FTAs steadily include more countries until we reach a worldwide free trade? The paper addresses these questions using a theoretical analysis model, with “protection for sale” model as the foundation.

Firstly, the economic and political factors are investigated in the theoretical model. Then, the validity of results is tested by econometric analysis with a panel probit model. The data spans 25 key trade nations and covers the period of 2007, 2010 and 2013.

First, the FTA will be endorsed only if the aggregate welfare under FTA, combing lobby contributions with social welfare of both pair nations, is higher than the counterpart without FTA. Otherwise, FTA is rejected. Second, the possibility of concluding a FTA has positive correlation with pair nations’ market sizes and the number of countries with which they have both previously concluded FTAs; the possibility has negative correlation with the distance between pair nations; if pair nations’ aggregate market sizes are large enough, the possibility has positive correlation with government’s sensitivity to social welfare, otherwise the correlation is negative. Third, although FTAs are characterized by the regionalism, they will contribute to multilateral free trade in the long run.

Most researchers do not take the foreign lobbying into account in the manner or the detail that we do here when they study the determinants of FTAs. This paper shows the condition under which FTA is politically viable and incentives behind FTA.

This study aims to analyze the influence of taxes and corporate governance on the dividend policy of Brazilian companies.

The authors identify the changes of the tax legislation in Brazil in the period 1986-2011 and check their effect on corporate dividend policies for preferred and common shares. The authors use panel data Probit and Tobit estimation to verify the probability of companies to pay dividends under different tax regimes. The final sample comprises 672 companies, 1,159 traded stocks and 30,134 observations

The authors’ results suggest that changes in the tax legislation have a significant influence on dividend payments. Also, firms do not follow target payout ratios, but dividends are moderately dependent on past payments. Dividend payouts are affected by stock voting rights, privatization and dividend deductibility. Changes in regulation that reduce the agency problems among shareholders affect positively payout ratios.

For managers, maximizing shareholders’ value requires taking into account the consequences of the taxation when designing financial policies for the firm. For investors, stock portfolio selection should take into account payout behavior and how changes in dividend taxation affect stocks’ value. For policymakers, the effects of changes in the tax code on corporate behavior are of utmost importance to stimulate private investment and economic growth.

There are several tax law changes in Brazil within the period analyzed, creating a good opportunity to study the effect of taxation on dividend policy and its dynamics over time.

This paper aims to examine the interrelation between two innovating strategies (product and process) on total factor productivity (TFP) growth and the dynamic linkages between these strategies, for Colombia. The authors first explore whether ex ante more productive firms are those that introduce innovations (the self-selection hypothesis) and if the introduction of innovations boosts TFP growth (the returns-to-innovation hypothesis). Second, the authors study the firm’s joint dynamic decision to implement process and/or product innovations. The authors use Colombian manufacturing data from the Annual Manufacturing and the Technological Development and Innovation Surveys.

This study uses a four-stage procedure. First, the authors estimate TFP using a modified version of Olley and Pakes (1996) and Levinsohn and Petrin (2003), proposed by De Loecker (2010), that implements an endogenous Markov process where past firm innovations are endogenized. This TFP would be estimated by GMM, Wooldridge (2009). Second, the authors use multivariate discrete choice models to test the self-selection hypothesis. Third, the authors explore, using multi-value treatment evaluation techniques, the life span of the impact of innovations on productivity growth (returns to innovation hypothesis). Fourth, the authors analyse the joint likelihood of implementing process and product innovations using dynamic panel data bivariate probit models.

The investigation reveals that the self-selection effect is notably more pronounced in the adoption of process innovations only, as opposed to the adoption of product innovations only or the simultaneous adoption of both process and product innovations. Moreover, our results uncover distinct temporal patterns concerning innovation returns. Specifically, process innovations yield immediate benefits, whereas implementing both product innovations only and jointly process and product innovations exhibit significant, albeit delayed, advantages. Finally, the analysis confirms the existence of dynamic interconnections between the adoption of process and product innovations.

The contribution of this work to the literature is manifold. First, the authors thoroughly investigate the relationship between the implementation of process and product innovations and productivity for Colombian manufacturing explicitly recognising that firms’ decisions of adopting product and process innovations are very likely interrelated. Therefore, the authors start exploring the self-selection and the returns to innovation hypotheses accounting for the fact that firms might implement process innovations only, product innovations only and both process and product innovations. In the analysis of the returns of innovation, the fact that firms may choose among a menu of three innovation strategies implies the use of evaluation methods for multi-value treatments. Second, the authors study the dynamic inter-linkages between the decisions to implement process and/or product innovations, that remains under studied, at least for emerging economies. Third, the estimation of TFP is performed using an endogenous Markov process, where past firms’ innovations are endogenized.

Federally subsidized crop insurance aims to mitigate farm risks of crop producers. A body of literature has examined informational problems under this program. However, few studies empirically link crop insurance participation with farm financial performance. Most use county-level aggregates to argue that crop insurance participation is associated with increased farm financial debt. Using farm-level data, this study provides empirical evidence of crop insurance's effects on farm financial risk.

The impact of crop insurance on farm financial risks is assessed using farm-level data from Kansas. The sample consists of at least 1,600 farms each year from 2002 to 2015. Financial risks are measured using the probability of falling into the critical zone of five different financial ratios. The study uses two matching estimators to estimate the causal effects of crop insurance participation on farm financial risks. Several alternative empirical approaches account for unobserved heterogeneity and potential endogeneity.

Crop insurance participation has reduced the farm's likelihood of being in the critical liquidity risk by 8%. This result is robust across matching estimators and alternative specifications to account for unobserved heterogeneity and potential endogeneity.

This is one of the few studies to examine whether crop insurance reduces farm financial risks. This study provides empirical evidence of the extent to which crop insurance enrollment impacts farm financial risks. Findings suggest that crop insurance is critical to maintaining the financial well-being of crop producers, and significantly reduces the likelihood of producers being in a critical liquidity risk.

The purpose of this paper is to explore how various performance related pay (PRP) schemes influence employee turnover. It also tests whether profit sharing has a differential impact on turnover in comparison to other forms of PRP.

Utilizing a nationally representative longitudinal dataset of individuals, analysis begins with a parsimonious specification of the determinants of turnover and then progressively adds various sets of controls known to influence turnover decisions to observe how their inclusion influences PRP coefficients. Estimations employ both standard probits and panel data models.

Empirical evidence reveals a negative relationship between an aggregate measure of PRP and turnover. Disaggregating performance pay measures by type reveals a robust negative relationship between profit sharing and turnover. Although one would expect the influence of other PRP schemes to mimic that of profit sharing, evidence suggests otherwise.

Data lack information on how much earnings are based on PRP. Consequently, estimates may be biased when combining those who receive little earnings from PRP with those who receive substantial amounts of PRP into a single PRP measure.

Although PRP schemes are often introduced to improve incentives and productivity, profit sharing based on firm profitability may allow labor costs to vary with firm profits hence enhancing retention and reducing the incidence of unemployment during recession.

This paper adds to the literature and fulfils an identified need to study how other types of PRP besides profit sharing influence turnover.

A major stumbling block in multivariate discrete data analysis is the problem of evaluating the outcome probabilities that enter the likelihood function. Calculation of these probabilities involves high-dimensional integration, making simulation methods indispensable in both Bayesian and frequentist estimation and model choice. We review several existing probability estimators and then show that a broader perspective on the simulation problem can be afforded by interpreting the outcome probabilities through Bayes’ theorem, leading to the recognition that estimation can alternatively be handled by methods for marginal likelihood computation based on the output of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. These techniques offer stand-alone approaches to simulated likelihood estimation but can also be integrated with traditional estimators. Building on both branches in the literature, we develop new methods for estimating response probabilities and propose an adaptive sampler for producing high-quality draws from multivariate truncated normal distributions. A simulation study illustrates the practical benefits and costs associated with each approach. The methods are employed to estimate the likelihood function of a correlated random effects panel data model of women's labor force participation.

This study aims to analyze the impact of different governance characteristics on the ratings of both Islamic and conventional mutual funds.

This study used panel data ordered probit regression model. Furthermore, to capture the mutual funds rating persistence effect and address the issue of endogeneity dynamic panel model is used and the results are estimated using the generalized method of the moment (GMM) technique.

The results indicated that amongst the corporate governance characteristics, board size, the board independence, directors and institutional ownership, and overall governance quality positively affect the ratings of both Islamic and conventional funds. However, chief executive officer (CEO) duality and board gender diversity did not show a significant impact on the ratings of these funds.

The current research provides input to the asset management firms as to how they can increase the fund ratings by implementing strong governance practises. Furthermore, the study also provides input to the rating agencies to account for governance characteristics along with financial indicators, when issuing the rating of any fund.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first attempt to analyze the impact of corporate governance characteristics on the rating of both Islamic and conventional mutual funds and hence provides a significant contribution to the literature.