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This study is motivated in part by the fact that the unfolding 2022 bear market, which has reached the −25% drawdown, has not been preceded by the inverted 10Y-3 m spread or an inverted near-term forward spread.

The authors develop a three-factor probit model to predict/explain the deep stock market drawdowns, which the authors define as the drawdowns in excess of 20%.

The study results show that (1) the rising credit risk predicts a deep drawdown about a year in advance and (2) the monetary policy easing precedes an imminent drawdown below the 20% threshold.

This study three-factor probit model shows adaptability beyond the typical recessionary bear market and predicts/explains the liquidity-based selloffs, like the 2022 and possibly the 1987 deep drawdowns.

This study aims to examine the influence of ownership structure and board composition on the probability and intensity of stock repurchases. The study’s sample comprises 3,744 firm-year observations, consisting of 53 repurchasing firms with 96 firm-year observations from 2008 to 2019.

Probit and fixed-effects regression models are used to obtain empirical results. Moreover, a probit model with a continuous endogenous regressor (IV-probit) and an instrumental variable method with two-stage least squares (IV-2SLS) estimation are used to address endogeneity.

Corporations with high family or state ownership tend to inhibit stock repurchases to hoard excess free cash flow, supporting agency theory. Conversely, firms with high board independence tend to repurchase their stocks at least once to distribute free cash flows to shareholders, confirming agency theory. Nonetheless, corporations with more female directors on the board or CEO duality tend to conduct stock repurchases at least once but do not repurchase stocks with high values. Interestingly, more female directors on the board may send false signals about undervalued stocks.

This is the first study to reveal that firms with CEO duality repurchase their stocks at least once but avoid repurchasing shares with high values. It is also the first study to explore whether women on a board may cause false signaling about undervalued stocks. Furthermore, this study reveals that family and state ownership are potential determinants of stock repurchases in countries with high ownership concentration. This is the first study to address this issue in Thailand.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of sales, as a proxy for size, in moderating the impact of institutional incongruence between formal and informal institutions on the formalization of microenterprises in middle-income countries in Latin America.

The paper uses a probit regression model to examine business formalization as a binary outcome of formal and informal institutions. Data was collected through interviews and surveys across 52 municipalities in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago, Chile. The study used a stratified sampling approach and was conducted between November 2022 and January 2023.

The results offer three key insights into the formalization of microenterprises in middle-income countries. First, we show that formal institutions do not significantly influence formalization decisions among microentrepreneurs in middle-income countries, challenging the traditional belief that formal institutions alone significantly influence formalization in these contexts. Second, we show that informal institutions are significant predictors of informality, especially among smaller microenterprises. Third, we highlight that the smaller the business, the stronger the negative effect of informal institutions on formalization, and thus, the institutional incongruence between formal and informal institutions decreases for larger businesses.

This paper contributes to management literature by shedding light on the drivers of formalization in middle-income countries, a departure from most formalization studies wherein the focus is primarily on low-income economies. The findings suggest that policymakers in middle-income countries should focus on enabling microenterprise growth through sales, rather than targeting specific demographic groups or relying solely on formal institutional enforcement to promote formalization.

El objetivo de este estudio es investigar el papel de las ventas, utilizadas como un indicador de tamaño, en la mediación del impacto de la incongruencia institucional entre instituciones formales e informales en la formalización de microempresas en países de ingresos medios en América Latina.

Utilizamos un modelo de regresión Probit para examinar la formalización empresarial como un resultado binario de instituciones formales e informales. Los datos se recopilaron a través de 110 entrevistas y encuestas en 52 municipios de la Región Metropolitana de Santiago, Chile. El estudio empleó un enfoque de muestreo estratificado y se llevó a cabo entre noviembre de 2022 y enero de 2023.

Nuestros resultados ofrecen tres ideas clave sobre la formalización de microempresas en países de ingresos medios. Primero, demostramos que las instituciones formales no influyen significativamente en las decisiones de formalización entre las microempresas en países de ingresos medios; esto desafía la creencia tradicional de que las instituciones formales por sí solas influyen significativamente en la formalización en estos contextos. Segundo, nuestro estudio muestra que las instituciones informales son predictores significativos de la informalidad, especialmente entre las microempresas más pequeñas. Tercero, nuestro estudio destaca que el efecto negativo de las instituciones informales sobre la formalización es más fuerte para negocios de menor tamaño; por lo tanto, la incongruencia institucional entre instituciones formales e informales disminuye para negocios de mayor tamaño.

Este artículo contribuye a la literatura iluminando sobre los impulsores de la formalización en países de ingresos medios, a diferencia de la mayoría de los estudios de formalización en la región latinoamericana que se centran principalmente en países de bajos ingresos. Nuestros hallazgos sugieren que los responsables de políticas en países de ingresos medios deberían centrarse en impulsar el crecimiento de las microempresas a través de las ventas, en lugar de enfocarse en grupos demográficos específicos o depender únicamente del cumplimiento institucional formal para promover la formalización.

O objetivo deste estudo é investigar o papel das vendas, usadas como um indicador de tamanho, na mediação do impacto da incongruência institucional entre instituições formais e informais na formalização de microempresas em países de renda média na América Latina.

Utilizamos um modelo de regressão Probit para examinar a formalização empresarial como um resultado binário de instituições formais e informais. Os dados foram coletados por meio de 110 entrevistas e pesquisas em 52 municípios da Região Metropolitana de Santiago, Chile. O estudo empregou uma abordagem de amostragem estratificada e foi realizado entre novembro de 2022 e janeiro de 2023.

Nossos resultados oferecem três ideias-chave sobre a formalização de microempresas em países de renda média. Primeiro, demonstramos que as instituições formais não influenciam significativamente as decisões de formalização entre as microempresas em países de renda média; isso desafia a crença tradicional de que as instituições formais, por si só, influenciam significativamente a formalização nesses contextos. Segundo, nosso estudo mostra que as instituições informais são preditores significativos da informalidade, especialmente entre as microempresas menores. Terceiro, nosso estudo destaca que o efeito negativo das instituições informais sobre a formalização é mais forte para negócios de menor porte; portanto, a incongruência institucional entre instituições formais e informais diminui para negócios de maior porte.

Este artigo contribui para a literatura iluminando os impulsionadores da formalização em países de renda média, ao contrário da maioria dos estudos de formalização na região latino-americana, que se concentram principalmente em países de baixa renda. Nossos achados sugerem que os responsáveis pelas políticas em países de renda média deveriam focar em impulsionar o crescimento das microempresas por meio das vendas, em vez de se concentrar em grupos demográficos específicos ou depender exclusivamente do cumprimento institucional formal para promover a formalização.

Efforts to reduce farmers' market risks and improve buyers' access to farm commodities have encouraged contract farming (CF) in Ghana's cashew sector in recent years. Consequently, the existence of CF shows that farmers who use it may be benefiting from it, as it is their economic responsibility to decide how to sell agricultural products. However, the magnitudes of these benefits or otherwise have been inadequately explored. This paper aims to empirically estimate the impact of CF on farm performance and welfare of smallholder cashew farmers.

The study used probit-two-stage least square (probit-2sls) as a primary estimator to account for self-selection bias and endogeneity that could arise from both observed and unobserved heterogeneities among farming households to estimate the causal effects of CF on farm performance and household welfare.

The results indicated that participation in CF contribute significantly to the gains in farm performance (price margins, yields and net farm revenue) and welfare (consumption expenditure per capita), and that the non-participants of CF would have benefited substantially if they had participated. An analysis of the farm size disaggregated into small, medium and large with regards to the outcome variables produces mixed results.

It can be concluded that participating in CF enhances farm performance and household welfare.

While many other studies do not account for changes in farm performance and welfare due to differences in farm size or other observed factors, this study fills a crucial void.

Using primary survey data from an urban area in Global North, this study aims to examine the impact of sociodemographic factors on perception of usefulness of public transport and the importance of safety in preferring private modes of transport over public.

The study uses stratified random sampling technique to collect data on travel behavior and socioeconomic characteristics. Descriptive statistics complemented with bivariate probit model and seemingly unrelated bivariate probit model is implemented on the data obtained.

The study finds that women, unmarried individuals, the youngest age group, least educated individuals and those who are working are expected to finding public transport more useful as compared to their respective counterparts. Despite finding the mode most useful, women are more likely to find it unsafe to travel.

The study calls attention to not only dealing with the infrastructural changes in system but also with those attached insecurities which limit its use.

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time a comprehensive evaluation of the demands and challenges for transportation services faced by different segments of the society is carried out in this section of the developing world.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the adoption of Islamic finance products (murabaha, musharakah, mudarabah, salam, ijara, istisna and Qard Hassan) by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Cameroon, a non-Islamic Sub-Saharan African country.

It used primary data collected from a cross-section of 1,358 SMEs in eight regions of Cameroon using self-administered structured questionnaires. To facilitate the analyses and interpretation, these products are grouped into four groups based on certain characteristics. A multivariate probit model is estimated to take into account the interaction between these different Islamic finance products.

This study revealed that the desire to comply with Sharia law, awareness, attitude and intention were critical determinants of the decision to adopt Islamic finance products by Cameroonian SMEs. The least influential factors were perceived behavioral control, subjective norms, enterprise characteristics (size, age and location) and socio-demographic characteristics of the entrepreneur (gender, age and marital status). The extension of the multivariate approach permitted us to compute for predicted probabilities which revealed that there exists a synergy effect between the different Islamic finance products. That is, Cameroonian SMEs combine different Islamic finance products at the same time based on their needs. This is especially the case between the partnership-based products (musharakah and mudarabah) and manufacture/rent products (istisna and ijara).

Policymakers are encouraged to develop stakeholder-oriented strategies to promote effective consumer education in Islamic finance products which will boost awareness. Also, Islamic finance institutions should endeavor to develop innovative financial products that are Sharia-compliant and economically beneficial to the individual and business needs of SMEs. Moreover, policymakers and management of Islamic finance institutions should ensure the putting in place of effective governance structures to guide Islamic finance operations. Finally, policymakers should endeavor to take into account the possible synergy between the different Islamic finance products in their quest to develop this activity.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that analyses the adoption of different Islamic finance products while taking into account the possible synergy that exists between these products.

There are many factors that determine consumers’ satisfaction. Specifically, the current study examines how political-economic views affect the perception of public services. This study also aims to extend the relationship between public service satisfaction and political-economic opinion from an empirical perspective.

The analysis process is carried out with the Microdataset of the Life Satisfaction Survey. Independent sample t-test which compares individual public service satisfaction ratings and ordinal probit regression models assesses the impacts of political-economic attitude on public service satisfaction.

According to the findings, household size and gender impact public service satisfaction. Again, service satisfaction diminishes as the education level rises. Moreover, a person’s political-economic view affects their public service satisfaction. The study has the potential to literature in terms of determining society’s political-economic view on public services with these empirical results.

The study’s use of the state as a point of reference and quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the service exchange between the citizen and the state is a significant difference in the literature. Also, unlike the other studies, this one used microdata to test the relationship between the political-economic type and the level of satisfaction with public services at different levels. It is thought that future studies on the determinants of public service satisfaction, to be carried out in different country samples, will contribute to the field.

This study has implications on whether the perception of public service varies according to partisanship status.

This study has implications on whether the perception of public service varies according to partisanship status.

This study determines the interaction between the political-economic typology derived from microdata and the satisfaction level variables related to public services offered at different levels. It also evaluates how public service satisfaction differs regarding personality traits and political-economic attitudes.

The connection between digital manufacturing technologies (Industry 4.0) and the environment has sparked discussions on firms' disclosure of negative information on pollutant emissions and the pursuit of positive environmental outcomes. However, very few studies explore how it relates to a firm's robot usage and its mechanism. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of robot penetration on firms' environmental governance in China.

The ordered probit model (and probit model) are employed and empirically tested with a sample of 1,579 Chinese listed firms from 2010 to 2019.

The study reveals a negative relationship between robot usage and the disclosure of negative indicators and a U-shaped relationship between robot usage and positive environmental outcomes. Among the sample, nonstate-owned enterprises (SOEs) display unsatisfactory performance, while heavily polluting industries disclose more information on pollutant emissions. The robot–environmental governance nexus is conditional on firm size, capital intensity and local economic development.

The study proposes a fresh view of corporate environmental governance to assess the environmental implications of robot adoption. It also contributes to identifying the curvilinear, moderating and heterogenous effects in the robot–environment nexus. The results provide rich policy implications for the development of industrial intelligence and corporate environmental governance in the circular economy (CE) context.

The built environment is responsible for approximately 40% of the world’s energy consumption, 30% of raw material use, 25% of solid waste, 25% of water use, 12% of land use and 33% of greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, environmental improvement and decarbonization are becoming increasingly critical objectives for the construction industry. Sustainable construction can be achieved through several practices, including: considering life-cycle assessment, circular construction, resource efficiency and waste management and providing eco-efficient materials, reducing energy demands and consumption and incorporating low-carbon technologies and renewable energy sources. To achieve sustainable construction goals, it is critical to educate the future workforce about decarbonization, circular construction and how to overcome the challenges involved in transitioning to sustainable construction. This study aims to understand the gap in student knowledge related to decarbonization and circular construction and the importance of incorporating these topics in civil engineering and construction management curricula.

This study surveyed 120 undergraduate and graduate students at one of the largest minority-serving institutions in the USA to understand the gap in student knowledge related to decarbonization and circular construction as well as the importance of incorporating these topics in civil engineering and construction management curricula. The authors conducted several statistical measures to assess the consistency, reliability and adequacy of the sample size, including the Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin measure of sampling adequacy, the normality test to evaluate the appropriateness of using an ordered probit regression analysis and a multicollinearity test to observe the correlation between independent variables. The data was analyzed using ordered probit regression analysis to investigate the need for a curriculum that serves in educating students about decarbonization and circular construction.

The results of this research highlight the gaps in students’ knowledge pertaining to sustainable practices and the importance of providing future construction workforce with such knowledge to tackle global inevitable challenges.

The findings of this study contribute to sustainable construction bodies of knowledge by advocating for a reformed curriculum to prepare the future workforce and adopt less carbonized, more circular approaches within the engineering and construction industry.

Federally subsidized crop insurance aims to mitigate farm risks of crop producers. A body of literature has examined informational problems under this program. However, few studies empirically link crop insurance participation with farm financial performance. Most use county-level aggregates to argue that crop insurance participation is associated with increased farm financial debt. Using farm-level data, this study provides empirical evidence of crop insurance's effects on farm financial risk.

The impact of crop insurance on farm financial risks is assessed using farm-level data from Kansas. The sample consists of at least 1,600 farms each year from 2002 to 2015. Financial risks are measured using the probability of falling into the critical zone of five different financial ratios. The study uses two matching estimators to estimate the causal effects of crop insurance participation on farm financial risks. Several alternative empirical approaches account for unobserved heterogeneity and potential endogeneity.

Crop insurance participation has reduced the farm's likelihood of being in the critical liquidity risk by 8%. This result is robust across matching estimators and alternative specifications to account for unobserved heterogeneity and potential endogeneity.

This is one of the few studies to examine whether crop insurance reduces farm financial risks. This study provides empirical evidence of the extent to which crop insurance enrollment impacts farm financial risks. Findings suggest that crop insurance is critical to maintaining the financial well-being of crop producers, and significantly reduces the likelihood of producers being in a critical liquidity risk.