Search results

Buried structures like pipeline systems or water distribution networks (WDN) are vulnerable to seismic activities and the risk of damages increases when there is liquefaction. This paper aims to propose a methodology on how to determine the probable maximum loss (PML) on pipeline systems when earthquakes and liquefaction occur in future scenarios.

The paper used historical data and presents a case study on how the methodology to estimate the PML was used. The estimation is analytic and relied on simulations to determine the seismic and liquefaction hazard in the study area. Statistical and numerical analysis was used to estimate the damages and losses.

The output shows the PML of a WDN at different earthquake scenarios. It also shows a comparison between the damages and losses of diameter sizes of the pipes.

In this paper, the damages behaved independently in one area, and correlation was not considered.

This PML methodology can aid in pre-disaster planning to prepare for seismic countermeasures risk transfer such as insurance to reduce the loss.

This paper shows a methodology and example on how to estimate the damages and PMLs of an existing WDN of a projected earthquake and liquefaction hazard based on historical data.

The Public Organisation Risk Management concept challenges managers to develop a means of systematically identifying and managing key features of the organisation’s uncertainty field (its risks, uncertainties, the unknown and emergent, and the human perception/behaviour component). This presents an immense challenge, as it seems an organisation would need – in some sense – to identify all aspects of the environment before then isolating that subset of the most important risks and uncertainties. Clearly this is impossible, but a conscious awareness of this limitation might be valuable in its own right.

Assessment and analysis refers to the systematic and ongoing process by which a public organisation identifies, analyses, and measures the key components of its uncertainty field. A foundation concept that governs assessment and analysis is the view that public organisations are, in effect, collections of contracts, obligations, commitments, and agreements between the government and resource holders. Those arrangements serve as means by which the public organisation becomes exposed to the elements of the uncertainty field. Those elements, in turn, arise from the physical, social, political, economic, legal, operational, and cognitive environments.

A more detailed exposition of assessment and analysis appears in both Chapters Six and Seven. Here, in Chapter Five the goal is to set the foundation for such an exploration. Key terms and concepts are presented, and some core issues are introduced. As with all chapters, the discussion will address what have been identified as ‘traditional’ as well as enterprise risk management influenced perspectives. This in turn will lead to some coverage of alternative thinking about the assessment and analysis process.

Explains the importance of the risk management function as part of the disaster recovery‐planning process. Explains what you can and cannot insure and the importance of not underestimating the “indemnity period”. Explains methods of establishing the “sum insured”, along with the establishment of premiums, the payment of claims, and the importance of post‐disaster insurance reviews.

The purpose of this paper is to be an academic inquiry into rating issues confronted by the US Federal Crop Insurance program stemming from changes in participation rates as well as the weighting of data to reflect longer‐run weather patterns.

The authors investigate two specific approaches that differ from those adopted by the Risk Management Agency, building upon standard maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation techniques that consider parametric densities for the loss‐cost ratio.

Both approaches indicate that incorporating weights into the priors for Bayesian estimation can inform the distribution.

In most cases, the authors' results indicate that including weighting into priors for Bayesian estimation implied lower premium rates than found using standard methods.

The present article serves two main goals. First, the proposed scheme for Greece is being involved in a benchmarking analysis. Second, an expansion of previous quantitative models is undertaken in order to estimate risk‐based premiums for the proposed national insurance scheme.

The benchmarking analysis of the proposed scheme is undertaken in comparison to the best practices of the catastrophe insurance systems operating in most member‐states of the EU. Risk modelling is employed to calculate risk‐based premiums.

The benchmarking analysis leads to conclusions which may be useful for the stage of actual implementation of such a program in Greece. Risk‐based premiums for the proposed national insurance scheme are estimated for all CRESTA zones of the country.

Uncertainty of estimated catastrophe losses is a limitation of the research.

The paper provides a detailed description of the proposed earthquake insurance scheme.

The Greek Government should evaluate the proposal for the establishment of a national insurance program for earthquake damages.

The paper's originality/value consists of the construction of a unique data bank of the residential stock of Greece, and a comprehensive proposal for earthquake insurance, based on the best practices of national Cat insurance schemes.

Understanding risk is more than just modeling risk; it requires an understanding of the development and social processes that underlie and drive the generation of disaster risk. Here, in addition to a review of more technical factors, this paper aims to discuss a variety of institutional, social and political considerations that must be managed for the results of a risk assessment to influence actions that lead to reductions in natural hazard risk.

The technical approaches and the institutional, social and political considerations covered in this paper are based on a wide range of experiences gleaned from case studies that touch on a variety of activities related to assessing the risks and impacts of natural hazards, and from the activities of the World Bank’s Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery.

Risk information provides a critical foundation for managing disaster risk across a wide range of sectors. Appropriate communication of robust risk information at the right time can raise awareness and trigger action to reduce risk. Communicating this information in a way that triggers action requires an understanding of the developments and social processes that underlie and drive the generation of risk, as well as of the wider Disaster Risk Management (DRM) decision-making context.

Prior to the initiation of a quantitative risk assessment one should clearly define why an assessment is needed and wanted, the information gaps that currently prevent effective DRM actions and the end-users of the risk information. This requires developing trust through communication among the scientists and engineers performing the risk assessment and the decision-makers, authorities, communities and other intended users of the information developed through the assessment.

This paper summarizes the technical components of a risk assessment as well as the institutional, social and political considerations that should be considered to maximize the probability of successfully reducing the risk defined by a risk assessment.

The insurance industry, in general, accepts large risks due to the combined severity and frequency of catastrophic events; further, these risks are poorly defined given the small amount of data available for extreme events. It is important for the equitable transfer of risk to understand and quantify this risk as accurately as possible. As this risk is propagated to the capital markets, more and more parties will be exposed. An important part of pricing insurance‐linked securities (ILS) is quantifying the uncertainties existing in the physical parameters of the catastrophe models, including both the hazard and damage models. Given the amount of reliable data (1945 till present) on important storm parameters such as central pressure drop, radius to maximum winds, and non‐stationarity of the occurrence rate, moments estimated for these parameters are not highly reliable and knowledge uncertainty must be considered. Also, the engineering damage model for a given class of building in a large portfolio is subject to uncertainty associated with the quality of the buildings. A sample portfolio is used to demonstrate the impact of these knowledge uncertainties. Uncertainties associated with variability of statistics on central pressure drop, occurrence rate, and building quality were estimated and later propagated through a tropical cyclone catastrophe model to quantify the uncertainty of PML results. Finally their effect on the pricing of a typical insurance‐linked security (ILS) was estimated. Statistics of spread over LIBOR given different bond ratings/probability of attachment are presented using a pricing model (Lane [2000]). For a typical ILS, a relatively large coefficient of variation for both probability of attachment and spread over LIBOR was observed. This in turn leads to a rather large price uncertainty for a typical layer and may explain why rational investors expect a higher return for assuming catastrophe risk. The results hold independent of pricing model used. The objective of this study is to quantify this uncertainty for a simple call option and demonstrate its effect on pricing.

The paper’s purpose is to consider, using a transaction cost economics (TCE) framework, the mechanisms used by space agencies to encourage private investment in the commercial spaceflight sector.

The authors conducted a content analysis of 554 pages of news articles, relating to issues pertaining to partnerships between national government-based space agencies and private space travel providers, published over a 20-year period. Leximancer was used to initially screen the data and then the authors manually analysed the content to identify themes.

The data analysis revealed three themes, relating to: the uncertainty of space travel; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) stimulating innovation in the private sector; and risk, insurance and regulation. These themes informed by TCE reveal the “hierarchical” organisational forms used to achieve human spaceflight and then the “hybrids”, insurance and regulations used to stimulate private sector investment and innovation.

This paper contributes to the accounting literature by answering the calls of Alewine (2020) and Tucker and Alewine (2022a, b) for more research into accounting in the space context. Specifically, the paper contributes by identifying mechanisms used by NASA to stimulate private investment in the space travel sector, as well as issues that have affected the implementation of these mechanisms. The paper also contributes to the literature by, based on the analysis, identifying a series of reflections designed to stimulate further management accounting research in the space context.

Within a few years it is expected that the Fire Precautions Act (1971), at present only applicable to hotels, boarding houses, shops, offices and factories, will be extended to cover all buildings‐and the onus of compliance will be placed on the building owner or ‘the responsible person’: the facilities manager? Eric Marchant, of the University of Edinburgh's Department of Fire Safety Engineering, puts this vast subject into perspective.

The development of multi-hazard risk assessment frameworks has gained momentum in the recent past. Nevertheless, the common practice with openly available risk data sets, such as the ones derived from the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction Global Risk Model, has been to assess risk individually for each peril and afterwards aggregate, when possible, the results. Although this approach is sufficient for perils that do not have any interaction between them, for the cases where such interaction exists, and losses can be assumed to occur simultaneously, there may be underestimation of losses. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

This paper summarizes a methodology to integrate simultaneous losses caused by earthquakes and tsunamis, with a peril-agnostic approach that can be expanded to other hazards. The methodology is applied in two relevant locations in Latin America, Acapulco (Mexico) and Callao (Peru), considering in each case building by building exposure databases with portfolios of different characteristics, where the results obtained with the proposed approach are compared against those obtained after the direct aggregation of individual losses.

The fully probabilistic risk assessment framework used herein is the same of the global risk model but applied at a much higher resolution level of the hazard and exposure data sets, showing its scalability characteristics and the opportunities to refine certain inputs to move forward into decision-making activities related to disaster risk management and reduction.

This paper applies for the first time the proposed methodology in a high-resolution multi-hazard risk assessment for earthquake and tsunami in two major coastal cities in Latin America.