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In order to study the laws of surface subsidence due to mining coal under thick alluvium of Quandian mine, two survey lines were designed on the surface above the first face. By analyzing the position of the maximum subsidence point of the tendency survey line, the zenith angle was obtained, and the correctness of taking bedrock thickness instead of average mining depth to design the position of the trend survey line in the mining area was confirmed; and based on the analyses of the measured data, the critical size of the gob full opening in the geological and mining conditions didn't follow the general law that the gob would reach the critical size when the panel has moved for a distance of 1.2H₀ - 1.4H₀. These results showed that the bedrock played a major role in the spread of whole overburden subsidence in the geological and mining conditions, while the loose layer had less affection. In addition, based on the analyses of the measured data, some rock movement parameters and probability integral prediction parameters of the surface subsidence of Quandian mine in the geological and mining conditions have been obtained. The study would have some important theoretical significance and practical guidance for implementing mining beneath buildings, water bodies and railways and prevent of this coal field as well as surface structure damage control.

With the promotion of lithium-ion battery, it is more and more important to ensure the safety usage of the battery. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the battery operation data and estimate the remaining life of the battery, and provide effective information to the user to avoid the risk of battery accidents.

The particle filter (PF) algorithm is taken as the core, and the double-exponential model is used as the state equation and the artificial neural network is used as the observation equation. After the importance resampling process, the battery degradation curve is obtained after getting the posterior parameter, and then the system could estimate remaining useful life (RUL).

Experiments were carried out by using the public data set. The results show that the Bayesian-based posterior estimation model has a good predictive effect and fits the degradation curve of the battery well, and the prediction accuracy will increase gradually as the cycle increases.

This paper combines the advantages of the data-driven method and PF algorithm. The proposed method has good prediction accuracy and has an uncertain expression on the RUL of the battery. Besides, the method proposed is relatively easy to implement in the battery management system, which has high practical value and can effectively avoid battery using risk for driver safety.

The purpose of this paper is to apply the concept of equivalent initial flaw size (EIFS) to the anisotropic nickel-based single crystal (SX) material, and to predict the fatigue life on this basis. The crack propagation law of SX material at different temperatures and the weak correlation of EIFS values verification under different loading conditions are also investigated.

A three-parameter time to crack initial (TTCI) method with multiple reference crack lengths under different loading conditions is established, which include the TTCI backstepping method and EIFS fitting method. Subsequently, the optimized EIFS distribution is obtained based on the random crack propagation rate and maximum likelihood estimation of median fatigue life. Then, an effective driving force based on anisotropic and mixed crack propagation mode is proposed to describe the crack propagation rate in the small crack stage. Finally, the fatigue life of three different temperature ESE(T) standard specimens is predicted based on the EIFS values under different survival rates.

The optimized EIFS distribution based on EIFS fitting - maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method has the highest accuracy in predicting the total fatigue life, with the range of EIFS values being about [0.0028, 0.0875] (mm), and the mean value of EIFS being 0.0506 mm. The error between the predicted fatigue life based on the crack propagation rate and EIFS distribution for survival rates ranges from 5% to 95% and the experimental life is within two times dispersion band.

This paper systematically proposes a new anisotropic material EIFS prediction method, establishing a framework for predicting the fatigue life of SX material at different temperatures using fracture mechanics to avoid inaccurate anisotropic constitutive models and fatigue damage accumulation theory.

The purpose of this paper is to construct an interval grey number NGM(1,1) direct prediction model (abbreviated as IGNGM(1,1)), which need not transform interval grey numbers sequences into real number sequences, and the Markov model is used to optimize residual sequences of IGNGM(1,1) model.

A definition equation of IGNGM(1,1) model is proposed in this paper, and its time response function is solved by recursive iteration method. Next, the optimal weight of development coefficients of two boundaries is obtained by genetic algorithm, which is designed by minimizing the average relative error based on time weighted. In addition to that, the Markov model is used to modify residual sequences.

The interval grey numbers’ sequences can be predicted directly by IGNGM(1,1) model and its residual sequences can be amended by Markov model. A case study shows that the proposed model has higher accuracy in prediction.

Uncertainty and volatility information is widespread in practical applications, and the information can be characterized by interval grey numbers. In this paper, an interval grey numbers direct prediction model is proposed, which provides a method for predicting the uncertainty information in the real world.

The main contribution of this paper is to propose an IGNGM(1,1) model which can realize interval grey numbers prediction without transforming them into real number and solve the optimal weight of integral development coefficient by genetic algorithm so as to avoid the distortion of prediction results. Moreover, the Markov model is used to modify residual sequences to further improve the modeling accuracy.

Mathematical models for reliability prediction under multiple condition parameters are discussed. The models are developed under the assumption that the different condition parameters can be independent or dependent. Presents a model based on the continuous time Markov chain where the rate of degradation of the system depends on the state of the system and the fact that different parameters that cause system degradation can be dependent. The models are illustrated using an example.

In contrast to point forecasts, interval forecasts provide information on future variability. This research thus aimed to develop interval prediction models by addressing two significant issues: (1) a simple average with an additive property is commonly used to derive combined forecasts, but this unreasonably ignores the interaction among sequences used as sources of information, and (2) the time series often does not conform to any statistical assumptions.

To develop an interval prediction model, the fuzzy integral was applied to nonlinearly combine forecasts generated by a set of grey prediction models, and a sequence including the combined forecasts was then used to construct a neural network. All required parameters relevant to the construction of an interval model were optimally determined by the genetic algorithm.

The empirical results for tourism demand showed that the proposed non-additive interval model outperformed the other interval prediction models considered.

The private and public sectors in economies with high tourism dependency can benefit from the proposed model by using the forecasts to help them formulate tourism strategies.

In light of the usefulness of combined point forecasts and interval model forecasting, this research contributed to the development of non-additive interval prediction models on the basis of combined forecasts generated by grey prediction models.

This paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of uncertainty quantification methods supported by evidence-based comparison studies. Uncertainties are widely encountered in engineering practice, arising from such diverse sources as heterogeneity of materials, variability in measurement, lack of data and ambiguity in knowledge. Academia and industries have long been researching for uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to quantitatively account for the effects of various input uncertainties on the system response. Despite the rich literature of relevant research, UQ is not an easy subject for novice researchers/practitioners, where many different methods and techniques coexist with inconsistent input/output requirements and analysis schemes.

This confusing status significantly hampers the research progress and practical application of UQ methods in engineering. In the context of engineering analysis, the research efforts of UQ are most focused in two largely separate research fields: structural reliability analysis (SRA) and stochastic finite element method (SFEM). This paper provides a state-of-the-art review of SRA and SFEM, covering both technology and application aspects. Moreover, unlike standard survey papers that focus primarily on description and explanation, a thorough and rigorous comparative study is performed to test all UQ methods reviewed in the paper on a common set of reprehensive examples.

Over 20 uncertainty quantification methods in the fields of structural reliability analysis and stochastic finite element methods are reviewed and rigorously tested on carefully designed numerical examples. They include FORM/SORM, importance sampling, subset simulation, response surface method, surrogate methods, polynomial chaos expansion, perturbation method, stochastic collocation method, etc. The review and comparison tests comment and conclude not only on accuracy and efficiency of each method but also their applicability in different types of uncertainty propagation problems.

The research fields of structural reliability analysis and stochastic finite element methods have largely been developed separately, although both tackle uncertainty quantification in engineering problems. For the first time, all major uncertainty quantification methods in both fields are reviewed and rigorously tested on a common set of examples. Critical opinions and concluding remarks are drawn from the rigorous comparative study, providing objective evidence-based information for further research and practical applications.

With the rapid development and stable operated application of lithium-ion batteries used in uninterruptible power supply (UPS), the prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) for lithium-ion battery played an important role. More and more researchers paid more attentions on the reliability and safety for lithium-ion batteries based on prediction of RUL. The purpose of this paper is to predict the life of lithium-ion battery based on auto regression and particle filter method.

In this paper, a simple and effective RUL prediction method based on the combination method of auto-regression (AR) time-series model and particle filter (PF) was proposed for lithium-ion battery. The proposed method deformed the double-exponential empirical degradation model and reduced the number of parameters for such model to improve the efficiency of training. By using the PF algorithm to track the process of lithium-ion battery capacity decline and modified observations of the state space equations, the proposed PF + AR model fully considered the declined process of batteries to meet more accurate prediction of RUL.

Experiments on CALCE dataset have fully compared the conventional PF algorithm and the AR + PF algorithm both on original exponential empirical degradation model and the deformed double-exponential one. Experimental results have shown that the proposed PF + AR method improved the prediction accuracy, decreases the error rate and reduces the uncertainty ranges of RUL, which was more suitable for the deformed double-exponential empirical degradation model.

In the running of UPS device based on lithium-ion battery, the proposed AR + PF combination algorithm will quickly, accurately and robustly predict the RUL of lithium-ion batteries, which had a strong application value in the stable operation of laboratory and other application scenarios.

Nowadays, e‐queues are built up everywhere where customer online service is necessary such as in banks' e‐service, enterprises' e‐business, etc. In order to enhance quality of service (QoS), active queue management (AQM) algorithms are frequently employed due to their efficiency in congestion avoidance as well as the differentiated forwarding of packets. This paper aims at developing a novel AQM algorithm to better QoS in terms of congestion prediction, queuing delay, packet loss and link utility, etc.

Upon the traditional designs of AQM, this paper establishes a new integrated AQM scheme (RQ‐AQM) by employing input rate and current queue length to calculate the packet dropping/marking probability. In this way, the rate feedback control enables to rapid response to congestion, decreasing the packet loss from buffer overflow. Meanwhile, the queue length feedback control stabilizes the queue length around a given target, achieving predictable queuing delay and lower delay jitter. Thus, the main feature of the design is to use coefficients of both proportional rate control and proportional‐integral queue length control, and to simplify parameter setting, the control parameters were scaled by the link capacity C to normalize the rate and by the bandwidth‐delay product BDP to normalize the queue length, respectively.

The stability performance of RQ‐AQM was tested via simulation under several conditions. The results proved that it is able to maintain the queue length around the given target. Also, the comparison results with other AQM schemes, including RED, ARED, PI controller, AVQ and REM, demonstrated the superiority of RQ‐AQM in low packet loss, faster convergence to target queue length and closest to the target queue length.

The main limitation of this study is that all the simulations were merely under a single bottleneck network topology. Furthermore, the system stability was examined under just a few cases. Other cases like TCP connections mixed with HTTP connections, or UDP flows, etc. can also be tested. Furthermore, the multiple bottleneck scenarios should be covered in the future work with more parameters set to enhance the proved results.

The paper sets clear but ideal conditions for the performance of proposed algorithm; so the simulation results can only be used as a rough reference instead of an exact practical one. But the concepts the paper attempted to advocate could be considered seriously.

The scope of the paper is within the general theory of AQM. So it can be referred to any specific field that employs AQM technology, no matter locally or globally.

There are not much new brand contents in the paper. The main contribution is on some extension of the known related work.

To establish a statistical formulation of robust design optimization and to develop a fast optimization algorithm for the solution of the statistical design problem.

Existing formulations and methods for statistical robust design are reviewed and compared. A consistent problem formulation in terms of statistical parameters of the involved variables is introduced. A novel algorithm for statistical optimization is developed. It is based on the unscented transformation, a fast method for the propagation of random variables through nonlinear functions. The prediction performance of the unscented transformation is demonstrated and compared with other methods by means of an analytical test function. The validity of the proposed approach is shown through the design of the superconducting magnetic energy storage device of the TEAM workshop problem 22.

Provides a consistent formulation of statistical robust design optimization and an efficient and accurate method for the solution of practical problems.

The proposed approach can be applied to all kinds of design problems and allows to account for the inevitable effects of tolerances and parameter variations occuring in practical realizations of designed devices.