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Via this case, students are introduced to several alternative methods of valuation, including the valuation based on the “real options” theory. The novelty of the case is the link between valuation and the type of innovation that the company represents. The suggested valuation frameworks, which include both quantitative and qualitative assessments, are applicable not only in the context of an IPO valuation but also in the context of any kind of M&A activity.

This case was prepared mostly via secondary research. All the information about Uber and the industry was collected via publicly available sources. No internal documents of the company were used in the preparation of this case. The primary research consisted of an interview with the protagonist Catherine (whose name is disguised). Other disguised elements in the case include the name of the Value Investor conference organizer (Spyros Spyrou, not his real name), the country of the Value Investor conference (omitted) and the conference venue (Princess hotel, not any actual venue).

In 2019, Uber, the famous ride-sharing company, made waves in financial markets as the most controversial IPO valuation. With a wide range of proposed values, Uber puzzled investors, once again living up to its fame of a rebel and a disruptor. When Uber finally went public in May 2019, its IPO valuation stood at $82.4bn. The heated discussion in the media continued even after the IPO: “Is Uber worth this amount? Is there an upside potential for the investors who bought shares at the IPO price? What if this is a hype and markets are simply embracing higher valuations?”

This case can be used at the undergraduate, graduate (MBA) or executive level in finance-related courses such as Company Valuation or Valuing Innovation, which cover the topic of valuation and specifically the topic of valuing innovative companies.

1. Probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions

2. Decision tree to find the expected monetary value (EMV) of different options.

3. Monte Carlo simulation for risk analysis.

4. Risk analysis in project management.

Learners will be able to understand and apply the following: how to approach uncertainty in business decisions using probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions; how to address uncertainty in business decisions by looking forward and reasoning backward, using the decision tree technique and the EMV of different decisions; how to analyse the risk inherent in business decisions by incorporating probability distributions for all critical variables in the form of Monte Carlo simulation; and appreciation of strategic considerations in risk analysis as it applies to project management

The case describes the challenge facing Vilas Birari, the owner and chief executive of Harsh Constructions, a construction company headquartered in Nasik, India. Birari had to decide on the bid for a construction project in September of 2021, during the COVID-19 (COVID) pandemic. Due to successive waves of the pandemic, the state and federal governments announced lockdowns intermittently, causing uncertainty in costs related to labor, material and project completion. The dilemma before Birari was how to set a bid price that was not so low as to incur a loss and not so high as to lose the bid to competitors. The uncertainty made Birari’s decision-making complex. The case invites students to help Birari find an optimum bid price by using various quantitative techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees.

This case is intended for students of management at a master’s level, in an elective course on management science, which is often also known as decision science. This compact case can be positioned in the second half of the course, when exploring risk management using computer simulation as a tool. The case serves both as an introduction to using simulation to manage uncertainty as well a contrast with simpler methods that are covered earlier in the course.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 7: Management Science.

Appendix 1: Comic Frames A At the end of the case study discussion, students will able to as follows: Explain various growth strategies as a potential unicorn with the exponential growth mindset rather than linear growth mindset through adaptation of Massive Transformative Purpose (MTP) and Moonshot Thinking (MT). Demonstrate innovative and creative plans and ideas, with the ability to scale up in the circular economy. Review and summarize the power of Collaborative Innovation (CI). Compare and contrast different ways in dealing with Hedgehog and Fox style of leadership into the business. Appendix 2: Comic Frames B At the end of the case study discussion, students will able to as follows: Act with a growth strategy as a potential unicorn with the exponential growth mindset rather than linear growth mindset through adaptation of MTP and MT. Simulate innovative and creative plans and ideas, with the ability to scale up in the circular economy. Assess and leverage the power of CI. Decide and differentiate in dealing with Hedgehog and Fox style of leadership into the business.

Ankit Tripathi, was a compassionate 22-year-old, the typical lad from New Delhi, India, who seemed driven to change the world. His elder brother Atul Tripathi, a young, creative 25-year-old, was sat there next to him, beaming with pride and gratitude. Both brothers, being mechanical engineering graduates, had experienced the advancement of technology at the cost of Mother Earth. It pained them no end. It was the reason that Atul had refused to serve as an engineer in a government institution after graduating. The parents were shocked when Ankit followed suit. The brothers were poles apart in their personality and temperament, and it was rare to see them agree on anything in this way. Yet, they agreed to disagree with their parents and ventured into becoming entrepreneurs with a purpose and passion to salvage the environment. They had a vision, but without a proper roadmap, it would certainly be a tough game. Nevertheless, they boldly embarked upon their journey and established their start-up “Uneako” in 2019. “Uneako” was a calculated risk, taking into account family resistance (parents’ attitude/perception), personal conflicts (psychological), financial limitations (resources), shallow expertise (professionalism), social concern acceptability and low awareness (environment), government regulations (legalities/approvals), conflicts between brothers (personality issues), etc. Being from a nonbusiness family, the brothers had defied the wave of obstacles and challenges in daring to start their own business, putting at stake the hard-earned money of their father, Satendra Tripathi. Amidst so much social mockery, would Atul and Ankit succumb and become a laughing stock or would they find something that they could live and die for?

Appendix 1: Comic Frames A: This case has been particularly focused on undergraduate level students pursuing business or commerce programs. Especially those studying core courses, for example, entrepreneurial and strategic management. Appendix 2: Comic Frames B: This case has been particularly focused postgraduate-early stage or higher level students pursuing business or commerce programs. Particularly those specializing in entrepreneurial and strategic management courses. Also, can be taught in the entrepreneurial or start-up workshops.

www.pewresearch.org/topics/generation-z/ Paulynice. J.P., (2019) “From Idea to Reality: An Entrepreneur’s Guide to Meaningful Business Growth” Paulynice Consulting Group. Hardy.D., (2015) “The Entrepreneur Roller Coaster: It’s Your Turn to Join The Ride” Success Publishers. Wadhwa.V., Amla.I., Salkever.A., (2020) “From Incremental to Exponential” Berrett-Koehler Publishers. Sustainable Entrepreneurship: Business Success through Sustainability edited by Christina Weidinger, Franz Fischler, René Schmidpeter, Springer 2014. Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 3: Entrepreneurship.

1. To analyze the various business models and choose the best model to contribute maximum profit to the company.2. To understand the importance of customer management with the help of the Net Promoter Score in the food retail context.3. To develop customer loyalty strategies and implement them to improve customer management?

39 Bakers, a multi-outlet bakery chain in Jammu, India, is run by its founder Gagan. 39 Bakers, through its retail outlets across the Jammu region, offers a variety of products, ranging from bakery items that include blends of Indian and Italian cuisines, offering more than 1000 stock keeping units (SKUs). Through its high-quality offerings at an affordable price range, the brand has carved a niche in the hyper-competitive bakery market of the Jammu region. Gagan, has closely seen the Jammu market and customer preferences and strongly perceived that the customers in the Jammu region are very price sensitive. Thus, he has always been very reluctant to increase the prices of his product offerings at 39 Bakers. He has always believed that any drastic price rise may lead to immediate dissatisfaction and customer churn and therefore has not increased the prices at 39 Bakers for two years in a row. While this decision of Gagan paid off in terms of its popularity and recognition as one of the highly recommended bakery chains among customers, it drastically impacted the bottom line (i.e. profitability) at 39 Bakers, especially in the year 2020–21. Getting popularity at the cost of dipping profitability made Gagan rethink his decision to be protective of price increases at 39 bakers. How can he measure customer satisfaction and loyalty? Which loyalty strategies will work for the huge customer base of Jammu? Should he change his business model from B2C to B2B? How can loyalty be established? How can he manage his existing and loyal customers through price increases?

The case study is suitable for undergraduate and postgraduate courses in Marketing Management and Retail Marketing. The case study’s focus can be on the importance of pricing, business model evaluation, customer management analysis, customer loyalty, Customer Loyalty analysis, and net promoters score. The case can also be useful to entrepreneurs and regulators.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 3: Entrepreneurship.

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how a well-performing company can turn into a loss-making company on account of adverse industry cycle and poor management of risks in the business. The importance of factors like optimal level of leveraging, the ability of the management to deal with external and internal risks, and importance of corporate governance in the process of credit appraisal is understood from this case.

The case relates to the credit appraisal by the banks of a prominent steel company in India. The company, Bhushan Steel Limited, was doing very well. The banks lent aggressively to the company, based on their credit appraisal. However, the company soon turned insolvent on account of poor assessment of risks and deteriorating external factors. While this case may be analysed and studied through the eyes of both the Management and the lenders, the focus is currently on the latter. In a real-world scenario, the challenge for the lender is to sieve through the financial as well as non-financial data and make a valid conclusion on the level of credit worthiness of the borrowing company. This includes the topics of operational efficiency and synergies, commodity price cycles, external credit ratings, operating and financial leverage, regulatory risks and corporate governance.

Post graduate business management programmes – Finance specialisation.

Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes.

CSS 1: Accounting and Finance

The essence of discounted cash flow valuation is simple; the asset is worth the expected cash flows it will generate, discounted to the reference date for the valuation exercise (normally, the day of the calculation). A survey article was written in Parker (1968), where it was stated that the earliest interest rate tables (use to discount value to the present) dated back to 1340. Works from Boulding (1935) and Keynes (1936) derived the IRR (Internal Rate of Return) for an investment. Samuelson (1937) compared the IRR and NPV (Net Present Value) approaches, arguing that rational investors should maximize NPV and not IRR. The previously mentioned works and the publication of Joel Dean’s reference book (Dean, 1951) on capital budgeting set the basis for the widespread use of the discounted cash flow approach into all business areas, aided by developments in portfolio theory. Nowadays, probably the model with more widespread use is the FCFE/FCFF (Free Cash Flow to Equity and Free Cash Flow to Firm) model. For simplification purposes, we will focus on the FCFE model, which basically is the FCF model’s version for the potential dividends. The focus is to value the business based on its dividends (potential or real), and thus care must be taken in order not to double count cash flows (this matter was treated in this case) and to assess what use is given to that excess cash flow – if it is invested wisely, what returns will come of them, how it is accounted for, etc. (Damodaran, 2006). The bridge to the FCFF model is straightforward; the FCFF includes FCFE and added cash that is owed to debtholders. References: Parker, R.H. (1968). “Discounted Cash Flow in Historical Perspective”, Journal of Accounting Research, v6, pp58-71. Boulding, K.E. (1935). “The Theory of a Single Investment”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, v49, pp479-494. Keynes, J. M. (1936). “The General Theory of Employment”, Macmillan, London. Samuelson, P. (1937). “Some Aspects of the Pure Theory of Capital”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, v51, pp. 469–496. Dean, Joel. (1951). “Capital Budgeting”, Columbia University Press, New York. Damodaran, A. (2006). “Damodaran on Valuation”, Second Edition, John Wiley and Sons, New York.

All information is taken from public sources and with consented company interviews.

Opportunities for value creation may be found in awkward and difficult circumstances. Good strategic thinking and ability to act swiftly are usually crucial to be able to take advantage of such tough environments. Amidst a country-wide economic crisis and general disbelief, José de Mello Group (JMG) saw one of its main assets’ (Brisa Highways) market value tumble down to unforeseen figures and was forced to act on it. Brisa’s main partners were eager in overpowering JMG’s control of the company, and outside pressure from Deutsche Bank was rising, due to the use of Brisa’s shares as collateral. JMG would have to revise its strategy and see if Brisa was worth fighting for; the market implicit assessment about the company’s prospects was very penalizing, but JMG’s predictions on Brisa’s future performance indicated that this could be an investment opportunity. Would it be wise to bet against the market?

This study is excellent for finance and strategy courses, at both undergraduate and graduate levels. Company valuation and corporate strategy are required.

In the early months of the 2007-08 financial crises, a loan manager faces a real estate financing decision. Should he approve a bullet structure three-year loan to a longstanding client, a legendary Texan developer? The developer, who near retirement downsized his business, is seeking financing for his only project: residential or commercial development on an attractive piece of land in suburban Houston. The loan manager considers the decision in light of the mortgage market turmoil, seeing commercial projects as safer, but also factoring that the residential market could bring higher returns if the market stabilizes soon. The manager collects the data and asks an analyst to assess the risks; that ultimately requires assessing the economics of both projects from both the bank's and the developer's perspectives. The bank could still change the interest rate on the loan to receive adequate compensation for the risk it carries, but the loan manager knows that doing so will change their long-term client willingness to take on the loan.

The learning outcomes of this paper are as follows: to understand the context of seaport logistics and supply chain design structure, to apply Monte Carlo simulation in the interface of the supply chain and to analyze the Monte Carlo simulation algorithm and statistical techniques for identifying the key seaport logistics factors.

It was 9:00 p.m. on November 10, 2020, and Nishadh Amonkar, the CEO of OCTO supply chain management (SCM) was glued to the television watching the final cricket match of the Indian Premier League, 2020. Amonkar’s mobile phone rang and it was a call from Vinod Nair, a member Logistics Panel of Ranji Industries Federation. Nair informed Amonkar that it was related to the rejection of several export consignments of agricultural products from Ranji (in the western part of India). The rejection was due to the deterioration in the quality of the exported agricultural products during transit from Ranji to various locations in Europe.

This course is suitable at the MBA level for the following courses: Operations research (Focus/Session: Applications on Monte Carlo Simulation). SCM (Focus/Session: Global SCM, Logistics Planning, Distribution Network). Logistics management (Focus/Session: Transportation Planning). Business statistics (Focus/Session: Application of Hypothesis Testing).

Teaching Notes are available for educators only.

CSS 9: Operations and logistics.

The case compares two U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) programs from the 1970s and 1980s: (1) “stealth” combat aircraft, capable of evading detection or engagement by anti-aircraft systems, and (2) precision attack of hardened ground vehicles from “standoff” distances, i.e., far behind the battle lines. Conceived at roughly the same time, motivated by the same strategic challenge, and initially driven by the same DoD organization, stealth combat aircraft progressed from idea to deployment in less than eight years---an astounding pace for a complex military system---while a demonstrated system for standoff precision strike against mobile ground targets was not fully implemented. The case highlights the critical role of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), part of the DoD, regarded as one of the most innovative entities in the U.S. federal government.

The case highlights factors that facilitate rapid, successful implementation of radically innovative or disruptive concepts. Students are introduced to the organizational realities facing such projects, including issues of strategic clarity, interdepartmental competition and cooperation, executive leadership, and timing. Comparing the differences in implementation of the two programs in the case reveals issues relevant to any large organization seeking to bring innovative concepts to fruition.

OutReach Networks is taught in Darden's Entrepreneurial Finance and Private Equity elective. A teaching note for this case is available for instructors as well as an Excel file for student analysis. This introductory case explores the venture capital (VC) and discounted cash flow (DCF) methods of valuing early-stage companies. OutReach Networks is an unusual start-up company in that it was profitable early in its development and did not have to seek VC funding to support its growth. The company has grown quickly and may soon be a candidate for an IPO. In November 2011, an experienced venture capitalist approaches the founder with an offer to invest $30 million in exchange for 30% of the company. While the founder sees some benefit from the VC's experience in preparing the firm for an IPO and the funding enabling it to scale more quickly, he cannot understand how the VC has arrived at this offer. The founder believes the funding should be worth no more than 15% of his firm. Potential reasons for the disagreement over the valuation are (1) differences in the founder's and investor's view of the company's risk, (2) disagreement over the appropriate set of comparable companies, and (3) differences in the methods used to calculate the percentage equity stake. The case is appropriate for use in courses covering entrepreneurial finance or venture capital.