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Oil price moves have limited impact on wider inflation

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

In reality, the oil price has less influence on inflationary trends and expectations today than in earlier decades, partly because central banks have greater credibility and…

ECB and Fed to delay rate cuts to sustain disinflation

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EU/US

Disinflation is underway on both sides of the North Atlantic, but it is not yet deeply entrenched, giving both central banks a reason to delay cuts. The ECB must contend with…

Inflation expectations matter more than unemployment

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INTERNATIONAL

The surge in inflation this year owes more to supply bottlenecks caused by the release of pent-up demand than to falling unemployment. In the decade before the pandemic, US…

Shrinking market imbalances will help cut US inflation

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UNITED STATES

An embedded wage-price spiral took hold in the late 1970s; the price of breaking it was almost a decade of high unemployment. Today's situation more closely resembles 1946-48…

Oil prices are likely to stay high to the end of 2018

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INTERNATIONAL

Outlook for the oil price.

ECB will extend QE programme on December 3

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EURO-AREA

At a press conference after the previous meeting on October 22, ECB President Mario Draghi was clear that downside risks to the inflation outlook might lead to a reassessment at…

Central banks will be slow to drop targeting prices

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INTERNATIONAL

Inflation targeting.

Mexican fiscal consolidation steady despite oil price

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MEXICO

The outlook for fiscal consolidation.

Higher wages could bring deflation to an end in Japan

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JAPAN

The economic outlook for Japan.

Prospects for fossil fuels in 2018

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PROSPECTS 2018

US shale is now the swing provider in global oil markets and rising prices have encouraged production increases. With prices for future delivery lower than spot rates, buyers are…