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1 – 10 of over 19000Evangelos Kalampokis, Efthimios Tambouris and Konstantinos Tarabanis
The purpose of this paper is to consolidate existing knowledge and provide a deeper understanding of the use of social media (SM) data for predictions in various areas, such as…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to consolidate existing knowledge and provide a deeper understanding of the use of social media (SM) data for predictions in various areas, such as disease outbreaks, product sales, stock market volatility and elections outcome predictions.
Design/methodology/approach
The scientific literature was systematically reviewed to identify relevant empirical studies. These studies were analysed and synthesized in the form of a proposed conceptual framework, which was thereafter applied to further analyse this literature, hence gaining new insights into the field.
Findings
The proposed framework reveals that all relevant studies can be decomposed into a small number of steps, and different approaches can be followed in each step. The application of the framework resulted in interesting findings. For example, most studies support SM predictive power, however, more than one-third of these studies infer predictive power without employing predictive analytics. In addition, analysis suggests that there is a clear need for more advanced sentiment analysis methods as well as methods for identifying search terms for collection and filtering of raw SM data.
Originality/value
The proposed framework enables researchers to classify and evaluate existing studies, to design scientifically rigorous new studies and to identify the field's weaknesses, hence proposing future research directions.
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Galit Shmueli, Marko Sarstedt, Joseph F. Hair, Jun-Hwa Cheah, Hiram Ting, Santha Vaithilingam and Christian M. Ringle
Partial least squares (PLS) has been introduced as a “causal-predictive” approach to structural equation modeling (SEM), designed to overcome the apparent dichotomy between…
Abstract
Purpose
Partial least squares (PLS) has been introduced as a “causal-predictive” approach to structural equation modeling (SEM), designed to overcome the apparent dichotomy between explanation and prediction. However, while researchers using PLS-SEM routinely stress the predictive nature of their analyses, model evaluation assessment relies exclusively on metrics designed to assess the path model’s explanatory power. Recent research has proposed PLSpredict, a holdout sample-based procedure that generates case-level predictions on an item or a construct level. This paper offers guidelines for applying PLSpredict and explains the key choices researchers need to make using the procedure.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors discuss the need for prediction-oriented model evaluations in PLS-SEM and conceptually explain and further advance the PLSpredict method. In addition, they illustrate the PLSpredict procedure’s use with a tourism marketing model and provide recommendations on how the results should be interpreted. While the focus of the paper is on the PLSpredict procedure, the overarching aim is to encourage the routine prediction-oriented assessment in PLS-SEM analyses.
Findings
The paper advances PLSpredict and offers guidance on how to use this prediction-oriented model evaluation approach. Researchers should routinely consider the assessment of the predictive power of their PLS path models. PLSpredict is a useful and straightforward approach to evaluate the out-of-sample predictive capabilities of PLS path models that researchers can apply in their studies.
Research limitations/implications
Future research should seek to extend PLSpredict’s capabilities, for example, by developing more benchmarks for comparing PLS-SEM results and empirically contrasting the earliest antecedent and the direct antecedent approaches to predictive power assessment.
Practical implications
This paper offers clear guidelines for using PLSpredict, which researchers and practitioners should routinely apply as part of their PLS-SEM analyses.
Originality/value
This research substantiates the use of PLSpredict. It provides marketing researchers and practitioners with the knowledge they need to properly assess, report and interpret PLS-SEM results. Thereby, this research contributes to safeguarding the rigor of marketing studies using PLS-SEM.
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Dezhong Xu, Bin Li and Tarlok Singh
The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between gold–platinum price ratio (GP) and stock returns in international stock markets. The study addresses three…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between gold–platinum price ratio (GP) and stock returns in international stock markets. The study addresses three empirical questions: (1) Does GP have robust predictive power in international stock markets? (2) Does GP outperform other macroeconomic variables in international stock markets? (3) What is the relationship between GP and stock market returns during economic recessions?
Design/methodology/approach
The study mainly uses OLS regressions to perform empirical tests for a comprehensive set of 17 advanced international stock markets and overall world market. The monthly data is used for the period January 1978 to July 2019, 499 observations for each market.
Findings
The study finds that the first-difference of GP (ΔGP), not the initial-level of GP, has strong predictive power for stock returns, both in short- and long-time horizons. The results remain robust after controlling for a number of macroeconomic predictors. The out-of-sample test results are significant, confirming the robustness of the predictive power of ΔGP.
Originality/value
This study is the first to examine the ability of the ΔGP to predict stock returns, and provide novel evidence on the relationship between ΔGP and international stock markets. The study draws on behavioral finance theory, specifically the myopic loss aversion, the herd effect and the limited attention theory, to explain the predictability of stock returns in international stock markets.
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Hernaldo Saldías Molina, Juan Dixon Rojas and Luis Morán Tamayo
The purpose of this paper is to implement a finite set model predictive control algorithm to a shunt (or parallel), multilevel (cascaded H-bridge) active power filter (APF)…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to implement a finite set model predictive control algorithm to a shunt (or parallel), multilevel (cascaded H-bridge) active power filter (APF). Specifically, the purpose is to get a controller that could compensate the mains current and, at the same time, to control the voltages of its capacitors. This strategy avoids the use of multiple PWM carriers or another type of special modulator, and requires a relatively low processing power.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper is focussed in the application of the predictive controller to a single-phase parallel APF composed for two H-bridges connected in series. The same methodology can be applied to a three-phase APF. In the DC buses of each H-bridge, a floating capacitor was connected, whose voltage is regulated by the predictive controller. The controller is composed by, first, a model for the charge/discharge dynamics for each floating capacitor and a model for the output current of the APF; second, a cost function; and third, an optimization algorithm that is able to control all these variables at the same time, choosing in each sample period the best combination of firing pulses.
Findings
The controller can track the voltage references, compensate the current harmonics and compensate reactive power with an algorithm that evaluates only the three nearest voltage levels to the last voltage level applied in the inverter. This strategy decreases the number of calculations required by the predictive algorithm. This controller can be applied to the general case of a single-phase multilevel APF of N-levels and extend it to the three-phase case without major problems.
Research limitations/implications
The implemented controller, when the authors consider a constant sample time, gives a mains current with a Total Harmonic Distortion (THD-I) slightly greater in comparison with the base algorithm (that evaluates all the voltage levels). However, when the authors consider the processing times under the same processor, the implemented algorithm requires less time to get the optimal values, can get lower sampling times and then a best performance in terms of THD-I. To implement the controller in a three-phase APF, a faster Digital Signal Processor would be required.
Originality/value
The implemented solution uses a model for the charge/discharge of the capacitors and for the filter current that enable to operate the cascaded multilevel inverter with asymmetrical voltages while compensates the mains currents, with a predictive algorithm that requires a relatively low amount of calculations.
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Gyeongcheol Cho, Sunmee Kim, Jonathan Lee, Heungsun Hwang, Marko Sarstedt and Christian M. Ringle
Generalized structured component analysis (GSCA) and partial least squares path modeling (PLSPM) are two key component-based approaches to structural equation modeling that…
Abstract
Purpose
Generalized structured component analysis (GSCA) and partial least squares path modeling (PLSPM) are two key component-based approaches to structural equation modeling that facilitate the analysis of theoretically established models in terms of both explanation and prediction. This study aims to offer a comparative evaluation of GSCA and PLSPM in a predictive modeling framework.
Design/methodology/approach
A simulation study compares the predictive performance of GSCA and PLSPM under various simulation conditions and different prediction types of correctly specified and misspecified models.
Findings
The results suggest that GSCA with reflective composite indicators (GSCAR) is the most versatile approach. For observed prediction, which uses the component scores to generate prediction for the indicators, GSCAR performs slightly better than PLSPM with mode A. For operative prediction, which considers all parameter estimates to generate predictions, both methods perform equally well. GSCA with formative composite indicators and PLSPM with mode B generally lag behind the other methods.
Research limitations/implications
Future research may further assess the methods’ prediction precision, considering more experimental factors with a wider range of levels, including more extreme ones.
Practical implications
When prediction is the primary study aim, researchers should generally revert to GSCAR, considering its performance for observed and operative prediction together.
Originality/value
This research is the first to compare the relative efficacy of GSCA and PLSPM in terms of predictive power.
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To identify predictors of corporate financial distress, using the discriminant and logit models, in an emerging market over a period of economic turbulence and to reveal the…
Abstract
Purpose
To identify predictors of corporate financial distress, using the discriminant and logit models, in an emerging market over a period of economic turbulence and to reveal the comparative predictive and classification accuracies of the models in this different environmental setting.
Design/methodology/approach
The research relies on a sample of 27 failed and 27 non‐failed manufacturing firms listed in the Istanbul Stock Exchange over the 1996‐2003 period, which includes a period of high economic growth (1996‐1999) followed by an economic crisis period (2000‐2002). The two well‐known methods, discriminant analysis and logit, are compared on the basis of a better overall fit and a higher percentage of correct classification under changing economic conditions. Furthermore, this research attempts to reveal the changes, if any, in the bankruptcy predictors, from those found in the earlier studies that rested on the data from the developed markets.
Findings
The logistic regression model is found to have higher classification power and predictive accuracy, over the four years prior to bankruptcy, than the discriminant model. In this research, the discriminant and logit models identify the same number of significant predictors out of the total variables analyzed, and six of these are common in both. EBITDA/total assets is the most important predictor of financial distress in both models. The logit model identifies operating profit margin and the proportion of trade credit within total claims ratios as the second and third most important predictors, respectively.
Originality/value
This paper reveals the accuracy with which the discriminant and logit models work in an emerging market over a period when firms face high uncertainty and turbulence. This study may be extended to other emerging markets to eliminate the limitation of the small sample size in this study and to further validate the use of these models in the developing countries. This can serve to make the methods important decision tools for managers and investors in these volatile markets.
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Cristiano A.B. Castro, Felipe Zambaldi and Mateus Canniatti Ponchio
This paper aims to conceptualize two dimensions of active innovation resistance (AIR): cognitive active resistance and emotional active resistance. A scale to measure this…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to conceptualize two dimensions of active innovation resistance (AIR): cognitive active resistance and emotional active resistance. A scale to measure this construct is proposed and tested.
Design/methodology/approach
Three studies were conducted, with sample sizes of 195, 190 and 186, to test the discriminant, convergent, nomological and criterion validity of the proposed AIRc+e scale and to analyze its explanatory and predictive power. Data were gathered using the online platform of a US-based research company.
Findings
The authors provide evidence that AIR is a two-dimension construct comprising a cognitive and an emotional dimension. AIR was modeled as a third-order construct, comprising two second-order constructs, cognitive active resistance and emotional active resistance. The impact of adding an emotion dimension to active resistance was therefore assessed, and the results indicated that the explanatory and predictive power of the AIR measure improved as expected.
Practical implications
Consumers are most likely to resist innovations launched onto the marketplace, either prior to or after evaluating them. A better understanding of the reasons behind their resistance to innovation, as well as of its mechanisms, is of great importance in decreasing an innovation’s chances of failure.
Originality/value
This study proposes that incorporating emotion into the assessment of AIR will result in a deeper understanding of adoption and rejection behavior, expanding the current knowledge of consumer behavior in innovation-related, new product adoption and decisions.
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Joseph F. Hair, Jeffrey J. Risher, Marko Sarstedt and Christian M. Ringle
The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive, yet concise, overview of the considerations and metrics required for partial least squares structural equation modeling…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive, yet concise, overview of the considerations and metrics required for partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) analysis and result reporting. Preliminary considerations are summarized first, including reasons for choosing PLS-SEM, recommended sample size in selected contexts, distributional assumptions, use of secondary data, statistical power and the need for goodness-of-fit testing. Next, the metrics as well as the rules of thumb that should be applied to assess the PLS-SEM results are covered. Besides presenting established PLS-SEM evaluation criteria, the overview includes the following new guidelines: PLSpredict (i.e., a novel approach for assessing a model’s out-of-sample prediction), metrics for model comparisons, and several complementary methods for checking the results’ robustness.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper provides an overview of previously and recently proposed metrics as well as rules of thumb for evaluating the research results based on the application of PLS-SEM.
Findings
Most of the previously applied metrics for evaluating PLS-SEM results are still relevant. Nevertheless, scholars need to be knowledgeable about recently proposed metrics (e.g. model comparison criteria) and methods (e.g. endogeneity assessment, latent class analysis and PLSpredict), and when and how to apply them to extend their analyses.
Research limitations/implications
Methodological developments associated with PLS-SEM are rapidly emerging. The metrics reported in this paper are useful for current applications, but must always be up to date with the latest developments in the PLS-SEM method.
Originality/value
In light of more recent research and methodological developments in the PLS-SEM domain, guidelines for the method’s use need to be continuously extended and updated. This paper is the most current and comprehensive summary of the PLS-SEM method and the metrics applied to assess its solutions.
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Chen‐Yuan Chen, Hsien‐Chueh Peter Yang, Cheng‐Wu Chen and Tsung‐Hao Chen
This study aims to apply a systematic statistical approach, including several plot indexes, to diagnose the goodness of fit of a logistic regression model, and then to detect the…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to apply a systematic statistical approach, including several plot indexes, to diagnose the goodness of fit of a logistic regression model, and then to detect the outliers and influential observations of the data from experimental data.
Design/methodology/approach
The proposed statistical approach is applied to analyze some experimental data on internal solitary wave propagation.
Findings
A suitable logistic regression model in which the relationship between the response variable and the explanatory variables is found. The problem of multicollinearity is tested. It was found that certain observations would not have the problem of multicollinearity. The P‐values for both the Pearson and deviance χ2 tests are greater than 0.05. However, the Pearson χ2 value is larger than the degrees of freedom. This finding indicates that although this model fits the data, it has a slight overdispersion. After three outliers and influential observations (cases 11, 27, and 49) are removed from the data, and the remaining observations are refitted the goodness‐of‐fit of the revised model to the data is improved.
Practical implications
A comparison of the four predictive powers: R2, max‐rescaled R2, the Somers' D, and the concordance index c, shows that the revised model has better predictive abilities than the original model.
Originality/value
The goodness‐of‐fit and prediction ability of the revised logistic regression model are more appropriate than those of the original model.
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Sung-Shun Weng, Ming-Hsien Yang and Pei-I Hsiao
An important issue for researchers and managers of organizations is the understanding of user-perceived values of collective intelligence (UPVoCI) in online social networks (OSNs…
Abstract
Purpose
An important issue for researchers and managers of organizations is the understanding of user-perceived values of collective intelligence (UPVoCI) in online social networks (OSNs) with the purpose of helping organizations identify the values that cause internet users and members of OSNs to share information and knowledge during they participate in collective intelligence (co-intelligence) activities. However, the development of measurement instruments and predictive models and rules for predicting UPVoCI are inadequate. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
A novel measurement scale was developed to measure UPVoCI using a user-oriented research strategy that is based on qualitative and quantitative research methods. This work also identified critical indicators and constructed predictive models and rules for forecasting UPVoCI by multivariate statistical methods and data mining.
Findings
A 17-item scale of UPVoCI was developed and 17 measurement items were associated with two major dimensions, which are the user-perceived social value of co-intelligence and the user-perceived problem-solving value of co-intelligence. Ten critical indicators of UPVoCI that are important in predicting UPVoCI and 12 rules for predicting UPVoCI were identified and a refined model for predicting UPVoCI was constructed.
Research limitations/implications
The results in this work allow organizations to determine the perceived value of members of OSNs and the benefits of their participating in co-intelligence activities, as a basis for adjusting user-oriented online co-intelligence and service strategies with the goal of improving collaborative innovation performance.
Originality/value
This work systematically developed a novel scale for measuring UPVoCI in OSNs and constructed new models and rules for predicting UPVoCI in OSNs.
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