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Article
Publication date: 26 September 2023

Mohammed Ayoub Ledhem and Warda Moussaoui

This paper aims to apply several data mining techniques for predicting the daily precision improvement of Jakarta Islamic Index (JKII) prices based on big data of symmetric…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to apply several data mining techniques for predicting the daily precision improvement of Jakarta Islamic Index (JKII) prices based on big data of symmetric volatility in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

This research uses big data mining techniques to predict daily precision improvement of JKII prices by applying the AdaBoost, K-nearest neighbor, random forest and artificial neural networks. This research uses big data with symmetric volatility as inputs in the predicting model, whereas the closing prices of JKII were used as the target outputs of daily precision improvement. For choosing the optimal prediction performance according to the criteria of the lowest prediction errors, this research uses four metrics of mean absolute error, mean squared error, root mean squared error and R-squared.

Findings

The experimental results determine that the optimal technique for predicting the daily precision improvement of the JKII prices in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market is the AdaBoost technique, which generates the optimal predicting performance with the lowest prediction errors, and provides the optimum knowledge from the big data of symmetric volatility in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market. In addition, the random forest technique is also considered another robust technique in predicting the daily precision improvement of the JKII prices as it delivers closer values to the optimal performance of the AdaBoost technique.

Practical implications

This research is filling the literature gap of the absence of using big data mining techniques in the prediction process of Islamic stock markets by delivering new operational techniques for predicting the daily stock precision improvement. Also, it helps investors to manage the optimal portfolios and to decrease the risk of trading in global Islamic stock markets based on using big data mining of symmetric volatility.

Originality/value

This research is a pioneer in using big data mining of symmetric volatility in the prediction of an Islamic stock market index.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 19 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 March 2024

Manpreet Kaur, Amit Kumar and Anil Kumar Mittal

In past decades, artificial neural network (ANN) models have revolutionised various stock market operations due to their superior ability to deal with nonlinear data and garnered…

Abstract

Purpose

In past decades, artificial neural network (ANN) models have revolutionised various stock market operations due to their superior ability to deal with nonlinear data and garnered considerable attention from researchers worldwide. The present study aims to synthesize the research field concerning ANN applications in the stock market to a) systematically map the research trends, key contributors, scientific collaborations, and knowledge structure, and b) uncover the challenges and future research areas in the field.

Design/methodology/approach

To provide a comprehensive appraisal of the extant literature, the study adopted the mixed approach of quantitative (bibliometric analysis) and qualitative (intensive review of influential articles) assessment to analyse 1,483 articles published in the Scopus and Web of Science indexed journals during 1992–2022. The bibliographic data was processed and analysed using VOSviewer and R software.

Findings

The results revealed the proliferation of articles since 2018, with China as the dominant country, Wang J as the most prolific author, “Expert Systems with Applications” as the leading journal, “computer science” as the dominant subject area, and “stock price forecasting” as the predominantly explored research theme in the field. Furthermore, “portfolio optimization”, “sentiment analysis”, “algorithmic trading”, and “crisis prediction” are found as recently emerged research areas.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study is a novel attempt that holistically assesses the existing literature on ANN applications throughout the entire domain of stock market. The main contribution of the current study lies in discussing the challenges along with the viable methodological solutions and providing application area-wise knowledge gaps for future studies.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 May 2023

Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang

For policymakers and participants of financial markets, predictions of trading volumes of financial indices are important issues. This study aims to address such a prediction…

Abstract

Purpose

For policymakers and participants of financial markets, predictions of trading volumes of financial indices are important issues. This study aims to address such a prediction problem based on the CSI300 nearby futures by using high-frequency data recorded each minute from the launch date of the futures to roughly two years after constituent stocks of the futures all becoming shortable, a time period witnessing significantly increased trading activities.

Design/methodology/approach

In order to answer questions as follows, this study adopts the neural network for modeling the irregular trading volume series of the CSI300 nearby futures: are the research able to utilize the lags of the trading volume series to make predictions; if this is the case, how far can the predictions go and how accurate can the predictions be; can this research use predictive information from trading volumes of the CSI300 spot and first distant futures for improving prediction accuracy and what is the corresponding magnitude; how sophisticated is the model; and how robust are its predictions?

Findings

The results of this study show that a simple neural network model could be constructed with 10 hidden neurons to robustly predict the trading volume of the CSI300 nearby futures using 1–20 min ahead trading volume data. The model leads to the root mean square error of about 955 contracts. Utilizing additional predictive information from trading volumes of the CSI300 spot and first distant futures could further benefit prediction accuracy and the magnitude of improvements is about 1–2%. This benefit is particularly significant when the trading volume of the CSI300 nearby futures is close to be zero. Another benefit, at the cost of the model becoming slightly more sophisticated with more hidden neurons, is that predictions could be generated through 1–30 min ahead trading volume data.

Originality/value

The results of this study could be used for multiple purposes, including designing financial index trading systems and platforms, monitoring systematic financial risks and building financial index price forecasting.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 March 2024

Yanping Liu, Bo Yan and Xiaoxu Chen

This paper studies the optimal decision-making and coordination problem of a dual-channel fresh agricultural product (FAP) supply chain. The purpose is to analyze the impact of…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper studies the optimal decision-making and coordination problem of a dual-channel fresh agricultural product (FAP) supply chain. The purpose is to analyze the impact of information sharing on optimal decisions and propose a coordination mechanism to encourage supply chain members to share information.

Design/methodology/approach

The two-echelon dual-channel FAP supply chain includes a manufacturer and a retailer. By using the Stackelberg game theory and the backward induction method, the optimal decisions are obtained under information symmetry and asymmetry and the coordination contract is designed.

Findings

The results show that supply chain members should comprehensively evaluate the specific situation of product attributes, coefficient of freshness-keeping cost and network operating costs to make decisions. Asymmetric information can exacerbate the deviation of optimal decisions among supply chain members and information sharing is always beneficial to manufacturers but not to retailers. The improved revenue-sharing and cost-sharing contract is an effective coordination mechanism.

Practical implications

The conclusions can provide theoretical guidance for supply chain managers to deal with information asymmetry and improve the competitiveness of the supply chain.

Originality/value

This paper combines the three characteristics that are most closely related to the reality of supply chains, including horizontal and vertical competition of different channels, the perishable characteristics of FAPs and the uncertainty generated by asymmetric demand information.

Details

International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-0552

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 29 January 2024

Ariq Idris Annaufal, April Lia Dina Mariyana and Ratna Roostika

The financial sector’s growing interest in leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) for forecasting has been noted in recent years. In this chapter, we delve into the application…

Abstract

The financial sector’s growing interest in leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) for forecasting has been noted in recent years. In this chapter, we delve into the application of AI in financial forecasting within Indonesia’s stock market. Our primary focus is to assess how AI’s prediction potential can impact investors and financial regulators in this context. Our review spans existing literature on AI and financial forecasting, recent developments in the Indonesian stock market, and ethical and regulatory concerns that surround AI in finance. Our analysis indicates that AI can enhance forecast accuracy in Indonesia’s stock exchange; however, we must also consider limitations and challenges.

Details

Digital Technology and Changing Roles in Managerial and Financial Accounting: Theoretical Knowledge and Practical Application
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80455-973-4

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 14 March 2024

Mousumi Bose, Lilly Ye and Yiming Zhuang

Today's marketing is dominated by decision-making based on artificial intelligence and machine learning. This study focuses on one semi- and unsupervised machine learning…

Abstract

Today's marketing is dominated by decision-making based on artificial intelligence and machine learning. This study focuses on one semi- and unsupervised machine learning technique, generative adversarial networks (GANs). GANs are a type of deep learning architecture capable of generating new data similar to the training data that were used to train it, and thus, it is designed to learn a generative model that can produce new samples. GANs have been used in multiple marketing areas, especially in creating images and video and providing customized consumer contents. Through providing a holistic picture of GANs, including its advantage, disadvantage, ethical considerations, and its current application, the study attempts to provide business some strategical orientations, including formulating strong marketing positioning, creating consumer lifetime values, and delivering desired marketing tactics in product, promotion, pricing, and distribution channel. Through using GANs, marketers will create unique experiences for consumers, build strategic focus, and gain competitive advantages. This study is an original endeavor in discussing GANs in marketing, offering fresh insights in this research topic.

Details

The Impact of Digitalization on Current Marketing Strategies
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-686-3

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 December 2022

Mumtaz Ali, Ahmed Samour, Foday Joof and Turgut Tursoy

This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing to empirically analyze the short and long links among the tested variables.

Findings

The ARDL estimations demonstrate a positive impact of oil price shocks and real income on housing market prices in both the phrases of the short and long run. Furthermore, the results reveal that gold price shocks negatively affect housing prices both in the short and long run. The result can be attributed to China’s housing market and advanced infrastructure, resulting in a drop in housing prices as gold prices increase. Additionally, the prediction of housing market prices will provide a base and direction for housing market investors to forecast housing prices and avoid losses.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to analyze the effect of gold price shocks on housing market prices in China.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 November 2022

Ruchi Kejriwal, Monika Garg and Gaurav Sarin

Stock market has always been lucrative for various investors. But, because of its speculative nature, it is difficult to predict the price movement. Investors have been using both…

1020

Abstract

Purpose

Stock market has always been lucrative for various investors. But, because of its speculative nature, it is difficult to predict the price movement. Investors have been using both fundamental and technical analysis to predict the prices. Fundamental analysis helps to study structured data of the company. Technical analysis helps to study price trends, and with the increasing and easy availability of unstructured data have made it important to study the market sentiment. Market sentiment has a major impact on the prices in short run. Hence, the purpose is to understand the market sentiment timely and effectively.

Design/methodology/approach

The research includes text mining and then creating various models for classification. The accuracy of these models is checked using confusion matrix.

Findings

Out of the six machine learning techniques used to create the classification model, kernel support vector machine gave the highest accuracy of 68%. This model can be now used to analyse the tweets, news and various other unstructured data to predict the price movement.

Originality/value

This study will help investors classify a news or a tweet into “positive”, “negative” or “neutral” quickly and determine the stock price trends.

Details

Vilakshan - XIMB Journal of Management, vol. 21 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0973-1954

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 August 2023

Kala Nisha Gopinathan, Punniyamoorthy Murugesan and Joshua Jebaraj Jeyaraj

This study aims to provide the best estimate of a stock's next day's closing price for a given day with the help of the hidden Markov model–Gaussian mixture model (HMM-GMM). The…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to provide the best estimate of a stock's next day's closing price for a given day with the help of the hidden Markov model–Gaussian mixture model (HMM-GMM). The results were compared with Hassan and Nath’s (2005) study using HMM and artificial neural network (ANN).

Design/methodology/approach

The study adopted an initialization approach wherein the hidden states of the HMM are modelled as GMM using two different approaches. Training of the HMM-GMM model is carried out using two methods. The prediction was performed by taking the closest closing price (having a log-likelihood within the tolerance range) to that of the present one as the closing price for the next day. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) has been used to compare the proposed GMM-HMM model against the models of the research study (Hassan and Nath, 2005).

Findings

Comparing this study with Hassan and Nath (2005) reveals that the proposed model outperformed in 66 out of the 72 different test cases. The results affirm that the model can be used for more accurate time series prediction. Further, compared with the results of the ANN model from Hassan's study, the proposed HMM model outperformed 24 of the 36 test cases.

Originality/value

The study introduced a novel initialization and two training/prediction approaches for the HMM-GMM model. It is to be noted that the study has introduced a GMM-HMM-based closing price estimator for stock price prediction. The proposed method of forecasting the stock prices using GMM-HMM is explainable and has a solid statistical foundation.

Details

International Journal of Intelligent Computing and Cybernetics, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-378X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 September 2023

Shaghayegh Abolmakarem, Farshid Abdi, Kaveh Khalili-Damghani and Hosein Didehkhani

This paper aims to propose an improved version of portfolio optimization model through the prediction of the future behavior of stock returns using a combined wavelet-based long…

100

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose an improved version of portfolio optimization model through the prediction of the future behavior of stock returns using a combined wavelet-based long short-term memory (LSTM).

Design/methodology/approach

First, data are gathered and divided into two parts, namely, “past data” and “real data.” In the second stage, the wavelet transform is proposed to decompose the stock closing price time series into a set of coefficients. The derived coefficients are taken as an input to the LSTM model to predict the stock closing price time series and the “future data” is created. In the third stage, the mean-variance portfolio optimization problem (MVPOP) has iteratively been run using the “past,” “future” and “real” data sets. The epsilon-constraint method is adapted to generate the Pareto front for all three runes of MVPOP.

Findings

The real daily stock closing price time series of six stocks from the FTSE 100 between January 1, 2000, and December 30, 2020, is used to check the applicability and efficacy of the proposed approach. The comparisons of “future,” “past” and “real” Pareto fronts showed that the “future” Pareto front is closer to the “real” Pareto front. This demonstrates the efficacy and applicability of proposed approach.

Originality/value

Most of the classic Markowitz-based portfolio optimization models used past information to estimate the associated parameters of the stocks. This study revealed that the prediction of the future behavior of stock returns using a combined wavelet-based LSTM improved the performance of the portfolio.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

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