Search results

Mauritius is a Small Island Development State (SIDS) with limited resources, and it has been witnessed that many containers used for storing household and industrial products are made from plastic. When discarded as waste, those plastic containers pose a serious environmental and economic challenge for Mauritius. Moreover, landfill space is getting increasingly scarce, and plastic waste is contaminating both land and water. Therefore, it is of the utmost necessity to develop solutions for Mauritius' plastic wastes. Due to its abundance and accessibility, plastic waste is a promising material for recycling and energy production. One potential solution is the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) to predict household plastic consumption, allowing policymakers to design effective strategies and initiatives to reduce plastic waste. Such information is a critical component to be able to efficiently plan for the collection and routing of trucks when collecting recyclable plastics. The development of new strategies for the recycling of plastic waste and development of new industry can address the import and export potential of the country to achieve self-sustainability as well as contribute to reduction in plastic pollution and amount of waste landfilled. These plastics can thereafter be used effectively for recycling and for the making of 3D printing filaments which fall under the SDGs 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure) and 12 (Responsible consumption and production).

This paper aims to apply several data mining techniques for predicting the daily precision improvement of Jakarta Islamic Index (JKII) prices based on big data of symmetric volatility in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market.

This research uses big data mining techniques to predict daily precision improvement of JKII prices by applying the AdaBoost, K-nearest neighbor, random forest and artificial neural networks. This research uses big data with symmetric volatility as inputs in the predicting model, whereas the closing prices of JKII were used as the target outputs of daily precision improvement. For choosing the optimal prediction performance according to the criteria of the lowest prediction errors, this research uses four metrics of mean absolute error, mean squared error, root mean squared error and R-squared.

The experimental results determine that the optimal technique for predicting the daily precision improvement of the JKII prices in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market is the AdaBoost technique, which generates the optimal predicting performance with the lowest prediction errors, and provides the optimum knowledge from the big data of symmetric volatility in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market. In addition, the random forest technique is also considered another robust technique in predicting the daily precision improvement of the JKII prices as it delivers closer values to the optimal performance of the AdaBoost technique.

This research is filling the literature gap of the absence of using big data mining techniques in the prediction process of Islamic stock markets by delivering new operational techniques for predicting the daily stock precision improvement. Also, it helps investors to manage the optimal portfolios and to decrease the risk of trading in global Islamic stock markets based on using big data mining of symmetric volatility.

This research is a pioneer in using big data mining of symmetric volatility in the prediction of an Islamic stock market index.

This study aims to investigate the merits of the unified model of task-specific motivation (UMTM) in predicting transfer of training and to investigate (relationships between) changes in UMTM components over time. In doing so, this study takes the multidimensionality of transfer motivation into account.

The authors collected data among 514 employees of the judiciary who filled in the UMTM questionnaire directly after the training and after three weeks. The data were analyzed by means of structural equation modelling.

The outcomes show that transfer motivation predicts transfer intention and transfer of training over time. Moreover, the study shows that (change in) transfer motivation is predicted by (change in) personal and contextual factors identified by the UMTM as antecedents of motivation.

This study describes the first longitudinal evaluation of the UMTM in the literature and shows its applicability for predicting transfer of training. It is also one of the few studies that investigate transfer motivation multidimensionally and the role it plays for transfer of training. As such, this study informs other transfer of training models about the nature of transfer motivation and how transfer of training could be predicted.

Higher energy conversion efficiency of internal combustion engine can be achieved with optimal control of unsteady in-cylinder flow fields inside a direct-injection (DI) engine. However, it remains a daunting task to predict the nonlinear and transient in-cylinder flow motion because they are highly complex which change both in space and time. Recently, machine learning methods have demonstrated great promises to infer relatively simple temporal flow field development. This paper aims to feature a physics-guided machine learning approach to realize high accuracy and generalization prediction for complex swirl-induced flow field motions.

To achieve high-fidelity time-series prediction of unsteady engine flow fields, this work features an automated machine learning framework with the following objectives: (1) The spatiotemporal physical constraint of the flow field structure is transferred to machine learning structure. (2) The ML inputs and targets are efficiently designed that ensure high model convergence with limited sets of experiments. (3) The prediction results are optimized by ensemble learning mechanism within the automated machine learning framework.

The proposed data-driven framework is proven effective in different time periods and different extent of unsteadiness of the flow dynamics, and the predicted flow fields are highly similar to the target field under various complex flow patterns. Among the described framework designs, the utilization of spatial flow field structure is the featured improvement to the time-series flow field prediction process.

The proposed flow field prediction framework could be generalized to different crank angle periods, cycles and swirl ratio conditions, which could greatly promote real-time flow control and reduce experiments on in-cylinder flow field measurement and diagnostics.

Elevated temperature material properties are essential in predicting structural member's behavior in high-temperature exposures such as fire. Even though experimental methodologies are available to determine these properties, advanced equipment with high costs is required to perform those tests. Therefore, performing those experiments frequently is not feasible, and the development of numerical techniques is beneficial. A numerical technique is proposed in this study to determine the temperature-dependent thermal properties of the material using the fire test results based on the Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based Finite Element (FE) model.

An ANN-based FE model was developed in the Matlab program to determine the elevated temperature thermal diffusivity, thermal conductivity and the product of specific heat and density of a material. The temperature distribution obtained from fire tests is fed to the ANN-based FE model and material properties are predicted to match the temperature distribution.

Elevated temperature thermal properties of normal-weight concrete (NWC), gypsum plasterboard and lightweight concrete were predicted using the developed model, and good agreement was observed with the actual material properties measured experimentally. The developed method could be utilized to determine any materials' elevated temperature material properties numerically with the adequate temperature distribution data obtained during a fire or heat transfer test.

Temperature-dependent material properties are important in predicting the behavior of structural elements exposed to fire. This research study developed a numerical technique utilizing ANN theories to determine elevated temperature thermal diffusivity, thermal conductivity and product of specific heat and density. Experimental methods are available to evaluate the material properties at high temperatures. However, these testing equipment are expensive and sophisticated; therefore, these equipment are not popular in laboratories causing a lack of high-temperature material properties for novel materials. However conducting a fire test to evaluate fire performance of any novel material is the common practice in the industry. ANN-based FE model developed in this study could utilize those fire testing results of the structural member (temperature distribution of the member throughout the fire tests) to predict the material's thermal properties.

The challenge of predicting changes in aggregate income and stock prices is one that has occupied the research agendas of economists. This paper aims to use the consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio to predict future income and stock prices.

To examine the stability of the consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio, the authors run a two-variable, two-lag reduced-form VAR in the vein of Cochrane (1994), using a lag of each respective ratio as exogenous to the VAR. Additionally, the authors estimate an AR(4) model for income and prices.

The consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio remain key to understanding future movements in income and stock prices. The consumption–income ratio significantly predicts future income in the USA, and aggregate income is easier to predict than consumption in the VAR model. The dividend–price ratio does not significantly predict future price growth. Consumption and dividend shocks have lasting impacts on income and prices.

The consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio are still key to understanding future movements in income and stock prices. The consumption–income ratio significantly predicts future income in the USA, and aggregate income is easier to predict than consumption in the VAR model. However, the dividend–price ratio does not significantly predict future price growth, a change from previous research from the 1990s, despite the increasing complexity of stock markets. Consumption and dividend shocks have lasting impacts on income and prices and appear to be significant drivers in both the short- and long-run variance in income and prices.

Forecasting population movement trends is crucial for implementing effective policies to regulate labor force growth and understand demographic changes. Combining migration theory expertise and neural network technology can bring a fresh perspective to international migration forecasting research.

This study proposes a conditional generative adversarial neural network model incorporating the migration knowledge – conditional generative adversarial network (MK-CGAN). By using the migration knowledge to design the parameters, MK-CGAN can effectively address the limited data problem, thereby enhancing the accuracy of migration forecasts.

The model was tested by forecasting migration flows between different countries and had good generalizability and validity. The results are robust as the proposed solutions can achieve lesser mean absolute error, mean squared error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and R² values, reaching 0.9855 compared to long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit, generative adversarial network (GAN) and the traditional gravity model.

This study is significant because it demonstrates a highly effective technique for predicting international migration using conditional GANs. By incorporating migration knowledge into our models, we can achieve prediction accuracy, gaining valuable insights into the differences between various model characteristics. We used SHapley Additive exPlanations to enhance our understanding of these differences and provide clear and concise explanations for our model predictions. The results demonstrated the theoretical significance and practical value of the MK-CGAN model in predicting international migration.

The purpose of this study is to propose a fast method for predicting flow fields with periodic behavior with verification in the context of a radial turbine to meet the urgent requirement to effectively capture the unsteady flow characteristics in turbomachinery. Aiming at meeting the urgent requirement to effectively capture the unsteady flow characteristics in turbomachinery, a fast method for predicting flow fields with periodic behavior is proposed here, with verification in the context of a radial turbine (RT).

Sparsity-promoting dynamic mode decomposition is used to determine the dominant coherent structures of the unsteady flow for mode selection, and for flow-field prediction, the characteristic parameters including amplitude and frequency are predicted using one-dimensional Gaussian fitting with flow rate and two-dimensional triangulation-based cubic interpolation with both flow rate and rotation speed. The flow field can be rebuilt using the predicted characteristic parameters and the chosen model.

Under single flow-rate variation conditions, the turbine flow field can be recovered using the first seven modes and fitted amplitude modulus and frequency with less than 5% error in the pressure field and less than 9.7% error in the velocity field. For the operating conditions with concurrent flow-rate and rotation-speed fluctuations, the relative error in the anticipated pressure field is likewise within an acceptable range. Compared to traditional numerical simulations, the method requires a lot less time while maintaining the accuracy of the prediction.

It would be challenging and interesting work to extend the current method to nonlinear problems.

The method presented herein provides an effective solution for the fast prediction of unsteady flow fields in the design of turbomachinery.

A flow prediction method based on sparsity-promoting dynamic mode decomposition was proposed and applied into a RT to predict the flow field under various operating conditions (both rotation speed and flow rate change) with reasonable prediction accuracy. Compared with numerical calculations or experiments, the proposed method can greatly reduce time and resource consumption for flow field visualization at design stage. Most of the physics information of the unsteady flow was maintained by reconstructing the flow modes in the prediction method, which may contribute to a deeper understanding of physical mechanisms.

We propose a risk factor for idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns.

We estimate a cross-sectional model of expected entropy that uses several common risk factors to predict idiosyncratic entropy.

We find a negative relationship between expected idiosyncratic entropy and returns. Specifically, the Carhart alpha of a low expected entropy portfolio exceeds the alpha of a high expected entropy portfolio by −2.37% per month. We also find a negative and significant price of expected idiosyncratic entropy risk using the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.

We propose a risk factor of idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.

The equipment resale price plays an important role in calculating the optimum time for equipment replacement. Some of the existing models that predict the equipment resale price do not take many of the influencing factors on the resale price into account. Other models consider more factors that influence equipment resale price, but they still with low accuracy because of the modeling techniques that were used. An easy tool is required to help in forecasting the resale price and support efficient decisions for equipment replacement. This research presents a machine learning (ML) computer model helping in forecasting accurately the equipment resale price.

A measuring method for the influencing factors that have impacts on the equipment resale price was determined. The values of those factors were measured for 1,700 pieces of equipment and their corresponding resale price. The data were used to develop a ML model that covers three types of equipment (loaders, excavators and bulldozers). The methodology used to develop the model applied three ML algorithms: the random forest regressor, extra trees regressor and decision tree regressor, to find an accurate model for the equipment resale price. The three algorithms were verified and tested with data of 340 pieces of equipment.

Using a large number of data to train the ML model resulted in a high-accuracy predicting model. The accuracy of the extra trees regressor algorithm was the highest among the three used algorithms to develop the ML model. The accuracy of the model is 98%. A computer interface is designed to make the use of the model easier.

The proposed model is accurate and makes it easy to predict the equipment resale price. The predicted resale price can be used to calculate equipment elements that are essential for developing a dependable equipment replacement plan. The proposed model was developed based on the most influencing factors on the equipment resale price and evaluation of those factors was done using reliable methods. The technique used to develop the model is the ML that proved its accuracy in modeling. The accuracy of the model, which is 98%, enhances the value of the model.