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This chapter describes the climatic setting of the Aral Sea region, investigates how the climate might change during the 21st century, and discusses potential impacts on water resources. Temperature and precipitation fields are analyzed to describe the mean climate for the Aral Sea region. Composite analysis has been employed on the precipitation field from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP v2.2) to assess the spatial pattern of changes in precipitation during the last several decades. Furthermore, temperature and precipitation projections available from the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report are synthesized to examine the nature of climate change during this century.

Cold season precipitation has increased during recent decades, particularly over the mountainous terrain east of the Aral Sea. Climate models also project increases (5−20%) in winter precipitation during the 21st century; however, several models suggest decreases (0 to −15%) in precipitation during summer. Despite the increases in cold season precipitation, the large increases in temperature (4°C) during the 21st century are likely to cause increased evaporation which could exacerbate the regional water budget deficit. This may constrain the water supply in the region, particularly during summer and autumn when water demand is highest. To fully understand the impacts of future climate change on regional water resources, hydrologic models that include anthropogenic management of water will be required.

The Monsoon Asian region has a much wider rainfall distribution than other regions of the world. The countries in this region are characterized mostly by floods and typhoons, which result from the interplay among the ocean, the atmosphere, and the land. Thus, many factors affect the strength of the rainfall, including sea surface temperatures in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, variations in solar output, land snow cover and soil moisture over the Asian continent, and the position and strength of prevailing winds. The links between these factors and monsoons appear to wax and wane over time, and the observational record is too short to explain this longer-term variability. Precipitation and surface wind maps of Asia during the summer months of June to August show the average spatial patterns of monsoon circulation and moisture.

Purpose – To investigate the potential impacts of future climate change in the United Kingdom on its road and rail networks.

Methodology/approach – The climate change impacts of increasing summer temperatures, decreasing winter temperatures, increased heavy precipitation, greater numbers of extreme weather events and rises in sea level are reviewed.

Findings – Surface transportation is the most exposed element to the localised impacts of climate change. High summer temperatures will result in road rutting, rail buckling and decreased thermal comfort, whereas more intense winter precipitation will cause flooding, landslips and bridge scour across all modes. For all impacts, it is the extreme events (e.g. heat waves and storms) that are potentially the most devastating. As shown, there are some positive climate change impacts. For example, in the case of winter maintenance, all transport networks stand to benefit.

Originality/value – In order for transport to react appropriately to the potential changes in climate, it is essential to understand how the road and rail networks may be affected and to build strategies for both adaptation and mitigation into plans for future developments for both modes.

This chapter presents a preliminary discussion of potential impacts of climate change on nomadic pastoralists on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Both climate model projections and observations suggest that (1) the QTP is becoming warmer and (2) precipitation is increasing. Evidence also suggests that (3) glaciers on the QTP are declining and (4) the permafrost is degrading. Nevertheless, little is known as to how climate change will affect nomadic pastoralists although environmental variability is likely to increase, which may again exacerbate production risks. Pastoral risk management strategies, such as mobility, may thus increase in importance. It is, however, difficult to translate changes in important climate measures like precipitation and temperature to effects on pastoralists and livestock since they mainly affect livestock indirectly via their effect on vegetation productivity. Consequently, to increase our understanding of climate change-related effects on pastoral adaptations, satellite-based measures directly linked to both vegetation characteristics and climatic variables should be utilized in future studies rather than, for example, overall changes in precipitation and temperature. Finally, official policies that constantly introduce reforms that reduce pastoral flexibility represent a far more significant threat for nomadic pastoralists on the QTP than climate change because they may result in the wholesale extinction of the pastoral culture.

While climatic conditions are believed to have some influence on triggering conflicts, the existing empirical results on the nature and statistical significance of their explanatory role are not conclusive. We construct a dataset for a sample of 139 countries which records the occurrence of an armed conflict, the annual average temperature and precipitation levels, as well as the relevant socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic measures over the 1961–2011 period. Using this dataset and controlling for the effect of relevant nonclimate variables, our comprehensive econometric analyses support the influencing role of climatic factors. Our results are robust and consistent with the hypothesis that climate warming is instrumental in raising the probability of onset of internal armed conflicts and suggests that, along with regulating population size and promoting political stability, controlling climate change is an effective factor for inducing peace by way of curtailing the onset of armed conflicts.

Japan is an island arc that sits in the monsoon region, and is under the influence of warm and moist air masses in summer and cool air masses in winter. The moisture that is taken in the lower leaves of the air masses over the sea is poured on the country by typhoons in summer, by snowfall in winter, by the “Bai-u Front” (in Japanese) in June and July, and by depressions and fronts in all seasons. Owing to Japan's slender shape and complicated landform, aerial differences in climate are great. Japan is located on the eastern edge of the monsoonal region of Asia, and its climate varies according to seasonal and regional conditions. Typically, heavy rains occur in various parts of the country, both during the rainy season in June and July and during the typhoon season from August to October. This precipitation is predominantly in the form of locally specific temporary downpours. In winter, the northern part of the country usually receives heavy snowfall that causes prolonged floods in spring from the melting of snow. The average amount of precipitation is 1,800mm (70 inches) a year. This is two or three times the amount received in other areas of the same latitude. In the southern Pacific coast areas, rainfall amounts to 4,000mm (160 inches). Precipitation in Tokyo is twice as much as other large cities in western countries. Some 50–60% of the annual precipitation in the Pacific coast of Japan is concentrated from June to October. Artificial changes in natural environments are rapid and large, accompanying the great increase in economic activity and exploitation (Nakano, Kadomura, Mizutani, Okuda, & Sekiguchi, 1974). Although the country's 10% of land area is flood prone, about 50% of the population lives in floodplains and almost 75% of the property is concentrated in the floodplains (JWF, 2006).

It is now established by the global scientific community that climate change is a hard reality but the changes are complex in nature and to a great extent uncertain. Global circulation models (GCMs) have made significant contributions to the theoretical understanding of potential climate impacts, but their shortcomings in terms of assessing climate impacts soon became apparent. GCMs demonstrate significant skill at the continental and hemispheric scales and incorporate a large proportion of the complexity of the global system. However, they are inherently unable to represent local subgrid-scale features and dynamics. The first generation approaches of climate change impact and vulnerability assessments are derived from GCMs downscaled to produce scenarios at regional and local scales, but since the downscaled models inherit the biases of their parent GCM, they produce a simplified version of local climate. Furthermore, their output is limited to changes in mean temperature, rainfall, and sea level. For this reason, hydrological modeling with GCM output is useful for assessing impacts. The hydrological response due to change in climate variables in the Amu Darya River Basin was investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The modeling results show that there is an increase in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, potential evapotranspiration, surface runoff, percolation, and water yields. The above methodology can be practiced in this region for conducting adaptation and mitigation assessments. This initial assessment will facilitate future simulation modeling applications using SWAT for the Amu Darya River Basin by including variables of local changes (e.g., population growth, deforestation) that directly affect the hydrology of the region.

Climate change will affect tourism at several temporal and spatial levels. This chapter focuses on the quantification of effects and the development of strategies to reduce extremes and frequencies as well as thresholds in tourism areas. Knowledge about possibilities for mitigation and adaptation of current and expected climate conditions requires interdisciplinary approaches and solutions. Several examples are presented, including the effects of trees against climate change and extreme events (heat waves), behavior adaptations, urban and regional planning measures, bioclimatic conditions in the Mediterranean and human–biometeorological conditions under climate change conditions, and user-friendly computer tools for the quantification of urban bioclimate conditions.

Ladakh is an isolated arid environment in the Western Himalayas whose population relies mainly on glacial melt water. If the predicted adverse impacts of climate change occur, rising temperatures would accelerate the retreat of glaciers and place immense stress on the traditional Ladakhi agriculture and way of life. Very few studies in hydrology and glaciology currently document physical processes happening in Ladakh and only one project has combined climate data based upon measurements of temperature and precipitation, collected by the Indian Air Force in Leh town, and perceptions of local communities in order to explore the potential impacts of climate change in the area. This information constitutes the basis for climate change-related interventions of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), both local and international, and could help inform any future climate modeling. However, the quality of this data can be questioned on several points, it terms of accuracy, availability and, most importantly, usefulness. Moreover, this chapter discusses the relevance of this kind of data when the focus is placed upon the adaptation of local communities to global environmental changes where climate change may not be the primary cause. For instance, the region is also currently undergoing a rapid transition from subsistence farming to a market-based economy due to the integration of Ladakh into India and the growing influx of tourism. When addressing the broader context of environmental change, reliable, accurate, and available climate data and models could be useful only if used as part of a holistic approach. This approach requires research and interventions to combine scientific information with local knowledge and perceptions about the impacts of climate change to root the physical data in a “real world” context. It must also acknowledge other drivers of environmental changes such as unsustainable development.

One important element for effective local disaster risk management (DRM) is community participation. However, this is not automatic in Costa Rica. Moreover, communities do not always continue DRM activities after a project or promotional campaign by the government. Indeed, little knowledge exists regarding long-term project sustainability of local DRM activities. Based on this, the present chapter discusses whether and how communities realize long-term DRM activities, an important factor for enhancing local DRM capacity, in a sustainable manner. The study conducts semi-structured interviews in the communities in Cartago City, Costa Rica as a means of evaluation; these are communities where the local DRM project has been implemented for more than ten years.