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Traditionally evaluators of offending behaviour programmes have examined group-level mean change in treatment targets without acknowledging the potential variability of change at an individual level. Clinically significant change, although used widely in the therapy literature generally, has only recently been examined within forensic therapeutic contexts. This chapter provides an overview of key concepts, and the published literature in which clinically significant change has been examined within forensic samples is reviewed. It is concluded that although this technique has the potential to validate programme theory, it is yet to be used to its full potential within a forensic context.

Job Corps is the United State’s largest and most comprehensive training program for disadvantaged youth aged 16–24 years old. A randomized social experiment concluded that, on average, individuals benefited from the program in the form of higher weekly earnings and employment prospects. At the same time, “young adults” (ages 20–24) realized much higher impacts relative to “adolescents” (ages 16–19). Employing recent nonparametric bounds for causal mediation, we investigate whether these two groups’ disparate effects correspond to them benefiting differentially from distinct aspects of Job Corps, with a particular focus on the attainment of a degree (GED, high school, or vocational). We find that, for young adults, the part of the total effect of Job Corps on earnings (employment) that is due to attaining a degree within the program is at most 41% (32%) of the total effect, whereas for adolescents that part can account for up to 87% (100%) of the total effect. We also find evidence that the magnitude of the part of the effect of Job Corps on the outcomes that works through components of Job Corps other than degree attainment (e.g., social skills, job placement, residential services) is likely higher for young adults than for adolescents. That those other components likely play a more important role for young adults has policy implications for more effectively servicing participants. More generally, our results illustrate how researchers can learn about particular mechanisms of an intervention.

What would have been the hypothetical effect of monetary policy shocks had a country never joined the euro area, in cases where we know that the country in question actually did join the euro area? It is one thing to investigate the impact of joining a monetary union, but quite another to examine two things at once: joining the union and experiencing actual monetary policy shocks. The authors propose a methodology that combines synthetic control ideas with the impulse response functions to uncover dynamic response paths for treated and untreated units, controlling for common unobserved factors. Focusing on the largest euro area countries, Germany, France, and Italy, the authors find that an unexpected rise in interest rates depresses inflation and significantly appreciates exchange rate, whereas gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations are less successfully controlled when a country belongs to the monetary union than would have been the case under the independent monetary policy. Importantly, Italy turns out to be the overall beneficiary, since all three channels – price, GDP, and exchange rate – deliver the desired results. The authors also find that stabilizing an economy within a union requires somewhat smaller policy changes than attempting to stabilize it individually, and therefore provides more policy space.

The authors evaluate financial stability and capital flows management objectives of capital controls in the context of four capital control events: removing or imposing controls on capital inflows and removing or imposing controls on capital outflows. The authors use synthetic control method to solve the endogeneity problem stemmed from the timing of capital control implementation. The authors find new evidence that capital controls are not consistently effective in reaching financial stability outcomes but are consistent in reaching capital flows management outcomes. The authors compare our results to estimates using difference-in-difference (DID) and carry out placebo analysis. Finally, we use synthetic DID to correct for the parallel trend bias and show that the results still hold.

The employment impacts of US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) brownfield grant sites are examined. Such sites are eligible for tax incentives which can provide additional funds for cleanup. Using establishment data, employment within close proximity to such sites is found to increase during cleanup periods following grants. The employment increase was from non-brownfield establishments, i.e., a “spillover” effect. These employment effects were concentrated in certain industries. This chapter adds to the literature on brownfield redevelopment which has focused on property values. Beyond being the first empirical chapter to systematically investigate such employment effects, the chapter’s results are important in light of the current US administration’s intent to cut EPA funding.

Many developing and transition countries, and even some in the industrialized West, experience periods in which a substantial proportion of the workforce suffer wage arrears. We examine the implications for estimates of wage gaps and inequality using the Russian labor market as a test case. Wage inequality grew rapidly as did the incidence of wage arrears in Russia in the 1990s. Given data on wages and the incidence of wage arrears we construct counterfactual wage distributions, which give the distribution of pay were arrears not present. The results suggest that wage inequality could be some 30 percent lower in the absence of arrears. If individuals in arrears are distributed across the underlying wage distribution, as appears to be the case in Russia, we show that it may be feasible to use the wage distribution for the subset of those not in arrears to estimate the underlying population wage distribution parameters.

The ability to correctly interpret legal text and reconcile conflicting authorities is an essential skill for students learning to do tax research. As with other complex tasks, these abilities develop more effectively through instruction that focuses on concepts and strategies; contextually relevant and repeated practice; and tailored, explanatory feedback. This chapter describes an innovative, new instructional web resource that incorporates each of these teaching perspectives to help students interpret and reconcile tax law. Scores on in-class exercises suggest that using this tool improves student evaluative skills.

In this chapter, the author argues that Austrians are perhaps uniquely placed to be effective practitioners of causal inference techniques on observational data. This is because, while the methods are easy to implement, their validity and value lies in a detailed, “analytical/historical” narrative to accompany the findings. This is true for several reasons. (1) all the models have identifying assumptions (e.g., no spillovers and parallel trends) that are best addressed by an exposition of the institutional/economic/historical milieu in place before and after the treatment under study; (2) determination of external validity also requires detailed institutional and historical knowledge; and (3) researchers often want to know the mechanisms producing the reduced form result that comes out of most causal inference studies. Here again, institutional and historical learning is crucial. My conclusion is that Austrians should add the tools of causal inference with observational data to their arsenal of analysis. This would be good both for their publication prospects and for the profession at large.

Purpose – This chapter compares the stability of the U.S. Dual Banking system's two bank groups, national and state banks, in light of the current financial crisis. The goal of the chapter is to answer three distinct questions: first, is there a difference in the (balance sheet) fragility between the two groups and, second, to what extent has the balance sheet fragility of both groups changed after the escalation of the financial crisis beginning in August 2007? Building on that, the third question asks to whether or not the respective regulatory agencies of both bank groups are responsible for these changes in balance sheet fragility in light of the financial crisis.

Methodology – To answer these questions the chapter uses U.S. Call Report data containing full quarterly balance sheets and P&Ls of all U.S. commercial banks over the period 2005–2008. Anecdotal evidence as well as univariate and multivariate difference-in-difference methodology focusing on the immediate pre-crisis period Q1/2005–Q3/2007 and the crisis period Q3/2007–Q4/2008 are applied.

Results – Highly significant and robust results show that, ceteris paribus, national banks reduced their potential balance sheet fragility after the escalation of the crisis in August 2007 by reducing lending and liquidity creation stronger than state banks. Anecdotal evidence supports the empirical findings. Although both FDIC and OCC did not anticipate the adverse effects of the crisis, the OCC publicly showed an earlier reaction to liquidity-related problems than the FDIC.

Originality – The chapter is the first of its kind to analyze bank fragility around the escalation of the financial crisis and the role of the regulatory agencies. The chapter holds especially interesting policy implications in the light of the current discussion about the future regulation of the banking markets.

The increasing accumulation of synthetic plastic waste in oceans and landfills, along with the depletion of non-renewable fossil-based resources, has sparked environmental concerns and prompted the search for environmentally friendly alternatives. Biodegradable plastics derived from lignocellulosic materials are emerging as substitutes for synthetic plastics, offering significant potential to reduce landfill stress and minimise environmental impacts. This study highlights a sustainable and cost-effective solution by utilising agricultural residues and invasive plant materials as carbon substrates for the production of biopolymers, particularly polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB), through microbiological processes. Locally sourced residual materials were preferred to reduce transportation costs and ensure accessibility. The selection of suitable residue streams was based on various criteria, including strength properties, cellulose content, low ash and lignin content, affordability, non-toxicity, biocompatibility, shelf-life, mechanical and physical properties, short maturation period, antibacterial properties and compatibility with global food security. Life cycle assessments confirm that PHB dramatically lowers CO₂ emissions compared to traditional plastics, while the growing use of lignocellulosic biomass in biopolymeric applications offers renewable and readily available resources. Governments worldwide are increasingly inclined to develop comprehensive bioeconomy policies and specialised bioplastics initiatives, driven by customer acceptability and the rising demand for environmentally friendly solutions. The implications of climate change, price volatility in fossil materials, and the imperative to reduce dependence on fossil resources further contribute to the desirability of biopolymers. The study involves fermentation, turbidity measurements, extraction and purification of PHB, and the manufacturing and testing of composite biopolymers using various physical, mechanical and chemical tests.