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Article
Publication date: 10 November 2023

Yonghong Zhang, Shouwei Li, Jingwei Li and Xiaoyu Tang

This paper aims to develop a novel grey Bernoulli model with memory characteristics, which is designed to dynamically choose the optimal memory kernel function and the length of…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to develop a novel grey Bernoulli model with memory characteristics, which is designed to dynamically choose the optimal memory kernel function and the length of memory dependence period, ultimately enhancing the model's predictive accuracy.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper enhances the traditional grey Bernoulli model by introducing memory-dependent derivatives, resulting in a novel memory-dependent derivative grey model. Additionally, fractional-order accumulation is employed for preprocessing the original data. The length of the memory dependence period for memory-dependent derivatives is determined through grey correlation analysis. Furthermore, the whale optimization algorithm is utilized to optimize the cumulative order, power index and memory kernel function index of the model, enabling adaptability to diverse scenarios.

Findings

The selection of appropriate memory kernel functions and memory dependency lengths will improve model prediction performance. The model can adaptively select the memory kernel function and memory dependence length, and the performance of the model is better than other comparison models.

Research limitations/implications

The model presented in this article has some limitations. The grey model is itself suitable for small sample data, and memory-dependent derivatives mainly consider the memory effect on a fixed length. Therefore, this model is mainly applicable to data prediction with short-term memory effect and has certain limitations on time series of long-term memory.

Practical implications

In practical systems, memory effects typically exhibit a decaying pattern, which is effectively characterized by the memory kernel function. The model in this study skillfully determines the appropriate kernel functions and memory dependency lengths to capture these memory effects, enhancing its alignment with real-world scenarios.

Originality/value

Based on the memory-dependent derivative method, a memory-dependent derivative grey Bernoulli model that more accurately reflects the actual memory effect is constructed and applied to power generation forecasting in China, South Korea and India.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 December 2023

Li Zhang and Xican Li

Aim to the limitations of grey relational analysis of interval grey number, based on the generalized greyness of interval grey number, this paper tries to construct a grey angle…

Abstract

Purpose

Aim to the limitations of grey relational analysis of interval grey number, based on the generalized greyness of interval grey number, this paper tries to construct a grey angle cosine relational degree model from the perspective of proximity and similarity.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, the algorithms of the generalized greyness of interval grey number and interval grey number vector are given, and its properties are analyzed. Then, based on the grey relational theory, the grey angle cosine relational model is proposed based on the generalized greyness of interval grey number, and the relationship between the classical cosine similarity model and the grey angle cosine relational model is analyzed. Finally, the validity of the model in this paper is illustrated by the calculation examples and an application example of related factor analysis of maize yield.

Findings

The results show that the grey angle cosine relational degree model has strict theoretical basis, convenient calculation and is easy to program, which can not only fully utilize the information of interval grey numbers but also overcome the shortcomings of greyness relational degree model. The grey angle cosine relational degree is an extended form of cosine similarity degree of real numbers. The calculation examples and the related factor analysis of maize yield show that the model proposed in this paper is feasible and valid.

Practical implications

The research results not only further enrich the grey system theory and method but also provide a basis for the grey relational analysis of the sequences in which the interval grey numbers coexist with the real numbers.

Originality/value

The paper succeeds in realizing the algorithms of the generalized greyness of interval grey number and interval grey number vector, and the grey angle cosine relational degree, which provide a new method for grey relational analysis.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 February 2024

Chao Xia, Bo Zeng and Yingjie Yang

Traditional multivariable grey prediction models define the background-value coefficients of the dependent and independent variables uniformly, ignoring the differences between…

Abstract

Purpose

Traditional multivariable grey prediction models define the background-value coefficients of the dependent and independent variables uniformly, ignoring the differences between their physical properties, which in turn affects the stability and reliability of the model performance.

Design/methodology/approach

A novel multivariable grey prediction model is constructed with different background-value coefficients of the dependent and independent variables, and a one-to-one correspondence between the variables and the background-value coefficients to improve the smoothing effect of the background-value coefficients on the sequences. Furthermore, the fractional order accumulating operator is introduced to the new model weaken the randomness of the raw sequence. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to optimize the background-value coefficients and the order of the model to improve model performance.

Findings

The new model structure has good variability and compatibility, which can achieve compatibility with current mainstream grey prediction models. The performance of the new model is compared and analyzed with three typical cases, and the results show that the new model outperforms the other two similar grey prediction models.

Originality/value

This study has positive implications for enriching the method system of multivariable grey prediction model.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 January 2024

Sifeng Liu, Ningning Lu, Zhongju Shang and R.M. Kapila Tharanga Rathnayaka

The purpose of this paper is to explore a new approach to solve the problem of positive and negative offset in the calculation process of integral elements, then propose a series…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore a new approach to solve the problem of positive and negative offset in the calculation process of integral elements, then propose a series of new grey relational degree model for cross sequences.

Design/methodology/approach

The definitions of cross sequences and area elements have been proposed at first. Then the concept of difference degree between sequences has been put forward. Based on the definition of difference degree between sequences, various modified grey relational degree models for cross sequences have been proposed to solve the measurement problem of cross sequence correlation relationships.

Findings

(1) The new definition of cross sequences; (2) The area element; (3) Various modified grey relational degree models for cross sequences based on the definition of difference degree between sequences.

Practical implications

The grey relational analysis model of cross sequences is a difficult problem in grey relational analysis. The new model proposed in this article can effectively avoid the calculation deviation of grey relational analysis model for cross sequences, and reasonably measure the correlation between cross sequences. The new model was used to analyse the food consumer price index in Shaanxi Province, clarifying the relationship between different types of food consumer price indices, some interesting results that are not completely consistent with general economic theory were obtained.

Originality/value

The new definition of cross sequences, the area element and various modified grey relational degree models for cross sequences were proposed.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 December 2023

Marcin Nowak, Marta Pawłowska-Nowak, Małgorzata Kokocińska and Piotr Kułyk

With the use of the grey incidence analysis (GIA), indicators such as the absolute degree of grey incidence (εij), relative degree of grey incidence (rij) or synthetic degree of…

260

Abstract

Purpose

With the use of the grey incidence analysis (GIA), indicators such as the absolute degree of grey incidence (εij), relative degree of grey incidence (rij) or synthetic degree of grey incidence (ρij) are calculated. However, it seems that some assumptions made to calculate them are arguable, which may also have a material impact on the reliability of test results. In this paper, the authors analyse one of the indicators of the GIA, namely the relative degree of grey incidence. The aim of the article was to verify the hypothesis: in determining the relative degree of grey incidence, the method of standardisation of elements in a series significantly affects the test results.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve the purpose of the article, the authors used the numerical simulation method and the logical analysis method (in order to draw conclusions from our tests).

Findings

It turned out that the applied method of standardising elements in series when calculating the relative degree of grey incidence significantly affects the test results. Moreover, the manner of standardisation used in the original method (which involves dividing all elements by the first element) is not the best. Much more reliable results are obtained by a standardisation that involves dividing all elements by their arithmetic mean.

Research limitations/implications

Limitations of the conducted evaluation involve in particular the limited scope of inference. This is since the obtained results referred to only one of the indicators classified into the GIA.

Originality/value

In this article, the authors have evaluated the model of GIA in which the relative degree of grey incidence is determined. As a result of the research, the authors have proposed a recommendation regarding a change in the method of standardising variables, which will contribute to obtaining more reliable results in relational tests using the grey system theory.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 October 2023

Jie Yang, Manman Zhang, Linjian Shangguan and Jinfa Shi

The possibility function-based grey clustering model has evolved into a complete approach for dealing with uncertainty evaluation problems. Existing models still have problems…

Abstract

Purpose

The possibility function-based grey clustering model has evolved into a complete approach for dealing with uncertainty evaluation problems. Existing models still have problems with the choice dilemma of the maximum criteria and instances when the possibility function may not accurately capture the data's randomness. This study aims to propose a multi-stage skewed grey cloud clustering model that blends grey and randomness to overcome these problems.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the skewed grey cloud possibility (SGCP) function is defined, and its digital characteristics demonstrate that a normal cloud is a particular instance of a skewed cloud. Second, the border of the decision paradox of the maximum criterion is established. Third, using the skewed grey cloud kernel weight (SGCKW) transformation as a tool, the multi-stage skewed grey cloud clustering coefficient (SGCCC) vector is calculated and research items are clustered according to this multi-stage SGCCC vector with overall features. Finally, the multi-stage skewed grey cloud clustering model's solution steps are then provided.

Findings

The results of applying the model to the assessment of college students' capacity for innovation and entrepreneurship revealed that, in comparison to the traditional grey clustering model and the two-stage grey cloud clustering evaluation model, the proposed model's clustering results have higher identification and stability, which partially resolves the decision paradox of the maximum criterion.

Originality/value

Compared with current models, the proposed model in this study can dynamically depict the clustering process through multi-stage clustering, ensuring the stability and integrity of the clustering results and advancing grey system theory.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 April 2024

Yong Liu, Xue-ge Guo, Qin Jiang and Jing-yi Zhang

We attempt to construct a grey three-way conflict analysis model with constraints to deal with correlated conflict problems with uncertain information.

Abstract

Purpose

We attempt to construct a grey three-way conflict analysis model with constraints to deal with correlated conflict problems with uncertain information.

Design/methodology/approach

In order to address these correlated conflict problems with uncertain information, considering the interactive influence and mutual restraints among agents and portraying their attitudes toward the conflict issues, we utilize grey numbers and three-way decisions to propose a grey three-way conflict analysis model with constraints. Firstly, based on the collected information, we introduced grey theory, calculated the degree of conflict between agents and then analyzed the conflict alliance based on the three-way decision theory. Finally, we designed a feedback mechanism to identify key agents and key conflict issues. A case verifies the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed model.

Findings

The results show that the proposed model can portray their attitudes toward conflict issues and effectively extract conflict-related information.

Originality/value

By employing this approach, we can provide the answers to Deja’s fundamental questions regarding Pawlak’s conflict analysis: “what are the underlying causes of conflict?” and “how can a viable consensus strategy be identified?”

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 February 2023

Ahmad Hariri, Pedro Domingues and Paulo Sampaio

This paper aims to classify journal papers in the context of hybrid quality function deployment QFD and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods published during 2004–2021.

2010

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to classify journal papers in the context of hybrid quality function deployment QFD and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods published during 2004–2021.

Design/methodology/approach

A conceptual classification scheme is presented to analyze the hybrid QFD-MCDM methods. Then some recommendations are given to introduce directions for future research.

Findings

The results show that among all related areas, the manufacturing application has the most frequency of published papers regarding hybrid QFD-MCDM methods. Moreover, using uncertainty to establish a hybrid QFD-MCDM the relevant papers have been considered during the time interval 2004–2021.

Originality/value

There are various shortcomings in conventional QFD which limit its efficiency and potential applications. Since 2004, when MCDM methods were frequently adopted in the quality management context, increasing attention has been drawn from both practical and academic perspectives. Recently, the integration of MCDM techniques into the QFD model has played an important role in designing new products and services, supplier selection, green manufacturing systems and sustainability topics. Hence, this survey reviewed hybrid QFD-MCDM methods during 2004–2021.

Details

International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, vol. 40 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-671X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 September 2023

Tooraj Karimi and Mohamad Ahmadian

Competition in the banking sector is more complex than in the past, and survival has become more difficult than before. The purpose of this paper is to propose a grey methodology…

Abstract

Purpose

Competition in the banking sector is more complex than in the past, and survival has become more difficult than before. The purpose of this paper is to propose a grey methodology for evaluating, clustering and ranking the performance of bank branches with imprecise and uncertain data in order to determine the relative status of each branch.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, the two-stage data envelopment analysis model with grey data is applied to assess the efficiency of bank branches in terms of operations. The result of grey two-stage data envelopment analysis model is a grey number as efficiency value of each branch. In the following, the branches are classified into three grey categories of performance by grey clustering method, and the complete grey ranking of branches are performed using “minimax regret-based approach” and “whitening value rating”.

Findings

The results show that after grey clustering of 22 branches based on grey efficiency value obtained from the grey two-stage DEA model, 6 branches are assigned to “excellent” class, 4 branches to “good” class and 12 branches to “poor” class. Moreover, the results of MRA and whitening value rating models are integrated, and a complete ranking of 22 branches are presented.

Practical implications

Grey clustering of branches based on grey efficiency value can facilitate planning and policy-making for branches so that there is no need to plan separately for each branch. The grey ranking helps the branches find their current position compared to other branches, and the results can be a dashboard to find the best practices for benchmarking.

Originality/value

Compared with traditional DEA methods which use deterministic data and consider decision-making units as black boxes, in this research, a grey two-stage DEA model is proposed to evaluate the efficiency of bank branches. Furthermore, grey clustering and grey ranking of efficiency values are used as a novel solution for improving the accuracy of grey two-stage DEA results.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 January 2024

Wenhao Zhou, Hailin Li, Hufeng Li, Liping Zhang and Weibin Lin

Given the regional heterogeneity of economic development, electricity consumption in various regions exhibits a discrepant growth pattern. The purpose of this study is to…

Abstract

Purpose

Given the regional heterogeneity of economic development, electricity consumption in various regions exhibits a discrepant growth pattern. The purpose of this study is to construct a grey system forecasting model with intelligent parameters for predicting provincial electricity consumption in China.

Design/methodology/approach

First, parameter optimization and structural expansion are simultaneously integrated into a unified grey system prediction framework, enhancing its adaptive capabilities. Second, by setting the minimum simulation percentage error as the optimization goal, the authors apply the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to search for the optimal grey generation order and background value coefficient. Third, to assess the performance across diverse power consumption systems, the authors use two electricity consumption cases and select eight other benchmark models to analyze the simulation and prediction errors. Further, the authors conduct simulations and trend predictions using data from all 31 provinces in China, analyzing and predicting the development trends in electricity consumption for each province from 2021 to 2026.

Findings

The study identifies significant heterogeneity in the development trends of electricity consumption systems among diverse provinces in China. The grey prediction model, optimized with multiple intelligent parameters, demonstrates superior adaptability and dynamic adjustment capabilities compared to traditional fixed-parameter models. Outperforming benchmark models across various evaluation indicators such as root mean square error (RMSE), average percentage error and Theil’s index, the new model establishes its robustness in predicting electricity system behavior.

Originality/value

Acknowledging the limitations of traditional grey prediction models in capturing diverse growth patterns under fixed-generation orders, single structures and unadjustable background values, this study proposes a fractional grey intelligent prediction model with multiple parameter optimization. By incorporating multiple parameter optimizations and structure expansion, it substantiates the model’s superiority in forecasting provincial electricity consumption.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

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