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Article
Publication date: 4 November 2014

Gregory Koutmos

The literature on positive feedback trading has grown considerably in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the theoretical and empirical…

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Abstract

Purpose

The literature on positive feedback trading has grown considerably in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the theoretical and empirical literature on positive feedback trading and especially the literature related to the Sentana and Wadhwani (1992) model.

Design/methodology/approach

This literature review covers theoretical and empirical work in this area and it points out shortcomings and potential extensions of the basic feedback model.

Findings

The evidence so far points in the direction of positive feedback trading being present in aggregate stock market indices, index futures, bond markets, foreign exchange markets and individual stocks. There are some important issues that require further investigation. For example, it is likely that feedback trading is a function of longer lags of past return. Likewise, asymmetric behavior during up and down markets appears to be the rule rather than the exception. More importantly, the models should allow for positive as well as negative feedback and be general enough to investigate feedback trading behavior in individual assets and not just the aggregate market.

Research limitations/implications

The discussion points out theoretical and empirical limitations and shortcomings of the extant literature.

Originality/value

This is the first paper to review positive feedback trading, implications, limitations and need for future research.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 6 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 June 2022

Esra Alp Coşkun

Although some research has been carried out on feedback trading in different asset classes, there have been few empirical investigations that consider both major and…

Abstract

Purpose

Although some research has been carried out on feedback trading in different asset classes, there have been few empirical investigations that consider both major and emerging stock markets (Koutmos, 1997; Antoniou et al., 2005; Kim, 2009) stock index futures (Salm and Schuppli, 2010). In this study, the author examines positive/negative feedback trading in both developed-emerging-frontier-standalone (51) stock markets for 2010–2020 and sub-periods including COVID-19 period.

Design/methodology/approach

The hypothesis “feedback trading behaviour led the price boom/bust in the stock markets during the first quarter of COVID-19 pandemic” is tested by employing the Sentana and Wadhwani (1992) framework and using asymmetrical GARCH models (GJRGARCH, EGARCH) in accordance with the empirical literature.

Findings

The following conclusions can be drawn from the present study; (1) There is no evidence to support a significant distinction between developed, emerging, frontier or standalone markets or high/upper middle, lower middle income economies in the case of feedback trading. It is more likely to be a general phenomenon reflecting the outcomes of general human psychology (2) in the long term (2010–2020) based on the feedback trading results Asian stock markets appear to be far from efficiency.

Research limitations/implications

Stock markets are selected based on data availability.

Practical implications

Several inferences can be drawn about overall results. First, investors and portfolio managers should beware of their investment decisions during bearish market conditions where volatility is on the rise and also when there is a strong reaction to bad news/negative shocks in the market. Moreover, investing in Asia stock markets may require more attention since those markets are reputed to be more “idiosyncratic”, less reliant on economic and corporate fundamentals in their pricing. Moreover, the impact of foreign investors on stock market volatility and returns and weaker implementation of regulations also affect the efficiency of the markets (Lipinsky and Ong, 2014).

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, most studies in the field of feedback trading in stock markets have only focused on a small sample of countries and second, the effect of COVID-19 uncertainty on the stock markets have not been addressed in the literature with respect to feedback trading. This paper fills these literature gaps. This study is expected to provide useful insights for understanding the instabilities in stock markets particularly under conditions of high uncertainty and to fill the gap in the literature by comparing the results for a large sample of countries both in the long term and in the pandemic.

Highlights for review

  1. This study has shown that feedback trading is more prevalent in Asian stock markets in the long run in Europe, America or Middle East for the period 2010–2020.

  2. Positive feedback traders generally dominated most of the stock markets during the early period of COVID-19 pandemic.

  3. Another major finding was that the stock markets in Malaysia, Japan, the Philippines, Estonia, Portugal and Ukraine are dominated by negative feedback traders which may be interpreted as “disposition effect” meaning that they sell the “past winners”.

  4. In Indonesia, New Zealand, China, Austria, Greece, UK, Finland, Spain, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Poland, Turkey, Chile and Argentina neither positive nor negative feedback trading exists even under uncertain conditions.

This study has shown that feedback trading is more prevalent in Asian stock markets in the long run in Europe, America or Middle East for the period 2010–2020.

Positive feedback traders generally dominated most of the stock markets during the early period of COVID-19 pandemic.

Another major finding was that the stock markets in Malaysia, Japan, the Philippines, Estonia, Portugal and Ukraine are dominated by negative feedback traders which may be interpreted as “disposition effect” meaning that they sell the “past winners”.

In Indonesia, New Zealand, China, Austria, Greece, UK, Finland, Spain, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Poland, Turkey, Chile and Argentina neither positive nor negative feedback trading exists even under uncertain conditions.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 February 2022

Fotini Economou, Konstantinos Gavriilidis, Bartosz Gebka and Vasileios Kallinterakis

The purpose of this paper is to comprehensively review a large and heterogeneous body of academic literature on investors' feedback trading, one of the most popular trading

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to comprehensively review a large and heterogeneous body of academic literature on investors' feedback trading, one of the most popular trading patterns observed historically in financial markets. Specifically, the authors aim to synthesize the diverse theoretical approaches to feedback trading in order to provide a detailed discussion of its various determinants, and to systematically review the empirical literature across various asset classes to gauge whether their feedback trading entails discernible patterns and the determinants that motivate them.

Design/methodology/approach

Given the high degree of heterogeneity of both theoretical and empirical approaches, the authors adopt a semi-systematic type of approach to review the feedback trading literature, inspired by the RAMESES protocol for meta-narrative reviews. The final sample consists of 243 papers covering diverse asset classes, investor types and geographies.

Findings

The authors find feedback trading to be very widely observed over time and across markets internationally. Institutional investors engage in feedback trading in a herd-like manner, and most noticeably in small domestic stocks and emerging markets. Regulatory changes and financial crises affect the intensity of their feedback trades. Retail investors are mostly contrarian and underperform their institutional counterparts, while the latter's trades can be often motivated by market sentiment.

Originality/value

The authors provide a detailed overview of various possible theoretical determinants, both behavioural and non-behavioural, of feedback trading, as well as a comprehensive overview and synthesis of the empirical literature. The authors also propose a series of possible directions for future research.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 September 2011

Antonios Antoniou, Gregory Koutmos and Gioia Pescetto

This paper investigates the possibility that futures markets attract noise traders who engage in positive feedback trading, an especially destabilizing form of noise…

Abstract

This paper investigates the possibility that futures markets attract noise traders who engage in positive feedback trading, an especially destabilizing form of noise trading. The hypothesis is tested using data from four major national index futures markets. The empirical evidence is consistent across all index futures markets under examination. Specifically, there is significant evidence of positive feedback trading. More importantly, the feedback trading pattern exhibits significant long memory in the sense that it depends on longer lags of past prices. Because volatility is asymmetric, the implication is that feedback trading is also asymmetric, being more prevalent during down markets so that mispricing is more likely during those periods that feedback traders are more active.

Details

Review of Behavioural Finance, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 January 2011

Yin Hong

The purpose of this paper is to research and analyze the influence of institutional investors in the present securities market due to behavior alienation with “running…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to research and analyze the influence of institutional investors in the present securities market due to behavior alienation with “running after rising and falling” and “herd behavior”.

Design/methodology/approach

A DeLong, Shleifer, Summers, and Waldmann (DSSW) model with positive feedback trading is established first to show the trading process, and these securities prices are calculated considering the investors' emotion. Through numerical analysis, the influence of institutional investors on securities price fluctuation is simulated. Further, the analysis of institutional investors' incomes is processed based on this model.

Findings

Through these analyses, the following conclusions are drawn: it lies on the scale of positive feedback traders and their sensitivity to past market performances whether the institutional investors can stabilize the market, and it is not necessary for the institutional investors to benefit from manipulating the market due to the existence of noise trader risk, so the positive feedback traders may survive in the security market over the long term.

Originality/value

The DSSW model considering positive feedback trading, presented in the paper, is more effective in analyzing the relation among the behavior of institutional investors, securities pricing and securities price fluctuation. The paper proposes some advice for policy decisions, which is helpful for government and institutions to maintain the stability of securities markets.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 1 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 27 September 2011

Mangesh Tayde and S.V.D. Nageswara Rao

Purpose – The aggregate investment by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in the Indian stock market is significant compared to that by domestic institutions and…

Abstract

Purpose – The aggregate investment by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in the Indian stock market is significant compared to that by domestic institutions and individual (retail) investors. The question of whether FIIs exhibit herding and positive feedback trading while investing in the Indian stock markets has not been examined so far. This study is an attempt to fill the gap and contribute to the existing evidence on foreign portfolio investment in India.

Methodology/approach – We have analyzed the daily data on purchases and sales of securities by FIIs sourced from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). We have adopted the approach of Lakonishok et al. (1992), and Wermers (1999) to examine herding and positive feedback trading by foreign investors.

Findings – Our results suggest that FIIs exhibit herding and positive feedback trading during different phases of the stock market. This observed behavior is prominent in but not restricted to large cap stocks as they enjoy better liquidity.

Social implication – The herding and positive feedback trading by FIIs is a cause for concern for government of India, capital market regulator (SEBI), and the country's central bank (RBI) as it adversely affects stock prices and volatility. They are required to formulate and implement a suitable policy response given their objective of protecting the interests of small investors in the market. They may also have to monitor the purchases and sales of equities by FIIs in general and of better performing large cap stocks in particular.

Article
Publication date: 23 March 2020

Jing Chen and David G. McMillan

This study aims to examine the relation between illiquidity, feedback trading and stock returns for several European markets, using panel regression methods, during the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the relation between illiquidity, feedback trading and stock returns for several European markets, using panel regression methods, during the financial and the sovereign debt crises. The authors’ interest here lies twofold. First, the authors seek to compare the results obtained here under crisis conditions with those in the existing literature. Second, and of greater importance, the authors wish to examine the interaction between liquidity and feedback trading and their effect on stock returns.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors jointly model both feedback trading and illiquidity, which are typically considered in isolation. The authors use panel estimation methods to examine the relations across the European markets as a whole.

Findings

The key results suggest that in common with the literature, illiquidity has a negative impact upon contemporaneous stock returns, while supportive evidence of positive feedback trading is reported. However, in contrast to the existing literature, lagged illiquidity is not a priced risk, while negative shocks do not lead to greater feedback trading behaviour. Regarding the interaction between illiquidity and feedback trading, the study results support the view that greater illiquidity is associated with stronger positive feedback.

Originality/value

The study results suggest that when price changes are more observable, due to low liquidity, then feedback trading increases. Therefore, during the crisis periods that afflicted European markets, the lower levels of liquidity prevalent led to an increase in feedback trading. Thus, negative liquidity shocks that led to a fall in stock prices were exacerbated by feedback trading.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 May 2018

Dimitrios Kyrkilis, Athanasios Koulakiotis, Vassilios Babalos and Maria Kyriakou

The purpose of this paper is to examine the hypothesis of feedback trading along with the short-term return dynamics of three size-based stock portfolios of Athens Stock…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the hypothesis of feedback trading along with the short-term return dynamics of three size-based stock portfolios of Athens Stock Exchange during the Greek debt crisis period.

Design/methodology/approach

To this end, the authors employ for the first time in the literature two well-known models while the variance equation is modeled by means of a multivariate EGARCH specification. As a robustness test an innovative nested-EGARCH model is also employed.

Findings

The assumption that positive feedback trading is an important component of the short-term return movements across the three stock portfolios receives significant support. Moreover, the volatility interdependence, both in magnitude and sign, is almost similar across the three models. Finally, bad news originating from the portfolio of small stock appears to have a higher impact on the volatility of large and medium size stock returns than good news during the Greek debt crisis period.

Originality/value

The methodology is innovative and the authors test for the first time the feedback trading hypothesis across different size stocks. The authors believe that the results might entail significant policy implications for investors and market regulators.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 14 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 May 2017

Shah Saeed Hassan Chowdhury, M. Arifur Rahman and M. Shibley Sadique

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate autocorrelation structure of stock and portfolio returns in a unique market setting of Saudi Arabia, where nearly all…

Abstract

Purpose

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate autocorrelation structure of stock and portfolio returns in a unique market setting of Saudi Arabia, where nearly all active traders are the retail individuals and the market operates under severe limits to arbitrage. Specifically, the authors examine how return autocorrelation of Saudi Arabian stock market is related to factors such as the day of the week, stock trading, performance on the preceding day and volatility.

Design/methodology/approach

The sample consists of the daily stock price and index data of 159 firms listed in Tadawul (Saudi Arabian Stock Exchange) for the period from January 2004 through December 2015. The methodology of Safvenblad (2000) is primarily used to investigate the autocorrelation structure of individual stock and index returns. The authors also use the Sentana and Wadhwani (1992) methodology to test for the presence of feedback traders in the Saudi stock market.

Findings

Results show that there is significantly positive autocorrelation in individual stock, size portfolio and market returns and that the last two are almost always larger than the first. Return autocorrelation is negatively related to firm size. Interestingly, return autocorrelation is positively related to trading frequency. For portfolios, autocorrelation of returns following a high absolute return day is significantly higher than that following a low absolute return day. Similarly, return autocorrelation during volatile periods is generally larger than that during tranquil periods. Return correlation between weekdays is usually larger than that between the first and last days of the week. Overall, the results suggest that the possible reason for positive autocorrelation in stock returns could be the presence of negative feedback traders who are engaged in frequent profit-taking activities.

Originality/value

This is the first paper that thoroughly investigates the autocorrelation structure of the returns of the Saudi stock market using both index and individual stock returns. As this US$583bn (as of August 21, 2014) market opened to foreign institutional investors in June 2015, the results of this paper should be of significant value for the potential uninformed foreign investors in this relatively lesser known and previously closed yet highly prospective market.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 March 2008

Rhea Tingyu Zhou and Rose Neng Lai

Motivated by the unique characteristics and profit generating nature of real estate investments, this paper aims to study if investors herd differently in corresponding…

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Abstract

Purpose

Motivated by the unique characteristics and profit generating nature of real estate investments, this paper aims to study if investors herd differently in corresponding securities versus other non‐real estate securities.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors choose the Hong Kong stock market to form the sample to distinguish the herd behavior of the property stocks, if any, from stocks of other categories. The authors separate stocks into two portfolios, those made up of property stocks versus non‐property stocks, because it is widely known that property stocks have high market volatility and domination of institutional investors.

Findings

The authors find a persistent and significant smaller herding in property stocks. The result of a reverse U‐shape intraday herding pattern also provides a possible clue to previous studies of a U‐shape in intraday volatility pattern. The authors document that recent announcements of an increase in the short‐term interest rate have an additive effect on the herd behavior of market participants in trading property stocks. Lastly, on the conjecture that herding will further exemplify price instability arising from positive feedback trading while investors engage in positive feedback trading in both property stocks and non‐property stocks, such activity in the latter group lasts for a longer period. Furthermore, price instability of property stocks disappears at a faster pace than the counterpart.

Originality/value

This study shows that property stocks are more efficiently traded by investors than other types of stocks, at least in the Hong Kong stock market.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 26 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

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