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Briefly reviews the standard Poisson distribution and then examines a set of derivative, modified Poisson distributions for testing hypotheses derived from positive deviation‐amplifying feedback models, which do not lend themselves to ordinary statistically based hypothesis testing. The “reinforcement” or “contagious” Poisson offers promise for a subset of such models, in particular those models with data in the form of rates (rather than magnitudes). The practical difficulty lies in distinguishing reinforcement effects from initial heterogeneity, since both can form negative binomial distributions, with look‐alike data. Illustrates these difficulties, and also opportunities, for various feedback models employing the self‐fulfilling prophecy, and especially for confidence loops, which incorporate particular self‐fulfilling prophecies as part of a larger dynamic process. Describes an actual methodology for testing hypotheses regarding confidence loops with the aid of a “reinforcement” Poisson distribution, as well as its place within sociocybernetics.

Human societies can be conceptualized as natural systems satisfying four basic system criteria: Ordered wholeness; negative feedback deviation‐reducing capability; positive feedback deviation‐amplifying, self‐evolving capacity; and dual‐structural adaptation to sub‐ as well as suprasystems. While societies are obviously governable in stable, relatively organized situations, whether in totalitarian or fully participatory ways, it is concluded they are also governable during “crucial epochs” that are characterized by unstable, provisionally disorganized and unpredictable states—although different modes of governance prevail during these periods of rapid self‐evolution, when control is exercised by rapidly shifting and selectively amplifying peripheral movements. Analysis of the forms of transition governance during crucial epochs in self‐evolving social systems is important for suppressing totalitarian trends and consciously amplifying humanistic peripheral movements.

The purpose of this article is to define a framework for projecting future leading-edge alpha societies based on the principle of requisite variety. Alpha societies are advanced as a platform for creating future forms of work and workforce preparation premised on continuous creativity, invention, design and innovation.

The principle of requisite variety is presented as the basis for a structured schema that incorporates trends and developments in anticipatory behaviors, systems thinking, creativity, design and innovation to produce a strategy for continuous leading-edge learning and performance.

Growing global hypercompetition requires real-time ability to create and deliver world-class ideas and value-adding products and services in the shortest possible timeframes. This challenge requires societies, enterprises and individuals that are capable of continuously expanding and expressing their internal variety and complexity while rapidly decreasing the gaps between learning and doing.

The principle of requisite variety has been well known to cybernetics and systems communities since 1956. However, literature linking the principle of requisite variety to the future of learning and work is not well developed.

This article establishes requisite variety generation as a valuable resource for twenty-first century societies and economies engaged in producing leading-edge outcomes.

The requisite variety framework developed in this article is intended to enhance the ability of leading-edge societies to continuously leapfrog existing educational, social and economic trajectories.

The author defines the future of education and work in terms of enhancing individual, enterprise and societal abilities to absorb, generate and exploit variety, complexity and ambiguity.

Addresses the lack of success in educational reform efforts by utilizing a metacognitive analysis of the base assumption of most, if not all, current reform efforts. Suggests a different theoretical orientation and perspective for understanding education and attempts to improve it. By contrasting the common orientation of today and the one proposed, the paper applies this new perspective to two examples. Examines educational reform in light of the orientation proposed.

Organizational researchers live in two worlds. The first demands and rewards speculations about how to improve performance. The second demands and rewards adherence to rigorous standards of scholarship (March & Sutton, 1997, p. 698).Those of us who study organizations and are professors of management work on the front lines, so to speak, where the beliefs we have about how to improve managerial performance get passed directly on to practitioners. The question is, What right do we have to put our beliefs in a privileged position? Beliefs, by definition, are supposed to be true. According to Webster’s (1996) a belief is a conviction about the truth of some statement and/or reality of some phenomenon, especially when based on examination of evidence. Are all of our lectures based on consensually agreed upon evidentiary standards? What are these standards and who should maintain them?

In studying the relationship between Cybernetics and Social Science, theories and research in Sociocyber‐netics are examined. The focus is on researchers who apply Cybernetics to the study of society and its social systems and processes. References are backed by a new 300‐item bibliography of the relevant system literature, compiled for the article.

The administrative state is situated in a physical and ecological context that requires a conceptualisation of rationality broader than the instrumental rationality that characterizes most administrative theorising. Various scholars have contributed to clarifying some aspects of the needed broader conceptualisation, particularly with respect to focuses (system, substance, procedure) and form (social, legal, political, and ecological). But unlike the classical Aristotelian conception of rationality, the goal‐blindness of contemporary rationality still distinguishes it from reasonableness. Rawls and Habermas suggest the recoupling of reasonableness and rationality through political discourse and pursuit of social action that requires reasoning about ends as well as means. The opportunities for deliberative democracy and for furthering environmental justice provided by environmental impact assessment illustrate how rationality, justice, and ecological sustainability can be integrated by breaking down distinctions between decision‐making processes and the substance of decisions. Administration can thus move beyond proverbs to proceed on the realization that the only ecologically rational organization is a broadly reasonable one.

Business realities include delays, unintended downstream consequences, exponential versus linear relationships, “hidden demons,” and virtuous and viscous feedback cycles. Executives often respond to these realities by applying nearsighted short-term solutions that contribute to long-run business failure. We provide core propositions and a framework for causal mapping and testing “micro-worlds” of real-life marketing-buying realities. A microworld is a set of explicit assumptions about how things get done, that is, how each variable in a marketing-buying system relates to other variables in the system. The framework suggests applying eight steps linking systems-thinking cause mapping, policy mapping, and systems dynamics modeling. The chapter reviews case research studies that apply the eight steps. Modeling system dynamics of business relationships aims to run simulations of the resulting microworld model of a specific reality; the main aim goes beyond description and explanation to offer prescriptions that reduce the occurrence of viscous cycles and encourage decisions leading to virtuous cycles. Hopefully, this chapter serves to awareness and use of system dynamics tools among case study researchers and executives in business and industrial marketing.

This article sets out to describe the benefits of systems thinking in overcoming short‐sighted decision making in business and industrial marketing.

The article illustrates specific tools and recent applications of systems thinking research.

The basic building‐blocks for creating microworlds are the claims made by stakeholders running and affected by real‐life systems.

Suggestions for future research includes transforming research designs from linear one‐way models to models expressly recognizing time delays, feedback loops among variables, and seemingly hidden, unimportant relationships.

All business exchanges involve systems and there is more complexity than is readily apparent; systems thinking helps decision makers to deeply understand what is really happening.

This article advises replacing the one‐direction thinking and research paradigm that dominates business and industrial marketing with systems thinking and system dynamics modeling; the article identifies examples and the literature necessary to embrace this alternative paradigm.

Chapter 16 is an introduction to systems thinking and analyzing the system dynamics of relationships within an organization or between organizations. Systems thinking builds on the propositions that (1) all variables or conditions have both dependent and independent relationships, (2) lag effects occur in relationships, (3) feedback relationships occur (e.g., A→B→C→A), and (4) seemingly minor relationships (i.e., “hidden demons”) have huge influence in causing a set of relationships (i.e., a system) to implode or explode. The propositions of building and testing a set of relationships apply in many contexts; this chapter examines systems thinking and system dynamics in one context as an introduction to this stream of case study research. Hall (1976) provides details of an advanced application of systems dynamics research – do not be fooled by the date of the study; Hall (1976) is an exceptional up-to-date case research study using system dynamics modeling. This chapter describes the issues and criticisms concerning golf, tourism, and the environment and considers how golf–tourism–environment relationships might achieve economic well-being for a region while avoiding vicious cycles of destruction to local environments and the quality of life of local residents. The examination proposes the use of systems thinking, cause mapping, and system dynamics modeling and simulations of golf, tourism, and environmental relationships to help achieve workable solutions agreeable to all stakeholders. Sustainable relationships that include golf, tourism, and environmental objectives require crafting government policies via stakeholder participation of all parties that such relationships affect – recognizing and enabling this requirement needs to be done explicitly – to reduce conflicts among stakeholders and avoid system failures.