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Article
Publication date: 18 September 2018

Shixiong Wang and Yu Song

The purpose of this paper is to use Weibo as a window to examine the Chinese netizens’ online attitudes and responses to two sets of population policy: the Selective Two-Child…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to use Weibo as a window to examine the Chinese netizens’ online attitudes and responses to two sets of population policy: the Selective Two-Child Policy (Phase 2) and the Universal Two-Child Policy. The population policy change from the rigid One-Child Policy to the Selective Two-Child Policy then to the Universal Two-Child Policy aroused great attention of the Chinese people.

Design/methodology/approach

This research uses the crawler technique to extract data on the Sina Weibo platform. Through opinion mining of Weibo posts on two sets of population policy, the Weibo users’ online opinions on the Two-Child Policy are analyzed from two perspectives: their attention intensity and sentiment tendency. The research also use the State Bureau of Statistics of China’s national population data between 2011 and 2016 to examine the Chinese people’s actual birth behaviors after implementing the two different sets of the Two-Child Policy.

Findings

The research findings indicate that the Selective Two-Child Policy (Phase 2) and the Universal Two-Child Policy are good examples of thematic public sphere of Weibo. Weibo posts on the two sets of the Two-Child Policy have undergone different opinion cycles. People from economically developed regions and populous regions have paid more attention to both sets of Two-Child Policy than their counterparts in the less developed and less populated regions. Men pay more attention to the Two-Child Policy than women do. Despite people’s huge attention to the new population policy, the population growth after the policy is not sustainable.

Research limitations/implications

The new population policy alone is difficult to boost China’s population within a short period of time. The Chinese Government must provide its people with enough incentives and supporting welfare to make the population growth happen.

Originality/value

These findings have important implications for understanding the dynamics of online opinion formation and changing population policy in China.

Details

Online Information Review, vol. 43 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1468-4527

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 February 2018

Naiming Xie, Ruizhi Wang and Nanlei Chen

This paper aims to analyze general development trend of China’s population and to forecast China’s total population under the change of China’s family planning policy so as to…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyze general development trend of China’s population and to forecast China’s total population under the change of China’s family planning policy so as to measure shock disturbance effects on China’s population development.

Design/methodology/approach

China has been the most populous country for hundreds of years. And this state will be sustained in the forthcoming decade. Obviously, China is confronted with greater pressure on controlling total scale of population than any other country. Meanwhile, controlling population will be beneficial for not only China but also the whole world. This paper first analyzes general development trend of China’s population total amount, sex ratio and aging ratio. The mechanism for measurement of the impact effect of a policy shock disturbance is proposed. Linear regression model, exponential curve model and grey Verhulst model are adopted to test accuracy of simulation of China’s total population. Then considering the policy shock disturbance on population, discrete grey model, DGM (1, 1), and grey Verhulst model were adopted to measure how China’s one-child policy affected its total population between 1978 and 2015. And similarly, the grey Verhulst model and scenario analysis of economic developing level were further used to forecast the effect of adjustment from China’s one-child policy to two-child policy.

Findings

Results show that China has made an outstanding contribution toward controlling population; it was estimated that China prevented nearly 470 million births since the late 1970s to 2015. However, according to the forecast, with the adjustment of the one-child policy, the birth rate will be a little higher, China’s total population was estimated to reach 1,485.59 million in 2025. Although the scale of population will keep increasing, but it is tolerable for China and sex ratio and trend of aging will be relieved obviously.

Practical implications

The approach constructed in the paper can be used to measure the effect of population change under the policy shock disturbance. It can be used for other policy effect measurement problems under shock events’ disturbance.

Originality/value

The paper succeeded in studying the mechanism for the measurement of the post-impact effect of a policy and the effect of changes in China’s population following the revision of the one-child policy. The mechanism is useful for solving system forecasting problems and can contribute toward improving the grey decision-making models.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 47 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 July 2013

Ghada Barsoum

This paper aims to argue for the benefit of aligning the two policy objectives of youth inclusion and population regulation in Egypt. This alignment is mainly informed by the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to argue for the benefit of aligning the two policy objectives of youth inclusion and population regulation in Egypt. This alignment is mainly informed by the literature that identifies structural development issues as central to population regulation. These development issues relate to greater access to education, particularly to female youth, access to the labor market, access to family planning services and delayed age at marriage. These development issues are also at the heart of a youth‐focused policy agenda that would foster their successful transition to adulthood.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper provides stylized data on the situation of youth in Egypt along the youth‐ and population‐related parameters identified in the paper and surveys population policies in Egypt in view of recent changes related to the country's democratic transition.

Findings

There is great benefit in aligning the objectives of population regulation and youth integration policies in post‐January 25 Egypt. This alignment will revive the population‐focused policy agenda, which is ostensibly absent from the policy discourse, using an already vibrant discourse seeking to include youth as part of Egypt's democratic transition.

Originality/value

The paper contributes to the debate on youth and population issues in Egypt amid a highly volatile political scene and draws on the experience of post‐revolution Iran in terms of population policies.

Details

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, vol. 33 no. 7/8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-333X

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 28 December 2006

Maryann Davis and Nancy Koroloff

All individuals are challenged by the movement from being an adolescent living at home and attending school to being an adult typically heading a household and working to support…

Abstract

All individuals are challenged by the movement from being an adolescent living at home and attending school to being an adult typically heading a household and working to support him or herself. This period of time is called the transition to adulthood and is even more challenging for youth from vulnerable populations such as youth with disabilities, in foster care, in juvenile justice system, and the like (Osgood, Foster, Flanagan, & Ruth, 2005). The ages that transition encompasses have not gained consensus in research literature or policy. It begins at ages 14–16 in policies such as the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA; PL101-476, 1997 and 2004 amendments) or Federal programs such as the Social Security Administration's SSI Youth Transition Demonstration Projects, which identifies ages 22 and 25, respectively, as ending transition. Recent studies on young adulthood in the general population (Settersten, Frustenberg, & Rumbaut, 2005), found that by age 30, the rapid changes of young adulthood had typically stabilized. Thus, using the broadest ages indicated by policy and research, transition to stable adulthood encompasses ages 14–30.

Details

Research on Community-Based Mental Health Services for Children and Adolescents
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-416-4

Article
Publication date: 8 December 2022

Peter Jacobsen

The purpose of this paper is to examine the full opportunity cost of population policies by contrasting standard models of optimal population, which consider individuals to be…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the full opportunity cost of population policies by contrasting standard models of optimal population, which consider individuals to be homogeneous laborers, with a view that considers individuals' capacity for entrepreneurship. This paper therefore examines this relationship between population and economic growth with entrepreneurship considered.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper draws on James Buchanan's dichotomy of the organismic theory of government finance vs the individualistic theory and applies this dichotomy to population planning. This framework reveals entrepreneurial capacity is only compatible with the open-ended individualistic view. Lastly, the paper utilizes considers the number of potential entrepreneurs lost to China's one child policy and considers the case of Jack Ma as a concrete example of the potential opportunity cost of policies which seek to curb population growth.

Findings

The analysis shows it is impossible for either natural scientists or economists to determine a welfare-enhancing population policy. Creative and entrepreneurial individuals contribute to the economy in ways not captured by standard models. The implication is policies seeking to curb population growth may inhibit economic growth by reducing potential entrepreneurs. Politicians cannot measure the opportunity cost of forgone entrepreneurs, and therefore the costs of such policies are unseen.

Originality/value

While economists have examined the potential gains from creativity, this contribution is unique in that it highlights the inherent open-endedness involved in entrepreneurship means the opportunity cost of a forgone individual cannot be know because market conditions created by entrepreneurs do not exist absent the entrepreneurs.

Details

Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy, vol. 11 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2045-2101

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 December 2002

Christian Aspalter

Spotlights India and that by 2045 it may become a more populous country than China. Deplores the lack of social and economic development in India and looks at the reasons for…

2164

Abstract

Spotlights India and that by 2045 it may become a more populous country than China. Deplores the lack of social and economic development in India and looks at the reasons for these. Tries to explain why the population has shot up from 1971 and two‐thirds of the growth in India has taken place since then. Uses tables to aid in explanation of birth rates, literacy and literacy among females particularly. Concludes that the economic development and urbanization is to be commended but not the only key factor regarding fertility rates of single states.

Details

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, vol. 22 no. 11/12
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-333X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 February 2020

Safar Ghaedrahmati and Moslem Zarghamfard

Housing is an essential element in the dynamics of urbanization. One of the main reasons for urbanization is population growth. As the population grows, the need for housing also…

Abstract

Purpose

Housing is an essential element in the dynamics of urbanization. One of the main reasons for urbanization is population growth. As the population grows, the need for housing also increases. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the links between housing policies and plans and demographic issues in Iran.

Design/methodology/approach

The research has been conducted using the qualitative method. First, 14 main indicators of the population that occurred over the past 40 years have been extracted. To investigate the role of demographic indicators in seven main housing plans and policies in Iran, 30 indigenous housing experts have been interviewed. A criteria-based sampling method has been used in this research.

Findings

The results of this study show that demographic developments have been neglected in the formulation of Iranian housing policies and plans. It is also worth noting that the lack of attention to demographic issues a main reason for the failure of housing policies in Iran.

Practical implications

As an important implication, the present paper revealed that the mere submission of planning to the economists has been associated with an unpleasant consequence in Iran, and now, it is time to use various expertise and sciences in this important process, as well. Certainly, the use of other sciences such as urban planners contribute greatly to the housing promotion of plans.

Originality/value

In the present research, the relationship between housing and population changes has been investigated because of the significance of the housing sector in Iran besides the problems in the implementation of housing plans.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 May 2012

Guojun Wang and Xing Su

During the early 1970s, faced with the serious demographic situation, China began to fully implement the policy of family planning in urban and rural regions. Nowadays, the…

1206

Abstract

Purpose

During the early 1970s, faced with the serious demographic situation, China began to fully implement the policy of family planning in urban and rural regions. Nowadays, the problems of pension and medical care for aged parents confronted by the first generation of the one‐child family have begun to gradually appear. Meanwhile, China's population and the family planning are also faced with some problems that are difficult to solve, including unbalanced fertility rate of urban and rural population, the gender imbalance, the difficulty of the risk diversification in a one‐child family, as well as the profound contradiction between the stability of the family planning policy and the drive of administrative measures. Therefore, it is necessary to establish the integrated‐scheduled life security system of the one‐child family in urban and rural areas, in order to overcome the problems and to promote the transformation of the family planning policy. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the life security system for China's one‐child families.

Design/methodology/approach

The life security system for the one‐child family proposed by this paper consists of three issues: the basic security based on the level of social security, the additional security of the policy insurance and the supplementary security of the commercial insurance. The paper begins with the history of the family planning policy in the first section and then go through some relevant articles regarding complementary measures such as maternity insurance, rural endowment insurance that only focused on one aspect of issues associated with the family planning. In section three, four typical problems are listed for the purpose of following discussion of corresponding solutions which are full of deficiency in section four. In part five, the integrated planning of the life security system for Chinese one‐child family is elaborated with risk and fund management. In the last part, we conclude that the family planning policy maintains stable, whereas measures to be taken are adjusted along with changeable new problems.

Findings

The policy insurance plays an increasingly important role in dealing with the life security of older people in one‐child families. It may be better to promote the kind of insurance.

Originality/value

The paper comprehensively discusses the life security system for Chinese families in compliance with the family planning policy.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 13 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Transformation of Korean Politics and Administration: A 30 Year Retrospective
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80382-116-0

Book part
Publication date: 18 July 2016

Feng Yang, Yuan Yang and Zhimin Huang

As an important carrier of sustainable economy and social development, population is the foundation of the whole society. Scientific predictions of future population growth will…

Abstract

As an important carrier of sustainable economy and social development, population is the foundation of the whole society. Scientific predictions of future population growth will bring great reference to macro-economic and social planning. For China, as a country of the biggest population, the research on its population policy is worthwhile.

Previous literatures on population growth prediction are generally based on time-series analysis. However, the new two-child policy in China provides us an opportunity to predict the population growth from the perspective of the welfare efficiency, since each family is able to determine whether to have the second child on account of the family’s utility. The welfare efficiency is calculated through the database of newborn babies, disposable income per capita, living resource per capita, and health expenditure pre capital. These are the main factors by which each family decides whether to bear additional babies. In this chapter, we perform the micro-economic analysis on a new policy and propose a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method to predict the population growth. Under the condition of policy adjustment, we successfully predict the population growth with this method. We also propose some suggestions concerning the implementation of the new policy.

Details

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-534-8

Keywords

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