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This paper aims to quantify the impact of craft worker shortage on construction project safety performance.

A database of 50 North American construction projects completed between 2001 and 2014 was compiled by taking information from a research project survey and the Construction Industry Institute Benchmarking and Metrics Database. The t-test and Mann-Whitney test were used to determine whether there was a significant difference in construction project safety performance on projects with craft worker recruiting difficulty. Poisson regression analysis was then used to examine the relationship between craft worker recruiting difficulty and Occupational Safety and Health Administration Total Number of Recordable Incident Cases per 200,000 Actual Direct Work Hours (TRIR) on construction projects.

The result showed that the TRIR distribution of a group of projects that reported craft worker recruiting difficulty tended to be higher than the TRIR distribution of a group of projects with no craft worker recruiting difficulty (p-value = 0.004). Moreover, the average TRIR of the projects that reported craft worker recruiting difficulty was more than two times the average TRIR of projects that experienced no craft recruiting difficulty (p-value = 0.035). Furthermore, the Poisson regression analysis demonstrated that there was a positive exponential relationship between craft worker recruiting difficulty and TRIR in construction projects (p-value = 0.004).

The projects used to construct the database are heavily weighted towards industrial construction.

There have been significant long-term gains in construction safety within the USA. However, if recent craft shortages continue, the quantitative analyses presented herein indicate a strong possibility that more safety incidents will occur unless the shortages are reversed. Innovative construction means and methods should be developed and adopted to work in a safe manner with a less qualified workforce.

The Poisson regression model is the first model that quantifiably links project craft worker availability to construction project safety performance.

The COVID-19 pandemic, a sudden and disruptive external shock to the USA and global economy, profoundly affected various operations. Thus, it becomes imperative to investigate the repercussions of this pandemic on the US housing market. This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a crucial facet of the real estate market: the Time on the Market (TOM). Therefore, this study aims to ascertain the net effect of this unprecedented event after controlling for economic influences and real estate market variations.

Monthly time series data were collected for the period of January 2010 through December 2022 for statistical analysis. Given the temporal nature of the data, we conducted the Durbin–Watson test on the OLS residuals to ascertain the presence of autocorrelation. Subsequently, we used the generalized regression model to mitigate any identified issues of autocorrelation. However, it is important to note that the response variable derived from count data (specifically, the median number of months), which may not conform to the normality assumption associated with standard regression models. To better accommodate this, we opted to use Poisson regression as an alternative approach. Additionally, recognizing the possibility of overdispersion in the count data, we also explored the application of the negative binomial model as a means to address this concern, if present.

This study’s findings offer an insightful perspective on the housing market’s resilience in the face of COVID-19 external shock, aligning with previous research outcomes. Although TOM showed a decrease of around 10 days with standard regression and 27% with Poisson regression during the COVID-19 pandemic, it is noteworthy that this reduction lacked statistical significance in both models. As such, the impact of COVID-19 on TOM, and consequently on the housing market, appears less dramatic than initially anticipated.

This research deepens our understanding of the complex lead–lag relationships between key factors, ultimately facilitating an early indication of housing price movements. It extends the existing literature by scrutinizing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the TOM. From a pragmatic viewpoint, this research carries valuable implications for real estate professionals and policymakers. It equips them with the tools to assess the prevailing conditions of the real estate market and to prepare for potential shifts in market dynamics. Specifically, both investors and policymakers are urged to remain vigilant in monitoring changes in the inventory of houses for sale. This vigilant approach can serve as an early warning system for upcoming market changes, helping stakeholders make well-informed decisions.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze food security status and its determinants among households in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.

The analysis is based on the General Household Survey which was conducted in 2014 where 3,033 households were sampled from the province. Specifically, this study examines the determinants of food security proxy by dietary diversity (24-hour recall) using descriptive statistics, Poisson regression. A frequency count of food groups consumed household dietary diversity score was used as the explained variable.

The descriptive analysis shows that, although 61.7 percent of households in the study area have a high dietary diversity score, however, food group giving micronutrients are less consumed as food groups having cereals (maize), beef, sugar and oil was mostly consumed. Results on the marginal effect of Poisson regression indicate that household head characteristics (age, gender, education, marital status, and employment status), pension receiving households and geographical location significantly influence household dietary diversity.

This study advocates for the intensification of rural development and food security programs, formal and informal education for household heads, female empowerment and dietary enlightenment for households in order to promote the consumption of diverse diets and more healthful food groups.

Probability of Default (PD) is a crucial credit risk parameter. International accords have motivated banks and credit institutions to adopt objective systems of evaluating and monitoring the PD. This study examines retail unsecured loans of a major Greek bank during the period of the financial crisis. It focusses on the stochastic behaviour of the financial states of the loans. It is tested whether a first-order Markov chain (MC) model describes sufficiently the transitions from one state to another. Moreover, Poisson regression models are estimated in order to calculate the limiting transition matrix, the limiting state probabilities and the PD. It is proved that the MC of the financial states of loans is non-homogeneous suggesting that the transition probabilities from one financial state to another are not constant across time. From the Poisson regression models, the transition probability matrix is estimated from one state to another in alternative time periods. From the limiting transition matrix, it is shown that if a loan is delayed then it is very likely to move towards the next worst case. The findings of this research could be useful for bank management.

The study aims to design a control chart based on an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart of Pearson's residuals of a model of negative binomial regression in order to detect possible anomalies in mortality data.

In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed chart, the authors have considered official historical records of death of children of Ecuador. A negative binomial regression model was fitted to the data, and a chart of the Pearson residuals was designed. The parameters of the chart were obtained by simulation, as well as the performances of the charts related to changes in the mean of death.

When the chart was plotted, outliers were detected in the deaths of children in the years 1990–1995, 2001–2006, 2013–2015, which could show that there are underreporting or an excessive growth in mortality. In the analysis of performances, the value of λ = 0.05 presented the fastest detection of changes in the mean death.

The proposed charts present better performances in relation to EWMA charts for deviance residuals, with a remarkable advantage of the Pearson residuals, which are much easier to interpret and calculate. Finally, the authors would like to point out that although this paper only applies control charts to Ecuadorian infant mortality, the methodology can be used to calculate mortality in any geographical area or to detect outbreaks of infectious diseases.

This paper aims to report on research undertaken in an National Health Service (NHS) emergency department in the north of England, UK, to identify which patients, with which clinical conditions are returning to the emergency department with an unscheduled return visit (URV) within seven days. This paper analyses the data in relation to the newly introduced Integrated Care Boards (ICBs). The continued upward increase in demand for emergency care services requires a new type of “upstreamist”, health system leader from the emergency department, who can report on URV data to influence the development of integrated care services to reduce further demand on the emergency department.

Patients were identified through the emergency department symphony data base and included patients with at least one return visit to emergency department (ED) within seven days. A sample of 1,000 index visits between 1 January 2019–31 October 2019 was chosen by simple random sampling technique through Excel. Out of 1,000, only 761 entries had complete data in all variables. A statistical analysis was undertaken using Poisson regression using NCSS statistical software. A review of the literature on integrated health care and its relationship with health systems leadership was undertaken to conceptualise a new type of “upstreamist” system leadership to advance the integration of health care.

Out of all 83 variables regressed with statistical analysis, only 12 variables were statistically significant on multi-variable regression. The most statistically important factor were patients presenting with gynaecological disorders, whose relative rate ratio (RR) for early-URV was 43% holding the other variables constant. Eye problems were also statistically highly significant (RR = 41%) however, clinically both accounted for just 1% and 2% of the URV, respectively. The URV data combined with “upstreamist” system leadership from the ED is required as a critical mechanism to identify gaps and inform a rationale for integrated care models to lessen further demand on emergency services in the ED.

At a time of significant pressure for emergency departments, there needs to be a move towards more collaborative health system leadership with support from statistical analyses of the URV rate, which will continue to provide critical information to influence the development of integrated health and care services. This study identifies areas for further research, particularly for mixed methods studies to ascertain why patients with specific complaints return to the emergency department and if alternative pathways could be developed. The success of the Esther model in Sweden gives hope that patient-centred service development could create meaningful integrated health and care services.

This research was a large-scale quantitative study drawing upon data from one hospital in the UK to identify risk factors for URV. This quality metric can generate important data to inform the development of integrated health and care services. Further research is required to review URV data for the whole of the NHS and with the new Integrated Health and Care Boards, there is a new impetus to push for this metric to provide robust data to prioritise the need to develop integrated services where there are gaps.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first large-scale study of its kind to generate whole hospital data on risk factors for URVs to the emergency department. The URV is an important global quality metric and will continue to generate important data on those patients with specific complaints who return back to the emergency department. This is a critical time for the NHS and at the same time an important opportunity to develop “Esther” patient-centred approaches in the design of integrated health and care services.

As a field, we should put more emphasis on interpreting the magnitude of coefficient estimates rather than only assessing statistical significance. To support this claim, I demonstrate how focusing only on statistical significance can lead to incorrect and incomplete conclusions in many common applications of the linear regression model. Moreover, I demonstrate why interpreting coefficient estimates in common non-linear estimators (e.g., probit, logit, Poisson, and negative binomial estimators) requires additional care compared to the linear regression model.

Convenience and health trends are arguably the two most prevailing consumption trends in the British food market, with single‐adult households as keener followers than many other household types. Two portfolios of food products have been developed as proxies of the twin trends respectively, and the Poisson regression technique is employed to segment these two trend markets. Results confirm some previously held views, challenge others, and make some serendipity that has not been found in previous studies. Marketers are informed of greater accessibility in the health trend market vis‐à‐vis the convenience trend market for segmentation purpose, and are advised to treat the two trend markets as non‐overlapping. A number of future research directions, including a multivariate measure of the aspiration intensity of the two food trends and a measure of the twin trends for a wider range of typical products within the consumer market, are suggested.

A wetland is a place of tourist attraction, and tourism values play a key role in economic development. Among various services provided by a wetland, recreational services are increasingly valuable in the tourism sector. This paper aims to unfold the potential recreational values of the Dal Lake in Jammu and Kashmir, India.

The study uses individual travel cost methods (TCMs) and assesses its impact on regional development in terms of income and employment generation. A sample of 200 tourists is selected through an on-site survey on Dal Lake, and the demand for recreational visits and its value is estimated by employing the truncated Poisson regression model (TPRM) and un-truncated Poisson regression model (UTPRM). The consumers' surplus is estimated and tourists' benefit to visiting the wetland is explored.

On average, estimated consumers' surplus per visitor is Rs 6,250 (US$96.15) and Rs 25,000 (US$384.61) from respective models. The annual total recreational value of the lake is accounted for Rs 1713m (US$ 26m). This high consumer surplus (CS) and recreational values of the lake indicate large demand for its recreational facilities.

The study is based on primary data and thus, is original. The paper has implications for the policymakers to formulate sustainable management plans for the proper use of Dal Lake and tourism development.

Using data on Indian listed companies for 2005, the purpose of this paper is to examine how firm ownership relates to auditor choice. More specifically, the author tests several hypotheses about the links between firm ownership, auditor relationships and earnings management.

Several econometric techniques were employed including ordinary least squares, logit regression, ordered logit regression, Poisson and negative binomial regression to test the association between firm ownership and auditors.

The results indicate that firms having high discretionary accruals are less likely to be audited by domestic entities. The analysis also suggests that domestic auditors are less likely to be preferred by both foreign and Indian private corporations. In addition, the analysis indicates that audit fees are higher for firms with higher earnings opacity.

Driven by data availability, the paper relies on cross‐sectional data.

The results demonstrate that firm ownership is an important consideration for firm auditor relationships. Thus, policymakers should not worry if firms persistently choose to do business with the same auditor. Second, the results are a pointer to the fact that given the differences in their governance structures, the role of domestic and foreign auditors in servicing business groups and state‐owned corporations is distinctly different. Finally, the evidence suggests that the choice of multiple auditors is more to address the complexities involved in multiple business lines, as opposed to curtailing audit fees.

To the author's knowledge, this is perhaps the first study for an emerging economy and more certainly for India to examine the firm ownership‐auditor nexus.