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Purpose – The purpose of this study is to develop a numerical framework to predict the time-dependent probability of failure of a bridge subjected to multiple vehicle impacts. Specially, this study focuses on investigating the inter-relationship between changes in life-cycle parameters (e.g., damage size caused by vehicle impact, loss of initial structural capacity, and threshold intervention) and bridges probability of failure.

Design/Methodology/Approach – The numerical procedure using MATLAB program is developed to compute the probability failure of a bridge. First, the importance and characteristics of life-cycle analysis is described. Then, model for damage accumulation and life cycle as a result of heavy vehicle impacts is discussed. Finally, the probability of failure of a bridge subjected to vehicle impacts as a result of change in life-cycle parameters is presented.

Findings – The results of study show that damage size caused by both vehicle impacts and loss of initial structural capacity have a great impact on the long-term safety of bridges. In addition, the probability of failure of a bridge under different threshold limits indicates that the structural intervention (e.g., repair or maintenance) should be undertaken to extend the service life of a bridge.

Research Limitations/Implications – The damage sizes caused by heavy vehicle impacts are based on simple assumptions. It is suggested that there would be a further study to estimate the magnitude of bridge damage as a result of vehicle impact using the full-scale impact test or computational simulation.

Practical Implications – This will allow much better predictions for residual life of bridges which could potentially be used to support decisions on health and maintenance of bridges.

Originality/Value – The life-cycle performance for assessing the time-dependent probability of failure of bridges subjected to multiple vehicle impact has not been fully discussed so far.