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EU countries, including those in Central and Eastern Europe, seem to have increasingly similar economies, allowing for the study of real convergence as a process of equalising income levels (measured by GDP per capita). Studies of income convergence in the European Union also have a regional dimension and often focus on convergence at the NUTS2 or NUTS3 regional level. The level of development and income in Polish regions differ significantly. The regional policy implemented at the national and EU level focuses on reducing these differences.

The main aim of the chapter is to analyse the income convergence process among regions in Poland and verify the effectiveness of regional policy implemented at the national and EU level.

The study uses Barro type regression for panel data, log t convergence test, and club clustering algorithm introduced by Phillips and Sul to identify patterns of club convergence in Polish regions. The data used for the study is the Local Data Bank provided by Statistics Poland, which includes gross domestic product per capita at the NUTS-3 level for 73 Polish regions over the period of 2000–2020.

The results of the study indicate a very weak convergence process for all Polish NUTS-3 regions and suggest a club convergence. The club convergence is characterised by regions with similar income levels clustering together. The regional distribution of clubs is similar to the regional distribution of income. The study's findings provide important insights into the effectiveness of regional policy in Poland and suggest that policymakers need to focus on policies that promote catch-up growth in less developed regions. The study also highlights the importance of supporting the most developed regions in the country as they can play a crucial role in driving the country's economic growth and prosperity.

The research analyzes the convergence of several socioeconomic indicators in a sample of 137 countries over the period 1990–2019. Applying log t-convergence tests, it finds that socioeconomic indicators’ convergence is divergent. Measuring seven different indicators, there are only two indicators of life expectancy and access to the internet converging at the global level, while the remaining indicators of gross domestic product per capita (GDPP), foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, urbanization, fertility, and CO₂ emissions do not. An extension to sub-sample analysis by levels of income and clustering convergence clubs is employed to confirm the heterogeneity and complexity of development pathways among countries. There are several insights for researchers and governments regarding future research and policies, especially for the development of developing countries.

Measurement of diminishing or divergent cross section dispersion in a panel plays an important role in the assessment of convergence or divergence over time in key economic indicators. Econometric methods, known as weak σ-convergence tests, have recently been developed (Kong, Phillips, & Sul, 2019) to evaluate such trends in dispersion in panel data using simple linear trend regressions. To achieve generality in applications, these tests rely on heteroskedastic and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) variance estimates. The present chapter examines the behavior of these convergence tests when heteroskedastic and autocorrelation robust (HAR) variance estimates using fixed-b methods are employed instead of HAC estimates. Asymptotic theory for both HAC and HAR convergence tests is derived and numerical simulations are used to assess performance in null (no convergence) and alternative (convergence) cases. While the use of HAR statistics tends to reduce size distortion, as has been found in earlier analytic and numerical research, use of HAR estimates in nonparametric standardization leads to significant power differences asymptotically, which are reflected in finite sample performance in numerical exercises. The explanation is that weak σ-convergence tests rely on intentionally misspecified linear trend regression formulations of unknown trend decay functions that model convergence behavior rather than regressions with correctly specified trend decay functions. Some new results on the use of HAR inference with trending regressors are derived and an empirical application to assess diminishing variation in US State unemployment rates is included.

This paper proposes a new class of estimators for the autoregressive coefficient of a dynamic panel data model with random individual effects and nonstationary initial condition. The new estimators we introduce are weighted averages of the well-known first difference (FD) GMM/IV estimator and the pooled ordinary least squares (POLS) estimator. The proposed procedure seeks to exploit the differing strengths of the FD GMM/IV estimator relative to the pooled OLS estimator. In particular, the latter is inconsistent in the stationary case but is consistent and asymptotically normal with a faster rate of convergence than the former when the underlying panel autoregressive process has a unit root. By averaging the two estimators in an appropriate way, we are able to construct a class of estimators which are consistent and asymptotically standard normal, when suitably standardized, in both the stationary and the unit root case. The results of our simulation study also show that our proposed estimator has favorable finite sample properties when compared to a number of existing estimators.

This paper is concerned with estimation and inference for difference-in-difference regressions with errors that exhibit high serial dependence, including near unit roots, unit roots, and linear trends. We propose a couple of solutions based on a parametric formulation of the error covariance. First stage estimates of autoregressive structures are obtained by using the Han, Phillips, and Sul (2011, 2013) X-differencing transformation. The X-differencing method is simple to implement and is unbiased in large N settings. Compared to similar parametric methods, the approach is computationally simple and requires fewer restrictions on the permissible parameter space of the error process. Simulations suggest that our methods perform well in the finite sample across a wide range of panel dimensions and dependence structures.

This paper considers stationary regression models with near-collinear regressors. Limit theory is developed for regression estimates and test statistics in cases where the signal matrix is nearly singular in finite samples and is asymptotically degenerate. Examples include models that involve evaporating trends in the regressors that arise in conditions such as growth convergence. Structural equation models are also considered and limit theory is derived for the corresponding instrumental variable (IV) estimator, Wald test statistic, and overidentification test when the regressors are endogenous. It is shown that near-singular designs of the type considered here are not completely fatal to least squares inference, but do inevitably involve size distortion except in special Gaussian cases. In the endogenous case, IV estimation is inconsistent and both the block Wald test and Sargan overidentification test are conservative, biasing these tests in favor of the null.

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges for the earth that is mostly driven by human actions. The rapid increase of world population forces the businesses to reach the economies of scale. Digital and technological transformation of the world, thanks to “Industry 4.0,” provides new opportunities for production as well as international trade. Today, the green production process of an imported product could produce lower emissions than producing domestically. However, the greenest countries in the world are developed ones such as Denmark, Switzerland, and Austria. Furthermore, nearly half of the goods' export belongs to developing economies. This chapter focuses on the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission of 18 countries that produce approximately 75% of the world's CO₂ emission and its determinants. The main target of the study is to investigate the impact of export on carbon emission. The convergence estimation and responsiveness scores (RSs) of countries' CO₂ emission levels are performed to find carbon emission convergent groups and the impact of emission determinants. Besides, the study divides the export of countries into broad economic categories (BEC) and evaluates the impact of capital goods, intermediate goods, and consumption goods groups over the emission. The findings demonstrate that intermediate goods export leads to 7.4% deviation of CO₂ emission whereas the effects of capital and consumption goods are neutral. To the knowledge of the authors, this is the first research discussing the BEC classification impact over the carbon emission of that 18 countries. The results help to take necessary and effective measures of supranational organizations to have a sustainable trade policy especially for the post-Covid-19 period of the world.

This paper examines a nonparametric CUSUM-type test for common trends in large panel data sets with individual fixed effects. We consider, as in Zhang, Su, and Phillips (2012), a partial linear regression model with unknown functional form for the trend component, although our test does not involve local smoothings. This conveniently forgoes the need to choose a bandwidth parameter, which due to a lack of a clear and sensible information criteria is difficult for testing purposes. We are able to do so after making use that the number of individuals increases with no limit. After removing the parametric component of the model, when the errors are homoscedastic, our test statistic converges to a Gaussian process whose critical values are easily tabulated. We also examine the consequences of having heteroscedasticity as well as discussing the problem of how to compute valid critical values due to the very complicated covariance structure of the limiting process. Finally, we present a small Monte Carlo experiment to shed some light on the finite sample performance of the test.

This chapter proposes semiparametric estimation of the relationship between growth rate of GDP per capita, growth rates of physical and human capital, labor as well as other covariates and common trends for a panel of 23 OECD countries observed over the period 1971–2015. The observed differentiated behaviors by country reveal strong heterogeneity. This is the motivation behind using a mixed fixed- and random coefficients model to estimate this relationship. In particular, this chapter uses a semiparametric specification with random intercepts and slopes coefficients. Motivated by Lee and Wand (2016), the authors estimate a mean field variational Bayes semiparametric model with random coefficients for this panel of countries. Results reveal nonparametric specifications for the common trends. The use of this flexible methodology may enrich the empirical growth literature underlining a large diversity of responses across variables and countries.

This paper provides a selective survey of the panel macroeconometric techniques that focus on controlling the impact of “unobserved heterogeneity” across individuals and over time to obtain valid inference for “structures” that are common across individuals and over time. We consider issues of (i) estimating vector autoregressive models; (ii) testing of unit root or cointegration; (iii) statistical inference for dynamic simultaneous equations models; (iv) policy evaluation; and (v) aggregation and prediction.