The purpose of this paper is to study the optimal long-run rate of inflation in the presence of a hybrid Phillips curve, which nests a purely backward-looking Phillips…
The purpose of this paper is to study the optimal long-run rate of inflation in the presence of a hybrid Phillips curve, which nests a purely backward-looking Phillips curve and the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) as special limiting cases.
This paper derives the long-run rate of inflation in a basic New Keynesian (NK) model, characterized by sticky prices and rule-of-thumb behavior by price setters. The monetary authority possesses commitment and its objective function stems from an approximation to the utility of the representative household.
Commitment solution for the monetary authority leads to steady-state outcomes in which inflation, albeit small, is positive. Rising from zero under the purely forward-looking NKPC, the optimal long-run rate of inflation reaches its maximum under the purely backward-looking Phillips curve. In this case, inflation bias arises, while, under the hybrid Phillips curve, positive long-run inflation is associated with an output gain.
This paper serves as a clarification against the misperception that log-linearized models take as given the steady-state inflation rate rather than being capable of determining it. Analysis is sensitive to the basic NK setting, with the assumed rule-of-thumb behavior by price setters and price staggering.
The results are the first to quantify the optimal long-run rate of inflation in a fully microfounded model that nests different Phillips curves.
Studies linking monetary policy to inflation and unemployment rates in the context of the Phillips curve are limited to conventional economics. On the other hand, research…
Studies linking monetary policy to inflation and unemployment rates in the context of the Phillips curve are limited to conventional economics. On the other hand, research related to application of the dual monetary policy is limited to discussion of monetary policy transmission lines, especially in Islamic banking channels. Therefore, this study aims to determine the monetary policy response in implementation of the dual monetary policy to two important indicators in the macro economy, namely, inflation and unemployment. In addition, the study reveals the relevance of the Phillips curve in Indonesia.
The method used is vector auto regression vector autoregression (VAR) with monthly data from February 2005 to October 2016 for the first model and semi-annual data from February 2005 to August 2017 for the second model. Analysis of VAR estimation in this research uses the impulse response function (IRF) to analyze the degree of sensitivity or responsiveness to a shock between variables and the variance decomposition (VD) application to analyze how the proportion of each independent variable’s contribution affects the money supply.
The result shows that monetary policy has responded appropriately to the problems of inflation and unemployment. However, inflation generates a bigger response than unemployment. Bank Indonesia considers the inflation expectations aspect of both conventional and Islamic references. Finally, the concept of the Phillips curve proves to be irrelevant in Indonesia.
The central bank is expected to build a more effective policy for transmission from the monetary sector to the real sector to effectively overcome the problems of inflation and unemployment. Furthermore, Indonesia needs to increase policies to overcome problems on the supply side.
The results of this study provide new insights into application of the dual monetary policy toward inflation and unemployment.
Some structural evidence indicating a substantial degree of inertiain commodity prices in Pakistan within the context of a completerational expectations macroeconomic…
Some structural evidence indicating a substantial degree of inertia in commodity prices in Pakistan within the context of a complete rational expectations macroeconomic model is provided. The evidence also supports the existence of a short‐run Phillips curve for Pakistan for the period 1972(1) to 1981(4). What is more interesting is the existence of a long‐run “trade‐off” between excess demand for labour and inflation despite the fact that inflationary expectations are assumed to be rational.
Monthly 1980–2014 data are examined to determine how employment responds to money supply shocks in Canada and the United States. The focus of the analysis is a comparison…
Monthly 1980–2014 data are examined to determine how employment responds to money supply shocks in Canada and the United States. The focus of the analysis is a comparison of the real economies’ responses to the financial crisis and the great recession. Employment is used as a proxy for real output, though it may respond to monetary shocks with a longer lag. Vector autoregression models are specified, estimated, and interpreted. Impulse response functions are examined to assess the impact of innovations in monetary policy. A comparison of the response of employment to monetary innovations allows for evaluation of alternative business cycle theories and of the relative efficacy of Canadian v. U.S. monetary policy. Cross-border impacts are also assessed. Granger causality tests are used to examine whether money supply growth causes unemployment, whether monetary shocks cause higher or lower employment, and distinguish between short-run and long-run effects.
The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II. Globalization, liberalization, integration, and transition processes generally shaped the crucial milestones of the macroeconomic development and substantial features of economic policy and its framework in Europe. Policy-driven changes together with variety of exogenous shocks significantly affected the key features of macroeconomic environment on the European continent that fashioned the framework and design of monetary policies.
This chapter examines the key basis of the central bank’s monetary policy on its way to pursue and preserve the internal and external stability of the purchasing power of money. Substantial elements of the monetary policy like objectives and strategies are not only generally introduced but also critically discussed according to their accuracy, suitability, and reliability in the changing macroeconomic conditions. Brief overview of the Eurozone common monetary policy milestones and the past Eastern bloc countries’ experience with a variety of exchange rate regimes provides interesting empirical evidence on origins and implications of vital changes in the monetary policy conduction in Europe and the Eurozone.
The recent publication of a sixth edition of Dornbusch and Fischer’s (D&F’s) Macroeconomics will be of interest to many teachers of macro theory. D&F’s text must currently…
The recent publication of a sixth edition of Dornbusch and Fischer’s (D&F’s) Macroeconomics will be of interest to many teachers of macro theory. D&F’s text must currently be one of the most widely used intermediate‐level guides to macroeconomics; as the authors themselves tell us, the book has been translated into many languages and is in use around the world “from Canada to Argentina and Australia, all over Europe, in India, Indonesia and Japan, from China and Albania to Russia”. The undogmatic “middle‐of‐the‐road” approach, together with the careful and clear presentation characteristic of this user‐friendly textbook, has won it many friends.
This paper examines the hypotheses that the length and the depth of the Great Depression were a result of sticky prices or sticky nominal wages using panel data for…
This paper examines the hypotheses that the length and the depth of the Great Depression were a result of sticky prices or sticky nominal wages using panel data for industrialized and semi-industrialized countries. The results show that price stickiness, particularly, and wage stickiness were key propagating factors during the first years of the Depression. It is found that prices adjusted slowly to wages, particularly in manufacturing. Manufacturing wages are also found to adjust relatively slowly to innovations in prices, but unemployment exerted strong downward pressure on wage growth.