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We compare the finite sample power of short- and long-horizon tests in nonlinear predictive regression models of regime switching between bull and bear markets, allowing…
We compare the finite sample power of short- and long-horizon tests in nonlinear predictive regression models of regime switching between bull and bear markets, allowing for time varying transition probabilities. As a point of reference, we also provide a similar comparison in a linear predictive regression model without regime switching. Overall, our results do not support the contention of higher power in longer horizon tests in either the linear or nonlinear regime switching models. Nonetheless, it is possible that other plausible nonlinear models provide stronger justification for long-horizon tests.
This chapter examines the limit properties of information criteria (such as AIC, BIC, and HQIC) for distinguishing between the unit-root (UR) model and the various kinds of explosive models. The explosive models include the local-to-unit-root model from the explosive side the mildly explosive (ME) model, and the regular explosive model. Initial conditions with different orders of magnitude are considered. Both the OLS estimator and the indirect inference estimator are studied. It is found that BIC and HQIC, but not AIC, consistently select the UR model when data come from the UR model. When data come from the local-to-unit-root model from the explosive side, both BIC and HQIC select the wrong model with probability approaching 1 while AIC has a positive probability of selecting the right model in the limit. When data come from the regular explosive model or from the ME model in the form of 1 + nα/n with α ∈ (0, 1), all three information criteria consistently select the true model. Indirect inference estimation can increase or decrease the probability for information criteria to select the right model asymptotically relative to OLS, depending on the information criteria and the true model. Simulation results confirm our asymptotic results in finite sample.
Measurement of diminishing or divergent cross section dispersion in a panel plays an important role in the assessment of convergence or divergence over time in key…
Measurement of diminishing or divergent cross section dispersion in a panel plays an important role in the assessment of convergence or divergence over time in key economic indicators. Econometric methods, known as weak σ-convergence tests, have recently been developed (Kong, Phillips, & Sul, 2019) to evaluate such trends in dispersion in panel data using simple linear trend regressions. To achieve generality in applications, these tests rely on heteroskedastic and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) variance estimates. The present chapter examines the behavior of these convergence tests when heteroskedastic and autocorrelation robust (HAR) variance estimates using fixed-b methods are employed instead of HAC estimates. Asymptotic theory for both HAC and HAR convergence tests is derived and numerical simulations are used to assess performance in null (no convergence) and alternative (convergence) cases. While the use of HAR statistics tends to reduce size distortion, as has been found in earlier analytic and numerical research, use of HAR estimates in nonparametric standardization leads to significant power differences asymptotically, which are reflected in finite sample performance in numerical exercises. The explanation is that weak σ-convergence tests rely on intentionally misspecified linear trend regression formulations of unknown trend decay functions that model convergence behavior rather than regressions with correctly specified trend decay functions. Some new results on the use of HAR inference with trending regressors are derived and an empirical application to assess diminishing variation in US State unemployment rates is included.
This paper provides a selective survey of the panel macroeconometric techniques that focus on controlling the impact of “unobserved heterogeneity” across individuals and…
This paper provides a selective survey of the panel macroeconometric techniques that focus on controlling the impact of “unobserved heterogeneity” across individuals and over time to obtain valid inference for “structures” that are common across individuals and over time. We consider issues of (i) estimating vector autoregressive models; (ii) testing of unit root or cointegration; (iii) statistical inference for dynamic simultaneous equations models; (iv) policy evaluation; and (v) aggregation and prediction.
These moments of the asymptotic distribution of the least-squares estimator of the local-to-unity autoregressive model are computed using computationally simple…
These moments of the asymptotic distribution of the least-squares estimator of the local-to-unity autoregressive model are computed using computationally simple integration. These calculations show that conventional simulation estimation of moments can be substantially inaccurate unless the simulation sample size is very large. We also explore the minimax efficiency of autoregressive coefficient estimation, and numerically show that a simple Stein shrinkage estimator has minimax risk which is uniformly better than least squares, even though the estimation dimension is just one.
New asymptotic approximations are established for the Wald and t statistics in the presence of unknown but strong autocorrelation. The asymptotic theory extends the usual…
New asymptotic approximations are established for the Wald and t statistics in the presence of unknown but strong autocorrelation. The asymptotic theory extends the usual fixed-smoothing asymptotics under weak dependence to allow for near-unit-root and weak-unit-root processes. As the locality parameter that characterizes the neighborhood of the autoregressive root increases from zero to infinity, the new fixed-smoothing asymptotic distribution changes smoothly from the unit-root fixed-smoothing asymptotics to the usual fixed-smoothing asymptotics under weak dependence. Simulations show that the new approximation is more accurate than the usual fixed-smoothing approximation.
This paper considers a class of parametric models with nonparametric autoregressive errors. A new test is established and studied to deal with the parametric specification…
This paper considers a class of parametric models with nonparametric autoregressive errors. A new test is established and studied to deal with the parametric specification of the nonparametric autoregressive errors with either stationarity or nonstationarity. Such a test procedure can initially avoid misspecification through the need to parametrically specify the form of the errors. In other words, we estimate the form of the errors and test for stationarity or nonstationarity simultaneously. We establish asymptotic distributions of the proposed test. Both the setting and the results differ from earlier work on testing for unit roots in parametric time series regression. We provide both simulated and real-data examples to show that the proposed nonparametric unit root test works in practice.
This paper proposes a new class of estimators for the autoregressive coefficient of a dynamic panel data model with random individual effects and nonstationary initial…
This paper proposes a new class of estimators for the autoregressive coefficient of a dynamic panel data model with random individual effects and nonstationary initial condition. The new estimators we introduce are weighted averages of the well-known first difference (FD) GMM/IV estimator and the pooled ordinary least squares (POLS) estimator. The proposed procedure seeks to exploit the differing strengths of the FD GMM/IV estimator relative to the pooled OLS estimator. In particular, the latter is inconsistent in the stationary case but is consistent and asymptotically normal with a faster rate of convergence than the former when the underlying panel autoregressive process has a unit root. By averaging the two estimators in an appropriate way, we are able to construct a class of estimators which are consistent and asymptotically standard normal, when suitably standardized, in both the stationary and the unit root case. The results of our simulation study also show that our proposed estimator has favorable finite sample properties when compared to a number of existing estimators.
IV estimation is examined when some instruments may be invalid. This is relevant because the initial just-identifying orthogonality conditions are untestable, whereas…
IV estimation is examined when some instruments may be invalid. This is relevant because the initial just-identifying orthogonality conditions are untestable, whereas their validity is required when testing the orthogonality of additional instruments by so-called overidentification restriction tests. Moreover, these tests have limited power when samples are small, especially when instruments are weak. Distinguishing between conditional and unconditional settings, we analyze the limiting distribution of inconsistent IV and examine normal first-order asymptotic approximations to its density in finite samples. For simple classes of models we compare these approximations with their simulated empirical counterparts over almost the full parameter space. The latter is expressed in measures for: model fit, simultaneity, instrument invalidity, and instrument weakness. Our major findings are that for the accuracy of large sample asymptotic approximations instrument weakness is much more detrimental than instrument invalidity. Also, IV estimators obtained from strong but possibly invalid instruments are usually much closer to the true parameter values than those obtained from valid but weak instruments.
This paper examines a nonparametric CUSUM-type test for common trends in large panel data sets with individual fixed effects. We consider, as in Zhang, Su, and Phillips…
This paper examines a nonparametric CUSUM-type test for common trends in large panel data sets with individual fixed effects. We consider, as in Zhang, Su, and Phillips (2012), a partial linear regression model with unknown functional form for the trend component, although our test does not involve local smoothings. This conveniently forgoes the need to choose a bandwidth parameter, which due to a lack of a clear and sensible information criteria is difficult for testing purposes. We are able to do so after making use that the number of individuals increases with no limit. After removing the parametric component of the model, when the errors are homoscedastic, our test statistic converges to a Gaussian process whose critical values are easily tabulated. We also examine the consequences of having heteroscedasticity as well as discussing the problem of how to compute valid critical values due to the very complicated covariance structure of the limiting process. Finally, we present a small Monte Carlo experiment to shed some light on the finite sample performance of the test.