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Article
Publication date: 23 October 2007

Philippe Durance and Michel Godet

The paper aims to query the value of strategies implemented, notably in France, and to demonstrate the largely ignored link between demographics and economics.

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Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to query the value of strategies implemented, notably in France, and to demonstrate the largely ignored link between demographics and economics.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper achieves its objective by comparing statistics of European Union (EU) members and competitors to reveal that traditional views on economics and social policy may no longer apply.

Findings

The paper finds that the Old Europe stagnated due to political lack of will, but a renewed Europe has begun. The Euro as scapegoat for poor performance is dismissed. Productivity figures show how foreign trade and debt can be efficiently managed. Overall, trade must be encouraged worldwide. Low‐wage countries will inevitably compete and cannot ethically be ignored. The subsidy debate heats up as the EU agricultural policy ends and the USA extends Farm Aid. Regardless, EU members must focus on sustainable development. The low birthrate in the Old Europe means social policy should be reformed to encourage families to have children and allow selective immigration to meet labour needs. The implication is that France – Europe in general – must review the EU mission and structure. The French president seems to be headed in this direction. In future research, demographics must be monitored to make social and economic plans for the working lives of our youth and retirement of our seniors.

Originality/value

This paper will interest economists, politicians and policy‐makers, especially those unaware of the role of demographics in productivity and planning.

Details

Foresight, vol. 9 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2006

Michel Godet and Philippe Durance

This paper aims to explore the links between demographics and economics and to show how European institutions (like the European Commission) and European policies are

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore the links between demographics and economics and to show how European institutions (like the European Commission) and European policies are slowly but surely taking into account these fundamental relations.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper demonstrates the bases of the productivity gap between Europe, especially France, and the USA, by comparing GDP per active worker adjusted with the employment rate. In order to compare the level of wealth, the paper suggests using potential GDP per capita, taking into account the labor effort measured by the number of hours worked.

Findings

There can be no sustainable development without children. In comparison with the USA, Europe has a demographic deficit that is probably greater than any technology gap. All of Europe has discovered that there can be no growth without cradles and that gray hair will probably lead to soft growth. Given that the active population of the Europe of 25 will decrease by more than 20 million people between 2010 and 2030, increased immigration and successful integration of newcomers through more flexible public and family policies are needed.

Originality/value

This paper constitutes an appeal for more research about the links between demographics and economic growth, especially about the existence of a “demographic multiplier”, considering that development is the result of investment not only in technologies, but also in human capital.

Details

Foresight, vol. 8 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 1947

R.B. Heywood

It is well known that notches have a deleterious influence on the fatigue strength of parts. A constant, the sensitivity index, is commonly used to relate the fatigue…

Abstract

It is well known that notches have a deleterious influence on the fatigue strength of parts. A constant, the sensitivity index, is commonly used to relate the fatigue stress concentration factor to the elastic stress concentration factor. The author outlines a simpler hypothesis, which he claims to be a more reliable guide to fatigue behaviour in notches. Briefly it assumes that the elastic stress concentration factor gives the reduction in the fatigue strength due to the notch, but because of the local nature of the stress concentration, the endurance limit is increased according to a simple law. This increase in the fatigue strength depends on the smallness of the notch.

Details

Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, vol. 19 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-2667

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