Search results

This chapter examines the performance persistence evidences of pension fund managers who managed the constituent equity funds included in Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) schemes over the period 2001–2004. Nonparametric two-way contingency table and parametric OLS regression analysis are employed to evaluate performance persistence. The evidence suggests that the raw returns, traditional Jensen alphas, and conditional Jensen alphas in the previous year possess predictive abilities. When the funds are classified into high-volatile and low-volatile samples, the high-volatile funds are found to possess stronger performance persistence. Neither hot-hand nor cold-hand phenomena are found in the equity funds managed by same investment manager.

This paper focuses on the proliferation of empirical measures of competitive balance arising from its multi-dimensionality (i.e. win dispersion versus performance persistence), and the increasing complexity and specificity of league structures. This has led to significant inconsistencies in the assessments of competitive balance, rendering it difficult to derive policy recommendations.

The authors extend previous empirical studies of the four North American major leagues (i.e. MLB, NFL, NBA and NHL) using six competitive balance measures to (1) compare changes in competitive balance over the period 1960–2019; (2) to investigate the degree to which win dispersion and performance persistence move in the same direction; and (3) to explore the extent to which competitive balance has changed across facility construction eras and regulatory regimes.

The authors find that the assessment of competitive balance is both metric-dependent and time-dependent, reinforcing the importance of using a portfolio of measures rather than a single metric. The findings also highlight the importance of understanding the dispersion-persistence relationship.

The authors stress that leagues must be aware of a potential dispersion-persistence trade-off when intervening to improve competitive balance.

This study aims to examine the solvency and performance persistence of defined benefit private and public pension plans (DBPPs) in the Republic of Congo.

The authors use the 2 × 2 contingency table approach and the time product ratio (TPR)-based cross-product ratio (CPR) on data covering ten years from 2011 to 2020, with variable funded ratios and excess returns, to determine the solvency and performance persistence of defined benefit pension plans.

The authors document a lack of solvency and performance persistence in DBPP funds. They conclude that the solvency and performance of DBPP funds are not repetitive. The previous year's private and public defined benefit pension funds’ results do not repeat in the current year. Hence, the current solvency and performance of defined benefit pension funds are not good predictors of future funds' solvency and performance.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to combine solvency and performance to examine the persistence of defined benefit pension plans in sub-Saharan Africa.

Focusing on the important representative of firm intellectual capital (IC), this research explores the effects of chief executive officer’s (CEOs') managerial human capitals on sustaining superior performance in Chinese transition economy to prove the dynamic and strategic value of IC and fulfill the gap of lacking emerging market studies in this research field.

Based on dynamic managerial capability theoretical framework, the authors propose a dynamic management path to analyze the influencing mechanism of CEOs' managerial human capitals to firm performance persistence and the moderating effect of environment uncertainty. Using a panel data of Chinese publicly listed firms from 2008 to 2017, it adopts dynamic first-order autoregressive models to examine these hypotheses. Several tests are conducted to further analyze and ensure that the results are robust and reliable.

These managerial human capitals reveal heterogenous impacts on sustaining superior performance, and environment uncertainty is a valid moderating variable to further distinguish their dynamic values. The supplementary analyses show the integrating effect of an MBA degree and output functional experience is positive and significant, and the results in Chinese state-owned and private firm subsamples are distinct.

It is beneficial for corporate stakeholders to judge and select CEOs and for policymakers to improve the efficiency advantage of IC in Chinese emerging market.

This study first explores the relationship between CEOs' managerial human capitals and superior performance persistence. Through introducing a dynamic perspective, it has extended existing performance persistence research into individual level and provided a new intellectual source of sustainable competitive advantages.

This paper aims to study manipulation and performance persistence in equity mutual funds. To this end, Manipulation-Proof Performance Measure (MPPM) and Doubt Ratio, along with a number of current performance measures are used to evaluate the performance of equity mutual funds in Iran.

The authors investigate performance manipulation by 1) comparing the results of the MPPM with the current performance measures, 2) checking the Doubt Ratio to detect suspicious funds. Additionally, the authors investigate performance persistence by forming and evaluating portfolios of the equity mutual funds at several time horizons.

The authors conclude that there is no evidence of performance manipulation in the equity mutual funds. Additionally, when comparing the performance of the upper (top) tertile portfolios and the lower tertile portfolios, in all of the studied 1, 3, 6 and 12-month horizons, the authors find performance persistence in the equity mutual funds.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first study to investigate the performance manipulation in the Iranian equity mutual funds, and also is the first study in Iran that uses the MPPM and the Doubt Ratio in addition to a number of current performance measures to investigate the performance persistence in the equity mutual funds at several time horizons.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of Greek equity mutual funds for the period 2012-2016, analyzing further the selectivity and market timing ability, and short-term performance persistence for the period 2015-2016.

Utilizing a survivorship-bias-controlled sample of 25 funds and daily data, the authors use single-index (Jensen, 1968) and multi-factor (Carhart, 1997) models to evaluate risk-adjusted returns using the General Index of Athens Stock Exchange as a benchmark. The Treynor-Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson-Merton (1981) models are used to assess the stock selection and market timing abilities of fund managers. In order to investigate short-term performance persistence, the authors implement a variety of parametric (Bollen and Busse, 2005) and nonparametric tests (Malkiel, 1995; Brown and Goetzmann, 1995; Kahn and Rudd, 1995).

Results show that the funds underperformed the General Index, mainly due to the managers’ market timing inability. Furthermore, weak evidence for short-term performance persistence has been documented.

Checking for performance persistence, it was impossible to rank funds and form deciles according to their estimated abnormal returns, as in Bollen and Busse (2005), due to the small number of mutual funds operating in Greece.

Empirical studies regarding the performance of Greek equity mutual funds are still limited. Therefore, this paper intends to fill this gap by providing further evidence of performance evaluation.

The purpose of this paper is to address the problem of designing league regulatory mechanisms given the multi-dimensionality of competitive balance and the proliferation of empirical measures.

A three-stage approach is adopted. Firstly, a taxonomy of empirical measures of competitive balance is proposed, identifying two fundamental dimensions – win dispersion and performance persistence. Secondly, a simple two-team model of league competitive balance is used to explore the dispersion–persistence relationship. Third, correlation and regression analysis of seven empirical measures of competitive balance for the 18 best-attended top-tier domestic football leagues in Europe over the 10 seasons, 2008–2017, are used to (1) validate the proposed categorisation of empirical measures into two dimensions; and (2) investigate the nature of the dispersion–persistence relationship across leagues.

The simple model of league competitive balance implies a strong positive dispersion–persistence relationship when persistence effects increase for big-market teams relative to those for the small-market teams. However, the empirical evidence indicates that while leagues such as the Spanish La Liga exhibit a strong positive dispersion–persistence relationship, other leagues show little or no relationship, and some leagues, particularly, the English Premier League and top-tier divisions in Belgium and Netherlands, have a strong negative dispersion–persistence relationship. The key policy implication for leagues is the importance of understanding the direction and impact of dispersion and persistence effects on the demand for league products.

The variability in the strength and direction of the dispersion–persistence relationship across leagues is an important result that undermines the “one-size-fits-all” approach to designing league regulatory mechanisms.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of Greek equity mutual funds and the persistence in annual performance for the period 2008-2017 by using a variety of performance models.

Using all the available funds in operation and daily data, the authors apply single-index (Jensen, 1968) and multi-factor models (Fama and French, 1993; Carhart, 1997) to measure risk-adjusted returns. To assess performance persistence, a series of parametric (Bollen and Busse, 2005) and nonparametric tests (Malkiel, 1995; Brown and Goetzmann, 1995; Kahn and Rudd, 1995) is implemented.

Results show that the Greek equity mutual funds perform, on average, worse than the market index, irrespective of the performance measure applied, and the estimations obtained by the models are similar. Few managers that followed large-cap strategies, pursued stocks with high book-to-market value ratio and eliminated their exposure to the momentum effect were able to add value to their portfolios. Furthermore, a winner-picking strategy based on sustained superior performers is questioned. However, assigning fund returns to the corresponding risk factors results in the partial disappearance of persistence in performance.

The sample period includes the turbulent period, following the introduction of capital controls, which affected capital flows significantly. Moreover, the application of multiple performance measures enables us to investigate performance persistence in a wider spectrum.

The study systematically investigates persistence in performance for simulated trading among non-professional traders in the futures market.

In this study, the authors employ a novel data set from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group's Trading Challenges for years 2014 through 2018 and expand upon the empirical methodology of Malkiel (1995) through improved interval estimations in testing for persistence in performance. The authors implement Fama-MacBeth style regressions to understand the degree of persistence in performance and the extent to which non-professionals extrapolate from prior returns. They adjust returns for risk through the Fama and French (2015) five-factor model in understanding whether the sample of non-professionals is able to produce excess returns after expenses and whether there is evidence of excess gross to cover expenses.

The empirical analysis suggests strong evidence for performance persistence among non-professionals participating in the Preliminary Rounds. In the Championship Rounds, the authors find that the persistence effect becomes stronger in economic and statistical significance after accounting for expenses. The results suggest that competition and transaction costs help to distinguish between winners and losers. When conducting Fama-MacBeth style regressions, the authors present evidence that strongly supports the persistence effect and over-extrapolation. While the results of the multi-factor model analysis suggest that, after adjusting for risk, most teams are experiencing negative excess returns prior to expenses, the authors also uncover evidence of teams earning returns sufficient to cover their expenses.

The authors bridge the gap between the literature on performance persistence and the emerging literature on non-professionals in the financial markets. Data from the CME Group’s Trading Challenge provide a rich source in studying the beliefs of non-professionals, and this study is helpful for understanding how beliefs, operationalized in simulated trades, perform over short time horizons, thereby providing insights into the behavioral dynamics of the financial markets. The results provide new empirical evidence for performance persistence among non-professionals.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of 191 equity unit trusts in an emerging market, South Africa over the period from February 2006 to January 2016, which captures different market conditions (pre-global financial crisis, crisis and recovery periods). Besides testing for managerial ability, both cross-sectional regression and the non-parametric rank correlation test are used to test whether the performance generated by unit trusts does persist.

To evaluate the managerial ability of portfolio managers, two widely used methods, the Treynor-Mazuy (1966) model and Henriksson-Merton (1981) model, are employed. Both models test whether portfolio managers have stock selection and market timing ability. The cross-sectional regression and the rank correlation test are implemented which account for both parametric and non-parametric approaches of persistence testing, respectively.

Weak evidence of stock selection as well as market timing ability was found. Moreover, most of the unit trusts are reported to have insignificant coefficients. When testing for performance persistence using returns, the Sharpe ratio and the Sortino ratio as performance metrics, the overall results also revealed weak evidence of persistence that is equally spread across winning and losing funds.

While research on unit trusts’ performance has been conducted in emerging economies, little has been done in testing for managerial ability in general and in South Africa in particular. Moreover, the research tends to focus more on one class – Equity General. This paper extends the performance literature by testing whether portfolio managers in the South African equity unit trusts industry have stock selection and market timing ability.