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Book part
Publication date: 2 August 2007

Guus Berkhout, Patrick van der Duin, Dap Hartmann and Roland Ortt

The duration of an innovation process, from new idea to new business, may take many years. This makes it necessary to incorporate a vision of the future. The Cyclic…

Abstract

The duration of an innovation process, from new idea to new business, may take many years. This makes it necessary to incorporate a vision of the future. The Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM) shows that aspects such as multiplicity (looking at multi-fold futures) and multidimensionality (looking at different aspects of the future) should be taken into account. Looking at the different actors involved in CIM, the future should be researched with an open mind (meaning that the transition path to the future should be kept wide open) and different time horizons should be taken into account.

Details

The Cyclic Nature of Innovation: Connecting Hard Sciences with Soft Values
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-433-1

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Book part
Publication date: 2 August 2007

Guus Berkhout, Patrick van der Duin, Dap Hartmann and Roland Ortt

In the telecommunication industry we observe trends such as unbundling, convergence, and new business models. To accelerate innovation, mobile telecommunication companies…

Abstract

In the telecommunication industry we observe trends such as unbundling, convergence, and new business models. To accelerate innovation, mobile telecommunication companies are more and more working together with companies from other industrial sectors (such as media and IT). The Cyclic Innovation Model helps to understand all those activities in this rather chaotic business environment. This particularly applies to mobile telecommunication companies that are developing mobile data innovations (such as Lucio). All those innovations are steps along a transition path towards a wireless future.

Details

The Cyclic Nature of Innovation: Connecting Hard Sciences with Soft Values
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-433-1

To view the access options for this content please click here
Book part
Publication date: 2 August 2007

Abstract

Details

The Cyclic Nature of Innovation: Connecting Hard Sciences with Soft Values
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-433-1

To view the access options for this content please click here
Book part
Publication date: 2 August 2007

Guus Berkhout, Patrick van der Duin, Dap Hartmann and Roland Ortt

In order to understand today's innovation models, we need to look at the historical development of these models. This chapter describes the succession of the R&D…

Abstract

In order to understand today's innovation models, we need to look at the historical development of these models. This chapter describes the succession of the R&D management generations and discusses the innovation models in each generation (Section 2). The shortcomings of these models and the requirements for improved versions are summarized in Section 3. In Section 4, we will explain why new models of innovation should be circular and multi-layered.

Details

The Cyclic Nature of Innovation: Connecting Hard Sciences with Soft Values
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-433-1

To view the access options for this content please click here
Book part
Publication date: 2 August 2007

Guus Berkhout, Patrick van der Duin, Dap Hartmann and Roland Ortt

Donald Stokes’ approach to map the names of prominent scientists onto adiagram showing their impact on fundamental science and applied science is adopted and expanded to…

Abstract

Donald Stokes’ approach to map the names of prominent scientists onto adiagram showing their impact on fundamental science and applied science is adopted and expanded to illustrate the dynamic interactions of the four nodes of the Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM). Tagging names of prototypical role models onto the four nodes and cycles of CIM increases the meta-level understanding of the fundamental concepts depicted by this innovation model. It also serves as a tool to validate the completeness of the model.

Details

The Cyclic Nature of Innovation: Connecting Hard Sciences with Soft Values
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-433-1

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Article
Publication date: 29 August 2008

Patrick van der Duin

This paper aims to describe three major difficulties with dealing with the future.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to describe three major difficulties with dealing with the future.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper is an essay with limited use of literature.

Findings

Looking to the future is difficult due to cognitive, social, business problems.

Research limitations/implications

No empirical research was conducted.

Practical implications

Suggests that more practical training in futures research and testing ideas and plans against future trends is required.

Originality/value

The paper provides a broad view on difficulties of dealing with the future.

Details

Foresight, vol. 10 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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Book part
Publication date: 2 August 2007

Guus Berkhout, Patrick van der Duin, Dap Hartmann and Roland Ortt

The Cyclic Innovation Model is applied to a new process for the production of fine chemicals and pharmaceuticals using a combination of ionic liquids and supercritical…

Abstract

The Cyclic Innovation Model is applied to a new process for the production of fine chemicals and pharmaceuticals using a combination of ionic liquids and supercritical carbon dioxide. This multi-value innovation combines economic growth with environmental concerns and social value. The most important obstacles in the implementation of this new technology are the successful life cycle management of current production plants, the linearity of current innovation thinking, and a perceived high risk of adoption.

Details

The Cyclic Nature of Innovation: Connecting Hard Sciences with Soft Values
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-433-1

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Article
Publication date: 17 April 2007

Patrick van der Duin and Ida Sabelis

This paper seeks to evaluate future studies in order to improve futures research.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper seeks to evaluate future studies in order to improve futures research.

Design/methodology/approach

Case studies were researched.

Findings

The current study of the future carried out by the Dutch Innovation Platform (responsible for innovation policy) resembles an old‐fashioned utopism whereas a study conducted in 1977 by the Dutch Council for Government Policy yields very interesting results.

Research limitations/implications

Only two case studies have been researched.

Practical implications

Lessons learned or the evaluation of former studies of the future can be very interesting and supportive but one must be aware that they are not golden rules for doing futures research in the future itself.

Originality/value

Although futures researchers often look back at other studies of the future it remains an important activity in improving futures research.

Details

Foresight, vol. 9 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 31 August 2010

Patrick van der Duin and Rob de Graaf

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the future‐orientation of the Dutch innovation system and formulate recommendations to improve it.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the future‐orientation of the Dutch innovation system and formulate recommendations to improve it.

Design/methodology/approach

The approach takes the form of in‐depth interviews with Dutch experts who are sufficiently independent to formulate relevant, interesting, and deviating opinions.

Findings

Dutch managers are quite reluctant to look at the future. They seem to favor the short term above the long term.

Research limitations/implications

Consulting additional experts might yield more and more validated results.

Practical implications

Dutch companies should do more about turning a future vision into concrete decisions and actions.

Social implications

It is necessary to appoint a specific Minister for Innovation and the Dutch government should support the entire innovation process and not just the beginning.

Originality/value

This is the first analysis of the future‐orientation of the Dutch innovation system.

Details

Foresight, vol. 12 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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Book part
Publication date: 2 August 2007

Guus Berkhout, Patrick van der Duin, Dap Hartmann and Roland Ortt

The ability to predict the market potential of product concepts at an early stage is of great importance to many organizations. In terms of Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM)…

Abstract

The ability to predict the market potential of product concepts at an early stage is of great importance to many organizations. In terms of Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM), this activity occurs in the lower right part of the cycle. Standard approaches to predict the market potential like concept testing and need assessment, and the assumptions that are required to use these methods will be described in Section 2. A problem is that these assumptions are usually not met in the case of products based on breakthrough technologies. Alternative approaches will be described in Section 3. How market analysis can benefit from using CIM will be discussed in the last section.

Details

The Cyclic Nature of Innovation: Connecting Hard Sciences with Soft Values
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-433-1

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