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In recent years patents have become a very popular data source for forecasting technological changes. However, since a vast amount of patents are “worthless” (Moore, 2005), there is a need to identify the promising ones. For this purpose, previous approaches have mainly used bibliographic data, thus neglecting the benefits of textual data, such as instant accessibility at patent disclosure. To leverage these benefits, this study aims to develop an approach that uses textual patent data for predicting promising patents.

For the identification of promising patents, the authors propose a novel approach which combines link prediction with textual patent data. Thereby the authors are able to predict the emergence of hitherto unmentioned bigrams. By mapping these future bigrams to recent patents, the authors are able to distinguish between promising and nonpromising patents. To validate this approach, the authors apply the methodology to the case example of camera technology.

The authors identify stochastic gradient descent as a suitable algorithm with both a receiver operating characteristic area under curve score and a positive predictive value of 78%, which outperforms chance by a factor of two. In addition, the authors present promising camera patents for diverse application fields, such as cameras for surgical systems, cameras for rearview vision systems in vehicles or light amplification by stimulated emission of radiation detection and ranging cameras for three-dimensional imaging.

This study contributes in at least three directions to scholarship. First, the authors introduce a novel approach by combining link prediction with textual patent analysis and, in this way, leverage the benefits of both worlds. Second, the authors add to all theories that regard novel technologies as a recombination of existing technologies in presenting word combinations from textual data as a suitable instrument for revealing recombination in patents. And third, the approach can be used by scholars as a complementary or even integrative tool with conventional forecasting methods like the Delphi technique or Scenario planning.

At least three practical implications arise from the study. First, incumbent firms of a technology branch can use this approach as an early-warning system to identify technological change and to identify opportunities related to their company’s technological competence and provide inspiration for new ideas. Second, companies seeking to tap into new markets may also be interested in the approach as managers could anticipate whether their company’s technological competences are in line with upcoming trends. Third, the approach may be used as a supportive tool for various purposes, such as investment decisions or technology life cycle analysis.

The approach introduces textual patent data as suitable means for forecasting activities. As the statistical validation reveals, the promising patents identified by the approach are cited significantly more often than patents with less promising prospects.

Defining and validating a map of related technologies is critical for managers, investors and inventors. Because of the increase in the applications of and demand for semiconductor lasers, analyzing the technological position of developers has become increasingly critical. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to adopt the technological position analysis to identify mainstream technologies and developments relevant to semiconductor lasers.

Correspondence analysis and k-means cluster analysis, which are data mining techniques, are used to reveal strategic groups of major competitors in the semiconductor laser market according to their Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) patent applications.

The results of this study reveal that PCT patent applications are generally obtained for masers, optical elements, semiconductor devices and methods for measuring and that technology developers have varying technological positions.

Through position analysis, this study identifies the technological focuses of different manufacturers to obtain information that can guide the allocation of research and development resources.

This paper aims to map the evolution of hydrogen-based technologies (HBTs) by examining the patenting activity associated to these technlogies from 1930 to 2020. In doing so, the study provides a novel perspective on the development of HBTs and offers implications for managers and policymakers.

We collected patent data at the level of patent families (PFs). Our sample includes 317,089 PFs related to hydrogen production and 62,496 PFs to hydrogen storage. We examined PF data to delineate the state of the art and major technical advancements of HBTs.

Our analysis provides evidence of an increasing patenting activity in the area of HBTs, hence suggesting relatively high levels of expectations on the economic potential of these technologies. US and Japan hold the largest proportion of PFs related to HBTs (about 60%), while European applicants hold the highest proportion of highly cited PFs (about 60%). While firms represent the applicant with the highest share of PFs, our analysis reveals that firms holding HBT PFs are primarily from the chemical sector.

While our analysis is limited to examining patent data which capture some aspects of the innovation activity around HBTs (namelly, patented inventions), our study enriches existing literature by performinng a patent analysis on a much larger sample of data when compared to previous studies.

Two main implications emerge from our study. Firstly, there seems to be an urgent need to support the emergence of a dominant design so as to facilitate the consolidation and diffusion of the HBTs, hence the transition to a more sustainable energy production. Secondly, the majority of HBT PFs are held by a small number of countries. This, in turn, suggests opportunities to develop cross-country cooperation (e.g. international agreements, research and technology offices) to support the development and adoption of HBTs globally.

Considering the results obtained in this study, from a social point of view, the attention that organizations have paid to hydrogen related technologies is evident. This suggests that the development HBTs can function as a social enabler for a sustianable energy transition.

Extant research has focused on the individual components of the hydrogen chain. As a result, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the progress made in the area of HBTs. To address this gap, this study examined HBTs by focusing on both production and storage technologies since their initial developments, hence adopting an observation period of about 70 years.

Robots are widely used in industrial manufacturing and service industries around the world. However, most of the previous studies on industrial robots use data at the national or industry level in the context of developed countries. This study examines the impact of imported industrial robots on firm innovation at the firm level in China.

Drawing on a large dataset of more than three million records in China, including non-publicly traded small and medium firms, the authors adopt a difference-in-differences method to investigate the impact and channels of industrial robots on firm innovation.

The authors find that the application of industrial robots increases firm innovation. Two possible channels are identified through which robots promote innovation: alleviation of financial constraints and the improvement of human capital. Further analysis shows that the effect of robots on innovation is more pronounced for firms that are highly dependent on external financing, belong to high-tech industries, import high-end robots, have insufficient supply of skilled labor and private firms (non-SOEs). The authors also find that industrial robots increase the firms' innovation quality and the marginal contribution of innovation to firms' total factor productivity.

This study provides big data evidence of the unintended positive consequences of industrial robots on firm innovation. The results are helpful to clarify the controversy of industrial robots. It also has important implications for government industrial policy making, firm innovation and human resource management.

This research outlines the technological structure of the entire Japanese manufacturing and service industry using the patent information from research and development (R&D) activities to set R&D goals.

By analyzing the technological development capability of individual companies, the direction of the companies' R&D activities and current state of technological fusion between them can be understood. A group of companies participating in a particular product/service market must have the same technological development capabilities. As a result, the ratio of patent applications by a company to the total number of applications in a technical field will be similar across companies. This study uses the inter-company correlation coefficient of the ratio of patent applications by technical field as an index of technological development capability. A total of 167 major companies covering the major industries of Japan were analyzed. The analysis period was 15 years from 2004 to 2018, and the technical fields were rearranged to 42 fields with reference to the International Patent Classification (IPC)-Technology Concordance used by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). Considering the fluctuation in patent application opportunities, the number of patent applications was collected for at least three years for the analysis of patent applications by technical field, company and industry.

Examining the entire Japanese industry, the research found that chemicals, ceramics, non-ferrous metals and electrical/electronic equipment act as intermediaries between the respective groups and are linked to the transportation equipment, electrical/electronic equipment and information and communication services industries that are currently driving the Japanese economy. However, the technical connections between these groups are relatively loose. Over the last 15 years, the propagation structure of technical knowledge information has not changed. The progress of technological fusion remains within the scope of commerce and is conditioned by commerce.

Studies focusing on the technological development capability between companies and the technological structure of the Japanese manufacturing and service industries are almost non-existent since 2000 when Japan's economic growth slowed. The analytical methods presented in this research can be applied to individual companies to gain an understanding of technical positions of companies and can be useful for planning a technical environment, business or R&D strategy.

With the growing climate problem, it has become a consensus to develop low-carbon technologies to reduce emissions. Electric industry is a major carbon-emitting industry, accounting for 35% of global carbon emissions. Universities, as an important patent application sector in China, promote their patent application and transformation to enhance Chinese technological innovation capability. This study aims to analyze low-carbon electricity technology transformation in Chinese universities.

This paper uses IncoPat to collect patent data. The trend of low-carbon electricity technology patent applications in Chinese universities, the status, patent technology distribution, patent transformation status and patent transformation path of valid patent is analyzed.

Low-carbon electricity technology in Chinese universities has been promoted, and the number of patents has shown rapid growth. Invention patents proportion is increasing, and the transformation has become increasingly active. Low-carbon electricity technology in Chinese universities is mainly concentrated in individual cooperative patent classification (CPC) classification numbers, and innovative technologies will be an important development for electric reduction.

This paper innovatively uses valid patents to study the development of low-carbon electricity technology in Chinese universities, and defines low-carbon technology patents by CPC patent classification system. A new attempt focuses on the development status and direction in low-carbon electricity technology in Chinese universities, and highlights the contribution of valid patents to patent value.

This study aims to identify the various economic and non-economic determinants of renewable energy consumption (REC) in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Due to the adverse effect of carbon emission on the environment, every country is trying for a transition from fossil fuel towards renewable energy. Renewable energy plays a crucial role in reducing carbon emission and combating climate change. Understanding the determinants that influence REC helps to promote this transition.

The study is based on an unbalanced panel data over the period 2002–2019 for all five BRICS nations. The panel corrected standard error (PCSE) method has been adopted to examine the determinants of REC.

Industrialization, population growth and foreign direct investment (FDI) are found to be significant economic determinants of REC while patent on environmental technologies, political instability and industrial design are significant non-economic determinants of REC in the BRICS nations.

The findings imply that to increase REC in BRICS nations, policymakers should incentivize industries for investments in renewable energy, attract FDI aligned with environmental regulations, raise population awareness through training, enforce industrial design standards, establish fair technology transfer frameworks to overcome patent barriers and create stable, long-term renewable energy policies with risk mitigation instruments to address political instability.

The study captures the effect of patents on environmental technologies and industrial design on the consumption of renewable energy. Thus, the novelty lies in investigating unexplored variables in the previous literature likely to affect REC.

Competitively multipolar international system demands bilateral and multilateral partnerships. Joint innovation signals close partnerships. Regional proximity of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) to the European Union (EU) defines its research and development objectives. These objectives are additionally subjected to the USA’s geopolitical strategy in this geographical area. Hence, CEE’s limited resources require limited resources make international innovation cooperation. This paper aims to analyse whether and how CEE countries make international innovation cooperation decisions.

This paper used Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) database of total patent applications filed to the patent cooperation treaty (PCT) with co-applicants from abroad, where co-patents with at least one foreign inventor present a measure of international innovation partnership. A vector autoregression analysis and impulse response function were used to analyse international innovation partnership choices of eight CEE OECD countries for the period 1990–2018.

Innovation with the EU is of collaborative nature, commonly displaying complementary properties with the rest of the examined innovation partners, while co-patenting with the Russia and China act as substitutes or complements. Co-patenting with Russia is the most versatile, displaying both properties of collaboration and competition. Some countries exhibit complementarity in co-patenting activities with multiple partners. The significance levels of these relationships vary, indicating varying degrees of impact. Overall, these findings highlight the complex dynamics of co-patenting activities and the influence of different partners on countries’ collaborative innovation strategies.

In addition to significant relationships, insignificant relationships as well as those that could bring about greater synergy are flagged in the paper. Those relationships portray possible direction into which national funds could be channelled to incite cooperation between different sectors and countries, especially as innovation partnerships are not always successful and require a long time period to materialise.

By examining bilateral innovation partnerships, this study provides an insight into the strategic political and economic spheres of influence in the CEE region.

Digital transformation (DT) is among the vital factors contributing to innovation ambidexterity, especially for advanced manufacturing firms (AMFs). However, the empirical studies on the relationship between DT and innovation ambidexterity in AMFs from the perspective of knowledge management are inadequate. Therefore, this study aims to systematically analyze the impact of DT on innovation ambidexterity and its mechanism of action.

This study selects 254 listed firms within the ten key areas of “Made in China 2025,” as they occupy a key position in China’s advanced manufacturing system. Based on the knowledge-based view (KBV) and contingency theory, it constructs a model of the influence mechanism of DT on innovation ambidexterity.

The results show that the DT of AMFs positively influence innovation ambidexterity. External pressure from environmental turbulence enhances the positive relationship between DT and innovation ambidexterity, demonstrating the “resilience effect,” external knowledge search (EKS) and broadening the knowledge base mediating roles between them, highlighting the “accumulation effect.”

By identifying this mediation mechanism of DT and innovation ambidexterity, this study provides new ideas for path research on the KBV. Moreover, this study explores the triggering effect of market environmental turbulence on the DT of firms. It reveals the boundary conditions of DT acting on innovation ambidexterity, expands the research perspective on organizational resilience and enriches the theory of power change.

The main purpose of this paper is to explore whether the nature of innovation is accumulative or radical and to what extent past year accumulation of technology stock can predict future innovation. More importantly, the authors are concerned with whether a change of policy regime or a variance in the quality of technology will moderate the nature of innovation.

The authors examined a dataset of 3.6 million Chinese patents during 1985–2015 and constructed more than 5 million citation pairs across 8 sections and 128 classes to track knowledge spillover across technology fields. The authors used this citation dataset to calculate the technology innovation network. The authors constructed a measure of upstream invention, interacting the pre-existing technology innovation network with historical patent growth in each technology field, and estimated measure's impact on future innovation since 2005. The authors also constructed three sets of metrics – technology dependence, centrality and scientific value – to identify innovation quality and a policy dummy to consider the impact of policy on innovation.

Innovation growth is built upon past year accumulation and technology spillover. Innovation grows faster for technologies that are more central and grows more slowly for more valuable technologies. A pro-innovation and pro-intellectual property right (IPR) policy plays a positive and significant role in driving technical progress. The authors also found that for technologies that have faster access to new information or larger power to control knowledge flow, the upstream and downstream innovation linkage is stronger. However, this linkage is weaker for technologies that are more novel or general. On most occasions, the nature of innovation was less responsive to policy shock.

This paper contributes to the debate on the nature of innovation by determining whether upstream innovation has strong predictive power on future innovation. The authors develop the assumption used in the technology spillover literature by considering a time-variant, directional and asymmetric matrix to model technology diffusion. For the first time, the authors answer how the nature of innovation will vary depending on the technology network configurations and policy environment. In addition to contributing to the academic debate, the authors' study has important implications for economic growth and industrial or innovation management policies.