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Article
Publication date: 10 April 2017

Mohammad Tariqul Islam Khan, Siow-Hooi Tan and Lee-Lee Chong

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationships among perception of past portfolio returns, optimism and financial decisions.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationships among perception of past portfolio returns, optimism and financial decisions.

Design/methodology/approach

The relationships are examined using a data set of both retail and institutional investors in Malaysia and estimated using ordinary least square regression.

Findings

The results demonstrate that perception of past portfolio returns influences both retail and institutional investors’ trading and risk taking. Optimism measured as relative investment optimism and personal investment optimism similarly influences both groups of investors’ financial decisions. However, perception of past portfolio returns causes only retail investors to exhibit optimism. The results furthermore show that only for retail investors perception of past portfolio returns indirectly influences financial decisions, through the mediating channel of optimism.

Practical implications

The findings on the influences of perception of past portfolio returns and the mediating channel in decision process help to understand the differences between retail and institutional investors. Retail investors are found to be more susceptible to optimism. Therefore, regulators in Malaysia may enhance their initiatives by incorporating the peril of forming optimistic expectations in financial decisions, by giving special focus on retail investors.

Originality/value

This paper focuses on investors’ perception of past portfolio returns and its influence on various financial decisions, unlike past portfolio returns or market returns. Also, this paper is among the first to demonstrate the mediating channel of optimism in investors’ decision process.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 9 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 4 April 2024

Yan He, Ruixiang Jiang, Yanchu Wang and Hongquan Zhu

We form portfolios based on return and liquidity and examine the effects of liquidity and other risk factors on asset pricing in the Chinese stock market. Our results show that…

Abstract

We form portfolios based on return and liquidity and examine the effects of liquidity and other risk factors on asset pricing in the Chinese stock market. Our results show that the past loser-and-illiquid stock portfolios tend to outperform the past winner-and-liquid stock portfolios in the 1–12 months holding period. The excess return is significantly associated with the market-wide liquidity factor even when we control the three Fama-French and momentum factors. Cross-sectionally, the liquidity beta significantly affects the excess return even with control of other risk betas and other traditional liquidity proxies.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-865-2

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 September 2007

Michael E. Drew, Madhu Veeraraghavan and Min Ye

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the profitability of momentum investment strategy and the predictive power of trading volume for equities listed in the Australian…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the profitability of momentum investment strategy and the predictive power of trading volume for equities listed in the Australian Stock Exchange.

Design/methodology/approach

Following the Lee and Swaminathan's approach, portfolios on past returns and past trading volume is constructed. In this approach, all stocks are ranked independently on the basis of past returns and past trading volume. The stocks are then assigned to one of five portfolios based on past returns and one of three portfolios based on trading volume over the same period.

Findings

A strong momentum effect for the Australian market during the period 1988 through 2002 is observed. Further, momentum plays an important role in providing information about stocks. Past trading volume appears to predict both the magnitude and persistence of price momentum.

Research limitations/implications

Substantial momentum observed in monthly stock returns has investment implications. Abnormal returns vary from 0.3 to 7 per cent per month in the intermediate horizon.

Originality/value

This study provides an out of sample evidence by examining the relationship between “trading volume” (measured by the turnover ratio) and “momentum” strategies in an Australian setting.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 33 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 August 2022

Le Quy Duong and Philippe Bertrand

Although the solid empirical proof of momentum is documented in various stock markets, there are many debates among academics with respect to the source of momentum profit. The…

Abstract

Purpose

Although the solid empirical proof of momentum is documented in various stock markets, there are many debates among academics with respect to the source of momentum profit. The first aim of this paper is intensively re-examine the momentum profit in Vietnam, an important emerging market. Secondly, the authors study the return predictability of a measure of investors’ overreaction, then examine whether the momentum effect in Vietnam is explained by overreaction.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the weekly data of more than 300 non-financial Vietnamese stocks during 2009–2019, the authors build a measure of investors’ overreaction, which is based on trading volume and the sign of stock returns. Consequently, to investigate whether momentum exits after controlling for overreaction, the authors carefully compare trading strategies based on overreaction with price momentum strategies using adjusted returns and double sorts on past returns and levels of overreaction.

Findings

The article makes three main findings. Firstly, the authors discover the empirical evidence of momentum in the Vietnamese equity market. Secondly, the measure of overreaction could be a predictor of Vietnamese stock returns. Stocks that have experienced a stronger upward overreaction provide a higher average return. Finally, returns on trading strategies based on overreaction are robust after adjusting for momentum, while returns on momentum portfolios become insignificant after adjusting for overreaction. By double-sorting, the authors document that holding past returns constant, the average returns of portfolios rise monotonically with their measure of overreaction. Hence, the momentum profit in Vietnam arises from investors’ overreaction.

Originality/value

The paper extends previous research on the behavioral explanation of momentum in emerging stock markets, which has not been fully exploited in the literature.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 49 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 May 2011

Sanjay Sehgal and Sakshi Jain

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate if there are any momentum patterns in stock and sectoral returns and if they can be explained by the risk factors.

1103

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate if there are any momentum patterns in stock and sectoral returns and if they can be explained by the risk factors.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology involves portfolio generation based on company characteristics and short‐term prior return (six to 12 months). The characteristic‐sorted portfolios are then regressed on risk factors using one‐factor (CAPM) and multi‐factor model (Fama French model and four‐factor model involving three Fama French factors and an additional sectoral momentum factor).

Findings

The authors find momentum profits in Indian context for prior return portfolios which are stronger for 6‐6 compared to 12‐12 strategies. These momentum profits are larger for some characteristic‐sorted portfolios. Risk models such as CAPM and Fama French model fail to capture momentum profits. In fact, winner portfolios generally comprise large firm and high P/B stocks, thus defying the risk story. Some zero investment momentum‐based trading strategies do provide significant payoffs. The authors also observe momentum profits in sectoral returns. A part of stock momentum profits is captured by sectoral factor, thus implying that it may mainly be an outcome of sectoral momentum.

Research limitations/implications

The findings are pertinent for portfolio managers and investment analysts who are continuously in pursuit of trading strategies that provide extra normal returns. From an academic point of view, the authors suggest that sectoral factor should be used in the multi‐factor framework for explaining asset returns.

Originality/value

The study contributes to the asset pricing and behavioral literature from emerging markets.

Details

Journal of Advances in Management Research, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0972-7981

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 April 2009

Gilbert V. Nartea, Bert D. Ward and Hadrian G. Djajadikerta

This paper aims to confirm the existence of size, book to market (BM) and momentum effects in the New Zealand (NZ) stock market. It also aims to compare the performance of the…

4533

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to confirm the existence of size, book to market (BM) and momentum effects in the New Zealand (NZ) stock market. It also aims to compare the performance of the CAPM, the Fama‐French (FF) model, and Carhart's model in explaining the variation of stock returns.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper adapts the Fama and French methodology using a 2×3 size‐BM ratio sort. It also forms three portfolios based on past returns to verify the momentum effect.

Findings

The paper documents significant BM and momentum effects but a relatively weaker size effect. The paper finds some improvement in explanatory power provided by the FF model relative to the CAPM but it still leaves a large part of the variation in stock returns unexplained. The FF model is also unable to explain the strong momentum effect in New Zealand.

Practical implications

The findings imply that: cost of capital estimates would be more accurate using Carhart's model; portfolio managers can increase returns by investing in small and high BM firms that are recent winners; performance evaluation should take into account the size, BM, and momentum effects; and the existence of size and BM return premia appear to be rewards to risk bearing.

Originality/value

The existing literature testing the robustness of the FF model in markets outside the USA is sparse, especially in emerging markets, with most of these studies suffering from data problems. The NZ stock market provides an interesting setting for such a study because of its unique characteristics.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 5 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 February 2017

Supriya Maheshwari and Raj Singh Dhankar

The purpose of this paper is to provide insights into the profitability of momentum strategies in the Indian stock market. This study further evaluates whether the momentum effect…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide insights into the profitability of momentum strategies in the Indian stock market. This study further evaluates whether the momentum effect is a manifestation of size, value or an illiquidity effect.

Design/methodology/approach

Monthly stock return data of 470 BSE listed stocks over the sample period from January 1997 to March 2013 were used to create extreme portfolios (winner and loser). The returns of extreme portfolios were evaluated using t-statistics and a risk-adjusted measure. Further checks were imposed by controlling for other potential sources of risk including size, value and illiquidity.

Findings

The study provides support in favor of momentum profitability in the Indian stock market. In contrast to the literature, momentum profitability is driven by winning stocks, and hence, buying past winning stocks generates higher returns than shorting loosing stocks in the Indian stock market. Strong momentum profits were observed even after controlling for size, value and trading volume of stocks. This suggests that the momentum effect in the Indian stock market is not a manifestation of small size effect, value effect or an illiquidity effect.

Practical implications

From the practitioner’s perspective, the study indicates that a momentum-based investment strategy in the short run is still persistent and can generate potential profits in the Indian stock market.

Originality/value

There is little empirical evidence on the momentum profitability, especially in the Indian stock market. The study contributes toward the literature by analyzing the momentum profitability even after controlling for size, value and an illiquidity effect. Some aspects of the momentum effect were observed to be dissimilar from those observed in literature for the USA and other countries. Such findings justify the need for testing the momentum profitability in stock markets other than the USA.

Details

Journal of Advances in Management Research, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0972-7981

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 September 2012

James A. Sundali, Gregory R. Stone and Federico L. Guerrero

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a controlled experiment to examine the effect of goal setting and affect framed feedback on repeated asset allocation investment decisions.

1606

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a controlled experiment to examine the effect of goal setting and affect framed feedback on repeated asset allocation investment decisions.

Design/methodology/approach

The design of the experiment is a 2×2 between subject design. Subjects allocated monies among four investments for 20 periods. One manipulation varied whether subjects received performance feedback in the form of a happy or sad face, while another manipulation varied whether subjects set a financial goal for themselves and received goal attainment performance feedback.

Findings

The main findings include: subjects initially allocate assets in a manner roughly consistent with their stated preference for risk; prior year asset performance leads subjects to make significant changes in portfolio asset allocation in a manner consistent with beliefs of positive autocorrelation in asset returns; and the addition of happy or sad faces to performance feedback information leads to even greater changes in asset allocation.

Originality/value

Using ideas from the theory on the self‐regulation of behavior and the role of affect in decision making, the authors develop an original framework to account for the results.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 38 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 June 2018

Ajay Bhootra

The purpose of this paper is to examine the combined performance of momentum and a gross profitability-based strategy. The motivation stems from the strong performance of momentum…

1047

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the combined performance of momentum and a gross profitability-based strategy. The motivation stems from the strong performance of momentum on the short side and profitability on the long side, suggesting a potentially superior combined strategy. Gross profitability is also a measure of firm quality, so that another motivation is to contribute to a growing literature on factor-based investing that includes momentum and quality as potential factors.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical approach employed in the paper is standard in the asset pricing literature. The firms are sorted into portfolios based on profitability and momentum, and the combined performance is studied through independent double sorting. Both value-weighted and equally weighted returns are reported in case of key empirical results.

Findings

The combined strategy results in superior performance. Specifically, the strategy produces results 2.75 greater than the momentum strategy, and about four times as high as the profitability strategy. The strategy also has much higher Sharpe ratio that improves further when combined with size and value strategies.

Research limitations/implications

The research has significant implications for academics and practitioners alike. A new investment strategy that has not been explored in the literature is presented. The superior performance of the strategy presents a challenge for the market efficiency, and would be of interest to academics and practitioners working in the area of investment management.

Practical implications

There has been a growing interest in multi-factor investing in recent years. The paper documents that superior performance is achieved by combining two of the popular factors, namely profitability and momentum.

Originality/value

The research is the first to study the combined performance of profitability and momentum, and provide evidence on the superiority of the combined strategy.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 44 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 2016

Bin Liu, Amalia Di Iorio and Ashton De Silva

This paper aims to investigate whether idiosyncratic volatility is priced in returns of equity funds while controlling for fund size and return momentum.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate whether idiosyncratic volatility is priced in returns of equity funds while controlling for fund size and return momentum.

Design/methodology/approach

Following Fama and French (1993), an idiosyncratic volatility mimicking factor and a fund-size factor are constructed. The pricing ability of this idiosyncratic volatility mimicking factor is investigated in the context of Carhart (1997).

Findings

Idiosyncratic volatility is an important pricing factor even when controlling for fund size and momentum. In addition, idiosyncratic volatility is strongly and positively associated with the momentum effect. Further, when controlling for the association between the momentum effect and idiosyncratic volatility, the explanatory power of the momentum factor almost disappears, which suggests the pricing of idiosyncratic volatility mediates momentum and returns.

Originality/value

These findings imply that both the idiosyncratic volatility factor and the fund-size factor should not be ignored by fund managers when evaluating the performance of the equity funds.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 33 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

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