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We take Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) seriously by rigorously estimating structural models using the full set of CPT parameters. Much of the literature only estimates a subset of CPT parameters, or more simply assumes CPT parameter values from prior studies. Our data are from laboratory experiments with undergraduate students and MBA students facing substantial real incentives and losses. We also estimate structural models from Expected Utility Theory (EUT), Dual Theory (DT), Rank-Dependent Utility (RDU), and Disappointment Aversion (DA) for comparison. Our major finding is that a majority of individuals in our sample locally asset integrate. That is, they see a loss frame for what it is, a frame, and behave as if they evaluate the net payment rather than the gross loss when one is presented to them. This finding is devastating to the direct application of CPT to these data for those subjects. Support for CPT is greater when losses are covered out of an earned endowment rather than house money, but RDU is still the best single characterization of individual and pooled choices. Defenders of the CPT model claim, correctly, that the CPT model exists “because the data says it should.” In other words, the CPT model was borne from a wide range of stylized facts culled from parts of the cognitive psychology literature. If one is to take the CPT model seriously and rigorously then it needs to do a much better job of explaining the data than we see here.

We evaluate the hypothesis of temporal stability in risk preferences using two recent data sets from longitudinal lab experiments. Both experiments included a combination of decision tasks that allows one to identify a full set of structural parameters characterizing risk preferences under Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), including loss aversion. We consider temporal stability in those structural parameters at both population and individual levels. The population-level stability pertains to whether the distribution of risk preferences across individuals in the subject population remains stable over time. The individual-level stability pertains to within-individual correlation in risk preferences over time. We embed the CPT structure in a random coefficient model that allows us to evaluate temporal stability at both levels in a coherent manner, without having to switch between different sets of models to draw inferences at a specific level.

The purpose of this paper is to build a neural model of an aircraft from flight data and online estimation of the aerodynamic derivatives from established neural model.

A neural model capable of predicting generalized force and moment coefficients of an aircraft using measured motion and control variable is used to extract aerodynamic derivatives. The use of neural partial differentiation (NPD) method to the multi-input-multi-output (MIMO) aircraft system for the online estimation of aerodynamic parameters from flight data is extended.

The estimation of aerodynamic derivatives of rigid and flexible aircrafts is treated separately. In the case of rigid aircraft, longitudinal and lateral-directional derivatives are estimated from flight data. Whereas simulated data are used for a flexible aircraft in the absence of its flight data. The unknown frequencies of structural modes of flexible aircraft are also identified as part of estimation problem in addition to the stability and control derivatives. The estimated results are compared with the parameter estimates obtained from output error method. The validity of estimates has been checked by the model validation method, wherein the estimated model response is matched with the flight data that are not used for estimating the derivatives.

Compared to the Delta and Zero methods of neural networks for parameter estimation, the NPD method has an additional advantage of providing the direct theoretical insight into the statistical information (standard deviation and relative standard deviation) of estimates from noisy data. The NPD method does not require the initial value of estimates, but it requires a priori information about the model structure of aircraft dynamics to extract the flight stability and control parameters. In the case of aircraft with a high degree of flexibility, aircraft dynamics may contain many parameters that are required to be estimated. Thus, NPD seems to be a more appropriate method for the flexible aircraft parameter estimation, as it has potential to estimate most of the parameters without having the issue of convergence.

This paper highlights the application of NPD for MIMO aircraft system; previously it was used only for multi-input and single-output system for extraction of parameters. The neural modeling and application of NPD approach to the MIMO aircraft system facilitate to the design of neural network-based adaptive flight control system. Some interesting results of parameter estimation of flexible aircraft are also presented from established neural model using simulated data as a novelty. This gives more value addition to analyzing the flight data of flexible aircraft as it is a challenging problem in parameter estimation of flexible aircraft.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate aerodynamic parameters accurately from flight data in the presence of unknown noise characteristics.

The introduced adaptive filter scheme is composed of two parallel UKFs. At every time‐step, the master UKF estimates the states and parameters using the noise covariance obtained by the slave UKF, while the slave UKF estimates the noise covariance using the innovations generated by the master UKF. This real time innovation‐based adaptive unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is used to estimate aerodynamic parameters of aircraft in uncertain environment where noise characteristics are drastically changing.

The investigations are initially made on simulated flight data with moderate to high level of process noise and it is shown that all the aerodynamic parameter estimates are accurate. Results are analyzed based on Monte Carlo simulation with 4000 realizations. The efficacy of adaptive UKF in comparison with the other standard Kalman filters on the estimation of accurate flight stability and control derivatives from flight test data in the presence of noise, are also evaluated. It is found that adaptive UKF successfully attains better aerodynamic parameter estimation under the same condition of process noise intensity changes.

The presence of process noise complicates parameter estimation severely. Since the non‐measurable process noise makes the system stochastic, consequently, it requires a suitable state estimator to propagate the states for online estimation of aircraft aerodynamic parameters from flight data.

This is the first paper highlighting the process noise intensity change on real time estimation of flight stability and control parameters using adaptive unscented Kalman filter.

Currently, the state of practice in experimental design centres on orthogonal designs (Alpizar et al., 2003), which are suitable when applied to surveys with a large sample size. In a stated choice experiment involving interdependent freight stakeholders in Sydney (see Hensher & Puckett, 2007; Puckett et al., 2007; Puckett & Hensher, 2008), one significant empirical constraint was difficult in recruiting unique decision-making groups to participate. The expected relatively small sample size led us to seek an alternative experimental design. That is, we decided to construct an optimal design that utilised extant information regarding the preferences and experiences of respondents, to achieve statistically significant parameter estimates under a relatively low sample size (see Bliemer & Rose, 2006).

The D-efficient experimental design developed for the study is unique, in that it centred on the choices of interdependent respondents. Hence, the generation of the design had to account for the preferences of two distinct classes of decision makers: buyers and sellers of road freight transport. This paper discusses the process by which these (non-coincident) preferences were used to seed the generation of the experimental design, and then examines the relative power of the design through an extensive bootstrap analysis of increasingly restricted sample sizes for both decision-making classes in the sample. We demonstrate the strong potential for efficient designs to achieve empirical goals under sampling constraints, whilst identifying limitations to their power as sample size decreases.

Stated choice experiments can be used to estimate the parameters in discrete choice models by showing hypothetical choice situations to respondents. These attribute levels in each choice situation are determined by an underlying experimental design. Often, an orthogonal design is used, although recent studies have shown that better experimental designs exist, such as efficient designs. These designs provide more reliable parameter estimates. However, they require prior information about the parameter values, which is often not readily available. Serial efficient designs are proposed in this paper in which the design is updated during the survey. In contrast to adaptive conjoint, serial conjoint only changes the design across respondents, not within-respondent thereby avoiding endogeneity bias as much as possible. After each respondent, new parameters are estimated and used as priors for generating a new efficient design. Results using the multinomial logit model show that using such a serial design, using zero initial prior values, provides the same reliability of the parameter estimates as the best efficient design (based on the true parameters). Any possible bias can be avoided by using an orthogonal design for the first few respondents. Serial designs do not suffer from misspecification of the priors as they are continuously updated. The disadvantage is the extra implementation cost of an automated parameter estimation and design generation procedure in the survey. Also, the respondents have to be surveyed in mostly serial fashion instead of all parallel.

The chapter considers parameter identification, estimation, and model diagnostics in medium scale DSGE models from a frequency domain perspective using the framework developed in Qu and Tkachenko (2012). The analysis uses Smets and Wouters (2007) as an illustrative example, motivated by the fact that it has become a workhorse model in the DSGE literature. For identification, in addition to checking parameter identifiability, we derive the non-identification curve to depict parameter values that yield observational equivalence, revealing which and how many parameters need to be fixed to achieve local identification. For estimation and inference, we contrast estimates obtained using the full spectrum with those using only the business cycle frequencies to find notably different parameter values and impulse response functions. A further comparison between the nonparametrically estimated and model implied spectra suggests that the business cycle based method delivers better estimates of the features that the model is intended to capture. Overall, the results suggest that the frequency domain based approach, in part due to its ability to handle subsets of frequencies, constitutes a flexible framework for studying medium scale DSGE models.

We review the experimental evidence on risk aversion in controlled laboratory settings. We review the strengths and weaknesses of alternative elicitation procedures, the strengths and weaknesses of alternative estimation procedures, and finally the effect of controlling for risk attitudes on inferences in experiments.

A semiparametric stochastic frontier model is proposed for panel data, incorporating several flexible features. First, a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production frontier is considered without log-transformation to prevent induced non-negligible estimation bias. Second, the model flexibility is improved via semiparameterization, where the technology is an unknown function of a set of environment variables. The technology function accounts for latent heterogeneity across individual units, which can be freely correlated with inputs, environment variables, and/or inefficiency determinants. Furthermore, the technology function incorporates a single-index structure to circumvent the curse of dimensionality. Third, distributional assumptions are eschewed on both stochastic noise and inefficiency for model identification. Instead, only the conditional mean of the inefficiency is assumed, which depends on related determinants with a wide range of choice, via a positive parametric function. As a result, technical efficiency is constructed without relying on an assumed distribution on composite error. The model provides flexible structures on both the production frontier and inefficiency, thereby alleviating the risk of model misspecification in production and efficiency analysis. The estimator involves a series based nonlinear least squares estimation for the unknown parameters and a kernel based local estimation for the technology function. Promising finite-sample performance is demonstrated through simulations, and the model is applied to investigate productive efficiency among OECD countries from 1970–2019.