Search results
1 – 10 of 239
The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the purchasing power parity (PPP) holds for countries in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ).
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the purchasing power parity (PPP) holds for countries in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ).
Design/methodology/approach
The author uses time series and panel data techniques.
Findings
Overall, the evidence is inconclusive. The time series and panel unit root tests rejected the PPP. The time series cointegration test supported it. The panel cointegration tests are, however, inconclusive.
Research limitations/implications
The inconclusive evidence implies that the appropriateness of the PPP-based policies which have been implemented in the WAMZ may be difficult to assess. Moreover, the question of whether the WAMZ agenda may face trade obstacles is still widely open. Perhaps fractional unit root and cointegration techniques may help pin down conclusive evidence. Future studies may consider this direction.
Originality/value
The paper is original in the sense that it is the first to utilize a mixture of time series and panel data techniques to examine the PPP hypothesis for these countries.
Details
Keywords
Saban Nazlioglu, Mehmet Altuntas, Emre Kilic and Ilhan Kucukkkaplan
This paper aims to test purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, which are known as the GIIPS countries.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to test purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, which are known as the GIIPS countries.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors conduct a comprehensive analysis by using unit root approaches without and with structural breaks and non-linearity.
Findings
The PPP is valid for the GIIPS countries. Considering structural breaks in non-linear framework plays a crucial role.
Originality/value
There is no empirical study testing PPP hypothesis by focusing on the GIIPS countries. This study further takes into account for structural breaks and non-linearity in the real exchange rates of these countries.
Details
Keywords
This paper proposes a Bayesian procedure to investigate the purchasing power parity (PPP) utilizing an exponential smooth transition vector error correction model (VECM)…
Abstract
This paper proposes a Bayesian procedure to investigate the purchasing power parity (PPP) utilizing an exponential smooth transition vector error correction model (VECM). Employing a simple Gibbs sampler, we jointly estimate the cointegrating relationship along with the nonlinearities caused by the departures from the long-run equilibrium. By allowing for nonlinear regime changes, we provide strong evidence that PPP holds between the US and each of the remaining G7 countries. The model we employed implies that the dynamics of the PPP deviations can be rather complex, which is attested to by the impulse response analysis.
In what seems as an infinitely ongoing debate regarding the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory, this paper seeks to question the strength of the scientific “evidence” put…
Abstract
Purpose
In what seems as an infinitely ongoing debate regarding the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory, this paper seeks to question the strength of the scientific “evidence” put forward by the PPP revisionists
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, the validity of the PPP revisionists' scientific evidence supporting long‐run PPP is questioned based on the replication of an influential review study that is considered by PPP revisionists to exhibit “some of the strongest evidence” in favour of the PPP theory.
Findings
By simulation experiments it is demonstrated that the traditional PPP unit root tests are non‐robust to the empirically identified (G)ARCH distortions. Due to (G)ARCH distortions, over‐rejections for the traditional unit root tests are shown to be a problem that potentially misleads researchers to believe that long‐run PPP holds under circumstances when it is in fact not valid. As a potential remedy to this problem, a new unit root test is introduced which is robust to conditional heteroscedasticity disturbances, and in contrast to traditional unit root tests, it exhibits no significant empirical support for the PPP theory.
Originality/value
The study illustrates that the PPP revisionists' unit root tests cannot reliably test the PPP hypothesis in the presence of (G)ARCH distortions, due to bad power and size properties. Perhaps it is time to conclude that, based on the currently existing research, it is virtually impossible to empirically come to a credible conclusion regarding whether long‐run PPP holds or not.
Details
Keywords
The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between relative population growth and purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rate for a panel of 80 countries.
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between relative population growth and purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rate for a panel of 80 countries.
Design/methodology/approach
Panel unit root and panel cointegration tests have been used to investigate the above relationship over the period of 1951‐2000.
Findings
The empirical results show that there is stable relationship between PPP exchange rate and relative population growth in these selected countries in the long run. The results also show that this long‐run relationship remains valid when the sample is divided on the basis of their stage of development.
Practical implications
These empirical findings suggest that population growth has an important role in exchange rate determination through PPP.
Originality/value
Thus, relative population growth could invalidate the PPP hypothesis in the long run. PPP is the main edifice of most of the monetary exchange rate models. Hence, the role of relative population growth should be taken into account in dealing with issues in international macroeconomics and renewed attention should be given in the theory of exchange rate determination in terms of relative population growth instead of relative price level.
Details
Keywords
Christina Anderl and Guglielmo Maria Caporale
This paper aims to explain real exchange rate fluctuations by means of a model including both standard fundamentals and two alternative measures of inflation expectations for five…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to explain real exchange rate fluctuations by means of a model including both standard fundamentals and two alternative measures of inflation expectations for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Sweden) over the period January 1993–July 2019.
Design/methodology/approach
Both a benchmark linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) specification are considered.
Findings
The results suggest that the nonlinear framework is more appropriate to capture the behaviour of real exchange rates given the presence of asymmetries both in the long and short run. In particular, the speed of adjustment towards the purchasing power parity (PPP) implied long-run equilibrium is three times faster in a nonlinear framework, which provides much stronger evidence in support of PPP. Moreover, inflation expectations play an important role, with survey-based ones having a more sizable effect than market-based ones.
Originality/value
The focus on linearities and the estimation of a NARDL model, which is shown to outperform the linear ARDL model both within sample and out of sample, is an important contribution to the existing literature which has rarely applied this type of framework; the choice of an appropriate econometric method also makes the policy implications of the analysis more reliable; in particular, monetary authorities should aim to achieve a high degree of credibility to manage them and thus currency fluctuations effectively; the inflation targeting framework might be especially appropriate for this purpose.
Details
Keywords
Bo Tian, Jiaxin Fu, Yongshun Xu and Longshan Sun
The risks and uncertainties of public–private partnership (PPP) projects threaten their sustainability. Contract flexibility, which is based on the theory of incomplete contract…
Abstract
Purpose
The risks and uncertainties of public–private partnership (PPP) projects threaten their sustainability. Contract flexibility, which is based on the theory of incomplete contract and transaction cost, may be a viable solution to this issue. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between contract flexibility and the sustainability performance of PPP projects. The multiple mediating roles of justice perception and cooperation efficiency are assessed, thereby allowing the pathways and conditions to be understood more comprehensively for improving the sustainability performance of PPP projects.
Design/methodology/approach
Nine hypotheses in the proposed research model are tested via structural equation modeling using data acquired from 218 Chinese PPP professionals.
Findings
Results show that contract flexibility positively affects PPP project sustainability performance. Justice perception and cooperation efficiency play direct and sequential mediating roles in this effect.
Originality/value
This study validates that contract flexibility positively impacts the sustainability performance of PPP projects, where justice perception and cooperation efficiency serve direct and sequential mediating roles. The findings of this study contribute to an improved understanding of the effect of contract flexibility on the sustainability performance of PPP projects. Furthermore, they provide important theoretical and practical insights into contract management as well as beneficial information and valuable initiatives for improving the sustainability of PPP projects.
Details
Keywords
This paper examines and dissects eight popular conjectures about exchange rates. The conjectures are: there exists a systematic linkage between economic fundamentals and exchange…
Abstract
This paper examines and dissects eight popular conjectures about exchange rates. The conjectures are: there exists a systematic linkage between economic fundamentals and exchange rates; flexible exchange rates are unstable due to destabilising speculation; flexible exchange rates are excessively volatile; the foreign exchange market is efficient; purchasing power parity holds; volatile exchange rates are harmful to trade; depreciating exchange rates trigger a “vicious” inflationary circle; and countries with current account deficits have depreciating exchange rates. The main message is that there is weak theoretical and empirical support for the majority of the conjectures. Only one proposition, relative PPP has strong empirical support but its policy relevance is weakened by the difficulty of interpreting departures from PPP. The remaining group for which there is inconclusive support presents the greatest challenge to research and policy as it includes the first conjecture.
Details
Keywords
Dmitri Vinogradov, Elena Shadrina and Larissa Kokareva
Why do some countries (often developing and emerging economies) adopt special laws on PPP, whilst in others PPPs are governed by the legislation on public procurement and related…
Abstract
Why do some countries (often developing and emerging economies) adopt special laws on PPP, whilst in others PPPs are governed by the legislation on public procurement and related bylaws? This paper explains the above global discrepancies from an institutional perspective. In a contract-theoretical framework we demonstrate how PPPs can enable projects that are not feasible through standard public procurement arrangements. Incentives for private partners are created through extra benefits (often non-contractible) from their collaboration with the government (e.g. risk reduction, reputational gains, access to additional resources, lower bureaucratic burden, etc.). In a well-developed institutional environment these benefits are implicitly guaranteed, suggesting no need in a specialized PPP-enabling legislation. Otherwise, a PPP law should establish an institutional architecture to provide the above benefits.