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Central Bank Policy: Theory and Practice
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-751-6

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Panayiotis F. Diamandis, Anastassios A. Drakos and Georgios P. Kouretas

The purpose of this paper is to provide an extensive review of the monetary model of exchange rate determination which is the main theoretical framework on analyzing…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide an extensive review of the monetary model of exchange rate determination which is the main theoretical framework on analyzing exchange rate behavior over the last 40 years. Furthermore, we test the flexible price monetarist variant and the sticky price Keynesian variant of the monetary model. We conduct our analysis employing a sample of 14 advanced economies using annual data spanning the period 1880–2012.

Design/methodology/approach

The theoretical background of the paper relies on the monetary model to the exchange rate determination. We provide a thorough econometric analysis using a battery of unit root and cointegration testing techniques. We test the price-flexible monetarist version and the sticky-price version of the model using annual data from 1880 to 2012 for a group of industrialized countries.

Findings

We provide strong evidence of the existence of a nonlinear relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals. Therefore, we model the time-varying nature of this relationship by allowing for Markov regime switches for the exchange rate regimes. Modeling exchange rates within this context can be motivated by the fact that the change in regime should be considered as a random event and not predictable. These results show that linearity is rejected in favor of an MS-VECM specification which forms statistically an adequate representation of the data. Two regimes are implied by the model; the one of the estimated regimes describes the monetary model whereas the other matches in most cases the constant coefficient model with wrong signs. Furthermore it is shown that depending on the nominal exchange rate regime in operation, the adjustment to the long run implied by the monetary model of the exchange rate determination came either from the exchange rate or from the monetary fundamentals. Moreover, based on a Regime Classification Measure, we showed that our chosen Markov-switching specification performed well in distinguishing between the two regimes for all cases. Finally, it is shown that fundamentals are not only significant within each regime but are also significant for the switches between the two regimes.

Practical implications

The results are of interest to practitioners and policy makers since understanding the evolution and determination of exchange rates is of crucial importance. Furthermore, our results are linked to forecasting performance of exchange rate models.

Originality/value

The present analysis extends previous analyses on exchange rate determination and it provides further support in favor of the monetary model as a long-run framework to understand the evolution of exchange rates.

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Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78350-756-6

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The Handbook of Road Safety Measures
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84855-250-0

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Article

George K. Stylios

Examines the tenth published year of the ITCRR. Runs the whole gamut of textile innovation, research and testing, some of which investigates hitherto untouched aspects…

Abstract

Examines the tenth published year of the ITCRR. Runs the whole gamut of textile innovation, research and testing, some of which investigates hitherto untouched aspects. Subjects discussed include cotton fabric processing, asbestos substitutes, textile adjuncts to cardiovascular surgery, wet textile processes, hand evaluation, nanotechnology, thermoplastic composites, robotic ironing, protective clothing (agricultural and industrial), ecological aspects of fibre properties – to name but a few! There would appear to be no limit to the future potential for textile applications.

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International Journal of Clothing Science and Technology, vol. 16 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0955-6222

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Kirstin Hubrich and Timo Teräsvirta

This survey focuses on two families of nonlinear vector time series models, the family of vector threshold regression (VTR) models and that of vector smooth transition…

Abstract

This survey focuses on two families of nonlinear vector time series models, the family of vector threshold regression (VTR) models and that of vector smooth transition regression (VSTR) models. These two model classes contain incomplete models in the sense that strongly exogeneous variables are allowed in the equations. The emphasis is on stationary models, but the considerations also include nonstationary VTR and VSTR models with cointegrated variables. Model specification, estimation and evaluation is considered, and the use of the models illustrated by macroeconomic examples from the literature.

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VAR Models in Macroeconomics – New Developments and Applications: Essays in Honor of Christopher A. Sims
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78190-752-8

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G M D'Este and M A P Taylor

The importance of the adverse impacts of network degradation has stimulated substantial international research interest in transport network reliability, that is, the…

Abstract

The importance of the adverse impacts of network degradation has stimulated substantial international research interest in transport network reliability, that is, the ability of degraded transport networks to cope with travel demand. Most of the recent research effort has focused on the reliability of urban passenger transport networks, in terms of the probability that the network will deliver a required standard of performance. This situation is characterised by high levels of congestion, a dense road network, and quantifiable probability of degradation of the network. Outside major urban centres, the situation is very different. The main dominant consideration in transport network infrastructure provision is accessibility - linking urban centres, providing regional coverage, and basic levels of accessibility for the non-urban community and economy. The network is sparse, congestion is not a significant issue, and access to essential community services and to markets is the major driving force underlying network development. In this context, the vulnerability of the network is perhaps more important than ‘reliability’. This paper develops the concept of network vulnerability. It begins by reviewing the current state of research into network reliability, then proposes extensions and adaptations to the reliability concepts that are more appropriate for strategic-level multi-modal transport systems. Several alternative definitions for vulnerability are proposed. The paper also discusses the development of algorithmic and visualisation tools that may be used to identify specific ‘weak spots’ in a network, where failure of some part of the transport infrastructure would have the most serious effects on access to specific locations and on overall system performance. Finally, the paper describes potential applications of network vulnerability concepts, and proposes directions for further research.

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The Network Reliability of Transport
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-08-044109-2

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City Logistics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-08-043903-7

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Article

George K. Stylios

Examines the ninth published year of the ITCRR. Runs the whole gamut of textile innovation, research and testing, some of which investigates hitherto untouched aspects…

Abstract

Examines the ninth published year of the ITCRR. Runs the whole gamut of textile innovation, research and testing, some of which investigates hitherto untouched aspects. Subjects discussed include cotton fabric processing, asbestos substitutes, textile adjuncts to cardiovascular surgery, wet textile processes, hand evaluation, nanotechnology, thermoplastic composites, robotic ironing, protective clothing (agricultural and industrial), ecological aspects of fibre properties – to name but a few! There would appear to be no limit to the future potential for textile applications.

Details

International Journal of Clothing Science and Technology, vol. 15 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0955-6222

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Handbook of Transport Geography and Spatial Systems
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-615-83253-8

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Auto Motives
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85-724234-1

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