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Article
Publication date: 6 November 2017

Levan Efremidze, Sungsoo Kim, Ozan Sula and Thomas D. Willett

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between capital flow surges, reversals and sudden stops.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between capital flow surges, reversals and sudden stops.

Design/methodology/approach

Emphasizing the importance of looking at the behavior of domestic as well as foreign capital flows, the authors distinguish sudden stops from capital flow reversals by attributing the former to foreign capital flows only.

Findings

It is found that, despite the large differences in the number of surges identified by several different measures in the literature, a majority of surges do end in reversals of some type. The percentages tend to be slightly over half for surges in net capital flows, but on average, 70 per cent of gross surges end in sudden stops. Furthermore, contrary to popular belief, approximately half of sudden stops and net capital flow reversals are not preceded by surges. It is also found that surges that persist longer are more likely to turn into sudden stops and reversals.

Research limitations/implications

The authors find substantial empirical differences in the characteristics of sudden stops (based on gross foreign flows) and reversals (based on net flows).

Practical implications

Large inflows of financial capital are not always a strong indicator that a country’s economic policies will continue to provide stability in the future. They may signal an increase rather than reduction in the risk of future instability.

Originality/value

This study focuses on an issue that has been less explored to date, the relationship between capital flow surges, reversals and sudden stops. The authors distinguish, redefine and document differences among capital flow reversals and sudden stops. Duration of surges is related to the likelihood of having reversals and sudden stops.

Article
Publication date: 8 November 2011

Levan Efremidze, Samuel M. Schreyer and Ozan Sula

The purpose of this paper is to examine empirical characteristics of two commonly mentioned expressions of international financial crisis, “sudden stops” and currency crises.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine empirical characteristics of two commonly mentioned expressions of international financial crisis, “sudden stops” and currency crises.

Design/methodology/approach

Sudden stop and currency crisis events are identified and empirical regularities among them are analyzed based on the annual data of 25 emerging market countries from 1990 to 2003.

Findings

Puzzlingly, these two seemingly close expressions of crises overlap less than 50 percent of the time and sudden stops more frequently precede than follow currency crises. Also the two different sudden stop measures are not strongly correlated with each other.

Research limitations/implications

This shows that it can make a great deal of difference what measure is used and suggests that studies in this area should be sure to check the robustness of their results to different measures.

Practical implications

The authors think that the proper analysis should focus on how to use these different measures to understand the nature of the crises. Thus, sudden stop and currency crisis measures should be used as complements, rather than substitutes.

Social implications

The alarming frequency of the emerging market crises during the last three decades has motivated a large volume of theoretical and empirical literature on the subject. The paper's results advance understanding of these events.

Originality/value

A large body of studies on currency crises coexists with a growing literature on sudden stops yet a majority of the studies that investigate either one of these phenomena do not mention the other. The paper adds value by investigating empirical relationships between them.

Content available
Article
Publication date: 8 November 2011

Thomas D. Willett

335

Abstract

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 3 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 6 April 2023

Ola Al Sayed, Noha Sami Omar and Abdelmoneam Khaled

This paper aims to discuss the main characteristics of the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region's capital inflows volatility. It also examines the effect of institutional…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to discuss the main characteristics of the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region's capital inflows volatility. It also examines the effect of institutional quality and information availability on capital inflows volatility in selected MENA countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Tunisia) in the period 1996–2017.

Design/methodology/approach

The study's assessments are based on the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) and globalization indices. It also employs an updated data set of balance of payments indicators released by the International Monetary Fund. Moreover, the study uses econometric panel modeling of random effect model, with Driscoll-Kraay robust standard error, to analyze the relationship between capital inflows volatility, institutional quality and information availability.

Findings

The paper finds that both institutional quality and information availability are in an inverse relationship with the total capital inflows volatility in the MENA region. However, the findings vary across the different components of total capital inflows. For example, the volatility of foreign direct investment (FDI) declines, like total capital flows, as the two factors improve. However, the volatility of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) is negatively related to institutional quality but does not have any significant relationship with information availability. While the volatility of foreign other investments (FOI) decreases with the availability of information, but does not have any significant relationship with institutional quality.

Originality/value

This paper expands the limited literature regarding the determinants of capital inflows volatility. Furthermore, it is the first study that investigates the effect of institutional quality and information availability on capital inflows volatility in the MENA region.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 August 2021

Thomas D. Willett

This study aims to critically review recent contributions to the methodology of financial economics and discuss how they relate to one another and directions for further research.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to critically review recent contributions to the methodology of financial economics and discuss how they relate to one another and directions for further research.

Design/methodology/approach

A critical review of recent literature on new methodologies for financial economics.

Findings

Recent books have made important contributions to the study of financial economics. They suggest new approaches that include an emphasis on radical uncertainty, adaptive markets, agent-based modeling and narrative economics, as well as extensions of behavioral finance to include concepts such as diagnostic expectations. Many of these contributions can be seen more as complements than substitutes and provide fruitful directions for further research. Efficient markets can be seen as holding under particular circumstances. A major them of most of these contributions is that the study of financial crises and other aspects of financial economics requires the use of multiple theories and approaches. No one approach will be sufficient.

Research limitations/implications

There are great opportunities for further research in financial economics making use of these new approaches.

Practical implications

These recent contributions can be quite useful for improved analysis by researchers, private participants in the financial sector and macroeconomic and regulatory officials.

Originality/value

Provides an introduction to these new approaches and highlights fruitful areas for their extensions and applications.

Article
Publication date: 8 November 2011

Thomas Willett, Eric M.P. Chiu, Sirathorn (B.J.) Dechsakulthorn, Ramya Ghosh, Bernard Kibesse, Kenneth Kim, Jeff (Yongbok) Kim and Alice Ouyang

There has been significant interest in the classification of exchange rate regimes in order to investigate a wide range of hypotheses. Studies of the effects of exchange rate…

Abstract

Purpose

There has been significant interest in the classification of exchange rate regimes in order to investigate a wide range of hypotheses. Studies of the effects of exchange rate regimes on crises and other aspects of economic performance can have important implications for policy choices. The paper provides a guide to the major new large data sets that classify exchange rate regimes and to critically analyze important methodological issues.

Design/methodology/approach

The study surveys and critiques the literature and provides theoretical analysis of major issues involved in classifying exchange rate regimes.

Findings

The study finds that all of the new data sets have problems but some have more problems than others and several of them are substantial improvements on what was previously available. It is also shown that the best ways to classify depend on the issue being addressed and that for detailed studies variants of measures using the concept of exchange market pressure are the most promising. Directions for future research are also discussed.

Originality/value

The paper makes researchers aware of the new data sets that are available and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. It also presents original analysis of several of the major conceptual issues involved in classifying exchange rate regimes.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 3 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

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