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The purpose of this study was to assess real estate cycles and their impact on property values in Gaborone, Botswana. Investors and real estate professionals in Botswana rarely assess property cycles when purchasing property. This study therefore, aims to assess whether real estate cycles do exist, their duration and the type of real estate cycle that Botswana experiences.

Data was collected from primary and secondary sources. This included sourcing out information at the Deeds Registry Office in Gaborone on residential property sales and a questionnaire to 100 property investors. A record was made of properties that were sold for the period of 16 years starting from the year 2000 to 2016. Secondary data on the other hand was also collected from published and unpublished books, academic journals, professional journals, magazines, reports and monographs. A quantitative approach was used in this study. Data was analysed using Microsoft Excel and subsequently presented in form of tables and graphs.

The findings from the literature review revealed that there are four phases in the real estate cycles (recovery, expansion, oversupply and recession) and each has distinct features that an investor must be aware of to avoid consequences in the property market. The results from the data analysis revealed that real estate cycles do exist in Botswana as identified during the past 16 years. The cycle that Botswana experiences is called the kitchen cycle. It was also evident that Botswana experienced three cycles lasting five to six years each. Furthermore, it was discovered that all phases in the real estate cycles affect property values.

There is relatively little information about property cycles and their timing in Botswana. Therefore, this study may assist valuation surveyors to make promptly informed decisions on property investment through cycle assessment and hence positively inform the public and financial stakeholders. Society might find this beneficial in as far as decision-making is concerned when thinking of investing in real estate. The current system at the deeds office is cumbersome and time consuming, thus making it difficult for the researchers and possibly the public to analyse the property market. This study therefore, may encourage the Deeds Registry Office to computerize their records.

There is relatively little information about property cycles and their timing in Botswana. Therefore, this study may assist valuation surveyors to make promptly informed decisions on property investment through cycle assessment and hence positively inform the public and financial stakeholders.

Society might find this beneficial in as far as decision-making is concerned when thinking of investing in real estate.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first of its kind in Botswana to extend the knowledge of real estate cycles and their impact on property cycles in Botswana.

Examines the failure of the City of London office market over the last 30 years to transmit information on impending oversupply to developers as the market moved towards the top of the demand cycle. Notes that the resulting collapse in investment values and the exposure of the banking system to large‐scale non‐performing loans provides a picture of potentially destabilising market failure. Proposes that in order to prevent oversupply occurring and thereby secure investment values, a form of self‐regulation is required.

This paper aims to present a lean management approach to reduce waste generated by overproduction within a global supply chain setting. Statistics register a considerable increase in inventories which has increased waste because of the overproduction/oversupply throughout the global supply chain, and there has been insufficient research targeting on it.

This study develops a conceptual approach based on the practices of Toyota Production System (TPS). The analysis is performed on four segments of a business: “R&D”, “Production”, “Logistics” and “Service/retailers”. The proposed approach adopts the pull-based lean management system by two modules, “Intra-lean management” and “Inter-lean management”.

A case study is conducted to demonstrate how the proposed approach can be used in a real situation. The ideas and benefits of the proposed approach are also discussed.

The proposed solution can be applied in manufacturing and service industries, as well as in industries where production and R&D are interconnected.

The paper provides a conceptual approach that explains how intra- and inter-lean management can be effectively integrated to achieve a smooth flow in the business. This paper innovates in developing a pull-based driven flow relationship among the four segments of a business, as a response to the lack of integration among them and the increase of inventory in the hands of businesses.

The purpose of this paper is to extend the studies of commercial property cycles by providing a cross-field approach to property markets modelling.

The approach allows for the incorporation of market shocks into the property cycle model as fundamental building blocks; assessment of overall market absorption generated through cyclic activity; and timing estimation of major market events. An ideal model is first constructed, which relies on an observation that a property cycle consists of four distinctive phases. These are described formally through appropriate formulae. Subsequently, it is observed that an analogous cyclic behaviour is described in physics as the Otto cycle. The formulae derived in physics for the Otto cycle are now redefined so to be applicable to the property market.

The model has been applied to the London office market, both to the historic and the current data sets. This allowed for the comparison of model predicted absorption and vacancies with the historic records, providing for assessment of the model accuracy. The model predicted that absorption was also compared with historic space supply allowing for estimation of oversupply and resultant vacancies. London office submarkets were analysed and compared to each other, allowing for estimation of their relative attractiveness as perceived by tenants and developers.

The model may be used to estimate cycle generated absorption; therefore, over and under supply of space due to developers’ activity may be assessed. It is also possible to use the model to assess the timing of future market peaks and troughs.

This is the first research directly applying the methodology developed in physics to commercial property cycles.

The purpose of this paper is to expand our understanding of processes governing commercial property cycles, and to provide tools, which enable identification of property cycles’ turning points’ location.

This paper is divided into three parts. The first looks at the demand-supply dynamics and the location of two characteristic cyclic points, the market bottom and the cycle commencement. In the second part a property relevant formula for entropy is derived, and its relation to the cycle overheated stage and the market peak is studied. In the third part, we discuss still another characteristic point of the cycle, which relates to the stage when developers elect to undertake new projects. This analysis is done by employing the chaos theory, and its relation to the cyclic evolution.

It is found that some markets cycle, while others fluctuate only. A clear method for distinguishing among these is provided. The bottom of a cycle may overlap or be time separated from the start of a subsequent cycle. Market peaks are characterised by a sharp decrease in financial component to entropy for top quality building grades. A cycling market is characterised by crossing of a distinct vacancy rate during the cycle progression.

The tools developed in the paper allow for clear characterisation of the market types and their cyclic behaviour. This in turn allows for timely characterisation of the market state and for short time-frame forecasting. The depth of a cycle may be calculated and the subsequent correction level estimated.

The paper utilises cross-field approach by taking methods from both physics and mathematics and applying them to property markets. It breaks new ground both in property research and in applied mathematics by showing how the current frontier in pure mathematics may be applied to property.

This study aims to extend the current literature by examining the inflation-hedging effectiveness of Malaysian residential property in the short run and long run. Malaysia is an emerging market and has some unique characteristics. Therefore, a dedicated study in this market is critical.

The analysis of this study involves two stages. The first stage is to estimate the inflation-hedging ability of Malaysian residential property in the short run. The Fama and Schwert model was employed. Thereafter, the long-run inflation-hedging effectiveness was assessed by using a dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) model.

The Fama and Schwert tests reveal that Malaysian residential property does provide some satisfactory hedge against the expected inflation component over the short run. However, variations are evident among different types of residential property. The DOLS results provide strong evidence to support that housing is an effective hedge against the expected inflation in the long run, whereas no comparable evidence is found for the unexpected inflation component.

The findings enable more informed and practical investment decision-making regarding the role of housing in inflation risk management.

This paper is the first study to offer empirical evidence of the inflation-hedging attributes of Malaysian residential property. Moreover, the inflation-hedging effectiveness of different types of residential property is also compared for the first time.

Single-family houses are a common form of housing in Europe. Most were built in the context of the suburbanization after World War II and are now facing challenges arising from generational changes as well as increasing living and energy standards. According to the hypothesis of this paper, in several EU regions, single-family houses may face future challenges arising from oversupply and lack of adaptation to current demand. To examine this, the paper analyses the present situation and discusses the prognosis for the challenges described above regarding the three neighbouring north-western European countries Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands, based on available data and a review of country-specific characteristics of housing markets as well as national policies. Despite an impending mismatch between demand and supply, planning policies still support the emergence of new single-family houses. The comparison of Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands shows the growing polarization between shrinking and growing regions and central and peripheral sites apparent at different stages in the three countries. While a high rate of vacancies is already registered for some regions in Germany, in the Netherlands this phenomenon can only be seen near the borders and in villages within the Randstad conurbation. In Belgium also, this phenomenon is not yet widespread, but in some suburban neighbourhoods dating from the 1950's and 1960's more and more single-family houses are becoming more difficult to sell, indicating an emerging mismatch between supply and demand. This article proposes some instruments which enable municipalities to intervene in single family housing neighbourhoods which are largely dominated by private ownership. These instruments are not yet widely established in single-family housing neighbourhoods but that may become important in the future.

Describes the resurgence of the equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) which are becoming major sources of equity capital for debt reduction and for acquisitions of performing commercial and multi‐family residential property. Describes the objectives and characteristics of the new equity REITs, as well as their investors. Reveals that REIT stock offerings are now hot stocks and that there is a danger that the market may become oversupplied with them.

The purpose of this study is to identify the optimal meetings, incentive travel, conventions, and exhibitions (MICE) capacity for Las Vegas and analyze the over‐ and under‐capacity situation in Las Vegas from 2010 through 2014. The study provides recommendations for Las Vegas's future MICE development based on the capacity analysis.

A single‐period inventory model, which involves cost of over‐capacity, cost of under‐capacity, and forecasted future MICE demand, was used to identify the optimal capacity in terms of MICE square foot days for each year from 2010 through 2014. The model, which identified optimal capacity, was compared to the planned available capacity for each year to determine the magnitude of over‐ or under‐capacity.

The cost of over‐capacity was found much greater than the cost of under‐capacity. The model that identified optimal capacity indicates that Las Vegas will experience severe over‐capacity from 2010 to 2014.

The findings of this study should help researchers and practitioners evaluate the current status of the Las Vegas MICE industry in terms of capacity efficiency. The results suggest that the MICE development in Las Vegas is heading for over‐capacity and the industry must downscale its development plan in the near future to avoid severe over‐capacity.

For the first time in MICE research, this study develops an inventory model for determining the optimal MICE capacity. The model enables researchers and practitioners to identify and quantify over‐ and under‐capacity in the MICE industry in a scientific way.