Search results

This viewpoint engages with Jem Bendell’s deep adaptation framework which was developed as a response to the threat of collapse. Proponents of deep adaptation argue that societal collapse is either likely, inevitable or already underway. The deep adaptation framework is employed as a tool to contemplate the necessary adaptation of tourism development and planning in a context of polycrisis leading to collapse.

This is a conceptual viewpoint article that is built on deductive analysis of recent events, reports and scientific findings. It employs the deep adaptation framework to analyse possible alternative tourism futures in the face of the threat of collapse.

Bendell’s framework included four aspects of response to the recognition of the threat of collapse: resilience, relinquishment, restoration and reconciliation. In this work, the deep adaptation framework is employed to analyse what a deep adaptation approach to tourism might offer for efforts in securing optimal social and ecological outcomes. Findings highlight damaging activities that we should relinquish, more resilient approaches that communities could encourage and restorative practices such as rewilding and pluriversal economies as protective measures. This work recommends a precautionary approach to transform tourism education, research and practice in order to secure better tourism futures.

This work is novel in engaging with the threat of future collapse and in using the deep adaptation framework to consider alternative tourism futures.

This concluding chapter summarizes the critical insights that changemakers ought to consider in their attempt to lead and manage cocreation processes and enhance their impact. The chapter also addresses three crucial challenges to the advent of a sustainable future: the need to rethink the assumptions of mainstream economics, the need to secure political stability in times of rapid societal change; and the demand for the deepening democracy. Finally, the chapter argues that local efforts to build a sustainable future will only succeed if key economic, political, and democratic challenges are effectively dealt with at the global and national levels.

The most prominent and persistent problems of our global monetary system are instability and imbalances. We propose an international monetary model to solve these problems while at the same time move the model closer to Maqāṣid Sharīʿah (objectives of Sharīʿah). We name this an organic global monetary model or abbreviated as OGM. OGM is an international monetary model directly built on the national monetary system of each member country so that the two can co-exist.

Model design, theory and literature.

The model can eliminate interest rates at the central bank level, create non-tradable international money, and make a more stable international monetary system.

Original.

This study aims to investigate the suitability of a multi-step prototyping strategy for producing pneumatic rotary vane actuators (RVAs) for the development of lightweight robots and actuation systems.

RVAs typically have cast aluminum housings and injection-molded seals that consist of hard thermoplastic cores and soft elastomeric overmolds. Using a combination of additive manufacturing (AM), computer numerical control (CNC) machining and elastomer molding, a conventionally manufactured standard RVA was replicated. The standard housing design was modified, and polymeric replicas were obtained by selective laser sintering (SLS) or PolyJet (PJ) printing and subsequent CNC milling. Using laser-sintered molds, actuator seals were replicated by overmolding laser-sintered polyamide cores with silicone (SIL) and polyurethane (PU) elastomers. The replica RVAs were subjected to a series of leakage, friction and durability experiments.

The AM-based prototyping strategy described is suitable for producing functional and reliable RVAs for research and product development. In a representative durability experiment, the RVAs in this study endured between 40,000 and 1,000,000 load cycles. Frictional torques were around 0.5 Nm, which is 10% of the theoretical torque at 6 bar and comparable to that of the standard RVA. Models and parameters are provided for describing the velocity-dependent frictional torque. Leakage experiments at 10,000 load cycles and 6 bar differential pressure showed that PJ housings exhibit lower leakage values (6.8 L/min) than laser-sintered housings (15.2 L/min), and PU seals exhibit lower values (8.0 l/min) than SIL seals (14.0 L/min). Combining PU seals with PJ housings led to an initial leakage of 0.4 L/min, which increased to only 1.2 L/min after 10,000 load cycles. Overall, the PU material used was more difficult to process but also more abrasion- and tear-resistant than the SIL elastomer.

More work is needed to understand individual cause–effect relationships between specific design features and system behavior.

To date, pneumatic RVAs have been manufactured by large-scale production technologies. The absence of suitable prototyping strategies has limited the available range to fixed sizes and has thus complicated the use of RVAs in research and product development. This paper proves that functional pneumatic RVAs can be produced by using more accessible manufacturing technologies and provides the tools for prototyping of application-specific RVAs.

We study the contemporaneous effects of US monetary policy normalization on African stock market using panel data from six African countries.

Daily data from May 1, 2013 to December 31, 2018 were used in order to accommodate the announcement effects since the US monetary policy normalization announcement was made in May 2013, while the rate hike was in December 2015. The study used the FE, RE and PMG models.

The results revealed that US 10-year bond yield and Treasury bill rate shocks negatively affect stock prices in Africa. S$P500 shock positively affects African stock prices.The result revealed that the integration of African financial market to the global financial market is a major source of vulnerability. The finding that US Treasury bill rate is a major depressant of the African stock prices reveals the short-termism of foreign polio inflows into African economies.

We provide inexorably insight into the interplay of financial systems globally. It can be useful for the purposes of generalization in developing economies in the shape of African countries. More so, this study could be replicated in another economic bloc or region with the aim of further exposing the far-reaching spillover effects of the US monetary policy normalization.

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight.

This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature.

Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights.

To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk.

While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making.

Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.