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1 – 10 of 29Overconfidence bias is considered to be a very influential decision-making bias in the business environment. This paper aims to identify the susceptibility of management…
Abstract
Purpose
Overconfidence bias is considered to be a very influential decision-making bias in the business environment. This paper aims to identify the susceptibility of management accountants to overconfidence-related overplacement bias and to determine its pervasiveness among these professionals.
Design/methodology/approach
Two international samples of management accountants were surveyed using overplacement bias elicitation questions. The hypothesis that bias susceptibility varies between management accountants in different hierarchical employment positions was tested employing binary logistic regression.
Findings
Management accountants are found to be susceptible to overplacement bias, yet its pervasiveness among the samples is similar to other sample populations in comparable studies. Management accountants in the position of Chief Financial Officer (CFO) were found to be more susceptible to overplacement bias than their colleagues in other management accountant and business management positions.
Research limitations/implications
The use of convenience sampling represents a limitation of the research.
Practical implications
The findings confirm that there is a need for syllabi and continual professional development projects to educate management accountants on this bias. CFOs are especially at risk of being overconfident, which may not be in the best interest of the business.
Originality/value
This is the first paper to assess overplacement bias in management accountants as a group of decision-makers, especially within the context of their increasing involvement in business decision-making.
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Cagri Hamurcu and Hayriye Dilek Hamurcu
In this study, it is investigated whether narcissistic tendencies can predict financial literacy overconfidence.
Abstract
Purpose
In this study, it is investigated whether narcissistic tendencies can predict financial literacy overconfidence.
Design/methodology/approach
Financial literacy overconfidence is analyzed under these three subcategories: overestimation, overplacement and overprecision, according to individual's self-perception of his/her own financial literacy. In order to evaluate narcissistic tendencies, the Turkish version of the Structured Clinical Interview for the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders Axis II (SCID II) Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) is used. To measure the financial literacy overestimation, overplacement and overprecision biases, a multistaged measurement process designed specially on basic and advanced financial literacy is implemented.
Findings
The current study provides strong evidence that narcissistic tendencies are predictors of financial literacy overestimation, overplacement and overprecision biases. These tendencies in men are greater than in women. Evaluated risk factors of being exposed to these biases among people who have narcissistic tendencies are found to be greater than among people who do not have those tendencies. Due to a particular exposure of narcissistic tendencies, the probability of financial literacy overprecision bias has the highest rate among the others, and it is followed by overestimation and overplacement bias.
Originality/value
This is the first study that measures overconfidence under three subcategories of overestimation, overplacement and overprecision, according to financial literacy. For this reason, it is believed that these results provide valuable evidence in favor of the relation between overconfidence in finance and narcissistic tendencies.
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Decision-making biases play substantial roles in entrepreneurs' decisions and the fate of entrepreneurial enterprises, as well. Previous studies have assumed all entrepreneurs are…
Abstract
Purpose
Decision-making biases play substantial roles in entrepreneurs' decisions and the fate of entrepreneurial enterprises, as well. Previous studies have assumed all entrepreneurs are homogeneous in their proneness to biases, therefore inadvertently creating a crucial research gap by ignoring the role of business experience in the genesis of biases. Furthermore, there is a lack of research on women entrepreneurs' decision-making biases. Thus, this paper's main objective is to explore two influential biases of overconfidence and over-optimism in novice and habitual women entrepreneurs.
Design/methodology/approach
The data for this study were collected by conducting semi-structured interviews with 21 Iranian novice and habitual women entrepreneurs active in four high-tech sectors of biotech, nanotech, aerospace and advanced medicine. The gathered data were analyzed by thematic analysis.
Findings
According to the findings, while habitual entrepreneurs are prone to all three types of overconfidence (overestimation, overplacement and overprecision) and over-optimism, novice entrepreneurs do not show any signs of overplacement or overprecision.
Practical implications
There are certain valuable implications resulting from this study that could be of use for not only future researchers in the field of entrepreneurial decision-making and women entrepreneurship but also for women entrepreneurs running entrepreneurial enterprises, especially small businesses.
Originality/value
This paper offers certain novel contributions to the field of entrepreneurship by not only exploring biases in women entrepreneurs exclusively but also scrutinizing biases in novice (first-time) and habitual (experienced) entrepreneurs comparatively.
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This meta-analysis reviews and summarizes the results of 34 studies to investigate the relationship between overconfidence and financial decision-making.
Abstract
Purpose
This meta-analysis reviews and summarizes the results of 34 studies to investigate the relationship between overconfidence and financial decision-making.
Design/methodology/approach
A correlation meta-analysis was conducted with three moderators of the relationship between overconfidence and financial decision-making examined: the type of overconfidence construct, the type of overconfidence measuring method and the type of financial decision-making.
Findings
It was found that the effect of overconfidence on financial decision-making was significant, but the magnitude of this effect was low. Additionally, indirect measures of overconfidence showed to have stronger effect than direct measures, and the overconfidence was mostly related to investment, followed by trading and innovativeness.
Originality/value
This was the first attempt to meta-analytically integrate results concerning the relationship between overconfidence and financial decision-making. Although overconfidence is described as a keystone for understanding financial decision-making, it was shown that it has rather limited effect on individuals' financial decisions. The findings suggest that indirect measures increase the overall effect and may cause the overvaluation of overconfidence in literature. The results call for more rigorous and consistent conceptualization of overconfidence in behavioral research.
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Paulo Antonelli-Filho, Aureliano Angel Bressan, Kelmara Mendes Vieira and Ani Caroline Grigion Potrich
In this work, the authors conduct an online survey to evaluate how Sensation Seeking and Overconfidence influences the transaction volume of day traders in Brazil.
Abstract
Purpose
In this work, the authors conduct an online survey to evaluate how Sensation Seeking and Overconfidence influences the transaction volume of day traders in Brazil.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors conducted a survey to gather the primary data. They applied linear regressions between the variables, and then the stepwise technique in order to eliminate the ones with the least explanatory power.
Findings
The authors found that the aggregated trace Sensation Seeking did not positively influence the trading volume of day traders, but some of its facets did, like Thrill and Adventure Seeking and Boredom Susceptibility/Impulsivity. For the Overconfidence bias, only its Overplacement form showed a positive effect on the transaction volume of day traders, while Overestimation and Miscalibration did not.
Originality/value
This is the first study that seeks to identify the relationship of Sensation Seeking and Overconfidence, considering their different facets and forms, in a more homogeneous sample of day traders, which have mostly speculative reasons for trading. Its results reveal the multidimensional characteristics of the Sensation Seeking and Overconfidence behavioral aspects and lighten some of the motivations for day traders to overtrade.
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This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoint practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoint practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies.
Design/methodology/approach
This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context.
Findings
Habitual entrepreneurs are prone to all three types of overconfidence (overestimation, overplacement and overprecision) and to overoptimism. Novice entrepreneurs are prone to one type of overconfidence (overestimation) and to overoptimism.
Originality/value
The briefing saves busy executives, strategists and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.
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Omid Soleymanzadeh and Bahman Hajipour
The purpose of this study is to address why managers enter the excessive market. A comparison of the facts and perceptions of entrants relative to success in the market shows that…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to address why managers enter the excessive market. A comparison of the facts and perceptions of entrants relative to success in the market shows that many entrants are confident about the viability of their businesses and enter the market. Accordingly, the authors simulate market entry decisions to detect behavioral biases.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors adapted the entry decisions simulation method, which is supported by the theoretical foundations of signal detection theory (SDT) and signaling theory. The simulation model is implemented on the Anaconda platform and written in Python 3.
Findings
The results of this study suggest that overestimation relates to excess market entry. Also, the proportion of excess entry under difficult conditions is always higher than under easy conditions.
Practical implications
This research helps managers and firms think about their and their competitors' abilities and evaluate them before entering the market. Policymakers and practitioners can also design programs such as experiential learning to help entrants assess their skills.
Originality/value
So far, no research has investigated the role of overconfidence under different market conditions. Accordingly, this study contributes to the current market entry literature by disentangling the debate between absolute and relative confidence and by considering the role of task difficulty.
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Simona Mormile, Gabriella Piscopo and Paola Adinolfi
The purpose of this study, which is grounded in decision-making theory, is to explore whether the occurrence of meaningful coincidences can positively influence executive…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study, which is grounded in decision-making theory, is to explore whether the occurrence of meaningful coincidences can positively influence executive confidence during periods of crisis.
Design/methodology/approach
Through a qualitative study with 24 interviews, this study focuses on Italian hospitality facilities in the Campania Region of southern Italy to explore how an executive confidence led by meaningful coincidences can influence managerial decisions during crisis situations. Data are analyzed through a deductive coding for qualitative analysis.
Findings
The framework proposes the connection by coincidences and confidence, emphasizing the process through which meaningful coincidences can positively influence executive confidence and managerial decision-making. The insights that emerge suggest a number of positive and beneficial aspects for decision-making during a period of crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study in the literature aimed at investigating, by means of qualitative methodologies, the positive outcomes of executive confidence in decision-making led by meaningful coincidences during crisis periods in the specific context of the Italian hospitality industry.
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Jose Luis Arquero, Carmen Fernandez-Polvillo and Trevor Hassall
Despite the institutional calls to include the development of non-technical skills as objectives in accounting curriculum and the attempts to do so, a gap between the level of…
Abstract
Purpose
Despite the institutional calls to include the development of non-technical skills as objectives in accounting curriculum and the attempts to do so, a gap between the level of skills exhibited by graduates and those needed to succeed as a professional is still perceived. One of the possible causes could be students' overconfidence, defined as a very optimistic assessment of their own abilities. The main objective of the paper is to assess the existence of overconfidence.
Design/methodology/approach
Two samples, students and employers were surveyed regarding the exhibited level of accounting graduates in a set of 22 non-technical skills, highlighted as relevant in the literature. This enabled a comparison of the opinions of employers with the perceptions of students concerning the demonstrated level of such skills.
Findings
The results of this study support the existence of students' overconfidence. In all the skills students score their ability higher than employers do with those differences being statistically significant in 21 out of 22 skills. Employers who are in closer contact with entry level accountants perceive even lower exhibited skills levels in graduates.
Research limitations/implications
Overconfident students would be less motivated to actively participate in activities designed to improve skills resulting in underachievement and in lower performance. This low performance in highly valued skills could potentially harm their employability.
Originality/value
Although the literature focussing on non-technical skills in accounting is prolific there are few papers comparing the views of employers and students, and there are no previous studies focussing on overconfidence.
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Research has found that stereotypes affect occupational choices, but there has been almost no research on how they specifically affect the choice of becoming an entrepreneur. This…
Abstract
Research has found that stereotypes affect occupational choices, but there has been almost no research on how they specifically affect the choice of becoming an entrepreneur. This study bridges different fields of research by combining theories on entrepreneurial intent, self-esteem, and stereotypes. The author argues that in situations of insufficient information individuals assess prospective careers in commercial and social entrepreneurship by means of stereotypes, and the author is the first to explore the influence of commercial and social entrepreneurial stereotypes on an individual’s intention to start a commercial (for-profit) or social (not for-profit) venture. The author uses the framework outlined by the stereotype content model to disclose the existence of distinct stereotypes for commercial and social entrepreneurs exist and, thereafter, the author analyzes the influences of both entrepreneurial stereotypes on the specific startup intentions. The author test the hypotheses with unique survey data from a sample of German non-entrepreneurs which reveals that commercial entrepreneurs are seen as competent but cold, whereas social entrepreneurs are regarded as warm but incompetent. Using structural equation modeling and multi-group analysis, the data implies that higher levels of perceived warmth and competence of commercial entrepreneurs have a positive indirect effect on commercial startup intentions. No such effect was found for social startup intentions; however, the results indicate that a higher societal status of social entrepreneurs exerts a positive indirect impact on the intention to start a social business. The author discusses the practical implications of our approach and point out avenues for future research.
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