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Article
Publication date: 21 September 2015

Sanjay Sehgal and Kanu Jain

Momentum is an unresolved puzzle for the financial economists. The purpose of this paper is to dissect the sources of momentum profits and investigate the possible role played by…

Abstract

Purpose

Momentum is an unresolved puzzle for the financial economists. The purpose of this paper is to dissect the sources of momentum profits and investigate the possible role played by the macro-economic variables in explaining them.

Design/methodology/approach

The data for 493 companies that form part of Bombay Stock Exchange 500 index in India is used for calculating 6-6 momentum profits. Profits from the strategy are regressed on Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Fama-French (FF) model to see whether they can explain these profits. Guided by prior research, three methodologies are used to see the possible role played by macro-economic variables in explaining momentum payoffs.

Findings

The empirical results show that momentum profits are persistent in the intermediate horizon. CAPM and FF three-factor model fail to explain these returns. Price momentum seems to be explained in one of the model by lagged macro-economic variables which lend an economic foundation to the Carhart factor. The “Winner minus Loser” factor explains about 37 percent of abnormal returns on the winner portfolio that are missed by the FF model. The unexplained momentum profits seem to be an outcome of investors’ over-reaction to past information. Hence, the sources of price momentum profits seem to be partially behavioral and partially rational.

Practical implications

The failure of risk models in fully explaining the momentum profits may be good news for portfolio managers who are looking out for stock market arbitrage opportunities.

Originality/value

This paper fulfills an identified need to study the sources behind price momentum profits in Indian context.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 10 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 September 2011

Stephen Foerster

Behavioral researchers argue that although individuals often rely on heuristics or rules of thumb that reduce the complexity involved in predicting values, such heuristics can…

Abstract

Behavioral researchers argue that although individuals often rely on heuristics or rules of thumb that reduce the complexity involved in predicting values, such heuristics can lead to severe and systematic errors. I test this argument in an investment context by focusing on a simple heuristic whereby momentum traders are attracted to buying stocks that have recently doubled in price in anticipation of further gains. I show that such a strategy can lead to predictable disappointment for these investors and severe underperformance relative to the market (‐28% over a 4‐year period), whereas investors who avoid relying on this simple heuristic are likely to perform as expected, on average similar to the overall market. I also find that underperformance is more severe for stocks that have doubled faster. The “doubling” variable is a significant predictor of future price reversals in addition to past performance per se, as uncovered by the previous researchers.

Details

Review of Behavioural Finance, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 May 2016

Junghoon Seon

Korea Exchange has widen daily price limits from ±15% to ±30% of previous trading day’s closing price since June 15, 2015. In this paper, we examine how the event of widening…

34

Abstract

Korea Exchange has widen daily price limits from ±15% to ±30% of previous trading day’s closing price since June 15, 2015. In this paper, we examine how the event of widening price limits affect price discovery process over the course of trading day. In order to conduct this investigation, we compare price efficiency during such price discovery before and after the event. The changes that has occurred after the event can be summarized as follows: First, an analysis on full-sample indicates that price efficiency is maintained over the course of a trading, while it is aggravated temporary in two early intervals. Second, an analysis on sub-samples sorted by market capitalization, shares outstanding, or share price indicates that temporary aggravation of price efficiency in some mid-intervals is observed for shares outstanding lower group and share price top group. Overall, our results suggest that evidence supporting information hypothesis is found for the whole process of price discovery over the course of a trading day, though evidence supporting over-reaction hypothesis is found in some intervals or some types of stocks.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies, vol. 24 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2713-6647

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 October 2011

Patricia L. Chelley‐Steeley and James M. Steeley

On 29 January 2001, Euronext LIFFE introduced single security futures contracts on a range of global companies. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact that the…

Abstract

Purpose

On 29 January 2001, Euronext LIFFE introduced single security futures contracts on a range of global companies. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact that the introduction of these futures contracts had on the behaviour of opening and closing UK equity returns.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper models the price discovery process using the Amihud and Mendelson partial adjustment model which can be estimated using a Kalman filter.

Findings

Empirical results show that during the pre‐futures period both opening and closing returns under‐react to new information. After the introduction of futures contracts opening returns over‐react. A rise in the partial adjustment coefficient also takes place for closing returns but this is not large enough to cause over‐reaction.

Originality/value

This is the first study to examine the impact of a single security futures contract on the speed of spot market price discovery.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 28 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 30 November 2012

Byung Jin Kang

This study investigates the over- and under-reacting behavior of USD/KRW OTC currency option investors from the year of 2006 to 2011. Using the empirical testing models suggested…

9

Abstract

This study investigates the over- and under-reacting behavior of USD/KRW OTC currency option investors from the year of 2006 to 2011. Using the empirical testing models suggested by Poteshman (2001), we first find that USD/KRW OTC option investors tend to under-react to the unexpected changes in instantaneous variances, which means ‘short horizon under-reaction’. Second, we find that USD/KRW OTC option market tends to slightly over-react to a long period of mostly positive (or negative) unexpected changes in instantaneous variances during the period of before global financial crisis in 2008, We find, however, that this ‘long horizon over-reaction’ in the aforementioned period is not statistically significant. Third, we find that the market tends to significantly under-react, rather than over-react, to a long period of mostly positive (or negative) unexpected changes in instantaneous variances during the period of after global financial crisis in 2008. Finally, using the different empirical testing model (i.e., model-free approach), suggested by Jiang and Tian (2010), we also obtained the same empirical results, which strengthen the robustness of them.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies, vol. 20 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2713-6647

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 October 2021

George Joseph, Nimitha Aboobaker and Zakkariya K.A.

This study aims to explore the behavioral patterns of entrepreneurs, their cognitive styles and personality characteristics that can lead to a self-destructive chain of events…

1517

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the behavioral patterns of entrepreneurs, their cognitive styles and personality characteristics that can lead to a self-destructive chain of events during the transition from a fledgling business to one capable of long-term, profitable growth. This study adopts the self-regulation attitude theory to uncover the reasons for premature start-up scaling, which will help founders to study on their cognitive biases, emotions and behaviors and make efforts to do what does not come naturally to them.

Design/methodology/approach

The respondents for this qualitative study were selected from a group of entrepreneurs with extensive experience with technology start-ups that have either failed or succeeded during their development stages. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with eight participants, who were selected through snowball sampling, on the theme of understanding “How do premature scaling mistakes happen?”. Thematic analysis was used to unearth common themes.

Findings

The results of this study identified the following themes, “comparison,” “emotional over-reaction,” “impatience,” “mistaken customer priorities,” “overestimation” and “overconfidence,” which eventually leads to premature scaling. The underlying decision-making heuristics of entrepreneurs can be identified as engulfed in different cognitive biases and emotions resulting in negative behavioral patterns, as in the case of premature scaling. Of the six themes, “comparison,” “mistaken customer priorities,” “overestimation” and “overconfidence relates to cognitive bias” and “emotional over-reaction” and “impatience” relate to emotional factors.

Research limitations/implications

The study was made possible with the support of the voluntary participants chosen by purposive and snowballing data sampling. The interviewee and interviewer biases could have also crept in as part of this qualitative approach. The study pertains only to start-ups in the information technology sector and further studies need to be done to generalize the results across industries as well.

Practical implications

This early-stage underestimation of unexpected obstacles in the entrepreneurship journey necessitates a focus on the entrepreneur too, as much as the concept. In these hectic and fast-paced circumstances, aspiring entrepreneurs must be taught how to deal objectively with themselves and others, as well as think strategically. Leaders who scale do so because they take purposeful measures to overcome their weaknesses through self-discipline, soliciting advice from others and using their right to change their attitude and points of view.

Originality/value

The study frames the new approach into the entrepreneurial literature, linking it to self-regulation attitude theory and adds to the nascent literature on neuroentrepreneurship which discuss entrepreneurial cognition, decision-making, and entrepreneurial behavior. This study attempted to explore the reasons behind the premature scaling of startups on an individual level. This study is pioneering in exploring the cognitive factors underlying an entrepreneur’s decision that results in premature scaling. This study provides insights for academicians, entrepreneurs and policymakers and helps understand the cognitive journey that leads to premature scaling.

Details

Journal of Entrepreneurship in Emerging Economies, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2053-4604

Keywords

Expert briefing
Publication date: 25 May 2016

Russian leadership's preparations for possible unrest.

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB211295

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Article
Publication date: 6 July 2012

Meziane Lasfer, Sharon Xiaowen Lin and Gulnur Muradoglu

The purpose of this paper is to compare the short‐term trading behaviour of A shares owned by domestic investors and their dually‐traded B shares owned by foreign investors, after…

1340

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to compare the short‐term trading behaviour of A shares owned by domestic investors and their dually‐traded B shares owned by foreign investors, after a period of significant price change.

Design/methodology/approach

Given that the fundamentals of A and B shares are the same, the paper tests the hypothesis that both types of stocks should behave homogeneously either by exhibiting a momentum behaviour or an over‐reaction pattern. The paper relates any deviations in post‐shock stock returns to the differences in the trading patterns of foreign relative to domestic investors.

Findings

While the prices of the A shares are relatively random after the event, those of the B shares carry on increasing significantly after both positive and negative shocks. This trend is more pronounced for large firms with high liquidity, in contrast to the efficient market hypothesis expectations, which suggests that any abnormal performance should be arbitraged away sooner in a frictionless (in this case liquid) market.

Originality/value

The paper relates these results to the high level of optimism of foreign investors, which is an under‐researched area in behaviour finance.

Details

Review of Behavioural Finance, vol. 4 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 13 March 2013

Xuan Huang and Nuo Xu

In this chapter, we argue that under- and over-reaction are both parts of the price dynamics caused by investor's naïve judgmental extrapolation. We propose to use the…

Abstract

In this chapter, we argue that under- and over-reaction are both parts of the price dynamics caused by investor's naïve judgmental extrapolation. We propose to use the Holt–Winters model, a parsimonious model with two parameters, to represent investor's conservatism (anchoring) and representativeness (trending). The complexity of earning information, which is broken down into a drift, a transitory shock, and an autocorrelated permanent shock, add further volatility to the price. We explain the price dynamics caused by the interplay of the earning model and investor's naïve belief. It is further argued that empirical “underreaction” and “overreaction” differ from true under- and overreaction. The simulated results with the proposed model confirm with empirical findings on under- and overreaction.

Details

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78190-331-5

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 May 2013

Gauri Sinha

The purpose of this paper is to explain the incompatibility of anti‐money laundering (AML) and counter‐terrorist financing (CTF) measures as a hasty over‐reaction after 9/11…

1347

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explain the incompatibility of anti‐money laundering (AML) and counter‐terrorist financing (CTF) measures as a hasty over‐reaction after 9/11, focusing on the compliance burdens that this imposes on the regulated sector, most notably financial institutions.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper explains the fundamental differences between money laundering and terrorist financing. It follows the evolution of the marriage between AML and CTF measures in the USA and the UK, comparing the pre and post‐9/11 phases. Consequently, the specific legal burdens placed on financial institutions as a result of this marriage are discussed.

Findings

The paper, while recognising the importance of targeting terrorist money, contends that inherent differences exist between money laundering and terrorist financing, and fusing them together is a hasty reaction to the 9/11 attacks. It argues that the need of the hour is to focus on terrorist profiling, rather than attempting to target terrorist financing through the AML regime. It also concludes that financial institutions are unfairly burdened with the task of “suspecting” terrorist funds, while receiving little or no guidance in this respect.

Originality/value

This paper is of value to governments, regulators, and financial institutions considering the effective implementation of the AML‐CTF regime in the UK and the USA.

1 – 10 of 444