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The purpose of this study to provide a reference basis for effectively managing the risk of agrometeorological disasters in Henan Province, speeding up the establishment of a scientific and reasonable system of agrometeorological disasters prevention and reduction and guaranteeing grain security.

Firstly, according to the statistical data of areas covered by natural disaster, areas affected by natural disaster, sown area of grain crops and output of grain crops from 1979 to 2018 in Henan Province, China. We have constructed an agrometeorological disaster risk assessment system for Henan province, China, which is composed of indicators such as rate covered by natural disaster, rate affected by natural disaster, disaster coefficient of variation and disaster vulnerability. The variation characteristics of agrometeorological disasters in Henan Province and their effects on agricultural production are analyzed. Secondly, the grey relational analysis method is used to analyze the relation degree between the main agrometeorological disaster factors and the output of grain crops of Henan Province. Based on the grey BP neural network, the rate covered by various natural disaster and the rate affected by various natural disaster are simulated and predicted.

The results show that: (1) the freeze injury in the study period has a greater contingency, the intensity of the disaster is also greater, followed by floods. Droughts, windstorm and hail are Henan Province normal disasters. (2) According to the degree of disaster vulnerability, the ability to resist agricultural disasters in Henan Province is weak. (3) During the study period, drought and flood are the key agrometeorological disasters affecting the grain output of Henan Province, China.

The systematic analysis and evaluation of agrometeorological disasters are conducive to the sustainable development of agriculture, and at the same time, it can provide appropriate and effective measures for the assessment and reduction of economic losses and risks.

By calculating and analyzing the rate covered by natural disaster, the rate affected by natural disaster, disaster coefficient of variation and disaster vulnerability of crops in Henan Province of China and using grey BP neural network simulation projections for the rate covered by various natural disaster and the rate affected by various natural disaster, the risk assessment system of agrometeorological disasters in Henan is constructed, which provides a scientific basis for systematic analysis and evaluation of agrometeorological disasters.

This study aims to examine the effects of climate change and agricultural technologies on crop production in Vietnam for the period 1990–2018.

Several econometric techniques – such as the augmented Dickey–Fuller, Phillips–Perron, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, variance decomposition method (VDM) and impulse response function (IRF) are used for the empirical analysis.

The results of the ARDL bounds test confirm the significant dynamic relationship among the variables under consideration, with a significance level of 1%. The primary findings indicate that the average annual temperature exerts a negative influence on crop yield, both in the short term and in the long term. The utilization of fertilizer has been found to augment crop productivity, whereas the application of pesticides has demonstrated the potential to raise crop production in the short term. Moreover, both the expansion of cultivated land and the utilization of energy resources have played significant roles in enhancing agricultural output across both in the short term and in the long term. Furthermore, the robustness outcomes also validate the statistical importance of the factors examined in the context of Vietnam.

This study provides persuasive evidence for policymakers to emphasize advancements in intensive agriculture as a means to mitigate the impacts of climate change. In the research, the authors use average annual temperature as a surrogate measure for climate change, while using fertilizer and pesticide usage as surrogate indicators for agricultural technologies. Future research can concentrate on the impact of ICT, climate change (specifically pertaining to maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation), and agricultural technological improvements that have an impact on cereal production.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine how climate change and technology effect crop output in Vietnam from 1990 to 2018. Various econometrics tools, such as ARDL modeling, VDM and IRF, are used for estimation.

This paper aims to investigate the impacts of climate change on the People's Republic of China's (PRC) grain output using rural household survey data. The paper highlights the regional differences of impacts by estimating output elasticities (with respect to climate change) for different grain crops and different regions.

The paper uses production function to investigate the responses of grain output to climate variables as well as other traditional input variables. The use of production function approach allows us to do away with the competitive land market assumption as required in the Ricardian approach. The paper will use interaction terms of climate variables and regional dummies to capture the regional differences of climate change impact on grain crops.

The results indicate that the overall negative climate impacts on the PRC's grain output range from −0.31 to −2.69 percent in 2030 and from −1.93 to −3.07 percent in 2050, under different emission scenarios. The impacts, however, differ substantially for different grain crops and different regions.

This paper addresses the limitations of existing literature by highlighting regional differences and crop varieties using the most recent nationwide rural household survey data. The results indicate pronounced regional differences and crop differences in the impacts of climate changes on PRC's grain output.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impacts of future climate change and the corresponding adaptation activities on grain production and its regional distribution in China.

This paper applied the Chinese Agricultural Policy Analysis model, in combination with the findings from agronomic literature with highly detailed agricultural census data, to conduct equilibrium analysis under alternative impact (seasonal drought and climate warming) scenarios and adaptation scenarios (promoting water-saving irrigation, introducing new varieties, and the integrated) associated with climate change.

Simulation results indicate that climate change-induced seasonal drought and the resulting yield reduction will incur substantial losses to China’s grain production (by ~8 percent at a national scale). The application of water saving techniques can be an effective solution to seasonal drought. Introducing new varieties will increase the combination of promoting water-saving irrigation and new variety adoption will increase combination of promoting water-saving irrigation and new variety adoption constitute an effective approach to offsetting the negative effects of climate change on grain production.

Simulation results indicate that climate change-induced seasonal drought and the resulting sown area reduction will incur substantial losses to China’s grain production by approximately 8 percent, despite farmers’ adaptation activities of switching from water use-intensive crops to drought-tolerant crops to mitigate this negative effect. The application of water saving techniques is an effective solution to seasonal drought; it can lead to a nationwide increase in the sown area by 3.48 percent and in the grain production by 4.15 percent. Introducing new varieties will increase grain outputs and change the spatial distribution of crop production across the country. The combination of promoting water-saving irrigation and new variety adoption will increase the national grain production by 19.6 percent, and thus constitute an effective approach to offsetting the negative effects of climate change on grain production.

Results from this study provide practical implications formulate strategies in response to climate change. Central government should reinforce the policies such as new varieties promotion and improve the subsidy method to guide the introduction of new varieties.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the grain production implications of alternative designs for China’s grain subsidy policy. In particular, the authors examine three subsidy designs including area-based subsidy, quantity-based subsidy and production-cost-based subsidy.

To carry out the analysis, the authors develop a Chinese agricultural sector model (CASM) and an econometric, policy action–farmer response summary model. The CASM is used under a wide variety of subsidy level and basis experiments to generate pseudo data on farmer reactions to subsidies. Then a summary function model was estimated over those pseudo data that quantitatively summarized modeled farmer responses to different grain subsidy schemes. In turn, the summary functions were used to optimize the subsidy level such that it maximized grain production both within and across the area-based, quantity-based and cost-based subsidies. Regional implications were also developed.

The authors found that the production-quantity-based subsidy is the most cost-effective in stimulating grain production among the subsidy schemes. The authors also argue that scheme complies with WTO regulations regarding product-specific support. The authors found that the areas where grain production was most affected were the traditional grain-producing regions.

To the authors’ knowledge the authors have not seen a study of the Chinese grain subsidy program context that examined the effects of alternative subsidy schemes, nor one that developed estimates of the optimal subsidy level. In addition, the methodology is unique employing bottom-up, regionally disaggregated, sector modeling coupled with an aggregate pseudo data based summary function approach providing a new, original approach for analyzing agricultural policy design.

This paper attempts to understand how the interaction of natural disasters and human behaviour during wartime led to famines in three regions under imperial control around the Indian Ocean. The socio-economic structure of these regions had been increasingly differentiated over the period of imperial rule, with large proportions of their populations relying on agricultural labour for their subsistence.

Before the war, food crises in each of the regions had been met by the private importation of grain from national or overseas surplus regions: the grain had been made available through a range of systems, the most complex of which was the Bengal Famine Code in which the able-bodied had to work before receiving money to buy food in the market.

During the Second World War, the loss of control of normal sources of imported grain, the destruction of shipping in the Indian Ocean (by both sides) and the military demands on internal transport systems prevented the use of traditional famine responses when natural events affected grain supply in each of the regions. These circumstances drew the governments into attempts to control their own grain markets.

The food crises raised complex ethical and practical issues for the governments charged with their solution. The most significant of these was that the British Government could have attempted to ship wheat to Bengal but, having lost naval control of the Indian Ocean in 1942 and needing warships in the Atlantic and Mediterranean in 1943 chose to ignore the needs of the people of Bengal, focussing instead on winning the war.

In each of the regions governments allowed/encouraged the balkanisation of the grain supply – at times down to the sub-district level – which at times served to produce waste and corruption, and opened the way for black markets as various groups (inside and outside government ranks) manipulated the local supply.

People were affected in different ways by the changes brought about by the war: some benefitted if their role was important to the war-effort; others suffered. The effect of this was multiplied by the way each government ‘solved’ its financial problems by – in essence – printing money.

Because of the natural events of the period, there would have been food crises in these regions without World War II, but decisions made in the light of wartime exigencies and opportunities turned crises into famines, causing the loss of millions of lives.

This study revisits the Great Canadian Grain Logistics Crisis of 2013-14 to explore the competitiveness of the country's grain exports. An approach to comprehending the dilemmas of the international grain supply chain and trade, and national logistics policy in an era of multinational corporations, draws upon the literature on global value chain analysis. This analysis identifies both the grain industry's global and local dimensions. An important literature on the 'politics’ of the supply chain is also called into play to discuss who controls what aspects. This task of interpreting the various steps in Canada's grain logistics chain recognizes the key economic actors - producers, grain companies, railway companies, port terminal operators and export buyers - and political struggles between them as they each seek to maximize their self-interest. Policy implications for streamlining logistics operations are drawn from identifying where changes in the supply chain arrangements have gained or lost opportunities in export markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.

The purpose of this paper evaluates the effects of the Great Western Development (GWD) policy on agricultural intensification, land use, agricultural production and rural poverty in western China.

The authors collect county-level data on land use, input application, grain crop production, income, poverty and geophysical characteristics for 1996–2005 and use a quasi-natural experimental design of difference-in-differences (DD) in the empirical analysis.

Results suggest that the GWD policy significantly increased the grain crop production in western China. This increase resulted from higher yield, with increased fertilizer use and agricultural electricity consumption per hectare, and more land allocated to grow grain crops. The policy also increased land-use concentration, reduced crop diversity and alleviated rural poverty in western China.

This paper makes three contributions. First, the authors add to the growing literature on the GWD policy by evaluating its effects on farm household decisions and exploring the mechanisms and broad socioeconomic impacts in western China. Second, the authors take advantage of a quasi-natural experimental design to improve the identification strategy where input use, land allocation, production and off-farm labor participation are all endogenous in a farm household. Third, the authors explore a long list of variables within one integrated dataset to present a comprehensive picture of the impact of the GWD policy.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impacts of farmland renting-in on planted grain acreage.

A survey data of five counties were analyzed with the two-stage ordinary least squares model.

Households renting-in land trended to plant more maize, and the more land was rented by a household the more maize was planted, while wheat acreage showed non-response to farmland renting-in.

Overall, the analysis suggests that policy makers should be prepared for different changing trends of grain crop acreage across the nation as farmland transfer continues. Future research should pay attention to the effect of farmland transfer on agricultural productivity and rural household income growth.

As the Chinese Government is promoting larger-scale and more mechanized farms as a way of protecting grain security, it is important to understand whether farmland renting-in will reduce planted grain acreage. This study provides empirical evidence showing the answer to that question may differ across different regions and depend on the particular grain crop in question.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the historical pattern of environmental cost due to grain production in China and to provide further implications of technologies and policies for the transformation of China’s agricultural development toward sustainable intensification.

The data sets about grain production, arable land and chemical fertilizer use in China were collected from FAO, NBSC, and IFA. Greenhouse gas emissions were estimated using life cycle assessments. The policies concerning grain production and the environment were collected from the Ministry of Agriculture, and the State Council of China.

China has produced enough food to feed its growing population, but has neglected the resource-environmental costs of grain production since 1978. Consequently, China’s grain production is always accompanied with a high cost of resource and environment sustainability. However, from 2006 to 2015, the growth rate of grain production has surpassed that of chemical fertilizer consumption, resulting in improvement in nutrient use efficiency and decreasing trends of environmental cost for grain production. This could be partially attributed to technology innovations, such as Soil-Testing and Fertilizer-Recommendations (STFR), soil quality and crop management improvement, and so on, and policy supports (policies of STFR, soil quality improvement, and high-yield construction). This indicated that China’s grain production is starting to transform from high-input and high-output model to “less for more.”

This study is the first to determine the detailed, historical role of technological innovation and agri-environmental policy on the sustainability of grain production in China. The findings should have significant implications for technology and policy for the transformation of China’s agriculture development to sustainable intensification.