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1 – 10 of over 3000
Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 December 2019

Baoping Ren and Wei Jie

Constant or decreasing returns and increasing returns to scale are two kinds of mechanism in economic growth. The goal of supply-side structural reform is to promote the…

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Abstract

Purpose

Constant or decreasing returns and increasing returns to scale are two kinds of mechanism in economic growth. The goal of supply-side structural reform is to promote the establishment of the mechanism with increasing returns to scale. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper argues that the overall economic structure of the developing economy has been divided into the sector of constant or decreasing returns to scale and the sector of increasing returns to scale due to the dual economic structure. Among them, the supply-side structural reform is mainly to reduce the sector of decreasing returns to scale and increase the sector of increasing returns to scale. Based on the hypothesis of such two-sector economic structure in the supply side of developing economies and on the industrial data, this paper empirically tests the returns to scale of China’s supply structure. The result suggests that so far the sector of constant or decreasing returns to scale dominates the supply structure of China’s economic growth, which results in the state of decreasing returns to scale in China’s overall economy.

Findings

Therefore, to realize the long-term sustained growth and transformation of the development pattern of China’s economy, the authors must carry out the supply-side structural reform, vigorously develop the modern industrial sectors characterized by modern knowledge and technology, and promote the development of an innovation-driven economy.

Originality/value

Besides, the authors must accelerate the transformation from traditional industrial sectors to modern industrial sectors, actively promote China’s industrial structure toward rationalization and high gradation, as well as build a modern industrial system so as to facilitate the formation of the mechanism of increasing returns to scale and accelerate the transformation of the driving force of China’s economic growth.

Details

China Political Economy, vol. 2 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2516-1652

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 7 November 2019

Eamonn O'Connor, Stephen Hynes, Amaya Vega and Natasha Evers

The purpose of this paper is to examine performance change in the Irish state-owned port sector over the 2000-2016 period using a case study approach.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine performance change in the Irish state-owned port sector over the 2000-2016 period using a case study approach.

Design/methodology/approach

For analysis, qualitative sources are used to construct an explanatory account for the quantitative measures of productivity, profitability and traffic shift-share change across the major ports within the system.

Findings

The results show that overall change in performance largely follows that of the macro-economic performance of the region, characterised by pre-recession growth, decline during the recession and post-recession recovery. Across the ports, however, there was a notable divergence in performance post-recession. Identified factors affecting performance change across the period include demand-side structural change, labour rationalisation and degree of private sector participation.

Originality/value

This study addresses a gap in the formal evaluation of port performance in Ireland. The study further demonstrates the potential of in-depth case study analysis for uncovering insights into the drivers of performance across a number of dimensions, thus allowing for the contextualisation of results. The study of a small number of cases enables the use of rich qualitative sources to create strong narratives, which combined with quantitative measures of performance, can lead to new insights.

Details

Maritime Business Review, vol. 4 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2397-3757

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 June 2020

Mohammed M. Elgammal, Fatma Ehab Ahmed and David G. McMillan

The purpose of this paper is to consider the economic information content within several popular stock market factors and to the extent to which their movements are both explained…

3735

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to consider the economic information content within several popular stock market factors and to the extent to which their movements are both explained by economic variables and can explain future output growth.

Design/methodology/approach

Using US stock portfolios from 1964 to 2019, the authors undertake three related exercises: whether a set of common factors contain independent predictive ability for stock returns, what economic and market variables explain movements in the factors and whether stock market factors have predictive power for future output growth.

Findings

The results show that several of the considered factors do not contain independent information for stock returns. Further, most of these factors are neither explained by economic conditions nor they provide any predictive power for future output growth. Thus, they appear to contain very little economic content. However, the results suggest that the impact of these factors is more prominent with higher macroeconomic risk (contractionary regime).

Research limitations/implications

The stock market factors are more likely to reflect existing market conditions and exhibit a weaker relation with economic conditions and do not act as a window on future behavior.

Practical implications

Fama and French three-factor model still have better explanations for stock returns and economic information more than any other models.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to the literature by examining whether a selection of factors provides unique information when modelling stock returns data. It also investigates what variables can predict movements in the stock market factors. Third, it examines whether the factors exhibit a link with subsequent economic output. This should establish whether the stock market factors contain useful information for stock returns and the macroeconomy or whether the significance of the factor is a result of chance. The results in this paper should advance our understanding of asset price movement and the links between the macroeconomy and financial markets and, thus, be of interest to academics, investors and policy-makers.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 37 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 11 October 2021

Pham Dinh Long, Bui Quang Hien and Pham Thi Bich Ngoc

This study focuses on analyzing the relation between money supply, inflation and output in Vietnam and China.

2870

Abstract

Purpose

This study focuses on analyzing the relation between money supply, inflation and output in Vietnam and China.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the error correction model and the vector autoregression model (ECM and VAR) and the canonical cointegration regression (CCR), the study shows similar patterns of these variable relations between the two economies.

Findings

The study points out the difference in the estimated coefficients between the two countries with different economic scales. While inflation in Vietnam is strongly influenced by expected inflation and output growth, inflation in China is strongly influenced by money supply growth and output growth.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical and comparative research on the relation between money supply, inflation and output for Vietnam and China. The study demonstrates that the relationship between money supply, inflation and output is still true in case of transition economies.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 3 February 2023

Jing Li

The aggregate index and per capita index have different meanings for some countries or regions. CO2 emissions per capita matters for China because of its huge population…

Abstract

Purpose

The aggregate index and per capita index have different meanings for some countries or regions. CO2 emissions per capita matters for China because of its huge population. Therefore, this study aims to deepen the understanding of Kuznets curve from the perspective of CO2 emissions per capita. In this study, mathematical formulas will be derived and verified.

Design/methodology/approach

First, this study verified the existing problems with the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) through multiple regression. Second, this study developed a theoretical derivation with the Solow model and balanced growth and explained the underlying principles of the EKC’s shape. Finally, this study quantitatively analyzed the influencing factors.

Findings

The CO2 emission per capita is related to the per capita GDP, nonfossil energy and total factor productivity (TFP). Empirical results support the EKC hypothesis. When the proportion of nonfossil and TFP increase by 1%, the per capita CO2 decrease by 0.041 t and 1.79 t, respectively. The growth rate of CO2 emissions per capita is determined by the difference between the growth rate of output per capita and the sum of efficiency and structural growth rates. To achieve the CO2 emission intensity target and economic growth target, the growth rate of per capita CO2 emissions must fall within the range of [−0.92%, 6.1%].

Originality/value

Inspired by the EKC and balanced growth, this study investigated the relationships between China’s environmental variables (empirical analysis) and developed a theoretical background (macro-theoretical derivation) through formula-based derivation, the results of which are universally valuable and provide policymakers with a newly integrated view of emission reduction and balanced development to address the challenges associated with climate change caused by energy.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 9 November 2021

Thuy Hang Duong

Inflation targeting has increasingly become a popular monetary framework since its first introduction in New Zealand at the beginning of 1990. However, the causality effects of…

3363

Abstract

Purpose

Inflation targeting has increasingly become a popular monetary framework since its first introduction in New Zealand at the beginning of 1990. However, the causality effects of this policy on economic performance, particularly in periods of economic turmoil remain controversial. Thus, this paper re-examines the treatment effect of inflation targeting on two important macro indicators which are inflation rate and output growth with the focus on emerging market economies. The global financial crisis, which is known as the great recession since the last decade, is investigated as an exogenous shock to test for the effectiveness of this popular regime.

Design/methodology/approach

The difference-in-difference approach in the fixed-model is employed for this investigation using a balanced panel data of 54 countries with 15 inflation-targeting countries for the period 2002 to 2010.

Findings

The examination finds that there is no significant difference in terms of the inflation rate and gross domestic product growth over the whole research period between the treatment and control groups. However, the outcome suggests that emerging economies can control the increase in inflation rate when the economy has to cope with the exogenous uncertainties.

Research limitations/implications

This finding indicates important policy implications for central banks in many countries.

Originality/value

Inflation targeting can help emerging countries to reduce an increase in inflation rate in the crisis period without many trade-offs in the growth of output.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. 6 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 14 March 2024

Rakesh Kumar

India started economic reforms at a rapid pace to catch up the world economy by following the services-led-growth model during the post-liberalisation period. Over the years, the…

Abstract

Purpose

India started economic reforms at a rapid pace to catch up the world economy by following the services-led-growth model during the post-liberalisation period. Over the years, the growing unemployment rate posits a re-look into the dynamics of growth model for wider work force participation. In this backdrop, the paper aims to examine the dynamics of structural changes in employment pattern in view of economic growth led by services-led growth model in India.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs a non-linear autoregressive model (NARDL) to examine the effect of the growth rates in three broad economic sectors namely agriculture and allied, services and industry on work force participation representing the employment opportunities in India.

Findings

The results highlight that the rapid expansion of the service sector has not occurred with enough employment opportunities by the same rate. By contrast, the growth in the industrial sector significantly creates employment opportunities in the short and long run. These results support the industry led growth model over the services for sustainable and inclusive economic growth in the country.

Research limitations/implications

The study relies on combined labour force participation rates rather than gender-specific rates. Further, the regulatory, working conditions and economic incentives may affect the gender-specific engagement of the labour force in three broad sectors.

Practical implications

The results offer important insight into changing patterns in employment with policy lessons. A wider workforce force participation calls for expansion of manufacturing activities through pro-industry programmes.

Originality/value

The study makes pioneer efforts to examine the dynamics of labour force participation with respect to the growth of three broad economic sectors of the Indian economy. The results provide new insights with policy implications for the changing employment pattern and policy response.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 June 2019

Sherine Al-shawarby and Mai El Mossallamy

This paper aims to estimate a New Keynesian small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Egypt using Bayesian techniques and data for the period…

6535

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to estimate a New Keynesian small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Egypt using Bayesian techniques and data for the period FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4 to assess monetary and fiscal policy interactions and their impact on economic stabilization. Outcomes of monetary and fiscal authority commitment to policy instruments, interest rate, government spending and taxes, are evaluated using Taylor-type and optimal simple rules.

Design/methodology/approach

The study extends the stylized micro-founded small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model, proposed by Lubik and Schorfheide (2007), by explicitly introducing fiscal policy behavior into the model (Fragetta and Kirsanova, 2010 and Çebi, 2011). The model is calibrated using quarterly data for Egypt on key macroeconomic variables during FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4; and Bayesian methods are used in estimation.

Findings

The results show that monetary and fiscal policy instruments in Egypt contribute to economic stability through their effects on inflation, output and debt stock. The monetary policy Taylor rule estimates reveal that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) attaches significant importance to anti-inflationary policy and (to a lesser extent) to output targeting but responds weakly to nominal exchange rate variations. CBE decisions are significantly influenced by interest rate smoothing. Egyptian fiscal policy has an important role in output and government debt stabilization. Additionally, the fiscal authority chooses pro-cyclical government spending and counter-cyclical tax policies for output stabilization. Again, past values of the fiscal instruments are influential in the evolution of the future fiscal policy-making process.

Originality/value

A few studies have examined the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in Egypt within a unified framework. The presented paper integrates the monetary and fiscal policy analysis within a unified dynamic general equilibrium open economy rational expectations framework. Without such a framework, it would not be easy to jointly analyze monetary and fiscal transmission mechanisms for output, inflation and debt. Also, it would be neither possible to contrast the outcome of monetary and fiscal authorities commitment to a simple Taylor instrument rule vis-à-vis optimal policy outcomes nor to assess the behavior of monetary and fiscal agents in macroeconomic stability in context of an active/passive policy decisions framework.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. 4 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2631-3561

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 July 2020

Javed Ahmad Bhat and Naresh Kumar Sharma

Among the many factors fueling the inflationary tendencies in an economy such as monetary shocks, structural shocks, demand shocks, external shocks and demographic changes, the…

2112

Abstract

Purpose

Among the many factors fueling the inflationary tendencies in an economy such as monetary shocks, structural shocks, demand shocks, external shocks and demographic changes, the issue of inflation (INF) has also been found to be related to fiscal policy decisions of the government. The purpose of this study is to investigate the inflationary tendencies in India particularly from the fiscal point of view. The study also examines the influence of other potential determinants such as output growth rate, interest rate, trade-openness (TO) and oil price inflation (OPI).

Design/methodology/approach

To examine the dynamic nature of association between fiscal deficit and inflation, the study applies the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) test and Breitung and Candelon (2006) test to investigate the nature of causality in time and frequency domain frameworks. In addition, to scrutinize the possibility of a long-run association, that too from an asymmetric point of view, the study applies a Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed lag model (NARDL) given by Shin et al. (2014). Finally, non-linear cumulative dynamic multipliers are used to trace the traverse between disequilibrium position of short-run and subsequent long-run equilibrium of the system.

Findings

The authors found a unidirectional causality from fiscal deficit to inflation in case of time domain analysis and no feedback causality is reported. However, in case of frequency domain design, causality from fiscal deficit to inflation is found at low frequencies only, i.e. no short-run causality is established and hence dynamic nature of the relationship between the two variables is vindicated. Using NARDL model, the results document the existence of an asymmetric long-run direct association between fiscal deficit and inflation. However, an increase in deficit is found to be more inflationary and a decrease affects the inflation with a lower magnitude. The asymmetric impact of fiscal deficit on inflation can be explained through the existence of liquidity constraints, consumption-investment downward inflexibility and the downward price stickiness. Contractionary monetary policy action is found to be more effective than an expansionary one, signifying the asymmetric influence of monetary policy actions on the inflation of India. Similarly, in a supply-constrained economy with downward price rigidity, the authors found an asymmetric impact of output growth and output decline on inflation. As regard to the trade-openness, although an asymmetry is reported, the signs refute the validation of Romer (1993) hypothesis. Finally, the impact of oil price inflation on the inflationary pressures is according to theory but the coefficients are devoid of statistical significance.

Practical implications

These results indicate some important policy recommendations. Fiscal consolidation strategy should be executed in an appreciable manner to achieve the sound fiscal health and lower INF. The disciplined fiscal strategy would also be imperative for an effective monetary policy. Monetary authorities should possess noticeable credibility to manage the macroeconomic system and policy stances should be implemented according to requirements of the economy. Growth in output should be encouraged to have two-fold benefits to the economy – reducing INF on the one hand and fiscal deficits on the other.

Originality/value

The study contributes to the existing literature in the following ways. First, taking note of dynamic nature of the relationship between these two variables, the study examined the deficit INF nexus in a dynamic and asymmetric framework. The novelty of the study is ensured by the very nature of it is the first study in case of India to identify the fiscal INF in an asymmetric configuration. The authors applied a NARDL model, given by Shin et al. (2014) to examine the existence of any cointegrating relationship in an asymmetric paradigm. Second, the nature of causality between fiscal deficit and INF has been examined in a time domain and FD framework to portray precisely the casual interactions between these two variables in the short-run and long run. The study will, therefore, enrich the existing literature along the asymmetric lines.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 25 no. 50
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 11 November 2020

Samar H. Albagoury

The relationship between economic growth performance and achieving inclusive growth, especially concerning poverty rate, is a subject of continuous argument in economic…

1435

Abstract

Purpose

The relationship between economic growth performance and achieving inclusive growth, especially concerning poverty rate, is a subject of continuous argument in economic literature. Although some argue that this relationship is deterministic, i.e. achieving economic growth will definitely reduce poverty and enhance inclusive growth, others believe that the relationship between growth and poverty is conditional, depends mainly on the status of income distribution in this country, i.e. if the growth is combined with a significant improve in distribution then it will reduce poverty.

Design/methodology/approach

Africa is a clear example of the nexus between economic growth and poverty reduction. Although many African countries manage to achieve relatively high growth rates, hit two digits in some cases, during the last decades, poverty still widely spread in those countries. Of the 30 poorest countries in the world, 24 are African countries. And about 50% of African people still live under the poverty line. Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), which could be considered as one of the fastest growing regions in Africa, is not an exception; although the region achieves relatively high growth rates, poverty and inequality are still among the region’s main development challenges.

Findings

This paper found that the economic growth rate achieved in COMESA countries could not be considered as inclusive growth as it does not combine with adequate enhancement in inclusiveness indicators. And that the structural characteristics of those countries economy and its inelasticity are the main reasons behind this inefficiency.

Originality/value

In this context, this paper aims to evaluate the effectiveness of economic growth achieved in COMESA countries in achieving inclusive growth and to identify the main factors affecting this relationship by using two steps data envelopment analysis. Although this method is originally developed to evaluate the relative economic efficiencies, the main contribution of this paper is the adaptation of data envelopment analysis to evaluate the efficiency of economic growth achieved in COMESA countries in enhancing inclusive growth dimensions such as poverty rate, inequality, unemployment, education, health, and then to identify in its second step the main indicators that could be used to explain the variation in efficiency scores.

Details

Journal of Humanities and Applied Social Sciences, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN:

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 3000